The devastating earthquake that hit Japan on March 11, combined with the massive tsunami, wrecked the once picturesque northeast coast of Japan's main island, claiming potentially tens of thousands of lives and creating hundreds of thousands of refugees in the process.

Along this stretch of destruction sit four nuclear power stations, comprising a total of 15 reactors, within a distance of about 200 kilometres of each other. Of these, the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power station, operated by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), is the largest, comprising six nuclear reactors. Until now, TEPCO, Japan's largest power company, proudly boasted of the robustness of the containment vessels of these reactors, claiming that they were made utilizing the same technology originally developed for the main battery of the iconic battleship Yamato—the pride of the Japanese Imperial Navy. TEPCO claimed that the nuclear reactors would safely stop, then automatically cool down and tightly contain radiation, in the event of an earthquake, and that there would therefore be no danger that an earthquake would cause any serious nuclear accident.

Assessing the Economic Aftershocks of the March 11 earthquake, Stephen S. Roach warns us not to be complacent about the effects on the global economy.

After outlining a ‘narrow' view based on a declining global profile for the Japanese economy—a shrinking percentage of both global exports and GDP, a rising China, and an irreplaceable position in only a handful of critical upstream industrial components—Roach urges us not to accept the ‘superficial’ conclusions that might flow from this view: that Japan ‘doesn't really matter anymore’ and that disruptions to global economic activity from the quake and its aftermath will be ‘transitory’ and ‘small.’

Roach points out that this ‘narrow view misses the most critical consideration’—that this latest shock comes at a time of global economic fragility. In particular, with interest rates worldwide at historic lows, the usual levers of monetary policy—interest rate cuts—are no longer available to central bankers to pump up growth. And ‘outsize fiscal deficits’ suggest that fiscal stimulus may also be exhausted. That leaves policymakers with nothing but ‘untested’ and ‘unconventional’ measures such as the quantitative easing being implemented by the Federal Reserve—and, in the immediate wake of the earthquake, by the Bank of Japan.

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The exceptions can be brutal, such as the Twitter comments by Alec Sulkin and Gilbert Godfried. But overall, international online and print media have conveyed an incredible outpouring of sympathy for Japan in the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake.

The trend is particularly pronounced among Japan's neighbours, many of whom have often been at odds with it over historical and territorial issues. A three-hour fundraising telethon on Taiwan's TBS network, for example, saw top local stars raise nearly $4,000,000 for quake relief. The opposition DPP has also raised millions. An incredible outpouring of support in Korea, led by local stars such as Yong-joon Bae, Lee Byung-hun and Choi Ji-woo, who rode the ‘Korea Wave’ to popularity in Japan, has raised nearly $10,000,000 dollars.

Online, user-generated content is quickly spreading awareness of the suffering in Tohoku. One powerful Korean video combines shocking images of the aftermath of the quake with a moving score called The Thorn Tree.

At the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum this past week, the busiest exhibition was that showing the effects of radiation exposure on the human body. The grotesque photographs and figurines had been etched in my mind from previous visits to this shrine to the victims of the atomic bombing of the city, but never before I had I seen so many people take the time to stop and digest every word on display.

Fears of exposure to radiation and its potentially devastating effects led to a minor exodus of Tokyo residents to western parts of Japan or overseas. The majority of those fleeing seemed to be foreigners or Japanese with young children.

I made my decision to depart for the Hiroshima region (where I used to live) on Tuesday, following a total reversal of my mindset. On Saturday (the day after the cataclysmic quake) I was preparing to meet a contact from Time magazine in the Sea of Japan city of Niigata. The plan was to drive from there up the coast and cut across to report on the disaster unfolding in Miyagi and Iwate prefectures.

For the first time in a week, the ongoing crisis that began with the massive earthquake which struck north-eastern Japan last Friday isn’t leading most international news bulletins (having been replaced by Libya’s decision to call a ceasefire against rebel fighters).

