Japan’s Next Fighters, From F-X Competition to F-35 Buys

F-35A

In December 2011, Japan picked Lockheed Martin’s new F-35A stealth fighter as its next fighter aircraft, to replace its aging F-4 “Kai” Phantom fleet. The F-35 was actually their 2nd choice.

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the USAF to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted US allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. Japan clearly wanted them, and the Raptor was a topic of diplomatic discussions in several venues, including a 2007 summit meeting. In the end, however, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, and its production line was terminated. That left Japan looking at other foreign “F-X” fighter options in the short term, while they considered a domestic stealth fighter design as their long-term project.

In the ensuing F-X competition, the F-35 Lightning II beat BAE’s Eurofighter Typhoon, as well as an upgraded F/A-18E Super Hornet from Boeing. Now Lockheed Martin has to deliver, and so will its Japanese partners. Will the F-35A’s price and program delays create problems in Japan? This article looks at the JASDF’s current force, its future options, and ongoing F-X developments.

The USA’s DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class Program: Dead Aim, Or Dead End?

67% of the fleet

The prime missions of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer are to provide naval gunfire support, and next-generation air defense, in near-shore areas where other large ships hesitate to tread. There has even been talk of using it as an anchor for action groups of stealthy Littoral Combat Ships and submarines, owing to its design for very low radar, infrared, and acoustic signatures. The estimated 14,500t (battlecruiser size) Zumwalt Class will be fully multi-role, however, with undersea warfare, anti-ship, and long-range attack roles.

True, or False?

That makes the DDG-1000 suitable for another role – as a “hidden ace card,” using its overall stealth to create uncertainty for enemy forces. At over $3 billion per ship for construction alone, however, the program faced significant obstacles if it wanted to avoid fulfilling former Secretary of the Navy Donald Winter’s fears for the fleet. From the outset, DID has noted that the Zumwalt Class might face the same fate as the ultra-sophisticated, ultra-expensive SSN-21 Seawolf Class submarines. That appears to have come true, with news of the program’s truncation to just 3 ships. Meanwhile, production continues. DID’s FOCUS Article for the DDG-1000 program covers the new ships’ capabilities and technologies, key controversies, associated contracts and costs, and related background resources.

Rapid Fire March 25, 2013: Chinese Budget; Indian Ocean Ambitions

• Adam Liffa and Andrew Erickson try to shed some light on China’s military budget in China Quarterly. They’re saying the inflation-adjusted growth rate has been slowing down and converging with GDP growth, which itself has cooled down. This would amount to net growth in the 7%-8% range this year, based on Chinese inflation at about 3%-4%. However the current budget, done during the recent power transition in Beijing, may still prove to be an outlier.

• Of course any Western military would love to see its budget growth shrink to “just 8%” per year. Latest country to face another round of cuts: the UK. Treasury Budget 2013 [PDF] | FT | Guardian.

• Count Turkey’s Defense Industry Undersecretary among those who’d like to have more money. The country’s armament exports reached $1.2B last year while their defense budget has remained in a $13B-$15B/year range. Hürriyet Daily News.

• Probably too much has been made of China’s investments in a port in Gwadar, Pakistan. China has other options to gain access to the Indian ocean, from islands such Sri Lanka or the Seychelles, to Bangladesh and Myanmar. But these infrastructure investments and partnerships, Gwadar included, are far from a walk in the park. And even if China ends up developing these projects successfully, it would not necessarily mean that it is on a collision course with “resident power” [PDF] India. Friction between the two seems inevitable but there is also room for cooperation.