Rice: Test-Firing Long-Range Missile Would Be 'Provocative Act'

(CBS/AP) 
The North's missile program has been a major security concern in the region, adding to worries about a pursuit of nuclear bombs. North Korea shocked its neighbors when it test-fired an earlier missile version over northern Japan in 1998.

Japan says a new launch would threaten Japanese security and violate an agreement North Korea signed in 2002 and reaffirmed in 2004. Rice said it would also end a self-imposed moratorium on test firings that North Korea has observed since 1999 and a disarmament bargain it struck with the United States and other powers last year.

Rice said a launch now "would once again show North Korea is determined to deepen its isolation, determined not to take a path that is a path of compromise and a path of peace, but rather instead to once again saber-rattle."

The reports of a potential launch came during a prolonged hiatus in nuclear disarmament talks among North and South Korea, China, Japan, the United States and Russia. The earlier disarmament deal gives the North economic rewards for giving up weapons.

The agreement faltered almost as soon as it was announced in September 2005, and the North later walked away from talks in a dispute over a U.S. crackdown on alleged North Korean counterfeiting and fraud.

Many are looking to North Korea's closest ally for a solution, reports CBS News' Celia Hatton (audio). China has been quiet on North Korea's possible plans to test a nuclear missile, but that doesn't mean it isn't trying to influence its neighbor. Beijing has repeatedly said it is against North Korea becoming a nuclear power, and as its largest aid donor, many believe China has the best shot at convincing the North to back down.

There have been no talks since last November.

North Korea says it needs nuclear weapons and a delivery system to counter what it contends are U.S. intentions to invade or topple the government. The United States has repeatedly denied any plans to invade.

U.S. intelligence indicates that the missile was fueled in recent days, said two officials, who requested anonymity because the information comes from sensitive intelligence methods.

The United States assumes North Korea would perform a test, not fire the weapon as an act of war, and could claim afterward that it was launching a space mission, one official said. That would still be considered a violation of the moratorium North Korea has observed since 1999, the official said.

The test would probably take place over water and occur during daylight hours, the official said. The United States would probably know almost instantly.

North Korea is 14 hours ahead of the U.S. East Coast.

Possible reasons for a test now include North Korean anger over a U.S. financial crackdown, which the North calls a form of sanctions, or an attempt to demonstrate that it has more technical prowess than Iran and should get at least as good a deal from the world as Iran has been offered to give up disputed nuclear activities.

"Fresh on the heels of offering Iran an incentives program with all five permanent members in agreement, the U.N. is in a good position to act if Pyongyang breaks its own moratorium on launching missiles," says CBS News foreign affairs analyst Pamela Falk. Calling North Korea's nuclear activities a more dangerous threat than Iran's, Falk adds that "it will take more negotiations if the major powers need to offer a package of incentives comparable to those offered to Tehran."

North Korea referred to its missile program for the first time Monday, but has not said it intends to perform the test.

A North Korean state television broadcast, monitored in Seoul, South Korea, cited a Russian editorial on the missile and said the North "has the due right to have a missile that can immediately halt the United States' reckless aerial espionage activity."

The North has repeatedly complained in recent weeks about alleged U.S. spy planes watching its activities.