This doesn’t mean the crisis is over, but certainly the rhetoric about a catastrophe at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has died down.

Speaking Friday, Prime Minister Naoto Kan described the situation as still ‘very grave’, adding: ‘In order to overcome this crisis, the police, the fire department and self-defence forces are all working together putting their lives on the line in an attempt to resolve the situation.’

The same day, the country’s nuclear safety agency upgraded the crisis from a level 4 to a level 5 problem on a seven-point scale, putting it on par with the Three Mile Incident in the United States in 1979 (Chernobyl was rated level 7). Most analysts, though, appear to agree that the Fukushima crisis is worse than Three Mile Island, including one former US nuclear regulator quoted by CNN as saying that: ‘In terms of severity, this accident left Three Mile Island in the rear view mirror several days ago.’

Still, workers at the Fukushima plant appear to believe they have a chance of restoring power to two of the six reactors some time on Saturday, which could enable them to restart the water pumps that would help cool the overheated nuclear fuel rods.

And if that doesn’t work? Talk has now moved to what is seen as the last option available, which would be to bury the plant in concrete and sand to prevent a major radiation release.

I’m back in Tokyo -- which was quiet for a Friday night, but still seemed calm -- and will update later Saturday.

--- The Editor

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Could there be some light after the very long, dark tunnel this week in Japan’s nuclear crisis?

Engineers working at the Fukushima nuclear plant, which was crippled by last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami, have been working to restore power in an effort to get pumps working again so water can be used to cool overheating fuel rods.

Reuters reports officials saying that they hope to have power at at least two reactors sometime today, although these efforts were to be suspended to allow fire engines and Self-Defence Force helicopters to continue pouring water over the reactors to help cool them. About 30 tonnes was dropped by helicopters yesterday.

According to Reuters: ‘Yukiya Amano, head of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, was due back in his homeland later on Friday with an international team of experts after earlier complaining about a lack of information from Japan.

‘Graham Andrew, his senior aide, called the situation at the plant “reasonably stable” but the government said white smoke or steam was still rising from three reactors and helicopters used to dump water on the plant had shown exposure to small amounts of radiation.’

Meanwhile, Bloomberg quotes US Pacific Command as stating that the US military, which is flying unmanned surveillance drones over the site at Japan’s request, is ‘cautiously optimistic’ the damage can be contained.

It continues: ‘Tokyo Electric’s failure to end the threat of radiation from the six-reactor Fukushima plant has prompted the US to advise its citizens to consider leaving Japan and start airlifting some out of the country, while Australia has advised against travel to Tokyo. About 2.3 trillion yen ($29 billion) has been wiped from Tepco’s market value since the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and a series of explosions devastated the 40-year-old power station about 135 miles north of Tokyo.’

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The Diplomat speaks with Chatham House's Antony Froggatt about the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan.*

Broadly speaking, what have you made of the Japanese response to the crisis at the Fukushima plant? Is there anything you think could have been handled better?

I don’t think it’s possible to answer these questionsin any detail at the current time, since it’s still not clear what’s going on. 

There are clearly issues that are caused by either mistrust and/or communications, and at this stage it’s not possible to determine which of these is the primary cause of the problem. The most obvious example is the question of whether or not there is adequate cooling in one of the spent fuel ponds. The US government has stated their belief that there isn’t, while Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) says that there is. The adequate availability of cooling water is a very important safety issue, as if left for long enough without water there’s a real danger of considerable release of radiation.  Disagreement between major players on such an important issue is therefore a matter of extreme concern.  

I’d also highlight the different approaches of the international community. The French safety agency is saying that this is a Level 6 accident,  the US government that it’s probably worse than Three Mile Island, while the International Atomic Energy Agency hasn’t updated their original rating that it’s a Level 4 accident on the INES scale.  

A Tokyo-based businessman gives his account this morning of the situation in the city after returning there from Osaka.

