Pacific Money Economics and Business

The 21st century is commonly referred to as the 'Pacific Century.' For such a prediction to materialize, the economies of the Asia-Pacific must lead the globe. What challenges will the region face? What nations stand to benefit most? The Diplomat's economics and business blog, Pacific Money, will try to tackle these questions and more.

AT&T Discontinuing HTC’s Facebook’s Phone?

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Just one month after the HTC First was released, AT&T has already reportedly decided to discontinue it due to poor sales.

The HTC First, or the “Facebook phone” as it is often called, was released among high expectations as it was the first device to ship with the new Facebook Home feature pre-installed. This came after months of speculation that the popular social networking site was preparing to enter the mobile phone industry in a big way.

As The Diplomat reported in April when the HTC First’s existence was first confirmed, Facebook Home “replaces your phone’s regular home-screen and delivers a new user interface that is focused mainly on people and social interactions,” with the idea being that it would enable users to more easily interact with their contacts.

From the start things did not go well for Facebook or the Taiwan-based HTC. Reviews were lukewarm at best for the device. In reviewing the HTC First and its Facebook Home Feature, ABC News remarked, “A Nice Place to Visit, but Not Quite Home.”

Starting at an initial retail price of US$99.99 with a two-year contract, already significantly lower than the nearly US$200 high-end competitors like the iPhone go for, AT&T announced last week that they were lowering the price of the Facebook Phone… to US$0.99. That’s a sizeable reduction for any month; it’s nothing short of a catastrophe when the reduction is made one month after a product’s release.

Amazingly, things have continued to get worse for Facebook, if BGR, a popular mobile phone site is to be believed.

Earlier this week BGR’s Zach Epstein reported, citing a “trusted source” within AT&T, that the company has decided to discontinue the phone altogether.

Epstein writes:

“Our source at AT&T has confirmed that the HTC First, which is the first smartphone to ship with Facebook Home pre-installed, will soon be discontinued and unsold inventory will be returned to HTC. How much unsold inventory is there? We don’t have an exact figure, but things aren’t looking good. According to our source, AT&T sold fewer than 15,000 units nationwide through last week when the phone’s price was slashed to $0.99.”

Epstein went on to say that the source did not give him an exact date for when AT&T would stop selling the HTC First, but that it was trying to unload as much inventory as possible by offering the phone for 99 cents. Our guess is that this leak just complicated that plan.

If the rumor is accurate, this certainly constitutes another huge setback for Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, the first being its disastrous IPO offering. Still, social media is so integrated into so many people’s everyday lives that it has the resilience to overcome the occasional blunder. Then again, given the dismal reports on Zuckerberg’s recent effort to get into the lobbying industry, these blunders might be a more frequent occurrence.

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Galaxy S4 Mini, Galaxy S4 Zoom, and Galaxy S4 Active: What You Need to Know

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Samsung is well known for its ability to release a wide range of smartphones over the course of a year, and 2013 is no exception.

Besides the already-launched Galaxy S4 and the sought-after Galaxy Note 3, Samsung is planning two more phablets under the “Mega” moniker. And several recent rumors suggest the company’s lineup will soon expand even further.

Specifically, over the past few weeks the mobile world has been assaulted by several leaks and rumors regarding the so-called Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini, Galaxy S4 Zoom and Galaxy S4 Active. What can we expect from these handsets?

Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini

The Samsung Galaxy S(x) Mini series is not a figment of someone’s imagination. This mid-range lineup made its debut last year with the Galaxy S3 Mini, and according to a handful of leaks and rumors, the Mini series will soon receive a new member – the Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini

The S4 Mini is all but officially announced at this point. Pictures of the device have already surfaced, revealing the handset’s overall design (similar to the Galaxy S4).

Judging by a leaked spec-sheet, the SGS4 Mini could arrive with a 4.3 inch Super AMOLED display featuring a resolution of 540 x 960, 1 or 2 GB of RAM (for the 3G and LTE-enabled variant respectively), 32 GB of internal storage, an 8 megapixel rear-facing camera, a 2,100 mAh battery and Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich).

