Finmeccanica’s M-346 AJT: Who’s the Master Now?

Tornado refuels M346

Alenia’s Aermacchi’s M-346 advanced jet trainer began life in 1993, as a collaboration with Russia. It was also something of a breakthrough for Alenia Aermacchi, confirming that the Finmeccanica subsidiary could design and manufacture advanced aircraft with full authority quadriplex fly-by-wire controls. Those controls, the aircraft’s design for vortex lift aerodynamics, and a thrust:weight ratio of nearly 1:1, allow it to remain fully controllable even at angles of attack over 35 degrees. This is useful for simulating the capabilities of advanced 4+ generation fighters like the F/A-18 Super Hornet, Eurofighter, and Rafale. Not to mention Sukhoi’s SU-30 family, which has made a name for itself at international air shows with remarkable nose-high maneuvers.

The Russian collaboration did not last. For a while, it looked like the Italian jet might not last, either. It did though, and has become a regular contender for advanced jet trainer trainer contracts around the world – including its biggest potential opportunity, in the USA. For now, however, its biggest customer is Israel.

Submarines for Indonesia

KRI Cakra
(click to view larger)

Indonesia sites astride one of the world’s most critical submarine chokepoints. A large share of global trade must pass through the critical Straits of Malacca, and the shallow littoral waters around the Indonesian archipelago. That makes for excellent submarine hunting grounds, but Indonesia has only 2 “Cakra Class”/ U209 submarines in its own fleet, relying instead on frigates, corvettes, and fast attack craft.

South Korea’s Daewoo, which has experience building U209s for South Korea, has been contracted for Cakra Class submarine upgrades. Even so, submarine pressure hulls have inflexible limits on their safe lifetime, due to repeated hydraulic squeezing from ascending and descending. The Indonesians have expressed serious interest in buying 3-6 replacement submarines since 2007, with French, German, Russian, South Korean, and even Turkish shipyards in the rumored mix. Other priorities shoved the sub purchase aside, but a growing economy and military interest finally revived it. South Korea was the beneficiary, but further orders may be in store.

Russia’s Yak-130 Trainer & Light Attack Jets

Yak-130

Russia’s air force (VVS) aged badly in the wake of the Cold War, and the lack of replacements soon made itself felt in all areas. One of those areas involved advanced jet trainers, which form the last rung on the ladder before assignment to fighters. Russia’s Czech-made L-29 and L-39 trainers were left with questionable access to spare parts, and a competition that began in the 1990s finally saw Yakolev’s Yak-130 collaboration with Italy’s Finmeccanica beat the MiG-AT in 2002. Unfortunately, Russian budget realities allowed orders for just a dozen early production Yak-130s, even as the VVF’s L-39 fleet dwindled drastically.

The Yak-130′s multi-mission capabilities in training, air policing, and counterinsurgency make it an attractive option for some customers beyond Russia. Initial export successes helped keep Yak-130 production going, via confirmed orders from Algeria (16), and unclear relationships with Kazakhstan, Libya, and Vietnam. In December 2011, however, Russia finally placed a significant order that got production started in earnest. Russia continues to promote the aircraft abroad, and now that the plane’s future is secure, interest and orders are picking up.

India’s Light Transport Competition: Follow Avros to Exit

IAF’s 748M Avro

India’s slow-motion force modernization has made significant progress within its aerial transport fleet. Their AN-32s are being modernized, stretched C-130J Hercules have been bought for their special forces, and the IAF’s high-end IL-76s will soon be joined by 10 Boeing C-17 heavy transports. Now, at the very bottom of India’s fixed-wing transport force, it’s time to replace the 6 tonne capacity of the IAF’s 30 or so surviving 748M Avros. The planes are currently used for troop transport, communications, and training.

The 2 leading contenders are a familiar pair, and would be more like western counterparts to the higher-performance AN-32s. A number of other makes and models have been floated, which could make for an interesting competition if enough of them respond.

Baby Come Back: Iraq is Buying Russian Weapons Again

Pantsir-S1

In October 2012, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki signed a deal with Russia’s Rosoboronexport, variously estimated at $4.2 – $5.0 billion. The deal is characteristically murky, but is reported to include 30 Mi-28NE attack helicopters, and 42-50 mobile SA-22 Pantsir low-level air defense systems. Their combined cost is unlikely to approach $4 billion, unless very extensive long-term support arrangements are included. There has also been discussion in the press concerning MiG-29M2 fighters or armored vehicles as follow-on options.

The deal does fill some important military and political holes for Iraq. Even with a signed contract, however, completing the deal won’t be as easy as it was back in Saddam Hussein’s day.

