Pre-Match Analysis
Day 15 - Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Head-to-head
| Djokovic trails in the head-to-head matchup with Nadal, 21-15, but he has been the better player over their careers on hard courts. Nadal won their most recent matchup on cement, in a third-set tiebreak in Montreal, but overall Djokovic leads the hard-court head-to-head between the two, 11-6. They have met twice before in the US Open final, with Nadal winning in 2010 and Djokovic emerging as the victor in 2011. | Nadal leads the head-to-head series, 21-15, in the most oft-played men's matchup of the Open era. He also has won five of their last six meetings, though the last two have been spandex tight: Nadal topped his rival in the semifinals of the French Open, 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7, 9-7, and in Montreal, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. |
Will win if...
| He rediscovers the form he showed earlier in the tournament. Djokovic was clearly off his game in his five-set semifinal win over Stanislas Wawrinka, struggling with his backhand and lollipopping in his second serves. That said, Djokovic knows what it takes to win big matches and what it takes to defeat Nadal. He has the level to win the title, but if he plays the final as he did the semifinals, the Spaniard will be the one hoisting the trophy. | He continues to play aggressively. Nadal's losses to Djokovic have come when he retreats too far beyond the baseline and allows the Serb to dictate play -- a move that takes the sting out of Nadal's wicked ground strokes. This is a battle of the two most relentless players in the game; the man who presses the action is more likely to come away with the championship. |
Heading in...
| Djokovic cruised through the early rounds but struggled mightily against Wawrinka in the semifinals. He was outplayed through the first three sets but, in typical Djokovic fashion, found a way to hang in there and win at the end. As he said afterward, he is accustomed to these situations and knows what it takes to pull out close matches -- and based on their history, this should be a close match. | The Spaniard has been positively dominant thus far. He has dropped his serve just once in his six matches and has lost just one set, in a tiebreak to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the fourth round. Nadal has played just one other tiebreak thus far, which he won, 7-1, in the second set against Richard Gasquet in the semifinals. |
Look out for...
| His ground strokes. The left-handed Nadal is very difficult on most right-handers because the wicked spin he imparts on the ball eats up their backhand, the weaker side for most men. That is not the case with Djokovic. He is (usually) rock solid off both wings and has the ability to step into the court, neutralizing the high kick off Nadal's groundies by taking the ball on the rise. He will have to do so again on Monday. | His down-the-line backhand. Nadal possesses perhaps the best forehand in tennis, and he does whatever he can to hit as many forehands as possible. But perhaps the biggest reason for Nadal's surge up the rankings this year has been his down-the-line backhand, a change-of-pace-and-direction shot he will need to keep Djokovic on the move in the final -- and one that he had neglected when Djokvovic took control of their rivalry in 2011, winning six in a row. |
Know this stat
| Djokovic has reached the final at the last seven hard-court majors, winning the Australian Open each of the last three years and advancing to the final here each year since 2010. In doing so, he has established himself as the world's premier player on the surface. | Nadal is 21-0 on hard courts in 2013, with titles at Masters Series events in Indian Wells, Montreal and Cincinnati. Djokovic has been the best player on hard courts over the last few years, but that honor has thus far belonged to Nadal in 2013. |
X-factor
| Fatigue. Djokovic looked worn out in the Wimbledon final, when he fell to Andy Murray in straight sets after defeating Juan Martin del Potro in five sets in the semifinals. He'll have to rebound from a five-setter again Monday, but he should be fresher this time around. While Djokovic's semifinal win over Stan Wawrinka went more than four hours, he has spent just 12 hours, 55 minutes on court thus far in the tournament -- four minutes less than Nadal. | Confidence. Nadal is on an incredible roll. He has lost just one match since April, having won six of the last seven tournaments he has entered, and he has dropped just one set this tournament. In 2011, it appeared Djokovic had gotten inside Nadal's head. That seems unlikely to be the case on Monday. |