More importantly, the spec-sheet suggests that S4 Mini’s CPU (Exynos 5210) will be built according to ARM’s LITTLE.big processor architecture – a Cortex-A7 core working in turns with a Cortex-A15 core. The CPU will allegedly be clocked at 1.6 GHz.

The handset is expected to arrive in the US, via AT&T, with the model number “SGH-I257″ (as reported by Pocket Now). Availability-wise, rumors have pointed towards a mid-July release, during week 29 of the year.

Samsung Galaxy S4 Zoom

Another Samsung smartphone that could hit the market in the near(ish) future is the so-called Galaxy S4 Zoom, a camera-centric handset that will apparently feature a 16 MP sensor.

According to rumors, the SGS4 Zoom borrows the 16 MP sensor from the existing Samsung Galaxy Camera. The sensor would be capable of 10x optical zoom.

There’s not much else to say regarding this handset, other than the idea that it would boast a design similar to the Galaxy S4 Mini. Spec-wise, the Zoom could feature a 4.3 inch AMOLED display, 8 GB of storage expandable by up to 64 GB via microSD, and Android 4.1 Jelly Bean.

As far as the handset’s purported release date goes, sources of Sam Mobile have reported that the Galaxy S4 Zoom should be available in black and white flavors, with the black model arriving during week 23 (June 3 – June 9). The white model should follow shortly after, during week 25 (June 17 – June 23).

Samsung Galaxy S4 Active

The third and last (but definitely not least) rumored S4 spin-off is the so-called Samsung Galaxy S4 Active. The existence of this device was first hinted by Samsung’s Young Soo Kim during the SGS4 launch event held in Dubai.

Ever since, the Active has continued to resurface on the web in the form of rumors and leaks, bolstering the idea that it is indeed a real device. Evidently, the Active hasn’t been officially confirmed and until the Korean manufacturer announces it, anything can change.

Nevertheless, the handset has already been spotted on the official Bluetooth SIG website, and if the Active turns out to be real, here’s what you can expect:

First things first, in theory, this gadget will be based on the original Samsung Galaxy S4 model, which means that most of the hardware features found in the S4 will also be found in the SGS4 Active. These include a 5 inch 1080p Super AMOLED display, a Snapdragon 600 or an Exynos 5 Octa processor, 2 GB of RAM, a 13 MP camera and Android 4.2.2 Jelly Bean. But the one thing that would make the Active unique is that it will allegedly be a rugged smartphone, featuring both dust and water resistance.

Once again, according to sources, the SGS4 Active (model number GT-I9295) could become available for purchase during week 26 of the year.

All in all, judging by the volume of rumors that have been making the rounds, Samsung has big plans for this year, encompassing pretty much every imaginable niche.

As always, don’t hesitate to share your opinions in the comments. Would you be interested in one of these smartphones?

Vlad Andrici is editor for gforgames.com and writes about technology issues.

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IEA: North American Oil to Transform Global Market in Next 5 Years

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The rise in North America’s oil production will transform global markets over the next five years, the International Energy Administration (IEA) said in a yearly report published on Tuesday.

“The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil production will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15 years,” the IEA said in its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR).

The report forecast that North America, led by the United States and Canada, would see its oil production rise by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018. This will constitute more than half of the non-OPEC growth in oil production, the report stated.

“North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at an industry event where the report was launched on Tuesday.

He added: “The good news is that this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several years. The technology that unlocked the bonanza in places like North Dakota can and will be applied elsewhere, potentially leading to a broad reassessment of reserves. But as companies rethink their strategies, and as emerging economies become the leading players in the refining and demand sectors, not everyone will be a winner.”

Indeed, the report forecasts that global production growth will significantly outstrip demand over the next five years, by a margin of 1.5 mb/d.

The report did note that its estimates of North American oil production were based on the assumption that the necessary investments in infrastructure would be made.

Another notable statistic in the report was the IEA’s forecast that oil demand in non-OECD countries would be larger than demand in OECD countries for the first time. Also transforming global supply chains over the next five years, according to the IEA, will be the increase in the oil refining and storage capacities of non-OECD countries.

