Amidst all the fanfare surrounding China’s increasingly impressive roster of homemade aircraft, Beijing has doggedly maintained its pursuit of Russia’s best military plane, the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet. Reports this week suggest that this persistence may finally have paid off, and that a deal with the Russians is now close to being sealed.
The deal’s revival reveals much about the motivations of Beijing and Moscow. Both sides had good reason to give up on the whole idea after the agreement first ran into trouble earlier this year. Landing indigenously developed J-15s on an aircraft carrier, or testing new stealth fighters – these are kind of the boosterish headlines that China’s leadership enjoys, as they feed into the narrative of China as an up-and-coming power with the capability to leap technological hurdles. Buying off-the-shelf planes from Russia does the exact opposite: It is an admission that China still has limitations, and that is still a playing catch-up.
As for the Russians, the thought of their prize fighter jet being stripped down, copied and mass-produced with nothing more than a thin coat of Chinese paint looked like it would be too much for Moscow to stomach, as it refused to sell Beijing small numbers of the aircraft.
Ultimately, however, self-interest seems to prevailed on both sides, with China supposedly agreeing to acquire 24 Su-35s – not as many as the Russians wanted, but just about enough to make the sale worthwhile.
China clearly needs the Su-35, perhaps for its military capabilities, perhaps for its technology, and probably for both. Moscow may fret that after buying one batch of 24 aircraft China will not come back for more. But for the Chinese the hard part – the act of buying from a foreign supplier – is now over. So a follow-on order is possible, especially if the PLA has argued for the Sukhoi because it needs the aircraft for military reasons. Certainly, as tensions simmer in the East Sea and the South China Sea, arguments for buying the Su-35 as a frontline fighter become increasingly compelling. China’s current aircraft are almost certainly overmatched by Japanese F-15s, for example.
Russia, for its part, needs China’s business, since many of its once-stalwart customers are no longer reliable markets. China is close to achieving self-reliance in defense production: The Su-35 sale could be Moscow’s last hurrah in that particular marketplace. India, once heavily dependent on Russian kit, is diversifying its supply base. Vietnam’s economic situation is precarious, and Hanoi could struggle to pay for the Russian systems it has already ordered, let alone acquire more. All bets are off as far as Syria is concerned. And future orders from Venezuela could depend on Hugo Chavez’s parlous state of health.
So Moscow will hold its nose as it sells its best fighter aircraft to the Chinese. And the sale could produce more than just Beijing’s cash. Perhaps by handing China the highly capable Su-35, Russia is hoping to create demand for its fighter aircraft elsewhere in the region.
John Chan
Buying the Su-35s probably is China’s way to nudge Russia into modern economy, China shows the Russian that they need to earn market by merits and values, not by monopoly. China needs Russia to counter the greedy imperialist West. China needs a way to develop Russian’s potentials, buying the Su-35s is to encourage Russian to be competitive; there is a pot of gold as long as Russia can offer superior products.
Jean-Paul
@ John Chan
You are trying to spin this so that it does not make China look bad. John Chan weren't you claiming how superior the J-15's were? Why does China need to buy Russian warplanes if they can make their own? I think it is for two main reasons. #1 being that Chinese warplanes are junk, useless cannon fodder for the western warplanes. #2 being that China wishes to continue its sneakiness by trying to create more cheap, counter-feit warplanes at the expense of Russia.
Only China would use such unscrupulous means to try and aquire technology. It is now resorting to even showing treachery towards one of its few remaining allies the Russians.
John Chan
@Jean-Paul,
The West always bad mouths Chinese products, yet they are continue buying them. Not only buying but the demand on the China goods is so high it is creating international trade issues, meanwhile the West is blaming China for the problem instead of taking some responsibility for themselves. Using your logic, can I say the following?
#1 being the westerners are liars, their words do not match their actions.
#2, being the westerners wish to continue to exploit the blood and sweat of the poor Chinese laborers, so that they can live beyond their means like parasites?
Ryan
@JohnChan The poor Chinese peasants are exploited more by their "Communist" masters and the Chinese billionaires. Seiously how much do you get paid by the Commies to spout their pseduo nonsense about "peace" Haha. China and peace is like a Cadillac without a V8. Never seen.
John Chan
@Ryan,
Both Cadillac ATS and CTS come with 6 cylinder engine only, since Cadillac is the symbol of American high time, is the downsizing of Cadillac engine synonymize to the American decline, macho no more?
scdad07
Just get the news that Ford is reviving Lincolin brand and comitting a billion.
What's wrong with this dude Lincoln vs Cadillac? bi;rther right?
scdad07
Words of 'Steal/Copy' not used for once!
Words of 'Threat of China'…… not used again!
WOW! so threatened!!!
Arty
Typical paid posters, just reading the first line.
If China has better planes, they dont need to buy from others. That's all. Now with what happened, we just know what the truth is.
