DoD Budget: Fiscal 2013-17 Highlights, Numbers & Unfolding Events

On normal years the US Department of Defense goes through a complicated-enough process to establish and finalize its budget. But whereas FY 2012 offered a welcome return to normalcy after a very long continuing resolution, the budgeting cycle for fiscal year 2013 unfolded in an unproductive, fractious political environment.

As fiscal year 2012 came to a close Congress bought time with a continuing resolution. And as the new civil year started, Congress begrudgingly applied a short-term patch to avoid the fiscal cliff, while the President eventually signed a FY13 authorization bill containing language he had threatened to veto for months. By March 2013 everyone seemed to capitulate to wrap up appropriations for the rest of the year. But FY13 appropriations ended up including sequestration, an outcome that few had predicted since the Budget Control Act was passed in 2011. The FY14 budget cycle then started late, with only dim hope of a more reasonable outcome.

Gulf States Requesting ABM-Capable Systems

Patriot PAC-2

It’s becoming clear that Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have stepped up their defense spending in recent years. Uncertainty creates perceptions of risk, and perceptions of risk lead to responses aimed at reducing that risk. That’s why arms spending is an incomplete but very concrete way of tracking a state’s real assessment of threats and priorities. Iraq is no longer a missile/WMD threat, but Iran’s ballistic missiles are another matter. They may be based on North Korean designs that lack accuracy, but the prospect of nuclear payloads is producing reactions.

Gulf states recognize that even a lucky conventional missile could wreak havoc if it hit key oil-related infrastructure, or damaged the larger and more nebulous target of business confidence. The spread of nuclear weapons would change the calculus completely. A 2007 US National Intelligence Assessment [redacted NIE summary, PDF] believed that Iran’s nuclear program had stopped, but others, including the United Nations and Israel, were more skeptical. By 2010, that skepticism had spread to US intelligence, which repudiated an assessment that seems set to join the infamous 1962 NIE of no Soviet missiles in Cuba [1].

The Gulf states’ response to these developments covers a range of equipment, but anti-ballistic missile capabilities appear to be rising to the top of the priority list.

AMDR Competition: The USA’s Next Dual-Band Radar

DBR testbed, Wallops

The US Navy’s Dual-Band Radar that equips its forthcoming 14,500t Zumwalt class“destroyers” and Gerald R. Ford class super-carriers replaces several different radars with a single back-end. Merging Raytheon’s X-band SPY-3 with Lockheed Martin’s S-band VSR allows fewer radar antennas, faster response time, faster adaptation to new situations, one-step upgrades to the radar suite as a whole, and better utilization of the ship’s power, electronics, and bandwidth.

Rather than using the existing Dual-Band Radar design in new ships, however, the “Air and Missile Defense Radar” (AMDR) aimed to fulfill future CG (X)/ DG-51 Flight III cruiser needs through a new competition. It could end up being a big deal for the winning radar manufacturer, and for the fleet. If, and only if, the technical, power, and weight challenges can be mastered at an affordable price.

Rapid Fire Nov. 1, 2012: Shipbuilding Capabilities

• China has ramped up mass production techniques and coordination between its shipyards to allow a rapid modernization of its fleet, with some degree of versatility thanks to modular construction. The Diplomat.

• Meanwhile the Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s Navy Admiral Viktor Chirkov is expecting his country’s shipyards to launch 5 combat and support ships per year in years to come. RIA Novosti.

• The Philippines’ plan to buy a 3rd used cutter from the US is on hold, according to the Philippine Star. For now they will focus on equipping the two ships they already acquired from the US Coast Guard. USCG Dallas, the second of these two ships (renamed to BRP Ramon Alcaraz), is expected in February 2013.

• Australia is not the only country where high commodity prices make it harder for its Navy to retain qualified personnel: Norway is facing similar issues.

• The administrative surcharge rate charged by the US through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is down from 3.8% to 3.5%, effective today.

• The Center for American Progress and the Institute for Policy Studies, two left-wing American think tanks, are advocating the implementation of a unified security budget, and defense budget cuts at the scale, but not in the shape, of the sequester. PDF report.

• In the US Army’s latest Q&A about the Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) it plans for its fleet of Landing Craft Utility 2000 (LCU 2000) vessels, a point small businesses need to understand beyond this one program: “component (replace/refurbish) decisions would be made by the prime contractor.” An Industry Day should take place next December or January. TACOM.

• Switzerland’s intelligence service reportedly advised in its weekly report for the Swiss Federal Council to consider participating in NATO’s European missile defense system. That would obviously be quite a break from neutrality. Tages-Anzeiger [in German].

Rapid Fire August 27, 2012: Pentagon Consolidates Urgent Acquisitions

Come on
You can do this!