Zachary Keck is Assistant Editor of The Diplomat.

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Google I/O Event Expected to Launch New Nexus Lines

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As a company, Google is well beyond the point where its main objective is to deliver the best search engine. The Mountain View giant is responsible, among other things, for the launch of many smartphones through its Android operating system (OS). Additionally, during the past few years Google has also gained a quite a following thanks to the Nexus series, which features a lineup of smartphones and tablets.

We’ve become accustom to the idea that Google has something new to reveal every year, which is why every smartphone and tablet enthusiast is looking forward to the next Google I/O event – the conference where the company typically unveils its upcoming creations.

Until an official announcement, Google’s new products are usually shrouded in mystery. However, rumors and leaks always surface, giving a peek behind the curtain.

Without further ado, here’s what every tech enthusiast expects to see at this year’s Google I/O event.

Google Nexus 5

The Nexus smartphone series is one of the highest regarded lines on the mobile market. This series has not only shown gadget enthusiasts the benefits of owning a pure Android device, but last year’s Nexus 4 proved that a lower price tag doesn’t always mean poor quality.

But with the inevitable passage of time, each handset is slowly but surely heading towards the dreaded EOL (end of life) status. The Nexus 4 is a great smartphone, but the competition has evolved. High-end devices are now expected to pack 1080p displays, better cameras and much more powerful processors. In other words, Google will need to launch a Nexus 5 sooner or later in order to be able to compete.

Interestingly enough, the latest rumors indicate that the Nexus 5 might actually hit the shelves sooner than anticipated. There is a possibility that the handset could end up on stage during the Google I/O event.

This idea picked up steam after several retailers took the Nexus 4 off their shelves. When that happens, it usually means they are making room for a successor.

Evidently there’s no way to be absolutely sure whether the Nexus 5 will indeed be unveiled at this year’s Google I/O. But what if it will? What can we expect?

Well, the device in question is rumored to pack a 4.5 inch 720p display or a 5-inch 1080p panel, a Nikon 9 MP rear-facing camera, a Snapdragon 600/800 CPU, 3 GB of RAM and either a 2,800 or a 3,000 mAh battery. Android 4.3 is also expected to be on-board.

Nexus 4 LTE/White Model

There have been several so-called “leaks” on the AnTuTu benchmark website, indicating that a Google Nexus 4 with LTE capabilities may be somewhere out there in the hands of a tester. However, it’s not out of the question for AnTuTu benchmark results to be faked. That said, there’s a lot of skepticism surrounding the possibility of an LTE-enabled Nexus 4 to be making the rounds during Google’s I/O event.

In any case, rumors suggest that even if there’s no LTE model in the works, the Nexus 4 might still be one of the event’s highlights. To be more precise, a few months ago there was tremendous buzz regarding a handful of leaked pictures depicting a white Nexus 4. And when everybody seemed to have forgotten about it, the white flavor made a comeback.

With the above being said, it’s not out of the question for Google to launch a white Nexus 4 in the near future. What better place to do it other than at the I/O event?

Next Nexus 7 Tablet

The Google Nexus 7 tablet is also one of the best examples of the company’s ability to directly affect the mobile market, in a good way. Before the Nexus 7, most analysts (and Steve Jobs himself) believed that 7-inch tablets were “dead on arrival.” Needless to say, Google proved them wrong and the Nexus 7 became one of the most successful and budget-friendly tablets in the world.

With all the hype built around the 7-inch slate, there’s no wonder why many enthusiasts are waiting for a successor to be unveiled during Google I/O.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has even sent a note to his clients containing information on what they can expect from the new Nexus 7 tablet. He anticipated the device will be powered by Android 4.3, a Snapdragon S4 Pro CPU, and could feature a 7 inch 1200 x 1920 display as well as a 5 MP camera on the back. The new Nexus 7 is also predicted to be powered by a 4,000 mAh battery and feature Qi standard wireless charging capabilities.

