EDITORIAL

As reports came in Monday that large sections of the Libyan capital, Tripoli, were falling to rebel forces, the world waited with bated breath to know the fate of the North African country and its mercurial leader, Muammar Gaddafi.

Russia in the last few days has continued to try to play the role of honest broker. But now Gaddafi seems on his way out, Russian energy interests in the country may suffer due to Moscow’s reluctance to help the Western-backed rebels.

The end of Gaddafi’s regime would undoubtedly be welcomed by many ordinary Libyans after decades of dictatorial rule, but there will also be many people distrustful of a military campaign to unseat him that succeeded mainly because of airstrikes and other armed support from the United States, France, Britain and Italy.

The West’s military intervention, sadly, was not for humanitarian motives – but for two principal reasons: to call a halt to the growing revolt throughout the Arab world, and to control Libya’s oil supplies.

For four decades, Western governments and oil companies were happy enough to deal with Gaddafi – regardless of human rights abuses. Only when it looked like Gaddafi might be toppled through a popular uprising and be replaced by a more radical government did they intervene.

Russia can’t really be said to have taken any concrete position on Gaddafi’s rule, or the rights of Libyan citizens. Although President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin appeared to fall out this spring over how to deal with NATO’s armed intervention, subsequent events tended to suggest that the two leaders in the tandem were playing different roles to give Russia foreign policy options in case Gaddafi stayed or fell.

Putin’s position – of opposition to what he likened to a “medieval crusade” – could yet be vindicated if the toppling of Gaddafi leads to an Iraq-style occupation of Libya. Meanwhile, Medvedev’s cautious neutrality toward NATO may leave the door open to Russian oil companies. Moscow’s fence-sitting strategy could also be seen cynically – as a way of keeping instability and high oil prices.

But whatever Russian leaders’ real position has been toward Gaddafi, their game plan will probably now have to change.