Demography	Social Indicators
Health	Education

LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT

On the basis of the estimated population of 148.72 million and the participation rate of 29.61 percent, as per the Labour Force Survey 2001-02, the total labour force is estimated at 45.05 million. Of this, 30.19 million or 67.03 percent is in the rural areas and 14.85 million or 32.97 percent is in the urban areas.

Labour Force Participation rate In Pakistan, labour force participation is estimated on the basis of the Crude Activity Rate (CAR) and the Refined Activity Rate (RAR). The CAR is the percentage of the labour force in the total population while the RAR is the percentage of the labour force in the population of persons 10 years of age and above. According to the Labour Force Survey 2001-02 the overall labour force participation rate (CAR) is 29.6 percent (29.9 percent in rural areas and 29.1 percent in urban areas). CAR was 28.7 percent in 1996-97 increased to 29.4 percent in 1997-98 but later declined to 29 percent in 1999-2000. It has increased to 29.61 percent in 2001-02. Similarly RAR was 43 percent in 1996-97, increased to 43.3

percent in 1997-98, decreased to 42.8 percent in 1999-2000 and has increased to 43.3 percent in 2002-2003. A comparison of rural and urban participation rates reveals that the labour force participation rates are higher in rural areas as Pakistan’s economy is mainly agrarian and agriculture is a family occupation there.

With population growing at 2.1 percent per annum and addition of 3.1 million persons every year, Pakistan faces a formidable challenge of tackling the issue of economic development and poverty reduction. Such sizeable addition to the population not only dilutes the results of the development efforts but also creates unsustainable level of demand on already scarce resources to cater for the needs of the population. This also imposes restraints on efforts for improving the living conditions of the population.

In the past, high population growth has significantly pushed the population below poverty line. If the current trend persists, Pakistan's population will reach 217 million by the year 2020. Based on present growth patterns and trends, the economy would not be able to sustain the growing pressure of population and resultant deterioration in quality of life will foil the government's recent efforts for social uplift. The high population growth is, therefore, a matter of national concern. Hence, the thrust for improvement in quality of life, social uplift and economic development can be augmented by improving the effectiveness of population welfare program.

Pakistan has been facing the ever-largest adolescent population, because of its high level of fertility over the last few decades, (decline in fertility is a very recent phenomenon). The adolescent population, in the age group of 15-24, as it enters into its reproductive phase, embodies potential population growth for several decades. It constitutes population momentum with serious implications for provision of schooling, healthcare and other basic amenities of life for the coming decades. Almost one third of Pakistanis are living below poverty line. The impact of population growth on poverty is obvious, since poorer families, especially women and marginalized groups, bear the burden of a large number of children with relatively fewer resources, further adding to the spiral of poverty and deterioration in the status of women. Thus, a large part of the population is constrained to live in poor housing and sanitation conditions, with lack of access to safe drinking water. In particular, the income poverty leads to pressure on food consumption and adversely affects caloric intakes. This adds to malnutrition in poorer families and contributes to high levels of child and maternal morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, the rapid population growth also contributes to environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources. Data shows that during the last three decades, developing countries with lower fertility and slower population growth have seen higher productivity, more savings and more investments. Investments in population welfare programme, education and health sectors have contributed substantially to fertility declines. Therefore, addressing high population growth should undoubtedly be magna cartae of the overall planning perspective.

The need to pursue an effective population program at all levels can neither be ignored nor exaggerated. With population of 149 million (2003), Pakistan ranks at 7th position in terms of World's population size. It is encouraging to note that the demographic transition has started and the growth rate is estimated to decline to 1.8 percent by mid 2004. The country has to a mass additional resources to feed, cloth and provide various services to population The population of the country is marked with considerably high proportion of young age, high dependency ratio and big size. The increasing number of population has resulted in low level of human development, low savings & investment ratios, low labour force participation rate and low per capita income. Hence, Pakistan is classified among the low income countries. Family planning programs have been pursued in the country since 1950s. The frequent changes in program strategies and inconsistent political support remained main impediments in the way of its successful implementation. Ministry of Population Welfare have formulated an Interim Population Sector Perspective Plan 2012.

