A one-stop blog for the Asia-Pacific's politics, defence and economics, with insights from the editor and The Diplomat's team of correspondents and analysts from around the region.

Goodbye (and Hello)

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j0219
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Well, as educational and informative as it has been for me (and I hope at least some of our readers) to try and cover the whole of the Asia-Pacific area in one blog, it's time for me to move on to something a little different, so this will be my last entry for APAC Insider.

As part of the redesign for The Diplomat, which goes live next week, we'll be having dedicated India, China and Japan blogs, and will be keeping on our culture blog, New Emissary. We felt that to do justice to all the remarkable changes going on in these three Asian giants, that they really needed their own voice (and in the case of the Indian blog, several voices).

As the site develops, we certainly plan to add to our roster of blogs, but in the meantime we have a growing network of correspondents around the region who will be keeping us abreast of developments outside of the three country blogs. And I also hope you'll join me as I take over our China blog and we consider, among other issues, the one raised by Minxin Pei in one our most popular features so far--is China a superpower?
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Kim Ready to Talk?

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j0218
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There's been a flurry of reports the past couple of weeks suggesting that North Korea is finally ready to return to the Six-party talks on its denuclearisation.

According to the Korea Herald this 'willingness' to reconsider is based largely on the country's deteriorating economic situation:

'Recent reports showed that the North Korean economy may be at its worst, with a record number of people dying of starvation in provincial areas.

'A report by Good Friends, a North Korean human rights group, said in its recent newsletter that many died of hunger in South Pyeongan Province, following a similar report last month that people starved to death in the Hamgyeong region.

'As a further indication of a worsening recession, Pyongyang has been increasingly focusing on economic improvement in many of its editorials and broadcasts.

'In a rare move, it also came out to meet South Korean officials on adjusting the business conditions of the joint industrial park in Gaeseong, which previously served as a major cash cow for the North.'

However, the report also rightly highlights the probability that things are likely not so bad that the country will forfeit its nuclear ambitions. Christian Whitton, a former US State Department official under the George W. Bush administration who advised on North Korea, will be giving his take for The Diplomat next week on the situation, and making some policy recommendations for moving forward. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if there are any indications if Pyongyang is simply going to take what it wants and run--again.
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Deadly Year for Journalists

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The Committee to Protect Journalists has just released its report for 2009, and noted last year was the deadliest so far for members of the media, with 71 deaths in cases where the motive has been confirmed.

This was largely due to the single attack in the Philippines we've discussed elsewhere on the site in which 29 journalists and two media support workers were ambushed and slain in November in Maguindanao Province. As the report notes, the attack underscores a deep-seated impunity in the country.

But even where journalist did not pay with their lives, there was intimidation in Asia's hotspots, and not just from militants. As the report notes:

'During the Swat Valley offensive, as many as 260 local reporters wound up joining the general population in fleeing the all-out attacks by the Pakistani military, according to the Khyber Union of Journalists. Some stayed behind to take their chances, but their coverage was severely limited by the threat of retaliation.

'Because of the dangers faced by local reporters, much of the coverage was provided by Pakistani journalists from outside the region who embedded with the military. Shamsul Islam Naz, secretary-general of the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, told CPJ that the military routinely suppressed stories about the impact of the fighting on the local populace. Other journalists interviewed by CPJ also noted the military's tight restrictions on embedded reporting.'
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Keeping India Together

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As I've mentioned before, managing a country the size of India from the centre is no easy task. But one of the main ongoing challenges to central government authority took a particularly troubling turn with an incident Monday.

Indian authorities have been fighting Maoist separatist rebels known as Naxals or Naxalites for decades now in a conflict that has claimed at least 2000 people in the past few years, according to some sources. But the attack on a police camp that claimed 24 officers' lives was a particularly audacious move and far exceeded the second-highest single tally of seven officers.

As the Statesman newspaper reports:

'According to police, about 70 Maoists riding motorcycles came in front of the camp located inside the Silda Primary Health Centre around 5 p.m. today.

'They cordoned off the camp and later set off a powerful landmine in a urinal outside it. The camp caught fire immediately after the explosion. The [officers] who were resting in the camp or playing football in the hospital ground, rushed out and were fired at by the Maoists.   

'An eyewitness said the Maoists, whose faces were covered with black cloth,  fired indiscriminately at the [officers who] died on the spot.'
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Decisive Victory?

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The major US-led offensive in Afghanistan against militants in Helmand Province is, according to reports, going well--military at least. This probably shouldn't come as a surprise--militants were never going to offer much resistance in a stand-up fight against NATO. So realistically it's always been about what happens next.

