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November
2, 2006
Nearly 50,000 American Casualties
The
US Body Count in Iraq: an Analysis of Who is Dying and How
By WINSLOW T. WHEELER
In the month of October 2006, 104 Americans
in uniform died in the war in Iraq. That makes this October the
fourth most deadly month in Iraq for Americans since the war
began in March 2003. (In April 2004, 135 Americans were killed;
in November 2004 there were 137 killed; and in January 2005,
it was 107). While it is impersonal to manipulate the statistics,
it is also informative.
The Department of Defense (DOD) has made available significant
data on the dead and wounded from the war. Among others, two
particularly useful entities have analyzed DOD's and other data
to help us understand the numbers. One is the website for the Iraq Coalition
Casualty Count; another is a study released last August by
the Population Studies Center of the University of Pennsylvania:
"Mortality
of American Troops in Iraq." The material below summaries
their data (and provides additional links to them).
Total
Dead
As of Nov. 1, 2006, 2,817 Americans
have died in Iraq of all causes; 239 military personnel have
been killed from other countries (U.K.: 120; "other:"
119), for a grand total of 3,055 casualties from the coalition
forces. (See these and more data at http://icasualties.org/oif/
The data at www.icasualties.org for American military
fatalities include:
2,268 deaths from hostile fire,
which occurs in many forms; and 550 non-combat deaths.
Among the deaths resulting
from hostile fire:
improvised explosive devices
(IEDs) caused at least 998, or 35 percent of all deaths, which
exceeds all other causes.
Although the other subcategories
at www.icasulaties.org includes some causes listed more
than once and other poorly organized or unexplained entries (from
what DOD appears to have provided), other hostile fire causes
attributed in the data include:
unspecified hostile fire: 425,
or 15 percent;
small arms fire: 272, or 10
percent;
mortar attacks: 85, or 3 percent;
rocket propelled grenades (RPGs):
104, or 4 percent;
cars bombs: 76, or 3 percent;
suicide car bombs: 54, or 2
percent;
other suicide bombers: 30,
or 1 percent.
The leading cause of non-hostile deaths were vehicle accidents
(201 deaths, or 7 percent of the total). Other causes included:
Using data for the period between March 21, 2003, and March 31,
2006, the University of Pennsylvania study provides some analysis
of these numbers, as follows:
Compared to the war in Vietnam,
the chances U.S. military personnel will be killed in Iraq are
significantly lower. With 56,838 deaths over a period of 2,608,650
"person-years of exposure," the Vietnam "death
rate" was 21.8 per 1,000, compared to 3.9 for Iraq. Vietnam
was 5.6 times more deadly for deployed troops as Iraq. Reasons
cited in the study for the difference are improvements in military
medicine, faster evacuation to closer medical care, and more
and better body armor. (It is also possible--but not reported
in the study--that the nature of the combat in Vietnam was different--and
perhaps more lethal. For example, U.S. combat training may now
be better, or the enemy may have been more dangerous.)
The number of deaths compared
to the number wounded was also higher in Vietnam; 0.24 in Vietnam;
0.13 in Iraq, presumably for the same reasons the study articulated.
The death rates for branch
of service in Iraq also vary considerably:
the risk of death is greatest
in Iraq for Marines (both active and reserve) at 8.5 per 1,000;
Army (active and reserve) personnel
are experiencing 3.4 deaths per 1,000 deployed;
Navy personnel are less exposed
at a rate of 0.83;
Air Force personnel are the
least exposed at a rate of 0.4.
The average death rate across
all services is 3.9.
Put another way, the chance
of a deployed armed services member dying in Iraq is one out
of every 255 per year.
The comparable death rate for
military age civilian males in the U.S. is 1.5 per 1,000, about
40 percent less than that of military personnel in Iraq.
Rank
Generals and admirals in Iraq
are safer than their age cohort is in America; none have died
in Iraq. However:
30 majors, lieutenant colonels,
and colonels have died;
156 lieutenants and captains
have died;
the vast majority of the dead
are:
sergeants (738 dead); and
privates, corporals, and specialists
(1,359 dead).
The University of Pennsylvania study assessed the relative risk:
Army and Marine enlisted personnel
have 40 percent and 36 percent higher mortality than all officers,
respectively.
However, Army and Marine lieutenants,
who typically lead combat patrols, have a higher mortality rate
than more senior officers and enlisted personnel; Army and Marine
lieutenants have a mortality rate 19 percent and 11 percent higher,
respectively, than all personnel in their respective branches
of service.
Gender
All but 64 of the deaths in
Iraq have been males. With women not permitted to hold positions
primarily intended for combat, their mortality is 5.5 times less
that of males.
Race
and Ethnicity
The University of Pennsylvania
study reports that DOD's data do not make analysis of mortality
across race and ethnicity easy; the study did, however, find
that:
Hispanics have a mortality
rate 21 percent higher than non-Hispanics;
blacks have a mortality rate
about 60 percent that of whites, and less than 50 percent the
rate of "other" ethnicities (American Indian, others
natives, and "multi-race.")
The study did not explain the
higher Hispanic mortality rate but did explain the lower mortality
rate for black personnel as a result of higher representation
in categories with less exposure to combat, such as the female
gender and perhaps technical or support services.
Other
Categories
Icasualties.org reports a "partial list"
of 367 civilian contractors from all non-Iraqi nationalities
as fatalities and 116 fatalities among journalists from all nations.
As Republican and Democratic candidates for elective office position
themselves on the politics of the war in Iraq for advantage in
the upcoming congressional elections, it is useful to inform
ourselves about who and how many are experiencing the real risks.
Currently, the politicians are waiting for a more favorable environment
after the elections to sort out what they are actually going
to do, if anything, about the war; meanwhile, the military personnel
in Iraq--all of them--have more important things to worry about.
Winslow T. Wheeler is the Director of the Straus Military
Reform Project of the Center for Defense Information and author
of The
Wastrels of Defense. Over 31 years, he worked for US Senators
from both political parties and the Government Accountability
Office on national security issues. He can be contacted at: winslowwheeler@comcast.net.
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