Due to demographic transition, the share of old age population has declined by 1.5 percentage points. This change in demographic structure owes heavily to a steady decline in population growth since 1981. With further slow down in population growth, Pakistan may see its shares of working-age population to rise while that of young age population decline. Demographic transition provides an opportunity for raising economic growth and increasing prosperity. Pakistan may succeed in mobilizing sufficient capital (investment) and use it efficiently with the rising working-age population but this will depend largely on government's socio-economic policies. If the workforce is better educated, it will be better placed to contribute to economic growth. If government's macroeconomic policies are such that lead to job creation, the country will more likely to realize the potential benefits of demographic transition in terms of higher economic growth. Population Size and Literacy Rate Pakistan has experienced an accelerated population growth rate. It's population has increased from 32.5 million (1947) to an estimated 149 million in 2003. In 1951 the population of the country was 33.7 million, which has increased to 85.1 million by 1981 and further to about 149 million by 2003. In other words, it has quardruppled in the last 52 years. The population is increasing but at a sliding scales i.e. from 3.06 percent to 2.1 percent per annum. However during the last 25 years, the adult literacy has increased from 26.2 percent in 1981 to 51.6 percent in 2003.

The current population growth is still high (2.1 percent) and the government is making every effort to reduce it to 1.8 percent by 2003-04 as per country's Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP). The various population planning programmes launched by the Government have effectively contributed in slowing the population growth rate. Realizing the importance of improving the country's social indicators in general and education in particular the government has prepared a medium-to-long

Population Growth and Literacy Rates (1999 to 2003)

Mid Year	Total Population (Million)	Growth Rate (%)	Literacy Rate (%)
			Rate	% Change
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003	136.64 139.76 142.86 145.96 149.03(E)	2.29 2.24 2.22 2.16 2.10	45.0 47.1 49.0 50.5 51.6	3.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.2

E: Estimated
Source: Population Census Organization & Ministry of Planning & Dev. Division

Selected Demographic Indicators
Indicators	Year (2003)
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) (per 100 thousand live birth) Life Expectancy Male Female	4.3 27.3 8 83 350-435 63

Labour Force and Employment

On the basis of estimated population of 149 million for mid-year 2003 and the participation rate of 28.97 percent, the total labour force comes to 42.75 million. Of this 29.69 million or 69.45 percent is in the rural areas and 13.06 million or 30.55 percent in the urban areas. Distribution of labour force from 1995 to 2003 is
given in the table below:

Rural-Urban Labour Force
Year	Labour Force		Rural		Urban
	Million	Annual Growth	Million	% Share	Million	% Share
1999 2000 2001(E) 2002(E) 2003(E)	39.80 40.13 41.00 41.84 42.75	2.4 0.8 2.2 2.0 2.2	27.95 27.88 28.48 29.07 29.69	70.23 69.47 69.46 69.50 69.45	11.85 12.25 12.52 12.77 13.06	29.77 30.53 30.54 30.50 30.55

Labour Force Participation Rate
In Pakistan, labour force participation is estimated on the basis of Crude Activity Rate (CAR) and Refined Activity Rate (RAR). The CAR is percentage of labour force in total population and the PAR is the percentage of labor force in population of persons 10 years of age and above.

According to the Labour Force Survey, 1999-2000, the labour force participation rate (CAR) is almost 30 percent (29.8) percent in rural areas and 27.1 percent in urban areas). CAR was 27.5 percent in 1994-95. It increased to 28.7 percent in 1996-97 and to 29.4 percent in 1997-98 but has slightly declined to 29 percent in 1999-2000. Similarly RAR was 41.2 percent in 1994-95 and increased to 43 percent in 1996-97. It slightly increased to 43.3 percent in 1997-98 but has declined to 42.8 percent in 1999-2000. Inter-comparison of rural and urban participation rates reveal that labour force participation rates are higher in rural areas as compared to urban areas because Pakistan's economy is mainly agrarian and that the agriculture is a family profession in rural areas.