Army Sustainment explains the intricacies involved in recovering an RG-31 MRAP that rolled over last year on “little more than a goat trail” in Northern Afghanistan. Plan A involved lifting the ditched vehicle with a massive MRAP Recovery Vehicle, but after a rocky trip just to get there, the MRV failed – it turned out after the operation because of a simple loose fuse. Then came plans B and C, and eventual success.

Rapid Fire May 25, 2012: Oversight in Afghanistan

• India’s new aircraft carrier will have its sea trials delayed. The problem isn’t the contractor this time – it’s the weather in northern Russia.

• US base closures: if not this year, maybe the next?

• The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank proposes their recipe for “sustainable pre-eminence.” You’ve heard it before: more Asia/Pacific, more Air/Naval, more joint interdependencies. They are sticking their neck out on capabilities: cut 1 CVN, stop LCS in FY17 at 27 ships vs. a planned 55, get less F-35Cs for the Navy and more F/A-18s instead.

Rapid Fire May 21, 2012: NATO Summit No Peak

• NATO and Pakistan have not found an agreement on reopening transport routes out of Afghanistan. The fact Pakistan tried to increase the price per truck by a factor of 20 might have something to do with it. If allied combat troops are to withdraw by mid-2013 and don’t want to leave most of their equipment behind or ship it back at an outrageous cost, this will need to be resolved.

• Five years after Estonia’s cyber attacks: any lessons learned for NATO? [PDF]

• The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) gathered a lot of force composition data [PDF] in the Gulf.

Replacing Canada’s Failing CC-130s: 17 C-130Js

CC-130 over BC

The US military has been coming to the realization that its aging aircraft fleet will begin posing serious challenges in the coming years. Canada is experiencing similar problems. In 2005, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Rick Hillier said that:

“Our [CC-130 E/H] Hercules fleet right now is rapidly going downhill. We know that three years and a little bit more than that, the fleet starts to become almost completely inoperational and we will have to stop supporting operations – or else, not be able to start them.”

This Spotlight article offers additional details regarding the Canadian CC-130 recapitalization program, and the thinking behind it; some background that points up the parallels between the issues faced by the Canadians, and the experiences of other air services; and some insight into why the buy took so long, after the C-130J was declared Canada’s preferred choice in an “expedited” process. Canada has begun using the new planes on operations, and is preparing to accept the last “CC-130J.” This will shift its focus to issues of long-term support costs.

Rapid Fire April 9, 2012: Counting Our Blessings

• The US Navy said it would start releasing emergency funds today to start compensating the households whose property was destroyed in an F/A-18 crash on Friday in Virginia Beach. Thankfully no one was seriously hurt: “about as close as you can get to a miracle.” Video at the bottom of this entry.

• A RAF Chinook had to make an emergency landing in Arizona on Saturday but nobody was injured either.

• The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote a glowing profile of Susie Alderson, an engineer now at the US Navy’s Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR) who promoted the production of MRAPs to protect troops from roadside IEDs.

Rapid Fire 2011-11-08: Why Nunn-McCurdy Cost Breaches Happen

• We wish there were more elected officials like Rep. Walter Jones [R-NC-3], who has spent 10 years trying to clear the names of 2 pilots involved in a fatal MV-22 Osprey crash. Why didn’t H.Res. 698 (111th) get out of committee?

• RAND Corporation analyzed the root causes behind Nunn-McCurdy cost breaches for the following MDAPs: Zumwalt, JSF, Apache, and WGS. See also DOT&E’s presentation [PDF] from last August on the very same topic, and The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s just-released report on managing risk in defense projects.

• POGO has more details on the failed IT modernization contract at Andrews AFB that led the US Air Force to ask for the debarment of 3 contractors.

• The Heritage Foundation, the Lowy Institute for International Policy, and the Observer Research Foundation think tanks jointly made the case for US-Australia-India cooperation defense cooperation.

• First battalion of UH-72A Security & Support variant helicopters enter service with the US military.

• The crew of the Taiwanese fishing vessel Chin Yi Wen takes back their boat from about 6 Somali pirates, then contacts the UKMTO naval task force. Seems some of the sailors were veterans of the Vietnam War. 3 sailors injured, and the pirates, uh, “fell into the sea” and haven’t been found. Last week German frigate FGS Köln sank 2 pirate fishing boats and captured several people.

• TKMS Blohm + Voss holds a keel-laying ceremony for Germany’s first F125 expeditionary frigate.

• 3 soldiers of the Welsh Cavalry on a patrol in Nahr-e Saraj, Afghanistan got out of their recently-rehulled Scimitar Mk2 almost unfazed after an IED blast. The 1st video below shows what these tracked vehicles look like.

• The 2nd video below shows the US Navy’s Deep Submergence Unit (DSU) using a pressurized rescue module to practice a submarine rescue with their Chilean peers: