Motorola China

For future reference, this is what at least one Motorola Android phone on sale in China looks like. ​No Google services at all. Hardly news for anyone paying attention, but I thought it was striking that this phone was on the Motorola stand at MWC in Barcelona this week.

This is, of course, extremely common - the great majority of Android phones sold in China are in this state. No Google services (or buried if they're there at all) and Baidu search instead of Google Search.

Amongst other things, the absence of Google Play means that they generally do not feature in Google's Android activation numbers (which in any case have not been updated since early September 2012). 

Slogans

A selection of mobile tech company slogans from MWC:

Explore beyond limits
Bringing you closer
Make it possible
Dare to Dream
Touch the smart life
At the speed of ideas
Innovate. Collaborate. Inspire.
It's fun to be young!
Let your fame begin
Shoot Wow! Share Now!
Embrace challenge experience success
Sponsors of tomorrow
Dazzle more

And the winner:
In search of incredible

On bias

Two mobile platforms matter at the moment, Android and iOS. Others may matter in the future, but those are the ones that drive the agenda now. So those are the ones that I write about and talk about and try to understand.

However, the things that matter in understanding them are actually quite different.

The key question for the iPhone, very simply, is how many people can afford to buy a $650 iPhone. A subsidiary question, of course, is whether and how Apple might make a cheaper phone. Other aspects of Apple are interesting too (retail,supply chain etc), but that is the key question, and relative to this, product questions are relatively unimportant.

Apple Maps is a fiasco, but it is fundamentally a secondary issue and there is no evidence it affects sales. The same is true of skeumorphism, or 'openness' or a dozen other issues that people talk about. What matters is the addressable market. Criticisms of Apple product, by and large, do not matter so long as they do not affect sales, and there is no evidence that they do, to any material degree. Hence, they do not really interest me, regardless of whether I personally agree with them, as a user of the product.

Android is different. Android does not really face an addressable market question. 1.7 billion phones will be sold this year, perhaps a little more, and half will be smartphones, and almost all of those that are sold for less than $400 will run Android. In a couple of years, if nothing changes, Android will be selling a billion units a year or more.

The important questions, therefore, are within Android: they are product questions. Something like a third of unit sales are in China and have little access to Google services. What does that mean? Another third to a half of units are sold by Samsung, and all the other branded Android OEMs are struggling. Android is fragmented, Android is very weak in apps for tablets, and so on, and so on. What do all these variations mean? Android is many different things in a way that the iPhone is not, and understanding those variations makes up the analytical challenge.

In other words, product questions are important to understanding Android in a way that they are not to understanding the iPhone. Product questions change what it means to say 'Android'.

Is that criticism? Negativity? Not really. Android simply went in a different direction, and made different compromises, that's all. And it has been a huge success. It has brought the mobile Internet, and indeed the internet itself, to hundreds of millions of people. It has only achieved that, really, because of things that look, to high-end users, like flaws to be criticised. It is fragmentation that makes possible the $45 Android phone and the $90 Android tablet. To see what would happen if Android wasn't in many senses a fragmented chaotic mess, look at Windows Phone. I doubt anyone thinks the world would be a better place if Android had followed the same path.

Firefox Mobile

Amongst many other things, today I went to the Firefox stand at MWC. It was very full of excited people talking about their new venture with some of the leading mobile operators to launch a new phone OS, aimed at the tier just below 'real' smartphones. There was much talk of openness and other ideologically correct things, and none at all about any consumer benefits. I did hear someone from Mozilla say that 'Firefox is a great consumer brand', though, which is a pretty questionable claim: the target consumers would be pushed to name ANY browser, let alone Firefox. There is a reference phone from ZTE (and also one from Alcatel I haven't seen yet): the software is perfectly elegant if not terribly new, but rather slow, and the device is targeted to cost $100.

50 yards away there is a half-empty stand from Haier, a second-tier Chinese OEM. Their W619 is a 2G android smartphone running Android 4, with 2 SIM slots, a 3.5" screen and an MTK chipset. It is very solid and the UI is perfectly fluid. The wholesale price is $50: 3G versions are $75. There are dozens of other companies at MWC selling similar products, for anyone who bothers to look.

I generally have little faith in industry-wide initiatives in mobile: I have none at all in this one.

Nexus 7 maths

Google doesn't say anything about Nexus device sales, but Asustek, the manufacturer of the Nexus 7, does. The chart below, from the Q3 IR deck, shows tablet unit sales for the first three quarters of 2012: today it announced that total tablet sales in 2012 were 6.3m units (in line with a target it stated in December). 

The Nexus 7 went on sale in Q3, and in October the CEO was quoted as saying: "at the beginning, it was, for instance, 500K units a month, then maybe 600, 700K. This latest month, it was close to 1 million." (link)

So:

  • Around 4.8m tablets sold by the company since the Nexus 7 went on sale
  • Verbal comments indicate 2.1-2.2m in Q3, which is consistent with the total figure
  • However, that would imply a collapse in sales of all other products (616k in Q2), and might perhaps include product ramp-up in June
  • 2.4m tablets sold in Q4
  • Therefore total possible Nexus 7 sales of say 2.2m in Q2/Q3, plus at most 2.4m in Q4, and probably a hundred thousand or so less (given sales of other devices)
  • Hence, total Nexus 7 sales of 4.5m to 4.6m, and no more than 4.8m

It's worth pointing out that Nexus 7 distribution was somewhat patchy - for example, it only went on sale in Japan at the end of September. 

Apple doesn't disclose iPad Mini sales separately, but going on the ASP, my estimate is that it sold 10m in Q4, despite the fact that it wasn't available until the beginning of November. 

Kindle Fire sales numbers aren't much better than guesswork, given that Amazon doesn't disclose anything, but my guess is that it outsold the Nexus 7 as well.

I'll update this if and when Asus gives more precise unit sales (the investor conference is on 5 March).

$37 tablets

It's always worth browsing Alibaba, for all sorts of reasons. This gem is an eight inch tablet on offer for $37 wholesale (link). The design looks strangely familiar. 

This isn't a terribly new story, though this is the lowest price I've seen yet. The spec is vaguely plausible for the price: 8 inch 2-point capacitive touch screen, VIA8650 CPU, Android 2.2, 256MB RAM, 2GB ROM, WiFi, 1.3 MP camera. The promise of 'internal Word and Excel' is a nice selling point, though. 

I suspect the performance for this would be horrible at best, and good luck getting many recent Android apps to run (did 2.2 have the Fragments API?), though it will do fine for web and video. Indeed, video is a major use case for such things. The battery life is quoted as 5-6 hours and that probably means standby life. But in emerging markets, if you only HAVE $50 to spend, this might be your first internet experience outside of an internet café. And depending on who you talk to, there could be well over 100m similar devices being made in China this year. 

However, it hardly needs pointing out that including such devices in global 'tablet' sales for the purposes of calculating the market share of Apple, Samsung or Amazon products will create a rather misleading impression.

Incidentally, you could get 100 of these (the minimum order) for the price of four Surface Pros. 

Metadata

The state of metadata for classical music in 2013. The name of the piece crammed into each track title, an irrelevant 'album' field and no composer at all. Sadly, now such a small industry that this systemic problem may never get fixed.