Writing on his Washington Note blog, Steve Clemons notes the eerie similarity in the way militants have apparently melted into the local population with the tactics of the Vietcong. He points to this passage in the New York Times to underscore his point:

'On the first full day of operations, much of the expected Taliban resistance failed to materialize. Afghan and NATO troops discovered some bombs, narcotics and weapons caches, but the fighting itself was relatively desultory. There was certainly none of the eyeball-to-eyeball fighting that typified the battle for Falluja in Iraq in 2004, to which the invasion of Marja had been compared.

'Abdul Rahim Wardak, the Afghan defense minister, said in a news conference in Kabul that the Afghan Army had suffered no dead at all, and only a handful of wounded. He seemed a little surprised at the day's events.'

But even if the Taliban have fled the area following the considerable (deliberate) notice they were given of an impending offensive, winning the hearts and minds of locals fearful of their return will be no easy task. Locals will be left in a bind--do they trust NATO, which they know won't be around forever, or hedge their bets.

And as analyst Juan Cole notes in his Informed Comment blog:

'The Afghan government says it has 1900 police ready to go into Marjah and establish long-term order. But if these police prove corrupt, oppressive, or lazy (and many Afghan police are on the take and are regular drug users), then the area could easily fall back under Taliban rule.'
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The Limits of Soft Power

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The newly-launched offensive in Afghanistan's Helmand Province has raised some interesting issues about the importance of soft power, something that the coalition forces still need to master in the fight against the Taliban.
The BBC has an interesting analysis of the use of 'Psy-ops':

'There have been uneasy debates about where the boundary line between this and the traditional press officer's role should be, because, let's face it, the media is an involuntary actor in this drama too.

'However the new discipline of strategic communications seeks to go beyond information operations, press briefings and leaflet drops. It is, in the words of one alliance official, "an over-arching concept that seeks to put information at the very centre of policy planning."'

But what is perhaps most interesting is that despite the supposed difference between strategic communications and the propaganda that has gone before, it's not entirely from this analysis exactly HOW it is different. The only clear difference given by officials is that unlike regular propaganda, 'strategic' communications are supposed to fit with the facts on the ground. But surely any effective propaganda needs to have at least some basis in reality-or at least seem plausible to the recipient-or else it's pointless anyway.

This idea of winning the hearts and minds of Afghans brings me to the other interesting piece I was reading today, this time in The National. But it's a pretty bleak read, raising serious questions about the apparent new US strategy of trying to exploit tribal loyalties in Afghanistan to turn them against the Taliban.

Aside from the fact that I remember these uplifting stories from the outset of this war--there was much breathless media coverage of US forces riding on horses alongside Northern Alliance tribesmen to oust the Taliban--this article questions whether there even are tribal loyalties to be exploited:

'Despite such a rich history of failure, one still finds a common idea in the testimonies, strategy papers and briefings of the policymakers in charge of America's Afghanistan strategy: Afghanistan is a "tribal society", and the exploitation of those tribal ties is the key to fighting the insurgency. Practically every pundit, soldier and official repeats this as an article of faith, to the point where it has strayed into tautology. Because the Taliban is Pashtun, and because Pashtuns are tribal, we therefore must understand the tribes to defeat the Taliban.

'It is one of the most frustrating assertions about Afghanistan, directly contradicted by decades of academic research.'
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Bad Winner?

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How do you reassure supporters of your beaten electoral opponent, especially if many of them hail from a minority that you have vowed to help reintegrate into society, that their voice will get a sympathetic hearing? Presumably not by having the army drag him out of a meeting with supporters just two weeks after you vanquished him.

Yet this is, according to reports, what recently re-elected Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa has just done to General Sarath Fonseka:

'The general is believed to have been arrested in relation to an alleged coup plot against Presidential Mahinda Rajapaksa, but a military statement issued last night said he had been taken into "military custody" in connection with "certain fraudulent acts and other military offences committed by him."

'A military spokesman said "military investigations" were continuing and that a detailed statement will be issued later. He is expected to face a court martial trial.

'Opposition leaders have denounced General Fonseka's arrest as a "brutal, armed kidnapping" in which he and other opposition leaders were physically assaulted by an army major-general.

'"There was no decorum. To call it an arrest gives dignity and legality to what was a brutal abduction. He was beaten, dragged along the floor and bundled into a van," said his presidential campaign spokesman, Mangala Samaraweera.'

Now it's possible that Fonseka does have a case to answer. But the manner of his arrest, and coming just ahead of parliamentary elections, does not inspire confidence that Rajapaksa is interested is looking to reconcile differences. And the fact that he has just dissolved parliament early for said elections suggests his main motivation is pressing his political advantage.

