Russia and China are revitalising defence ties at a time when relations of both with the U.S. have run into rough waters
Russia is resuming the supply of advanced weapon platforms to China in a move that may have implications for India.
At the end of last year, Russia concluded a framework agreement with China for the sale of four Amur-1650 diesel submarines. In January it signed another intergovernmental agreement for the supply of Russia’s latest Su-35 long-range fighter planes.
If the deals go through, it will be for the first time in a decade that Russia has delivered offensive weapons to China.
It will also mark the first time that Russia has supplied China with more powerful weapon platforms compared with Russian-built systems India has in its arsenals. In the past, the opposite was the rule.
For example, the Su-30MKK jet fighters Russia sold to China were no match for the Su-30MKIs supplied to India at about the same time. The Chinese planes had an inferior radar and without the thrust vectoring engines the Indian version had.
This time the situation looks reversed. The Amur-1650 submarine is far more silent and powerful than the Kilo-class submarines the Indian Navy has in its inventory. India’s Su-30MKI will be no match for China’s Su-35 which is powered by a higher thrust engine and boasts a more sophisticated radar, avionics and weapons, according to a leading Russian military expert, Konstantin Makienko.
China’s acquisition of the Su-35 will also question the wisdom of India’s plan to buy the French Rafale, the expert said.
“The sale of Su-35s to China will shoot down the value of the Rafale for India,” Mr. Makienko, who is deputy head of Russia’s top defence think tank, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told The Hindu.
“The Rafale will stand no chance against China’s Su-35,” the expert explained. “The Su-35’s Irbis radar has more than twice the detection range of the Rafale’s Thales RBE2, and will lock onto its target well before the Russian plane becomes visible for a retaliatory strike. The 117S engines of the Su-35 are also far more powerful than the Rafale’s Snecma M88.”
The Russian Air Force is just beginning to take delivery of the new aircraft and China may become the first country to import it. The relatively small number of Su-35s China plans to buy, 24, should not deceive anyone, Mr. Makienko said. China followed the same buying pattern for the Su-27, initially ordering 24 planes and ending up with more than 200 Su-27s and its licence-built version, the J-11.
The supply to China of more advanced weapon platforms than those available to India appears to contradict some basic geopolitical realities. India remains Russia’s most trusted partner whose defence requirements have never been refused. By contrast, Russia has always been apprehensive of the Chinese dragon and suspicious of its intentions towards resource-rich and population-poor Siberia.
Calls for restraint
There is consensus in the Russian strategic community that Moscow should exercise maximum restraint in providing China with advanced military technologies. Experts were shocked to find out that Chinese engineers had mastered the production of clones of most weapon systems cash-strapped Russia supplied to China in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Russian arms sales to China plummeted in recent years as China switched to domestic production, while Moscow became more cautious in offering Beijing cutting-edge technologies. Not only did China illegally copy Russian weapon systems, but it also began to export those undercutting Russian sales of higher-priced original platforms.
Some experts even called for a complete halt to arms sales to China, arguing that demographic pressures and a growing need of resources may one day push China to turn Russian weapons against Russia.
“We should stop selling them the rope to hang us with,” warned Alexander Khramchikhin of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
However, the risks of selling advanced weapons to China took a back seat in Moscow’s calculations after Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin for a third term a year ago. Last year, Russia’s state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, signed contracts with China worth $2.1-billion, the company’s head Anatoly Isaikin said recently. The renewal of sophisticated weapon supplies to China should be seen in the context of geopolitical games in the China-U.S.-Russia triangle.
“The balance of power between America and China will to a large extend depend on whether and on which side Russia will play,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, foreign policy analyst.
Russia and China are revitalising defence ties at a time when their relations with the U.S. have run into rough waters. Moscow is deeply disappointed with Mr. Obama’s policy of “reset,” which is seen in Moscow as a U.S. instrument of winning unilateral concessions from Russia, while Beijing views Mr. Obama’s strategic redeployment in the Asia-Pacific region as aimed at containing China.
Profit motives
Russian defence sales to China are also driven by profit motives as arms manufacturers seek to compensate for the recent loss of several lucrative contracts in India, where they face growing competition from the U.S., Europe and Israel. Also, Moscow seems to be less concerned today about the so-called “reverse engineering” of Russian weapons in China as the ability of the Chinese industry to copy critical technologies appears to have been overrated.
