Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.
Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.
Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.
Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.
The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".
Not any more, it seems.
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Comments
Perhaps Charles couldn't foresee increased Arctic melting and consequent suppression of the Gulf Stream.
I wonder what Carribean storm seasons will be like over the next few years?
I live about half way between the Snowy Mountains and Cape York. It was cold enough for me to wear long trousers for about a week or so in July or August I think. We didn't get any rain after that until a couple of days in November, enough for some green shoots to appear and for the sun to dessicate them again before this Christmas week, when Timor Sea Cyclone Laurence turned into a rain depression that traversed the continent to refill our tanks (and top up the pool).
But thanks for asking.
Should you tire of facetiousness (heaven forbid!), I refer you to my previous posting (27 December 2009 at 04:16 am (UTC)) in response to David King's article. Also have a look at
http://opinion.independentminds.livejou
and the dialogue between myself and energyczar under the heading "HEY DENIALISTS, ONE SWALLOW DOTH NOT A SUMMER MAKE!" somewhere at
http://opinion.independentminds.livejou
my comment headed "Re: 2009 - The Year of SCEPTICISM", and the dialogue between colinru and myself under the heading "Re: Hijacked", both under
http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen
....By the way, why isnt anyone trying to bleed the Chinese for Carbon taxes? They do have two coal plants that put out more carbon than all of England, and are building 1-2 more every week. Soon you'll have glaciers over Scotland, right?
Meanwhile, for further details regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation, see "The North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present, and future", Visbeck et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 November 2001 vol. 98 no. 23 12876-12877 http://www.pnas.org/content/98/23/1
The good news regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation is that ocean heat transfer to Greenland and Scandinavia should now slow, in which case the rate of Greenland originated sea level rise would decline, and methane addition to atmosphere from Scandinavian permafrost thaw would decrease. If, for example, the UK remains snow-covered for a few months, more short-wave sunlight will be reflected, not absorbed. From an Antipodean perspective, that's all good.
The bad news is the possibility of more intense Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, and the certainty of major winter disruptions in north Europe. That said, intense updraft at centre of cyclonic storms is very efficient heat transfer mechanism to stratosphere.
"More CO2 please." - An Anonymous Tree
On a planetary scale, it may be difficult to distinguish between the effects of elevated CO2 per se, and any associated temperature change; in fact, plant growth rates are quite temperature-sensitive.
There is considerable research around the effects on plant health of higher CO2 atmosphere (to start, I searched for keywords "plant growth rate" within www.sciencedaily.com). Certainly, faster growth rates are observed at elevated CO2, given adequate availability of other materials such as Mg required for chlorophyll. That is, plants grown in CO2-rich atmospheres are relatively poor in other nutrients, so that herbivores will need to modify their diets.
If you look at the dialogue between myself and philip_jr, at http://opinion.independentminds.livejou
BTW, I myself am not one of those you describe as seeking the "distruction of industrialized society", as you would have it.
Noting that "all mighty dollars" are meaningless outside the context of a functioning economy, I rather hope for progress away from carbon dioxide emissions within the industrialised economy that underpins our society, so that our society does not suffer further degradation of its environment, and avoids the risk of catastrophic such degradation.
Regards
Fred
I'm not going to hold my breath......
That was untill I spotted it OH NO NOT A F*****G Polar Bear again !
It's a con .
On many fronts science is showing anthropogenic global warming to have been a wildly mistaken idea. Just Google the names of some of the scientists involved to learn more: Willie Soon, Richard Lindzen, Henrick Svensmark, and Steve McIntyre. For an update on where the climate debate is at the beginning of 2010 see:
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=2
Before the climate debate is over many more will look foolish for espousing anthropogenic global warming. But in defense of Charles Onians I must confess that back in 2000 I also believed in anthropogenic global warming. Then I read the works of the authors mentioned above and wised up.
I think my dogged reference to research findings caused philip_jr to give up trying to get me to change my mind.
If you're pondering the current European cold snap, for further details see "The North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present, and future", Visbeck et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 November 2001 vol. 98 no. 23 12876-12877 http://www.pnas.org/content/98/23/1
Warming alarmists are the ones operating under faith and ignoring science.
As to the apologists claiming this has to do with the gulf stream, the gulf stream is currently well within normal parameters.
The good news regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation is that ocean heat transfer to Greenland and Scandinavia should now slow, in which case the rate of Greenland originated sea level rise would decline, and methane addition to atmosphere from Scandinavian permafrost thaw would decrease. If, for example, the UK remains snow-covered for a few months, more short-wave sunlight will be reflected, not absorbed. From an Antipodean perspective, that's all good.
The bad news is the possibility of more intense Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, and the certainty of major winter disruptions in north Europe. That said, intense updraft at centre of cyclonic storms is very efficient heat transfer mechanism to stratosphere.