With expectations high, Google will hopefully deliver once again. But please keep in mind that the information shared above is based on rumors and leaks, and nothing is official until Google says so.

Google I/O will take place in Moscone Center, San Francisco on May 15-17. Until then, don’t hesitate to leave a comment and let us know what you would personally like to see on stage.

Vlad Andrici is editor for gforgames.com and writes about technology issues.

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America’s Undiminished Power of Attraction

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President Obama has nominated two representatives who will lead United States trade talks over the next two years: Michael Froman, former White House economic aide as U.S. Trade Representative and Penny Pritzker, Hyatt scion and Chicago fund raiser as the new Secretary of Commerce. Together their appointments signal America’s new focus on increasing international trade as a stimulus to the domestic economy. The two representatives will deal with proposals for a customs accord with the European Union (TAFTA and an investment agreement) and a commercial union with Pacific nations in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But the new stress on trade represents a more profound reorientation than just a new way of seeking economic development. It underscores America’s undiminished power of attraction to other countries in both international politics and economics.

Many have speculated that the (relative) decline in U.S. GDP compared with rising Asia (only partly offset by the recent inclusion of new investment indicators in GDP measures) could inaugurate a new era of global uncertainty and instability. These critics have correctly pointed out that rising countries frequently get into conflict with established hegemonic powers as Germany did with Britain in 1914 and as Russia did for a considerable time with America after 1950. Harvard’s Joseph Nye and others have countered that America’s “soft power” partly mitigates this decline. A country’s “soft power” offered a global example of effectiveness in its society, democracy, or culture which other countries might be tempted to emulate.

More important, however, is the political and economic attraction which flows from America’s soft power as well as from trade arrangements the U.S. is consummating with Europe and Asia.

In the past great theorists like Machiavelli and later Hobbes never understood that the balance of power could be transformed internationally. They did not realize that the world was not condemned to endless balance of power rivalries. Every now and then “powers of attraction” would create a stunning overbalance of force in which joining parties would emerge satisfied. In Europe it did so for a half century after 1815. The Cold War came to an end because the United States had created an overbalance of power that made Soviet resistance counterproductive and ultimately attracted Moscow to begin (the still unfinished) process of political and economic reform.

Today, the United States stands athwart Asian and European worlds. It offers trade and investment to both continents. The attractive force of America’s open invitation to join a greater economic unit can change the game of world politics. If TAFTA and an investment agreement are negotiated, the U.S. and the EU would then represent an economic unit of $32 trillion, about half of world GDP (of $61 trillion). If TPP emerges, it would combine an additional $2.3 trillion; if Japan, Canada and Mexico join, as seems likely, another $7.9 would be inputted into the growing commercial enterprise, rendering a total of over $40 trillion.

Those who center attention on the U.S.- China rivalry and its potential consequences do not fully observe the attractive force of customs unions in this process. China’s $8 trillion GDP could not stand against or balance such a combination of economic strength. An overbalance of power would be concerted that China would then have to join. Where else could it sell its goods? Where else could it get the revenue to continue to import the largest share of energy on the planet? The balance of power would then yield to overbalance, and Beijing, perhaps ineluctably would be drawn into a more cooperative trading unit in world politics. China may of course have other short term ideas, but in the longer run, its own economic development will depend upon sturdy economic connections with the West, Japan, and free Asia. An overbalance will then begin to assert itself.

Richard Rosecrance is an adjunct professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he is director of the Belfer Center’s Project on U.S.-China Relations. He is author of the forthcoming book Resurgence of the West (Yale University Press, 2013). This piece original appeared on the Harvard Kennedy School Power and Policy Blog.

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Playing the China Economic Data Game

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China’s monthly data releases are watched more closely than those of many other countries. The latest data (for April 2013) have proven to be no different.

On the one hand it is natural for analysts and commentators to pour over the data for the world’s second largest economy, and yet the reliability of some or all of the data can often be called into question – leaving research arms and analyst teams struggling, sometimes coming up with their own measures, and sometimes cherry-picking the data from China’s official releases. What’s more, the lack of a respected measure for unemployment, and problems with rural output indicators automatically increases the importance of the other data points.

