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| It’s not often that a world No. 1 who just came off the best season of his career with three huge crowns on different surfaces (the French Open on clay, Wimbledon on grass and the Olympic gold on hardcourts) wasn’t considered a top 3 favourite at the Australian, but Nadal re-injured his knee during the fall and was forced to miss Shanghai and the Davis Cup final. He’s capable of winning a Grand Slam on hardcourts, but in the past, he’s had trouble adjusting his base when attempting to do so, as trying to play more offensively sometimes throws him off his primarily defensive game. He’s already done himself one round better by dissipating the memory of his blowout defeat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in last year’s semis with his heroic win over Fernando Verdasco, but can his legs recover after a five hour plus victory and propel him toward his first Australian Open title? If Nadal wins, he will become the first man since Andre Agassi in 1999 to win majors on three different surfaces. | A three-time champion in Melbourne, Federer fell to the steady onslaught of Novak Djokovic last year. He’s not dominating week in and week out, but he still feels like the hard court majors are his to lose. Who is to doubt him, given that since 2004, he’s won three Australian Opens and five US Opens? He’s a combined 8-0 in Australian and U.S. Open finals, but he never faced his nemesis Nadal in any of those victories. This could be his toughest test. If Federer wins the contest, he will tie Pete Sampras’ all-time Grand Slam mark of 14 majors. | |
| He returned at the start of the year in Doha and took a straight loss to Gael Monfils, saying he was rusty but healthy. In the first three rounds though, the Spaniard has been lethal, happily cutting loose and playing well inside the baseline. He was simply phenomenal in the third round against Tommy Haas, both on offense and defense, quickly put down an exhausted Fernando Gonzalez and then stepped up the pressure late in his three-set victory over Gilles Simon. In the semis, he contested one of the most thrilling matches ever in Melbourne, grunting past Fernando Verdasco in a heroic 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6 (7), 6-7 (1), 6-4 semifinal victory that went 5 hours and 14 minutes. He defines a never-say-die attitude. | He blew though his first three matches, but in the fourth round he was almost run out of the tournament by Tomas Berdych, coming back from two sets down for the first time since 2005. The Swiss passed a major hurdle there, not only because Berdych melted down, but also because the 13-time Grand Slam champion knows how to weave his way through the big moments. In the quarters, he destroyed young sensation Juan Martin del Potro, showing the rest of the tour that he's still the man to beat on hardcourts. Then he schooled a resurgent Andy Roddick in straight sets in the semis. He’s on mission to grab a record tying 14th Slam title and won’t be easily deterred. | |
| Perhaps the fastest man on tour and certainly the tour’s most feared defensive player. He owns a heavy, hooking left-handed forehand, a consistent and forceful two-handed backhand and some of the most hair-raising passing shots ever seen. He never feels like he’s out of the match and he’s been placing his first serves very well. Simply, the No. 1 is a super heavyweight fighter. | What’s not to like: a hard serve that he can smack flat, kick and slice; arguably the most effective hooking forehand ever, and a more than dependable and tricky one-handed backhand. He’s a terrific volleyer when he decides to come to net and has a great eye picking up serves. Plus, despite his cool demeanor, he’s mentally nails-tough. | |
| Against Federer, he’s going to have to play a lot more courageously that he did than in his win over Verdasco, where his foe had him on the run most of the night and registered 95 winners to only 52 from Nadal. It’s critical that he get off to a good start and make Federer feel the pressure, which means to turn up the heat on his offense by swinging harder on his left-handed forehand early in points, going for his slapping two-handed backhand crosscourt, attacking some second serves and only going into completely defensive postures when he’s pressed. If he hadn’t allowed the Verdasco match to go five hours, he might have been able to win this match by simply wearing the Swiss down, but that’s too big of a risk if he’s not 100 per cent. He must take the gloves off when he can and go for an early and decisive knockout. | It will be up to the Swiss to take a fair amount of initiative with his forehand, charge the net more than he normally does and not shy away from attacking Nadal’s big forehand. He has to keep Nadal honest and guessing and cannot allow himself to get stuck in the Spaniard’s treadmill. In the past, Nadal has hurt him badly by spinning twisting serves into his one-handed backhand and also going at that wing with his high topspin forehand. While Federer does not love the net, he must try to close out points here, because on hardcourts, Nadal won’t be able to slide as easily as he does on clay and grass. While he might be tempted to contest long rallies because Nadal might not be 100 per cent post his marathon win over Verdasco, Federer cannot afford to play the match on the Spaniard’s terms. In short, he must blind him with his wizardry. | |
| Nadal leads the head to head with Federer 12-6, but the Swiss has won three out of their five meetings on hardcourts, including a rapid 6-4, 6-1 victory at the 2007 Tennis Masters Cup. Nadal has beaten Federer four consecutive times, but three times were on clay. | Federer and Nadal have met four times at Roland Garros (all wins for the Spaniard) and three times at Wimbledon (Federer is 2-1 there), but have never met on hardcourts in Melbourne or New York. |
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