Fighting Will Not Stop While Assad Remains

Bashar al-Assad might be on top in the media war. Savage extremists are dominating the headlines about Syria, and moderate rebels on whom the United States and its allies spent billions over months are nowhere to be seen. It is natural that more and more people view Assad as indispensable if Syria is to be saved from itself.

But a future for Syria with Assad is more of a slogan than a thought-out solution. Beyond the moral considerations, there are practical reasons that Assad cannot hold on to power.

Without his removal one cannot imagine an end to the violence in Syria. How do you deal with extremists while Assad remains? Hunt them down? How do you roll the regime’s army into liberated areas? How would you decide the sectarian or regional make up of the officers and soldiers in each area?

The majority of rebels are determined to fight till the bitter end. But if Assad goes, most of those will agree to work with the regime’s institutions if new leadership offers assurances that they will not be hunted down, and provides a viable, credible road map for a government transition.

To be sure, there will be many who will keep fighting and killing but the numbers and the ferocity of these elements would be far greater if Assad stayed in power. Many of the fighting groups, not only the moderates but the Islamists too, have been alienated and attacked by Al Qaeda elements. Though they are boiling with anger, any fight against anti-Assad fighters is vehemently rejected by ordinary people and by the rebel leaders as we have frequently seen. Foreign fighters can claim legitimacy as long as Assad is in power.

Do most Syrians wish for some sort of transition to peace? Yes of course. A parent who can only watch helplessly as a barrel lobbed from a helicopter obliterates his children will accept almost any alternative to the bloodshed. Yet the man responsible for the helicopter and barrel cannot win the country’s acceptance, and people will not stop fighting him until he is gone.

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