There were very few people on the train into Tokyo. I'm not familiar with usual passenger numbers on the Osaka-Tokyo leg, but I presume that it’s more than one person per carriage.

However, I didn't notice any crowds trying to leave. People seem very calm here. Perhaps more face masks than usual, but this also is the height of hay fever season. I didn’t notice any other foreigners at all. I poked my head into a couple of shops and they seem well stocked, although I didn't check for water and other basics like that.

Central Tokyo is quiet, more like a Sunday than a Thursday. But there are multiple reasons why people might be keeping staff at home, including the erratic blackouts and the risk of an aftershock.

If there is tension I didn't notice it. I saw no evidence of panic.

Clearly though, the situation in Fukushima remains serious, although as things stand now, I haven’t found a convincing scientific explanation as to how radioactive particles can make it all the way to Tokyo in dangerous levels. The problem remains the wildly fluctuating situation, the lack of official information and the great variation in speculation.

I note that there’s talk that power could be restored to the Fukushima power plant this afternoon, which has the potential to significantly alter the situation.

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Five days after a devastating earthquake and tsunami set in motion what one nuclear analyst has described as a slow-moving nuclear nightmare, and it’s still unclear if a meltdown can be avoided at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

Surging radiation levels Wednesday prevented a helicopter from dropping water into the No. 3 reactor to try to cool fuel rods, and police are now planning to use water cannons in an effort to cool spent nuclear fuel at one of the reactors.

‘Japan's government said radiation levels outside the plant's gates were stable,’ Reuters reported. ‘But, in a sign of being overwhelmed, appealed to private companies to help deliver supplies to tens of thousands of people evacuated from around the complex.’

In a reflection of the magnitude of the crisis, Emperor Akihito delivered a rare video message in which he said he was deeply worried by this ‘unprecedented’ nuclear crisis.

I caught up with Tokyo Notes blogger David McNeill today and asked him for an update on what he has been seeing and hearing. Here’s what he had to say:

‘As you know, on Saturday morning we headed northeast to Sendai, Fukushima and beyond. I got back Monday evening, hitching a ride with aid workers along the highways.

‘The routine since then has been the same: go out and research as much as I can during the day, making sure to talk to as many people as I can, then back here and write until two or three in the morning, before getting up again at 8 am. The radio has been the big nuisance – there’s constant demand for radio interviews. My phone buzzes constantly and distractingly. But I feel duty bound to answer, like a doctor on call or something.

‘My priority for now, apart from the personal safety of my partner and unborn baby, is to keep telling the story as accurately as I can, because that's the job I've chosen.  That may mean another trip up north this weekend, which is causing understandable tension with my partner. I'm very concerned, obviously, about the fate of the plant in Fukushima, and others.  With the tectonic plates crashing and churning like this, more earthquakes are a certainty, and possibly even the eruption of Mt. Fuji. I won't listen to anyone saying it can't happen, after the events of the last five days.  

‘I don't have time to be angry right now, but I will if and when all this settles down. Experts have been warning for years about the folly of building nuclear plants in one of the world's most seismically unstable countries in the world. I've been interviewing them since I came back here in 2000, especially during the Kashiwazaki crisis in 2007.

The bureaucrats and government responded that Japanese technology was superior and had overcome the design faults of its equivalent in Europe and the United States. There was a huge amount of national pride invested in this since, as we all know, this is such a resource poor country, held hostage to events in the oil-rich Middle East and very much dependent on US protection and double dealing there. Now we see the folly of that strategy.

My sense is that we are at a historic moment. I'm on the radio every day hearing nuclear experts -- in many cases very measured and well informed -- being ridiculed for their faith in this technology as an energy source. I can’t imagine public opinion in any democratic country anywhere allowing another plant to be built in the years to come, if ever. Fukushima will certainly kill off the so-called nuclear renaissance and makes people like Tony Blair and George Bush, who championed it, look very foolish. And I think that's a very good thing.

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