Tamera Kingston
Hahaha, John. So, China's altruistically doing Russia a cultural favor, helping it move into contemporary world society and economics? That's hilarious. Russia's limiting problem isn't understanding international economics or leverage; it's stopping the oligarchical corruption that suppresses competition and meritoriously distributes the rewards of economic competitiveness internal to its own nation. And what's with the "greedy imperialist West" remark? Are you brainwashed by the PRC leadership, or just like using hackneyed phrases? China's greed and imperialism makes the U.S. and other Western nations look like rank amateurs by comparison.
Brad
Don't bother the CCP mouthpiece. These is so much spin in his comments his desk chair starts to turn as he types them.
Tom
John Chan: I think you have descended from an intelligent commenter to a propaganda machine. Please don't tell the world that China is giving away charity money to help the Russians. Even the ordinary Chinese would find it impossible to swallow. Btw, there is nothing shameful admitting that China-made weapon is not of the same quality as Russian or Western-made.
scdad07
American weapons were battle tested over and over again. So, u should buy it.
Why couldn't they win the WARs outright since WW2, despite overwhelming advantages in killing fire power over 'inferior' opponents?
scdad07
On the other side, India is very concerned as the 'DEAL' involved more than just 24 Su-35 (sale of S400/IL-78/…),.
James
India is going to acquire french Rafales… You know, the very same place that did got F-22 on target during dogfights in UAE.
Rgds from India
harry
China has nothing to learn from Russia interms of onboard electronic/radar systems. Buying the Su-35 is purely for the engines.
applesauce
exactly, if the sale happens, its for the engines, the SU-35 can provides not much else, certainly nothing that justified the money, it only uses only russian weapons and requires russian service should the planes need it(and we know how fed up people are with russian service). and unless the russians provide it very quickly the chinese comparable versions(even if slightly worst) will be in service making these plane not an asset but a logistical problem. as for the like of the japanese f-15's, j-10b are going to be in service within the next 2 years, the j-11b are being produced and in several more years(6 or so) intitial chinese 5th gens will be flying.
and as usual because this rumor has presisted and resurface every time zhuhai airshow happens im inclined to wait and see rather than placing my faith in on taiwanese news article or even the russians who have been hawking this plane forever, until the import/export services shows it or an offical chinese source says it i would take such news with a grain of salt
Denis
Su-35 uses AFAR unit, chinese doesn't have this tech right now.
klee
If I were China, I would satisfy Russia's need to buy 48 Su-35s from them, but they have to sell the proprietary right to let China to manufacture the AL-41F1 engines including the technology transfer.
Brad
China still does not have the same percision equipment or intellectual capacity as Russia to be able to produce them to the same standards. Some things have to be slowly developed indigeniously.
Errol
I hope Putin knows what he's doing. Russians are known for being pragmatic, but I hope this doesn't bite him years down the road. Once China reaches a certain strength, I worry that it might push to regain its 'lost' territories to the north. Not that I fear the Russians would be defeated. Their trump card ensures they wouldn't be bothered, but there could be new headlines that we would not wish to see.
BTW, say what you will about performance, but the Russians can make good-looking jets and warships.
John Chan
@Errol,
If Russia loses the control of Siberia, it will not be because of China, it will be Russia no longer can maintain its effective control over Siberia, just like the way it lost control of all its former republics in the USSR.
Russian population is declining fast and the exodus of Siberia makes Russia maintaining its control of Siberia unsustainable, that’s why Russians are abusing Siberia before they lose it. Russia should negotiate an arrangement with China that it can obtain a long term stream of income by letting China manage the Siberia for them. It will be the smartest thing Putin could do for Russia.
Ignatich
Don't be ridiculous. According to offical data population growth in Russia is positive across virtually all of it's regions.
James
Typical propaganda line. You are spotted Mr Chan.
As China lost control of Taiwan, I'm sure you agree it's better to let Taiwan manage itself… right?
Here are your 50 cents. As for Siberia, dream about it.
mareo2
"…An anonymous officer from an African air force delegation at this week’s air show in Chinaw raps it up : “When you come and see these aircraft you relate them to what you have seen before. [...] That is why some people don’t want to send their planes here. You come back in five years and it’s called a J-something.”…"
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/cat/aircraft/fighters-attack/
E.G. "China refutes its new jet fighter J-15 is a Russian Su-33 copy"
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-11-27/news/35385724_1_fighter-jet-china-refutes-aircraft-carrier
“The problem that the Chinese face with aircraft platforms is that most of their stuff isn’t that spectacular,” said Richard Bitinger, a former CIA analyst. “It’s functional and, I suppose, relatively cheap, but the market is awash in reasonably priced competitors — used F-16s and the Gripen, for example. Also, most countries will refuse to buy Chinese fighters because they can probably afford something better, and those who cannot afford to buy better are unlikely to buy anything rather than buy Chinese fighters.”
