Ukraine-EU Summit starts in Kyiv as Russian forces in east show readiness for combat

Combined Russian-separatist forces are at their “highest level” of combat readiness while Ukraine faces mounting pressure to cede more power to regional governments in the east as a summit with the European Union starts in Kyiv.

Citing Western and domestic intelligence, pro-presidential lawmaker Yuriy Lutsenko said that separatist forces are at their “maximum level of readiness to launch an offensive,” according to an interview on Inter TV channel on April 26.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe the same day noted the “most intense shelling in Shyryokyne since fighting began in the area in mid-February.” Shryrokyne is only 10 kilometers east of the strategic, government-controlled Azov Sea port city of Mariupol with 500,000 residents.

OSCE monitors saw 11 tanks and four armored personnel carriers with infantry moving through separatist-controlled territory 15 kilometers north of the Shyrokyne hotspot. Over the last three days the OSCE observed “17 tanks, three self-propelled howitzers and 60 armored personnel carriers in the (self-proclaimed) Donetsk People’s Republic-controlled area 50 kilometers north of Shyrokyne.”

One Ukrainian soldier was killed and seven wounded in the last 24 hours, according to the military’s Facebook page on the morning of April 27. Pro-Kyiv forces faced 12 attacks from 120-millimeter mortars, seven from 122-millimeter mortars, and five from 152-millimeter mortars in the past 48 hours.

Combined Russian-separatist forces used Grad rocket launchers twice on Ukrainian positions near Hranitne in Donetsk Oblast, Col. Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said at a briefing in Kyiv on April 26.

The escalation coincides with news that diplomats from key EU countries are urging Kyiv to transfer more authority to regional governments during the April 27 summit with the 28-nation political bloc.

Officials in the United Kingdom, France and Germany want Kyiv to implement the political clauses of the Feb. 12 cease-fire agreement, in particular, decentralization of power to the regions that include areas controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists.

“German officials are talking to both sides, but especially to the Ukrainians because if they don’t do what’s necessary, the Russians will always have the possibility of renewing the conflict,” the Financial Times reported, citing Stefan Meister of Berlin’s DGAP foreign policy think tank.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry called the demands “perfect hypocrisy,” according to the Financial Times.

Earlier on April 21, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry accused Russia of not meeting any clause of the February truce brokered in Minsk, Belarus.

Kyiv accused Russian military and mercenaries of pulling the trigger every day, of not pulling back heavy weapons, of not giving OSCE monitors unfettered access to territory not controlled by the Ukrainian government, of bolstering its forces and of illegally sending over vehicle convoys into the country, Yevhen Perebiynis, foreign ministry spokesman, said at a briefing last week.

The EU’s stance caused some experts to question whether Brussels actually has a long-term policy strategy on Ukraine. The country hasn’t been stable, especially in the war-torn easternmost oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.

“The EU must actually ask itself…whether it is dealing with Ukraine through a prism of Russia or dealing with a sovereign Ukraine taken on its own merits,” Judy Dempsey, non-resident senior associate at Carnegie Europe, told the Kyiv Post by phone. “If Brussels doesn’t understand the nature and the huge dynamic of the crisis (in Ukraine) then why hold the summit in Kyiv – Ukraine is a huge existential, strategic and security issue for all of Europe.”

Kyiv, according to experts, doesn’t want to lose control of the provinces by moving ahead quickly with decentralization. Although Ukraine doesn’t object to decentralization, and the Minsk truce agreement doesn’t stipulate whether the measure should take place before or after local and regional elections take place, “pressure will likely be exerted in Kyiv this week for further compromise – whether (President Petro) Poroshenko can deliver on this without destabilizing Ukrainian domestic politics is open to question,” Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank, said in an emailed statement.

Dempsey of Carnegie Europe said that Kyiv and Brussels “must be frank with each other” at the summit: “It’s good for Kyiv to ask the EU what its long-term intention is.”

At the summit in Kyiv, both sides are also expected to discuss Ukraine’s progress in implementing reforms, including in energy, the EU-Ukraine free trade agreement that is supposed to fully go into effect on Jan. 1, 2016, and prospects for visa-free travel to the EU.

Kyiv Post editor Mark Rachkevych can be reached at rachkevych@kyivpost.com.