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Bloomberg ranked countries based on their risk of stagflation.
First, the average real Gross Domestic Product change and average Consumer Price Index change was calculated for each country from 2012 to 2014. Then the Stagflation Score was determined by multiplying average real GDP change by average CPI change if the average real GDP change was negative or by dividing average real GDP change by average CPI change if the average real GDP change was positive. The lower the score, the greater the risk of stagflation. Data for Kuwait Real GDP 2012 were estimates. Data for Cyprus were provided by the European Commission.
Bloomberg
September 27, 2013
Rank | Country | Stagflation score | Real GDP growth 2012 | Estimated real GDP growth 2013 | Estimated real GDP growth 2014 | 3-year Average real GDP growth | Consumer Price Index growth 2012 | Estimated Consumer Price Index growth 2013 | Estimated Consumer Price Index growth 2014 | 3-year Average Consumer Price Index growth |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cyprus t | -8.83 | -2.40% | -8.70% | -3.90% | -5.00% | 3.10% | 1.00% | 1.20% | 1.77% |
2 | Italy t | -2.82 | -2.40% | -1.70% | 0.50% | -1.20% | 3.31% | 2.00% | 1.75% | 2.35% |
3 | Portugal t | -2.74 | -3.25% | -2.00% | 0.20% | -1.68% | 2.78% | 1.20% | 0.90% | 1.63% |
4 | Greece t | -1.98 | -6.38% | -4.30% | -0.10% | -3.59% | 1.05% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.55% |
5 | Spain t | -1.64 | -1.60% | -1.40% | 0.60% | -0.80% | 2.44% | 2.30% | 1.40% | 2.05% |
6 | Croatia t | -1.58 | -1.96% | -0.65% | 1.05% | -0.52% | 3.43% | 3.20% | 2.50% | 3.04% |
7 | Netherlands t | -1.33 | -1.25% | -1.05% | 0.50% | -0.60% | 2.47% | 2.30% | 1.90% | 2.22% |
8 | Czech Republic t | -0.25 | -1.20% | -0.90% | 1.80% | -0.10% | 3.29% | 2.30% | 1.80% | 2.46% |
9 | Hungary t | 0.02 | -1.68% | 0.50% | 1.45% | 0.09% | 5.68% | 4.30% | 3.50% | 4.49% |
10 | Finland t | 0.03 | -0.78% | -0.40% | 1.40% | 0.07% | 2.81% | 2.60% | 2.05% | 2.49% |
11 | Belgium t | 0.09 | -0.28% | 0.00% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 2.85% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.28% |
12 | Venezuela t | 0.13 | 5.64% | 0.90% | 2.40% | 2.98% | 21.28% | 25.00% | 25.20% | 23.83% |
13 | France t | 0.17 | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.90% | 0.33% | 2.23% | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.91% |
14 | Ukraine t | 0.18 | 0.20% | 0.25% | 2.00% | 0.82% | 0.58% | 7.00% | 6.30% | 4.63% |
15 | Denmark t | 0.21 | -0.38% | 0.30% | 1.35% | 0.42% | 2.41% | 1.90% | 1.80% | 2.04% |
16 | Argentina t | 0.25 | 2.00% | 3.10% | 2.80% | 2.63% | 10.03% | 10.55% | 11.60% | 10.73% |
17 | Egypt t | 0.28 | 2.22% | 2.05% | 2.90% | 2.39% | 8.60% | 8.50% | 8.50% | 8.53% |
18 | Brazil t | 0.35 | 0.87% | 2.35% | 2.50% | 1.91% | 5.41% | 5.55% | 5.60% | 5.52% |
19 | Austria t | 0.38 | 0.65% | 0.40% | 1.50% | 0.85% | 2.48% | 2.20% | 2.00% | 2.23% |
20 | Bulgaria t | 0.39 | 0.80% | 0.90% | 1.80% | 1.17% | 2.95% | 3.00% | 3.10% | 3.02% |
21 | Turkey t | 0.45 | 2.20% | 3.60% | 4.00% | 3.27% | 8.94% | 6.70% | 6.30% | 7.31% |
22 | Romania t | 0.46 | 0.73% | 2.10% | 2.30% | 1.71% | 3.34% | 4.60% | 3.30% | 3.75% |
22 | South Africa t | 0.46 | 2.58% | 2.20% | 2.90% | 2.56% | 5.65% | 5.60% | 5.50% | 5.58% |
24 | Russia t | 0.47 | 3.40% | 2.00% | 2.85% | 2.75% | 5.07% | 6.50% | 5.80% | 5.79% |
25 | United Kingdom t | 0.48 | 0.20% | 1.30% | 2.00% | 1.17% | 2.84% | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.45% |
26 | Iceland t | 0.49 | 1.40% | 1.90% | 3.15% | 2.15% | 5.19% | 4.10% | 3.90% | 4.40% |
27 | Germany t | 0.51 | 0.70% | 0.50% | 1.80% | 1.00% | 2.14% | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.98% |
28 | Ireland t | 0.55 | 0.18% | 0.40% | 1.90% | 0.83% | 1.93% | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.51% |