The female labour force participation rate is far less compared to male participation rate and as such their participation in economic activities is also low. The crude and refined labuor force participation rates by area and sex for 1994-95, 1996-97, 1997-98 and 1999-2000.

Labour Force Participation Rates By Area and Sex
Year	Crude Activity Rate(CAR)			Refined Activity Rate(RAR)
	Pakistan	Rural	Urban	Pakistan	Rural	Urban
1999-2000 Both Sexes Male Female	29.0 47.6 9.3	29.8 48.2 10.7	27.1 46.5 6.3	42.8 70.4 13.7	54.1 73.1 16.1	38.1 65.0 8.8

Employment Situation
Employed labour force is defined as all persons of ten years of age and more who worked at least one hour during the reference period and were either "paid employees" or "self employed". Based on this definition, the total number of employed labour force in 2003 is estimated at 39.41 million compared to 38.57 million in 2002. The total number of employed persons in urban areas has increased from 11.52 million in 2002 to 11.78 million in 2003. Similarly rural employment increased from 27.05 million in 2002 to 27.63 million in 2003. Employment increased at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2003 compared to 2.1 percent in 2002. Distribution of employed labour force by urban/rural areas from 1995 to 2003 is given in table-13.8.

Employed Labour Force by Area
Year	Employed Labour Force	Annual Growth (%)	Rural		Urban
			No.(M)	% Share	No.(M)	% Share
2001 2002 2003	37.79 38.57 39.41	2.2 2.1 2.2	26.50 27.05 27.63	70.15 70.13 70.11	11.29 11.52 11.78	29.85 29.87 29.89

Employed Labour Force by Sectors

The agriculture sector is the largest employer and employed 19.08 million or 48.42 percent of the total employed in 2003. This sector employed 17.29 million persons in 1998 and its relative share was 47.25 percent. Similarly the relative share of manufacturing & mining had increased from 10.15 percent in 1998 to 11.55 percent 2003. In contrast the share of agriculture has increased by 1.17 percentage point in the last 5 years. The relative share of employed labour force in the finance, insurance and social services sector which was 16.23 in 1998 has declined to 15.02 percent in 2003. The share of trade sector has also decreased from 13.87 percent in 1998 to 13.50 percent in 2003. However the share of manufacturing sector has increased from 10.15 percent in 1998 to 11.55 percent in 2003. The construction sector and transport sector absorbed 6.26 percent and 5.48 percent, respectively in 1998. Compared to it, their relative share in 2003 declined to 5.78 percent and 5.03 percent, respectively.

The employed labour force by sectors for 1998 and 2003 along with its sectoral share is presented in the table below:

Employed Labour Force By Sectors
(No. in million)
Sector	2003
	No.	% Share
Agriculture Manufacturing & Mining Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Transport Finance, Insurance, Community & Social Services Others	19.08 4.55 2.28 5.32 1.98 5.92 0.28	48.42 11.55 5.78 13.50 5.03 15.02 0.70
Total	39.41	100.00

Employment by occupation
Looking at employment by major occupational groups, agriculture sector's role is again conspicuous. The data given in Table-13.10
for 1998 and 2003 reveals that major portion of the employed persons consists of skilled agricultural and fisheries workers. The share of this occupational group was about 40 percent in 1998 and has slightly increased to 40.03 percent in 2003.