Whether it is one of China’s three Purchasing Manager’s Indices (PMIs), China’s trade data, Inflation (either the consumer price index – CPI, or Producer Price Index – PPI), monthly RMB lending by the banks - now superseded by the Social Financing measure (which includes several other “non-bank” financing channels), or the numbers for industrial production (IP) or fixed-asset investment (FAI), there is usually “something for everyone.”

April provides a good example of this phenomenon.  The two manufacturing PMIs and the services PMI all showed expansion, yet also were weaker than previous months (and forecasts). Social financing measures showed credit creation easing from nearly 2.5 trillion RMB in March to just over 1.7trillion in April. Those worrying about debt build-ups may see relief, but 1.7 trillion RMB is still a high number (higher than all but two monthly totals for 2012), and the total for the first four months of 2013 is already 7.7 trillion RMB even as the economy seems to be weakening.  All this credit creation may suggest a pick-up is imminent, but whether further investment or capacity expansion is desirable is yet another question, as is the amount of risk involved in some of these “shadow” financing channels.

Year-on-year CPI for April was up 2.4%, lower than the government’s target for the year, but higher than the March figure. Much of the increase was in vegetable costs, whilst non-food items remained subdued. The PPI remained negative, showing that producer prices fell for a 14th straight month, suggesting that the overcapacity across many sectors which has afflicted China since at least the global financial crisis began is ongoing (and has prompted talk of an imminent plan to deal with it).Falling inflation could of course give the government room to ease policy and support growth, yet the slight up-tick in the CPI figure from March to April could be a worrying sign.

Trade data has garnered a lot of attention over the last couple of months, and anomalies in the data leave severe doubts about the picture being painted – in particular large discrepancies between Chinese figures for exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong’s figures  (usually considered more reliable) for imports from China. The widely acknowledged explanation is that China’s 14.7% increase for exports actually reflects individuals and companies using false export invoices to bring capital back on-shore. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), responsible for dealing with China’s currency reserves under the People’s Bank of China, highlighted such suspicions when it announced a crack down on such activities last week.

Nonetheless, China’s data, when taken together with several previous months, does provide at least some measure of what is going on in the economy, even if single data points can be called into question. The current picture is of an economy receiving heavy injections of financing, but which has so far failed to show much signs of improvement or the feared inflation.  China’s GDP data is published every quarter, not every month, so we must wait until July to see if China is still slowing or has begun to pick up again.  Then again, there are even doubts about the GDP data itself, and from one important person in particular.

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Japan’s Bold Experiment

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“Abenomics,” QE-Squared, or “the dash for Trash," are all terms to describe Japan’s highly unorthodox economic policies under Abe.  With the rare (in central banking circles) policy of deliberately targeting higher inflation, Japan’s bold experiment in ending its “lost decades” reached yet another milestone this week.

With the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) massive programme of easing well underway, the level of the Yen has been a focus of much speculation and attention from financial professionals. This last week, the Yen dropped below what market participants and pundits term a key “psychological” barrier. It weakened to more than 100Y to the USD for the first time since the post-crisis dollar spike and unwinding of the carry trade – back in April 2009.

Psychological barriers are not just conveniently round numbers, they tend to become focus points at which certain trading strategies are triggered, particularly amongst hedge funds and in currency markets.  As the Yen weakened below the all important Y100:1USD mark, for many traders the next “barrier” will be Y110:1USD.

The weak Yen, whether an intended consequence or a welcome side-effect of Abe’s easing programme, is expected to give a welcome boost to Japan’s export sector, particularly those companies competing against Korean, American and Chinese rivals. 

Indeed, even though changes have begun at home  much of the effects of Japan’s “Abenomics” will be felt abroad.  The weaker Yen will pressure Japan’s competitors on world markets. Hence, as the Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly cut  its benchmark interest rates this week, it cited pressure from the weak Yen as one of the motivating factors.