29 | Slovakia t | 0.60 | 2.08% | 0.90% | 2.20% | 1.73% | 3.63% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.88% |
30 | Nigeria t | 0.61 | 6.33% | 6.75% | 6.98% | 6.69% | 12.24% | 10.05% | 10.50% | 10.93% |
31 | India t | 0.63 | 5.10% | 5.70% | 5.20% | 5.33% | 9.30% | 8.60% | 7.60% | 8.50% |
32 | Singapore t | 0.64 | 1.33% | 2.55% | 3.70% | 2.53% | 4.57% | 3.90% | 3.40% | 3.96% |
33 | Poland t | 0.65 | 1.90% | 1.15% | 2.50% | 1.85% | 3.70% | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.83% |
34 | Hong Kong t | 0.70 | 1.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 2.67% | 4.06% | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.82% |
35 | Vietnam t | 0.71 | 5.25% | 5.20% | 5.50% | 5.32% | 6.81% | 7.80% | 7.75% | 7.45% |
36 | Ghana t | 0.75 | 6.98% | 7.65% | 7.10% | 7.24% | 9.16% | 9.35% | 10.30% | 9.60% |
36 | Kenya t | 0.75 | 4.70% | 5.50% | 5.90% | 5.37% | 9.64% | 5.20% | 6.50% | 7.11% |
38 | Mexico t | 0.81 | 3.90% | 1.90% | 3.80% | 3.20% | 4.11% | 3.90% | 3.80% | 3.94% |
39 | Kazakhstan t | 0.88 | 5.04% | 5.30% | 5.60% | 5.31% | 5.12% | 6.70% | 6.30% | 6.04% |
40 | Kuwait t | 1.02 | 5.00*% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.67% | 2.93% | 4.00% | 3.85% | 3.59% |
41 | South Korea t | 1.03 | 2.00% | 2.60% | 3.50% | 2.70% | 2.20% | 2.70% | 3.00% | 2.63% |
42 | Canada t | 1.07 | 1.71% | 1.70% | 2.30% | 1.90% | 1.52% | 1.80% | 2.00% | 1.77% |
43 | United States t | 1.17 | 2.80% | 1.60% | 2.70% | 2.37% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 2.10% | 2.03% |
44 | Sweden t | 1.22 | 1.30% | 1.35% | 2.40% | 1.68% | 0.88% | 1.20% | 2.05% | 1.38% |
45 | Indonesia t | 1.23 | 6.23% | 5.80% | 5.80% | 5.94% | 4.28% | 5.15% | 5.10% | 4.84% |
46 | Australia t | 1.24 | 3.70% | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.97% | 1.75% | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.38% |
47 | Taiwan t | 1.34 | 1.32% | 2.45% | 3.70% | 2.49% | 1.93% | 1.65% | 2.00% | 1.86% |
48 | Colombia t | 1.35 | 4.20% | 3.90% | 4.50% | 4.20% | 3.17% | 3.10% | 3.05% | 3.11% |
49 | Saudi Arabia t | 1.38 | 6.81% | 4.20% | 4.50% | 5.17% | 2.86% | 4.40% | 4.00% | 3.75% |
50 | Oman t | 1.48 | 5.02% | 4.45% | 3.80% | 4.42% | 2.94% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 2.98% |
51 | New Zealand t | 1.51 | 3.20% | 2.60% | 2.95% | 2.92% | 1.08% | 2.20% | 2.50% | 1.93% |
52 | Thailand t | 1.55 | 6.50% | 4.00% | 4.60% | 5.03% | 3.02% | 3.45% | 3.30% | 3.26% |
53 | Chile t | 1.56 | 5.55% | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.68% | 3.02% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.01% |
54 | Israel t | 1.59 | 3.18% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.39% | 1.71% | 2.20% | 2.50% | 2.14% |
55 | Bahrain t | 1.68 | 3.85% | 4.00% | 3.40% | 3.75% | 1.20% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 2.23% |
56 | Panama t | 1.70 | 10.68% | 7.70% | 7.20% | 8.53% | 5.71% | 4.70% | 4.60% | 5.00% |
57 | Philippines t | 1.77 | 6.80% | 7.00% | 6.00% | 6.60% | 3.16% | 4.05% | 4.00% | 3.74% |
58 | Norway t | 1.88 | 3.13% | 2.30% | 2.70% | 2.71% | 0.72% | 1.60% | 2.00% | 1.44% |
59 | Peru t | 1.94 | 6.29% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 5.93% | 3.66% | 3.00% | 2.50% | 3.05% |
60 | Qatar t | 2.06 | 6.58% | 5.40% | 5.05% | 5.68% | 1.86% | 3.40% | 3.00% | 2.75% |
61 | Malaysia t | 2.27 | 5.60% | 4.50% | 5.20% | 5.10% | 1.68% | 2.45% | 2.60% | 2.24% |
62 | China t | 2.45 | 7.70% | 7.60% | 7.40% | 7.57% | 2.65% | 3.10% | 3.50% | 3.08% |
63 | United Arab Emirates t | 2.68 | 3.91% | 3.95% | 3.60% | 3.82% | 0.67% | 1.60% | 2.00% | 1.42% |
64 | Japan t | 3.27 | 1.98% | 1.90% | 1.55% | 1.81% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 1.70% | 0.55% |
65 | Switzerland t | 6.21 | 1.05% | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.45% | -0.70% | 0.50% | 0.90% | 0.23% |