The next occupational group consists of elementary unskilled occupations. Its share was 20.13 percent in 1998 but has declined to 18.13 percent in 2003. The share of craft and related trades workers group was 12.71 percent in 1998 but has increased to 15.05 percent in 2003. The plant and machine operators group comprised 3.68 percent of employment in 1998 but its share in total employed persons have gone down to 3.29 percent in 2003. The shares of service and sales workers group, and professionals group have gone down from 6.02 percent in 1998 to 4.58 percent in 2003 and from 3.03 percent in 1998 to 2.21 percent in 2003, respectively. However, the share of legislators and managers group has increased from 9.76 percent in 1998 to 11 percent in 2003. Similarly the share of technicians group has also increased from 2.92 percent in 1998 to 4.17 percent in 2003.

Employed Persons by Major Occupational Groups
(No. in million)
Major Occupational Groups	2003
	No.	% Share
ALegislators, senior officers & managers Professional, Technicians & associate professionals Clerks Service workers and shop & market sales workers. Skilled agricultural and fishery workers. Craft and related trades workers Plant & machine operators & assemblers. Elementary (unskilled occupations)	4.33 0.87 1.65 0.61 1.80 15.78 5.93 1.29 7.15	11.00 2.21 4.17 1.55 4.58 40.03 15.05 3.28 18.13
Total	39.41	100.00

Unemployment
Unemployment is defined as all persons ten years of age and above who during the period under reference were:
(a) without work i.e. were not in paid employment or self-employed,
(b) currently available for work i.e. were available for paid employment or self-employment and
(c) seeking work i.e. had taken specific steps in a specified period to seek paid employment or selfemployment.

According to this definition, about 3.34 million persons in the labour force are estimated as unemployed in 2003 compared to 3.27 million in 2002. Unemployed labour force by urban/rural areas from 1995 to 2003.

Unemployed Labour Force by Rural/Urban Area
Year	Unemployed Labour Force			Unemployment Rate(%)
	Total	Rural	Urban	Total	Rural	Urban
2001 2002 2003	3.21 3.27 3.34	1.98 2.02 2.06	1.23 1.25 1.28	7.82 7.82 7.82	6.94 6.94 6.94	9.92 9.92 9.92

The above table reveals that unemployment has increased from 5.89 percent in 1998 to 7.82 percent in 2003. Similarly unemployment in rural areas which was 4.98 percent in 1998 has risen to 6.94 percent in 2003 and urban unemployment has enhanced from 7.95 percent in 1999 to 9.92 percent in 2003.

Employment Promotion Policies
The government has fully acknowledged prospective repercussions of growing unemployment in the country and has taken several steps to create job opportunities. Some of the important employment promotion measures are given below:

Realizing that a sound base of economic development and its faster growth has a direct bearing on the growth of employment, the Government has taken various steps for reviving the economy and accelerating the pace of economic growth. These include, Revitalization of Agriculture Sector, Development of Small and Medium Enterprises Sector, Oil and Gas, and Information Technology and Construction Sector.

An allocation of Rs.134 billion has been made for the year 2002-03 in the Public Sector Development Programme which is higher by Rs.7 billion or 5.2 percent, compared to Rs127 billion in the previous year, 2001-2002. As a result of implementation of the annual development programme/schemes, a large number of job opportunities would be created in the country.

The SMEs are labour intensive and encompass a wide range of activities, size, structure, productivity and input use. The SME development is a critical target of the Government for generating jobs on a large scale. In order to promote SME sector, the Government has established a Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) in 1999 to meet the needs of SMEs and work for the growth of this sector. The focus of these initiatives is on four areas namely availability of credit reduction in the cost of doing business, up-gradation of technology and marketing of products in the international markets. It is hoped that this will have a positive impact on the job creation capacity of the SME sector.

SME Bank was established on 1st January 2002 with a mission to support and develop SME Sector in Pakistan by providing financial
assistance and business support. It also provides financial assistance to women for selfemployment and also extends its cooperation in the areas of management, product innovation and development, quality control, acquisition of new technology and product positioning and marketing. As a result of its activities, around 2000 job opportunities were created in the SME Sector.