And the president does, sadly, have form in lack of good grace after victory. After defeating the Tamil Tigers, some had hoped--and many urged--Rajapaksa reach out to the Tamil minority after years of bloody civil war. Yet instead he engaged in unpleasant grandstanding, failing to seize the initiative and leaving tens of thousands of refugees in camps.
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China’s Free (and Easy) Speech

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An interesting piece in The Times newspaper yesterday about the apparent deterioration in US-China relations.

'Now almost 55% of those questioned for Global Times, a state-run newspaper, agree that "a cold war will break out between the US and China".

'An independent survey of Chinese-language media for The Sunday Times has found army and navy officers predicting a military showdown and political leaders calling for China to sell more arms to America's foes. The trigger for their fury was Obama's decision to sell $6.4 billion (£4 billion) worth of weapons to Taiwan, the thriving democratic island that has ruled itself since 1949.'

But what is perhaps most troubling is the list of Chinese officials who go on record demanding a forceful response:

'This time China must punish the US," said Major-General Yang Yi, a naval officer. "We must make them hurt." A major-general in the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Luo Yuan, told a television audience that more missiles would be deployed against Taiwan. And a PLA strategist, Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would "qualitatively upgrade" its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown "when we're strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US.'

Such talk can get out of hand. Officials have taken an 'active interest' in stymieing public debate on issues it deems sensitive. But loose words by officials are no less dangerous, especially if they end up binding Beijing's hands.
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Vietnam Digs Heels In

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As the New York Times reports:

'Tensions crept up another notch last month, after China announced plans to develop tourism in the Paracels [Islands], which the Chinese military has controlled since 1974. It was an inauspicious start to what the two governments had officially labelled their "Year of Friendship."'

The islands, and the nearby Spratlys, are coveted by a number of nations in the region for their rich natural gas and oil deposits, and as our APAC 2020 flashpoint special showed, have been a source of tension for years.

What is most interesting about this is the strategy that Vietnam is pursuing. While China is understandably keen to negotiate one-on-one, Vietnam is doing its best to internationalize the issue, starting with Southeast Asian nations.

The piece goes on to say that the big test of this approach will come later this year as:

'Vietnam takes over the leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean. Vietnam is likely to use its position to try to persuade the countries to join territorial negotiations with China, analysts say. In November, Vietnam held a conference in Hanoi, its capital, where 150 scholars and officials from across Asia came to discuss disputes in the South China Sea - an opening salvo in the new strategy, analysts say.'

The US, Taiwan, India, sometimes Japan, Russia (and as Rajeev Sharma mentions in our feature today a restive Northwest border).China has a lot on its plate.
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A Tale of Two (Potential) Coups

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It seems irresistible for some defeated candidates to cry foul when an election doesn't go their way, and Sri Lanka's main opposition candidate is no exception.

As Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe, who wrote an election preview piece for The Diplomat last week focusing on the Tamil vote, notes in a piece for the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, General Sarath Fonseka says the presidential poll was rigged. Unfortunately, for Fonseka, this view is at odds with a number of election monitors.

As DeSilva-Ranasinghe notes:

'The elections, despite some incidents, were endorsed by the Campaign for Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE), the Peoples Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), and the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV). Also, the preliminary post-election report compiled by a five-member Commonwealth team led by former Jamaican Foreign Minister KD Knight confirmed that, "ballots were properly counted" and "overall voting and counting have proceeded reasonably well in most areas."'

This hasn't stopped thousands of Fonseka supporters flocking to the streets of Colombo in protest, while one opposition lawmaker has said Wednesday's moves were just the first step in efforts to challenge President Mahinda Rajapaksa's legitimacy.

It's a dangerous game, and one only need look at Thailand to see the risks, where even routine maintenance checks of military vehicles prompt speculation of an impending coup.

'On the night of Jan. 25, 22 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) were spotted driving through the streets of Bangkok, resembling the scene that had played out on the night of Sept. 19, 2006.

'This time, though, the APCs were on the streets for a more mundane mission: maintenance and repair work. Yet the apologies offered by the military brass for causing panic in politically jittery Thailand did little to slow down the rumour mill.'

Of course where election theft is brazen and/or verifiable - Iran being a good case in point - losing candidates have reasonable grounds to consider taking their case directly to the people. But the problem with trying to delegitimize a leader is that it frequently ends up undermining the office itself, meaning that even on assuming power new leaders find themselves fair game for the next wave of anger whipped up by an unhappy losing candidate.
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