“China’s programme of developing the J-11B family of aircraft based on the Su-27 platform has run into problems,” said Vasily Kashin, expert on China. “China’s aircraft engines, which are essentially modified version of Russian engines, are way too inferior to the originals and China continues to depend on the supply of Russian engines.”
In the past three-four years, China has bought over 1,000 aircraft engines from Russia and is expected to place more orders in coming years.
“When and if China succeeds in copying Russia’s new weapon platforms the Russian industry will hopefully move ahead with new technologies,” Mr. Kashin said.
India can also easily offset the advantage that new Russian arms supplies may give China, experts said.
“To retain its edge in military aviation, India needs to speed up the development of a 5th-generation fighter plane with Russia and go for in-depth upgrade of its fleet of Su-30MKI fighters,” Mr. Makienko said.
Trade differences
However, the resumption of massive Russian arms supplies to China could still be a cause for concern in India. Closer defence ties between Moscow and Beijing are an offshoot of strong dynamics of their overall relations. China is Russia’s top commercial partner, with bilateral trade expected to touch $90 billion this year and soar to $200 billion by 2020. Mr. Putin has described China’s rise as “a chance to catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy.”
This contrasts with sluggish trade between India and Russia, which stood at $11 billion last year; even the target of $20 billion the two governments set for 2015 falls short on ambition. India risks being eclipsed by China on the Russian radar screens. As Russia’s top business daily Kommersant noted recently, even today, Russian officials from top to bottom tend to look at India with “drowsy apathy,” while Mr. Putin’s visit to India last year was long on “meaningless protocol” and short on time and substance.
Keywords: BRICS summit, Xi Jinping, Russia-China ties, U.S.-Russia talks, Syria civil war, China-Japan relations
Those who forget history are bound to repeat it. We should not forget
that Russia declined to help us when China attacked. We should go by
what Dr. Kalam has set for us: Better to go for indigenous production
with the help of US or Israel than to depend on Russia. Russia has been
constantly blackmailing us for the past 20 years over Admiral Goshkov.
Time to bid bye-bye to Russia.
The view that Russian avionics is inferior is off-the-point. Russian philosophy of developing fighters are completely different from US-European one. The latter emphasize on fly-by-wire and comfort of pilots. But as has been pointed out several times, fly-by-wire makes a bad pilot look like average but it is a drag on an excellent pilot. Real time assessment and executions of an excellent pilot always get slowed down by the need for giving computerized instructions. And in a real war where is the need for comfort, the pilot trained to be a winner will want a mean machine meant for just fighting, not comfort or fly-by-wire.
One must avoid privately manufactured defence components - no matter which country it is purchased from. That private industry almost always gain contracts through bribes is by now infamous with Indian armed forces with former Air Chief Marshall in docks. To compete for India's defence requirements, we must make it mandatory that the company bidding must be in the public sector of the respective nation where it is based.
Only this will ensure a fair technical evaluation of bids.
For those seek private investment in defence, it could be a useful thing to ask, whether India's private sector ever produced or absorbed technological innovations as a front runner? For a country that sought private FDI for technological upgradation but ended up with FDI in potato chips and colas and kirana stores, it will be a laughable proposition. Note that, despite manifolds more efficient in defence production, neither Russia nor China has allowed private investment in defence.
Russian leadership needs to understand in global world, awareness and abilities are respected. Something a very difficult to understand for communist nations. Russia may have advanced hardware (doubt thats better than french). But facts speak for themselves. French planes are still working top notch after 30 years-eg Mirage. Forget about dependability and longstanding ties, no mother wants to loose her son over flying undependable planes! Also Russia-India friendship should be based now on other things - because this superficial relationship based solely on defence ties will not stand long enough. This is not to downgrade Russian importance as Russian friendship was very valuable over the few decades. unfortunately Ruusian arms are not upto standard but Indian friendship with Russia should not be driven by these issues.
Russians are always partial to China supplying China with the most advanced technology. The fiffth generation fighter plane that India will develop with Russia will also be given away to the Chinese by Russians. India must start developing its own indigenous fighter planes and military craft to have the military edge.
India should better spend some money in its military R&D section. The sooner we enable ourselves to develop indigeneously weapons, the better chance we would have to stand against our neighbouring countries. You cannot stop anyone either from buying or selling weapons, if Russia failed to win its bid of selling fighter jets to India . Then obviously, it would have to sell its weapons to some other country to compete its needs.