Self-employment is an important vehicle for arresting the rising trend in unemployment. Emphasis is being placed on income generation activities for promotion of self-employment at the grass root level. Khushhali Bank has been established to provide loans up to Rs.30,000/- to poor people to set up their own business. The operation of the Bank would be spread in every district and loans given by it will generate employment for the unemployed. By the end of December, 2002, the Bank had its branches in 26 districts and had disbursed loans amounting to Rs.883.77 million in 52,766 cases. As a result 316,596 persons had benefited.

Khushhall Pakistan Programme is the Government's principal social intervention aimed at generating employment through undertakingpublic works in the country. The programme includes (a) building farm to market roads, b)undertaking water supply schemes (c) lining of water channels and de-silting of canals (d) provision and renovation of civic amenities in rural and urban areas and village electrification etc. The schemes under the programme are identified and selected at the district level through active community participation. During the period 2000-02, temporary jobs were provided to about 6,70,000 individuals.

Technical/vocational training enhances employability of the work force. At present training capacity of 68024 trainee places for men and 54638 places for women are available in the country. Based on the changing trends in the labour market domestically and internationally and the demand for industry-wise and sectorwise skilled labour, the existing technical training curricula are being revised. Under the new training policy, women are being encouraged to participate in the training programme of the country to bring them in the mainstream through the formal and informal apprenticeship training.

Further initiatives are being undertaken to involve the private sector more actively in expanding technical/vocational training in line with labour market needs. During the current financial year 2002-03 up to February, 2003), as many as 1,26,418 persons have proceeded abroad for employment through the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment and Overseas Employment Corporation. Compared to the financial year 2001- 02, the persons who went abroad for employment were 1,16,067. Keeping in view the increasing trend in manpower export, the target for the year 2003-04 has been fixed at 1,50,000 workers, provided there is no big setback in the geopolitical situation in the region. During the fiscal years 2003-04, the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment plans to open two new offices of Protectorates of Emigrants in Multan and Malakand Divisions to facilitate intending emigrants of these less developed areas in seeking employment abroad.

The Overseas Employment Corporation (OEC) will explore new opportunities and avenues for employment of Pakistani manpower
in South Korea for employment of general workers, USA for employment of nurses and Europe for employment of doctors and nurses. OEC has appointed a consultancy firm for promotion of manpower export in the public sector. It is expected that with the implementation of the consultants report the export of manpower from OEC would increase to between 4000-6000 workers in the years ahead. With a view to facilitate Pakistanis in seeking employment abroad in professional/highly skilled areas, the Overseas Employment Corporation has established a data bank for the interested emigrants and has launched the "CV-on-Line Scheme for Overseas Employment Promotion". Information Technology (IT) has been included as one of the four priority sectors selected for unleashing the growth process in the country. An IT policy has been announced under which four areas have been identified which include human resource development, telecommunication, legal framework for IT Sector and marketing support for IT sector. The Ministry of Science and Technology has prepared a programme to meet high level manpower needs in science and technology. In this connection, vocational training programme to produce over 100,000 professionals in Information Technology has been launched. With a view to lessening the suffering of poorest segments of the population, Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) was set-up in April, 2000. Up to 31st December,2002, the PPAF has made disbursement of Rs.2590 million to 739,416 beneficiaries in 75 districts through 34 partner organizations in the country. Disbursement has been made towards credit and enterprise development, community physical infrastructure and human/institutional development. So far 2735 such projects have been initiated which were community identified, locally managed and locally run. Implementation of these programmes and projects helped in reducing poverty and creating job opportunities in the country.

