The Long-Term Defence Development Plan 2009-2018 (Plan 2018) summary

Development of defence planning in Estonia can be characterised as the search for a perfect plan that would solve all questions related to national defence. It is clear that – against a background of limited resources and changing security environment – the requirement is rather for an organised process offering modern solutions: “evolution instead of revolution”.

Today we have achieved a clear vision of what a suitable defence planning model for Estonia should look like; one that considers the specificities of Estonia as a small state, but also considers the requirements for interoperability with Allies in defence of our common values. That being said, the Plan 2018 is not a document giving answers to all the challenges rising today or in the foreseeable future. It is rather a tool translating today’s strategic security and defence policy guidelines into military capabilities and respective development programmes within specified resources and timeframes.

The policy guidance for the Plan 2018 was derived from the following documents: National Security Concept (2004), National Military Strategy (2005), NATO’s Strategic Concept (1999), NATO’s Comprehensive Political Guidance (2006) and The European Security Strategy (2003).

The foundations of Estonia’s national defence rely on two strategic pillars: NATO membership and initial self-defence capability. These pillars together create a credible deterrence. Upon need, Estonia’s military defence will be conducted as a collective defence operation of NATO, as prescribed in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

As the first step in developing the Plan 2018, scenarios requiring the use of Estonian Defence Forces (EDF) and the Defence League, based on the National Military Strategy and strategic threat assessment, were drafted. These scenarios covered the full spectrum of operations. Based on scenarios, operational analysis was conducted, and further more detailed planning situations were developed. This – with consideration to established assumptions, exceptions and limitations – identified minimum military capabilities required to fulfil previously established tasks. The comparison of existing and required capabilities identified capability gaps, or shortfalls. These were prioritised based on risk analysis of threat assessments and the usability of capabilities in planning situations. The subsequent programming stage established recommended development levels and resource requirements for these capabilities. As a result of programming process, three categories of capabilities were identified: capabilities militarily valid, but disproportionately costly for Estonia – these could be developed in cooperation with NATO and/or Allies; capabilities militarily valid, but not feasible to be developed within the planning cycle; capabilities militarily valid and feasible within the 10-year planning period.

In terms of financial resources, the planning assumption was the increase of defence expenditures to meet 2% of GDP by 2010, and sustaining that level thereafter.

In terms of human resources, the Plan 2018 foresees an annual increase of regular EDF members by 125. The priority is to significantly increase the training capacity of the Estonian National Defence College and the Estonian Defence Forces Võru Battle School. Also, the number of active members of the Defence League is expected to increase. To improve the capabilities of staff- and senior officers, the priority is to further develop the Baltic Defence College and to continue to fulfil the responsibilities of Estonia as Host Nation.

Compulsory military service will remain the basis for manning the units and for recruiting to the EDF. While drafting the Plan 2018, an analysis of compulsory military service was conducted – this suggested retaining of the current compulsory military service model also for the near future.

To achieve goals of the security policy the Plan 2018 foresees continued participation of Estonia’s military capabilities and units in operations led by NATO, EU and/ or coalitions of the willing outside of national territory. The planning assumption to achieve this includes NATO’s usability criteria. Participation in operations outside of Estonia serves as a development instrument for the EDF and the Defence League.

All capabilities covered by the Plan 2018 were analysed and assessed according to NATO capability statements. This gives better preconditions to achieve interoperability with Allies. The planning goals, agreed upon in NATO’s collective defence planning process, are achievable. New and usable capabilities will be provided through planned development process, and these can later be declared as part of collective defence. The deployability of capabilities and units will be agreed upon in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs while drafting the Mid-Term Development Plan.

In order to increase Estonia’s commitment to NATO’s collective security, it is vital to fully develop NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) into an organisation that will bring together competence on cyber security and that will help NATO and Allies to develop military capabilities in this field.

According to the Plan 2018, investments to command and control, intelligence, surveillance and communications systems will increase. Creating modern command and control, intelligence, surveillance and communications capabilities is a strategically important goal. This will ensure early warning to prepare for crisis and also adequate command and decision making process of military units in times of crisis.

Estonia continues to invest to Ämari Air Base in order to enable the execution of air policing operations and achieving the capacity to base fighter aircrafts at Ämari. The allocations of costs relating to air policing will be agreed with Allies. The visible presence of NATO and Allies on Estonian territory and airspace continues to be important.

One of the priorities in military defence is the development of capabilities to ensure air defence. According to the Plan 2018, a limited mobile short-to-medium-range air defence capability will be developed and the existing army short-range air defence capability will be enhanced through the procurement of additional weapons systems and creation of new air defence units.

The priority for the Army is the development of a high readiness infantry brigade. In order to increase the readiness of brigade, the reserve period of the units will be extended. Additional measures will include a significant increase of reserve training, improvement of the reserve personnel registry, as well as formation and mobilisation system. Battalion level leadership training and maintaining of qualifications will be improved.

The Plan 2018 foresees a need for developing mechanised units, the task of which is to support ground operations. The program analyses the procurement of tanks or infantry fighting vehicles for at least one battalion.

The further development of anti-tank capability remains a priority. The Plan 2018 foresees modernisation and further procurement of existing anti-tank weapons systems. It also foresees the formation of additional anti-tank units in the EDF and the Defence League.

The voluntary defence organisation – the Defence League is the main provider of capabilities for territorial defence. Development priorities of the Defence League during the planning period include the increase of the number of active members, the establishment of necessary command and control capabilities for battalion and Defence District level, the development of rapid reaction units and the improvement of combat capabilities.

The Defence League will focus on the preparation of infantry companies, internal defence companies and formation units. The measures foreseen by the Plan 2018 will enable the Defence League to become even more significant military deterrent.

In terms of naval and air operations, the Plan 2018 foresees the focus on development of capabilities crucial for the prevention of crisis and ensuring of Host Nation Support.

Among new development programs for the Navy is the procurement of multirole fast patrol boats to ensure defence of territorial waters and to improve maritime surveillance. The Navy’s capabilities for command and control and shore-to-vessel communications will be improved.

The Plan 2018 identified a need to launch a multi-role helicopter program. The main goal will be to ensure the tactical transport for rapid reaction units, to perform monitoring and identification flights and to establish medical evacuation capability.

The implementation of all development programmes by the end of the planning period will result in an interoperable National Defence organisation that corresponds to NATO’s usability criteria. The defence organisation will be a significant deterrent and will have necessary capabilities to fulfil all required tasks.

By the end of the planning period the size of the EDF consists of 4000 regulars. The EDF strength, including the reserve units, will be 25 000 persons, and additional Defence League units.

* Unofficial translation