A wise move by the Russians. What else were they supposed to do? India has a totally failed foreign policy. It is trying to side with the nemesis of Asian countries from halfway across the world. Only ruin lies ahead for India if it tries to forge a pact with USA.
China, Russia and India should be the three pillars of Asian supremacy in the world. If we stand together, the whole world will be at our feet. That is the combined potential of the RIC axis.
Relation between Russia and India were always an oppertunity and bussiness rather than friendship. Developed countries will always create situations like this to exlpoit us.
Its time for India to start investing for home developed fighter planes as it has done for missiles and is doing for submarrines.
Lets start relying on ourselves than on others for our defence.
This is an extremely disturbing development. For one, Russia is sticking
it to India with the sale of the Su-35s and the submarines. However, the
larger geopolitical implications that this has for India are very
significant. Russia has been India's strongest military partner since
India's independence, and now Russia is seen to be displaying a tilt
towards China? The dragon gets a bear hug, with the eagle circling
overhead, and the elephant idly watching from outside the ring.
Sukhoi SU-35 is cheaper.
Dassault Rafale is more economical.
Sukhoi SU-35 is faster.
Sukhoi SU-35 is better armed.
Dassault Rafale is better dogfighter.
Dassault Rafale is smaller than Sukhoi SU-35.
Both the fighters have their own advantage and disadvantage
1. India did not consider Kilo class as its frontline SKS. It is Scorpion which is superior to Amur class or any other diesel/electric in Russian inventory.
2. If the 5th generation FGFA aircraft is not "vastly" superior to SU 35, then India should pull out of that collaboration with Russia.
3. SU 30 and SU 30 MKI will anyway come up for massive upgrade irrespective of this Chinese deal , as per its life cycle and overhaul.
4. Russia should instead focus on delivering is products as per contractual cost and time. Observe the contrast between the C - 17 Globmaster / CJ - 130 with that of Carrier Vikramaditya program !
India does not and can not play the games china has to play,
especially with USA and japan,Britain and other western countries to an
extent and a level below with present day Russia and erstwhile USSR.
china is in a different ballgame of not it's choosing!
i can not without needed research off handed say if china is the only
nuclear weapons country which affirms it's stand never to be the first
user of nuclear weapons!which means that china undertakes not to use
the nuclear weapons it has, unless china itself is attacked with
nuclear weapons.
even little players like India and Pakistan, with some tiny crude
probably functional nuclear weapons dare not say this.
this is something very honourable in little honourable international
arms and defence environment.it does not matter what less honourable
and dishonourable speak about this commitment of china.it is only such
unequivocal affirmations that will save the world from a nuclear war
catastrophe.
This definitely could bear seriously huge and damaging implications for
India as far as National Security is concerned by looking at the fact
the the Russians and the Chinese coming together to counter the US
stranglehold is a no-brainer. India has already decided her stance long
before in the world of geopolitics and will have to tread carefully in
walking the tight rope
This is the case of sour grapes. Russia could not sell its weapons to India which is the worlds largest importer of weapons. China other hand will not get access to Western Weapons beacause of mutual distrust. The only option is Russia selling to China which is a win-win to both. If Su-35 is world beater , then why is Russia developing PAK-FA and why is China not part of PAK FA development?. If China was good enough to develop J-20 a fifth generation fighter, then why is China importing Su-35 which is 4.5 gen + ? Russians want Indians to Cancell the MMRCA deal. Rafale wins hands down in all parameters against SU-35. Russia could not field a plane that meets our Airforce Specs for MMRCA. The writer is pro Russia , and I see a clear bias in his reporting instead giving a neutral assesment.
Undoubtedly, a joint Sino-Russia defense will be an effective way, or
should one say the only way, in thwarting the hegemonic ambition of the
US. It will act as a deterrence to unnecessary conflicts. (vzc1943)
Russians playing game here. Too much claim by Russians without any
substance. Rafale has AESA radar, while Su has phased array radar
...huge difference. Russian avionics are no good and India never uses
Russian avionics, and high thrust after a limit is of no use.
Inspire of Russian decision to sale sophisticated weapons systems to China, India should not
give in to any efforts for subtle pressure tactics to purchase Russian made weapons all the
time. India has learned some hard lessons by being overtly dependent on Russian weapons
systems such as lack of spare parts or over time, over budget deal on aircraft carrier. Most of
all India needs to be improve its domestic weapons production by involving private industry
in defense supply chain.
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