Regional Powers Will Tire of Assad, and Conflict

The Assad family’s regime is finished. Some of its regional allies now realize that the status quo ante can no longer be restored. For a large segment of the Sunni majority, Assad can no longer be their president. He has become their children’s assassin.

There is already a de facto territorial division of Syria between the government-controlled areas in the center and west and the rebel-controlled areas in the north and east over which Assad has irrevocably lost control. While each side continues to try to shift that division in its favor, neither will succeed. After more than two years, each party has already invested the men and the resources that are at its disposal. Going forward, a war of attrition is the most likely scenario.

The Geneva II talks, now scheduled to start Jan. 22, will officially usher in Syria’s international deal-making phase. Yet those negotiations will not produce a peace agreement anytime soon. While U.S.-Russian talks were critical in getting the regime to surrender its chemical arsenal, four regional war funders, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Iran, will be consequential to ending the civil war itself.

For now, each is more focused on outright victory for their favored camps. Despite talk of Syria exporting conflict into neighboring states, these states have exported their own rivalries to Syria.

Saudi Arabia has said it will do whatever it takes “for as long as proves necessary” to end Tehran’s influence in Syria and spoil Iran’s regional aspirations.

Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar, have been willing to support extremist groups in order to end Assad’s killing machine. But each nation is vying for influence in Syria by throwing their resources behind different armed opposition groups.

Turkish ambitions for a leadership role in the Arab neighborhood irk the Saudis and Iranians alike. Iran has trained and provisioned Assad’s forces, provided the regime with critical intelligence, and counseled its Lebanese and Iraqi proxies to join the fight on Assad’s behalf. It desires a place at the negotiating table so it can secure its interests in Syria.

When the conditions are ripe for a deal, a regional agreement must address Assad’s future and how to reign in Sunni extremist groups. Iran and Russia hold the key to Assad’s future. Putin will abandon Assad if the alternative is not a failed state run by Sunni extremists.

Iranian policymakers have been discreet about their flexibility on Assad’s ultimate fate. Meanwhile Iran’s foreign policy and military institutions have diversified their ties in Syria to include emergent military organizations that are not squarely affiliated with Assad. On the other side, will Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey be in a position to reign in the extremist groups that will oppose any deal in Syria? Militarily, Turkey is best positioned to shoulder this task though when the time comes, it would prefer not to go at it alone

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