India Moves to Boost Anti-Tank Capabilities

Indian T-90S

India’s armed forces have been complaining of a severe shortage of tank ammunition, and the fleet’s new T-90 tanks have had their share of problems. Over the last couple of weeks, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has moved to patch these gaps, by approving budgets for a pair of purchases. One is a gun-launched missile that can make the T-90 fleet more effective, while supplementing existing tank ammunition. The other is a follow-on order for an anti-tank missile that can be used by the infantry or mounted on vehicles.

Taken together, India hopes to add some punch to its mechanized divisions in particular.

Peru’s Next-Generation Air Defenses

POPRAD/ GROM

In March 2012, Peru announced the winner of its competition to upgrade its air defenses. The country’s air defense needs are most sharply focused on the relatively narrow border with Chile, but the country does have borders with Ecuador, Colombia, and Brazil, and has facilities it may wish to protect. Mobile and portable systems have been a priority for Peru, and their current architecture relies on a combination of upgraded SA-3/S-125 medium range missiles, Russian/Chinese derivatives of the very short range SA-16/18 man-portable missile, and guns.

Russian and Chinese firms competed for the deal, but the winner of its $140 million competition was the TRIAD consortium of Poland’s Bumar, Israel’s RAFAEL, and Northrop Grumman from the USA…

Yakkity Yak – Don’t Talk Back! Syria’s Russian Jet Order

Yak-130

Russian media are reporting that Syria has signed a $550-million contract with Russia’s state-owned Rosoboronexport arms export agency, involving 36 Yak-130 trainer and light attack jets. The deal was reportedly struck in December 2011, with the Yakolev Design Bureau as the type owner, Irkut as the builder, and jets to be supplied once Syria makes a pre-payment.

Irkut recently received a full-rate production order from the Russian VVS, and the Yak-130 has also enjoyed export success in Algeria and possibly in Kazakhstan. It has lost other international competitions, most notably in Indonesia, but retains a unique global position as a lead-in fighter trainer that can also serve as a heavily-armed ground attack and counterinsurgency aircraft. That could be very useful to the Assad regime, which is receiving open Russian support against strong domestic unrest – if, and only if, the regime survives long enough to take delivery.

Neighboring Turkey has quietly but firmly placed itself on the other side of that bet, partly as a form of payback for Syria’s long support of Kurdish PKK insurgents. Russian analyst Ruslan Pukhov is correct that this situation introduces a strong element of risk for Russia, but he is less correct when he says that counterinsurgency (COIN) support is a job for cheaper planes. In terms of sellers willing to deal with Syria, the Yak-130 is the low-budget, low-risk fixed-wing COIN alternative, which also patches a potentially serious training hole that could deliver a coup de grace to the existing Syrian Air Force. See also: Russia’s RIA Novosti | Saudi Arabia’s Arab News | Israel’s Arutz Sheva | Bloomberg | CNN | Turkey’s Zaman.

Azerbaijan Orders 24 Mi-35M Helicopter Gunships

Cypriot Mi-35P

As Rosvertol General Director Boris Slyusar announced the firm’s 2010 trading figures, he revealed that a fall 2010 deal had been signed with Azerbaijan for 24 Mi-35 attack helicopters. That would more than double the current fleet of 12-13 Mi-24s at Baku Kala air base, and make “Hind family” helicopters the backbone of Azerbailjan’s rotary-wing force. Newer Russian attack helicopters like the Mi-28 “Night Hunter” and Ka-52 “Alligator” get a lot of attention, but the Mi-24 “Hind/Krokodil” family of heavy helicopter gunships remains broadly popular around the world, with a secondary troop transport capability that’s unique in the market. News.Az.

Azerbaijan is located on the Caspian Sea, south of Russia, north of Iran, and east of Armenia. A highly-charged territorial dispute with Armenia remains a source of tension, as does protection of the country’s significant oil & natural gas infrastructure, and the possibility of meddling from its larger neighbors north and south. The country is busy building a defense industry of its own, and has pursued close cooperation and joint ventures with a number of foreign countries including Israel, Pakistan, Russia/Ukraine, and Turkey. Beyond its helicopter forces, recent cooperation discussions have involved 9mm Czech Skorpion EVO-III submarchine guns, Russian GAZ 2975 Tigr HMMWV class vehicles, and Pakistani designs for air-dropped bombs.

More MiG-29s for Myanmar

Myanmar MiG-29B

In late December 2009, reports surfaced that Myanmar (formerly Burma) had signed a EUR 400 million (about $571 million) deal with Russia’s Rosoboronexport for 20 MiG-29D fighters. Some sources add a deal for more Mi-35 attack helicopters, and place the entire package at EUR 450 million.

By comparison, the Tripartite Core Group (UN, ASEAN, and Burma’s Junta) launched [PDF] a 3-year Post-[Cyclone] Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP) in February 2009, appealing for international donations of $691 million…

• Myanmar: Aircraft & Allies [updated]
  
• Contracts & Key Events [updated]
  
• Additional Readings [NEW]