Whilst the other advanced economies apparently signed off on Japan’s moves during recent international summits, and the IMF considers the current Yen level “appropriate”, there is no guarantee that the international environment will remain as permissive going forward.

For one thing, so far Japanese investors have not been shorting their currency, even as hedge funds across the globe have been reaping profits from such trades.  It is unknown whether or not Japan’s influential retail investors will get involved in the trade, but if they do, they can bring considerable pressure to bear.  Having broken through the Y100 barrier, there is considerable potential for the Yen to fall even further; the Y110 level no longer seems unlikely. 

There is no guarantee that Japan would want such an outcome. Since Fukushima, energy import bills have soared, and a weakened Yen contributed to the monthly trade deficit in March.  Meanwhile, despite acquiescence so far, Japan received a foreboding warning from the United States  ahead of the G7 summit in the UK. 

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Windows 8 Blue: Release Date? Start Button Return? PC Savior?

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The Windows 8 operating system has attracted a tremendous amount of mixed opinions ever since it was launched, about six months ago. Users who have spent some time with the OS have found it both functional (on tablets) and rather annoying (on desktop machines without touchscreen support). And although it sounds impressive, Microsoft has been disappointed by the 100 million licenses that have been sold since the new platform was released.

PC sales have also declined in the past few months with some speculating that flaws in the latest MS operating system are the cause. Whichever the case, the situation might change once the Windows 8 “Blue” update goes live.

Do you happen to own a Windows 8 machine? Have you been disappointed by some of the new features, or lack thereof? If this is the case then you might be interested to find out how the “Blue” update could improve your experience with Microsoft’s latest OS.

Windows 8 Blue Update – What It Could Bring

According to users, two of the most annoying characteristics of Windows 8 are the lack of the familiar Start button and the fact that the system can’t be booted into desktop mode. Instead, the user is greeted by the a new interface that seems to be more touch-screen-centric than anything else.

Fortunately, the Windows 8 Blue update might change this. According to Tami Reller (the chief financial officer and chief marketing officer of the Microsoft Windows division), the feedback offered by customers hasn’t gone unheard:

We feel good that we’ve listened and looked at all of the customer feedback. We are being principled, not stubborn“.

Although there’s no clear indicator of what changes will be implemented with the Blue update, the lack of a start button has been one of the most cried-over changes. That being said, if Microsoft intends on bringing any improvements that would be tailored according to customer feedback, the addition of a Start button would be one the best places to start with.

Microsoft has already successfully addressed certain issues as roughly 740 Windows 8 updates and tweaks have been implemented since the OS was launched. Digging into the past, the UAC (User Account Control) feature present on Windows Vista has been one of the most hated characteristics of the respective OS, but Microsoft listened to the feedback and Windows 7 delivered a better experience. Let’s hope the company will do the same with Windows 8 and its Blue update.

Aside from the aforementioned features, the upcoming update is also planned to expand the operating system’s reach to more types of devices than ever before. According to Reller, Windows 8 Blue will “deliver the latest new innovations across an increasingly broad array of form factors of all sizes, display, battery life and performance, while creating new opportunities for our ecosystem.”

With rumors indicating that Microsoft is planning on launching a new Surface tablet that would have a smaller display than the current models (RT and Pro), the increased flexibility brought by the Blue update makes sense, not only for MS, but for other tablet manufacturers as well. Asus’ CEO Jerry Shen has recently revealed to the Wall Street Journal that he expects smaller Windows 8-powered tablets to hit the market by the end of the year. He also anticipates that these slates will be retailed at a price lower than $300.

Windows 8 Blue Update – When It Could Go Live

I’m fairly sure that the majority of Windows 8 users are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the so-called Blue update. Any improvement is always welcomed, and when some of the most frowned upon concerns are expected to be addressed, you can sense a feeling or relieve and excitement.

On short, Windows 8 Blue (or Windows 8.1) will go live “later this year”. We’re well aware that this timeframe could mean anywhere between one and six months, so we’re not going to leave it at that.

What we’ve learned from Tami Reller is that Microsoft will unveil more details about the Blue update in the coming weeks. There will be two main news updates in the future, one of which will address the official name of the update, packaging and pricing. The second news update is expected to take place before the end of June and will address the technical vision of Blue.

In any case, it’s pretty obvious that the update will not go live earlier than Microsoft’s developer conference in San Francisco which will take place between June 26 and June 28.

We’d like to hear from you in the comments section, so don’t hesitate to share your opinion about Windows 8 and the Blue update. What other improvements would you like to see in the future?

Vlad Andrici is editor for gforgames.com and writes about technology issues.

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Can Amazon Find Success in China?

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With Chinese leaders declaring their intention to transition to a more consumption-driven economy in the years ahead, everyone from Hollywood to Apple is aggressively seeking to get its share.

Apple, for instance, issued a rare apology and rushed its CEO across the Pacific after China’s state media used the company as a punching bag for the better part of the week. Hollywood has also dispatched its bigwigs to China even as it does everything from jointly producing films with Chinese companies and feature Chinese movie stars in them, to altering the type of blood shown in the movies and allowing Chinese regulators to be on set overseeing the filming, all in an attempt to win a share of the now largest film market.

But perhaps no company has more of an interest in China’s future consumption based economy, at least objectively speaking, than the world’s largest online retailer, Amazon. This is because e-commerce is exploding right now in China with 2012 registering a yearly growth of 64 percent. With US$210.4 billion in sales, online shopping accounted for 6.3 percent of all retail sales in China last year, and this is expected to double by 2015. In terms of the numbers of individuals doing their shopping online, China oversaw a 10 percent growth rate to 564 million people in 2010. Only India has a larger e-commerce market measured in terms of the number of consumers.

None of this has been lost on Amazon Inc. Indeed, it entered China eight years ago and operates through a local company, Joyo.com, which it has acquired for US$75 million. After failing to meet Wall Street’s expectations earlier this year, Amazon’s Chief Financial Officer Tom Szkutak promised investors that China was one locale the company was “investing in heavily.”

So far this investment has not paid off. According to Bloomberg News, Amazon holds less than a 1 percent share of China’s e-commerce market (which is dominated by Alibaba) and this figure has remained stagnant for four years.

Its recent efforts to reinvigorate its brand in China have oscillated between unimpressive to bizarre. For instance, the company’s trademark product in the United States is undoubtedly its Kindle tablet and e-reader, and the Kindle store. It therefore seemed puzzling that Amazon didn’t feature a Kindle store on its Chinese website until it launched one in December last year. By this time Amazon’s Kindle Store— which was a pioneer in the e-book industry in the United States— was entering a crowded market place in China. Some competitor sites, for instance, had four times the amount of Chinese-language book as Amazon’s Kindle Store.

Moreover, when the Kindle store arrived in China it was missing one key ingredient: the Kindle itself. Owing to regulatory difficulties and complications in launching its cloud service—which is required for users to store and access the books they purchase—Amazon went ahead with the launch of its Kindle store in China without having a release date when Chinese online consumers could purchase a Kindle Fire or Kindle e-reader.

Instead, they could read Kindle books using a Kindle app on their iPhones, iPads or Android devices. In other words, they could enjoy an Amazon ebook using one of its two largest rivals’ devices. Meanwhile, as Amazon struggled to get its cloud service up and running in China, local competitors like Alibaba’s Aliyun (Ali Cloud) and even Western brands like Drop Box were competing fiercely for market shares in China.

Eventually, Amazon’s cloud service was released in China the middle of last month. Yet this was almost overshadowed by the announcement that Amazon was opening its Android apps stores in some 200 countries including such tourist hotspots as Antarctica. One place that wasn’t on the list, however, was China. Then, out of nowhere, Amazon did open an app store in China over the weekend.

Thus all the pieces are in place for Amazon to launch its Kindle Fire and possibly e-reader in China. But given Amazon’s woes up to now, its long-term success in the Chinese market is anything but certain.

Zachary Keck serves as assistant editor for The Diplomat.

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Australia’s Realist Malaysian Policy

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Australia’s Foreign Minister Bob Carr has defended putting economics first in ties with Malaysia, saying it was “improper” to intervene over alleged election irregularities.

Speaking Tuesday to the Australia Malaysia Business Council (AMBC) Qld in Brisbane, the Labor senator said the Australian government would not respond to claims by independent Senator Nick Xenophon of “massive cheating.”

“We’re not in a position to do as Senator Xenophon has asked us to do, and be a court of disputed returns. We have no way of telling whether the ink on a voter’s fingers washed off easily, or whether the regulations around political parties are sound – it’s up to the Malaysian people,” Carr said.

“We’ve got to have robust relations with Malaysia so there’s no impediment to doing business, so Malaysians feel happy about coming here and investing in Australia…I think the foreign policy position of Malaysia, recognizing ASEAN’s centrality, dealing with China and being friendly with Australia, will stay.”

On Sunday, Malaysia’s ruling coalition won the nation’s 13th general election to extend its 56-year reign, despite securing only 49 percent of the vote. Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim described the result as the “worst electoral fraud in our history”.

Carr invoked Australia’s 1975 political crisis in defending his approach toward Malaysia, despite criticism that the stance contrasted with Australia’s pro-democracy policy in Fiji, Myanmar and elsewhere in the region.

“We went through a constitutional crisis in 1975, and there wasn’t a country in the world, not even a Cuba or Vietnam, countries on the left of the spectrum, who dared to express a view on what happened. It was our internal affairs and for us to settle, and all those other countries in the world were prepared to work with whatever government emerged in Australia,” he said.

“Malaysian society will evolve and change over time and it would be improper for us to base our foreign policy on a running commentary on their internal political affairs.”

MAFTA boost

Carr pointed to the Malaysia-Australia free trade agreement (MAFTA) that commenced January 1 as an important step in further integrating Australia’s economy with Asia, in line with his government’s “Australia in the Asian Century” white paper.

Two-way trade between the countries reached A$17 billion in the 2012 fiscal year, with Malaysia representing Australia’s 10th largest trading partner and its third-largest in the ASEAN region. Malaysian investment in Australia reached A$14 billion in 2011, up 66 percent on the previous year, with the relationship broadening across trade and investment, education and other exchanges.

“As the MAFTA comes into force, there’s going to be improved access across a broad range of industries – liberalizing the services sector, allowing Australian suppliers to hold majority ownership in education, finance, telecommunications, professional and mining service industries,” he said.

Under MAFTA, virtually all current Australian exports to Malaysia will be tariff-free by 2020, while Australia has eliminated tariffs on Malaysian imports, benefitting agricultural, automotive and resource exports along with service suppliers.

Writing in the New Straits Times, Australian High Commissioner to Malaysia, Milles Kuppa, extolled the deal as a “win-win” for both countries, cementing personal relationships developed through the 116,000-strong Malaysian community in Australia.

“[MAFTA] will bring our economies closer, opening up new opportunities for Malaysian businesses to work with Australian investors and suppliers of goods and services, and enable Malaysian consumers to access many imported Australian goods and services at lower cost,” he wrote.

More FTAs planned?

Amid Australia’s current FTA negotiations with top trading partners China and Japan, Carr said trade minister Craig Emerson had conceded ground to achieve the Malaysia pact.

“Craig Emerson drove that [FTA deal] very hard, but when it got to a sticking point, he told his [Malaysian] counterpart, we’ll forgo that. The Malaysians were struck that an Australian trade minister was prepared to give up something big, something Australia was fighting on, to get this into place,” he said.

Carr said talks with China were focused on gaining access for Australian exporters in agriculture and financial services, hailing the new “strategic partnership” between the two countries.

Meanwhile, FTA negotiations continue with second-largest trading partner Japan, amid speculation of a deal being reached this year.

Carr however warned of potential threats to the region’s outlook from territorial rows and the “middle income trap,” citing problems with governance and corruption in countries such as Laos and Vietnam.

But he said Australia’s “worst nightmare” and the region’s would be a breakdown of the U.S.-China relationship, saying statesmanship was needed on both sides.

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