POPULATION**
Mid Year (End June)	Popu- Comlation (mln)	Labour Force Partici- pation Rate(%)	Civilian Labour Force (mln)	Emp- loyed Total (mln)	Crude Birth Rate	Crude Death Rate
2001 2002 2003(P)	142.86 145.96 149.03	28.48 28.48 29.00	40.69 40.69 42.75	37.50 37.50 39.41	.. .. 27.30	.. .. 8.00
.. not available P: Provisional * Census Years. (1) Population: Population Census Organisation, Planning Commission and Demographic Survey 1991 and 1996-97. (2) Labour Force: Labour Force Surveys Participation Rate: Population Census of Pakistan 1998 (3) Infant Mortality Rate: Pakistan Demographic Surveys, Federal Bureau of Life expectancy at birth: Statistics and Planning Commission (4) Crude Birth Rate: Population Census of Pakistan 1981 and 1998. Crude Death Rate: Pakistan Demographic Survey 1996-97 ** Population figures in different tables may not tally due to different sources of data/agences. However, population and growth rates in this table has been estimated on the basis of average annual growth during 1981-98.

POPULATION BY SEX AND RURAL/URBAN AREAS
Mid Year (End June)	All Areas	Rural areas	Urban areas	Male	Female
2001 2002 2003(P)	142.86 145.96 149.03	95.36 97.06 99.12	47.50 48.89 49.91	74.23 75.79 77.38	68.63 70.17 71.65

Note: Population Census were conducted in February 1951, January 1961, September 1972, and March 1981 and 1998.

LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT
Mid Year	2001	2002	2003
Population Rural Urban Working Age Population Rural Urban Labour Force Rural Urban Employed Labour Force Rural Urban Unemployed Labour Rural Urban Unemployment Rate Rural Urban Labour Force Participation Rates (%) Rural Urban	140.47 92.99 47.48 95.07 61.34 33.73 40.69 28.63 12.06 37.50 26.64 10.86 3.19 1.99 1.20 7.82 6.94 9.92 28.97 29.82 27.14	143.38 94.29 49.09 97.04 62.18 34.86 41.54 29.23 12.31 38.29 27.20 11.09 3.25 2.03 1.22 7.82 6.94 9.92 28.97 29.82 27.14	146.27 95.52 50.75 99.00 63.44 35.56 42.38 29.82 12.56 39.06 27.75 11.31 3.32 2.07 1.25 7.82 6.94 9.92 28.97 29.82 27.14

DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS OF 10 YEARS AGE AND ABOVE BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES
Year	Agricul- ture	Mining & Manufac- turing	Construc- tion	Electricity & Gas Distribution	Trans- port	Trade
2001 2002 2003(P)	48.42 48.42 48.42	11.55 11.55 11.55	5.78 5.78 5.78	0.70 0.70 0.70	5.03 5.03 5.03	13.50 13.50 13.50

AGE SPECIFIC LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
Age Group	2000-01	2001-02
10 years & over Both Sexes Male Female 10-14 Male Female 15-19 Male Female 20-24 Male Female 25-34 Male Female 35-44 Male Female 45-54 Male Female 55-59 Male Female 60+ Male Female	42.80 70.39 13.72 18.32 2.79 58.26 7.19 85.24 14.14 96.41 18.80 97.51 21.70 95.90 21.27 90.61 17.76 60.68 13.04	42.80 70.39 13.72 18.32 2.79 58.26 7.19 85.24 14.14 96.41 18.80 97.51 21.70 95.90 21.27 90.61 17.76 60.68 13.04

DAILY WAGES OF CONSTRUCTION WORKERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES*
(In Pak Rupees)
Category of workers and cities	2000	2001	2002*
Carpenter Islamabad Karachi Lahore Peshawar Quetta Mason (Raj) Islamabad Karachi Lahore Peshawar Quetta Labourer (Unskilled) Islamabad Karachi Lahore Peshawar Quetta	218.75 292.30 262.50 200.00 250.00 218.75 292.30 262.50 200.00 250.00 120.00 174.04 145.00 80.00 100.00	225.00 291.34 262.50 225.00 250.00 225.00 291.34 262.50 225.00 250.00 120.00 176.34 145.00 90.00 100.00	225.00 298.08 262.50 225.00 250.00 225.00 298.08 262.50 225.00 250.00 120.00 182.11 145.00 90.00 112.50

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