But many African states will settle for something even cheaper and simpler to operate. Here is where China has been its most successful: selling the K-8 trainer/light attack jet.
“Most of the countries can’t afford or [aren’t] able to operate anything more complicated, probably don’t really need it (considering their strategic environment), and the light K-8 fulfills their needs for a jet-powered air force,” Bitzinger said. “Chinese fighters, in my opinion, still fall between two stools: too much plane for the really poor countries, and too inferior for the developing nations that prefer a Western system.”
http://www.defensenews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2012311190001
"…There are also suspicions China will only want the Su-35 engine for the twin-engine Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter. The engine in the Su-35 and the T-50 is the Saturn AL-117S, which is an upgraded variant of the AL-31FN. China already imports the AL-31FN from Russia for the single-engine Chengdu J-10 fighter.
“If they procure one spare for every four installed [on China’s Su-35], which you don’t really need, then that’s a warning sign,” said the U.S. source. “There is no fixed ratio for spare engines to installed engines [for the deal] at this time.”…"
"…“The key question is if the Chinese can apply the Su-35 technology to their J-11B family aircraft. If the difference between these two types is big enough, than they cannot absorb that technology quickly and there is the possibility that they will evaluate the Su-35 and then buy additional number of them,” he said.
Kashin said the first batch of Chinese procured Su-27SK fighters in 1992 was for only 26 aircraft. “If they like it and if the J-11B project is not going smoothly, than they can buy more,” or buy the license to build the Su-35 in China.
“The J-11B program is in big trouble; the Chinese have lost a lot of aircraft in crashes,” said the U.S. source. “They have also reached a technological plateau and need help going to the next step beyond the Su-27/J-11.”…"
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20121125/DEFREG03/311250003/Is-China-Buying-Russia-8217-s-Su-35-Fighter-
"…So Moscow will hold its nose as it sells its best fighter aircraft to the Chinese…"
I think that Russia's best fighter is the PAK-FA, but being joint developed with India there is no way India agree to Russia sell it to China and the russians are unlikely to give their very best to China, not only for fear of copy, Taiwan and India are not the only countries that get "mixed messages" from the PRC.
E.G. "…This year, the one hint that UAVs might be used against aircraft carriers was an imaginative entry in a competition on future UAV designs sponsored by Aviation Industry Corp. of China (AVIC). In this case, a stealthy Blue Shark UCAV was shown attacking Russia’s Kuznetsov aircraft carrier…"
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20121126/DEFREG03/311260001/China-8217-s-Unmanned-Aircraft-Evolve-from-Figment-Reality
"…And the sale could produce more than just Beijing’s cash. Perhaps by handing China the highly capable Su-35, Russia is hoping to create demand for its fighter aircraft elsewhere in the region…"
Agree, many countries go for life extension upgrades or buying used planes, competition for sales of new planes as become a matter of survival for some companies.
bert
Su-35BM is a winged Godzilla i.e. a piece of crap. The reason why China agreed to the deal was to avoid "unforeseen hiccups" in the supply of engines by Rosoboron. How in the world would 24 Godzillas ever survive against 180+ Raptors? Crazy. China now has 3 options:1) reject the deal in 2013 & investigate who agreed to it 2) go ahead but demand a big discount on the price to enable the PLAAF to remodel/remake the jets to integrate them with PLAAF service munitions 3) accept the deal but hand over all the planes to either Pakistan or Iran.
Denis
Stop your dreamings boy.
Su-35 is the most capable tactical fighter right after F-22: APAR unit, battle network system (developed from old system used in MiG-31), etc. Modelings show two Su-35 will most likely shot F-22 down being more than 4 times less in cost each in production and about 7 times less in cost in service. With chinese human resources this thing, not the overpriced unreliable F-22 or outdated F-15, will own the skyies in hypothetical WW3.
bert
Su-35 is a FLYING PIG. Why ? In any aerial clash between a Su-35 and a Raptor this single-seat Sukhoi will become bacon-and-eggs breakfast for the Raptor. Don't ever readily put down others' comments if you do NOT know the truth. The Raptor (despite its much publicised problems) still has no peer in the world right now. Smaller agile fighters like the Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen NG & even the J-10B when used in sustained numbers stand a better chance against the Raptor compared to the Su-35 the FLYING PIG of the 21st century..
bert
Computer simulations done by the U.S. air force for the Pentagon have credited the F-22 with a kill ratio of 10 to 1 against the Su-35 and 30 to 1 against the baseline Su-27. The F-22's motto is "first look, first shot, first kill". The Su-35 is totally naked when in the company of the F-22. In short, the Su-35 is nothing but a humbug. That's not to say the F-22 is extremely perfect. It is designed to quickly wrest air superiority in the first few days of combat. If an adversary is able to struggle on and combat stretches into weeks and months the F-22 loses effectiveness at influencing the outcome. A smart adversary will always harness his resources to nullify the F-22's advantage in this manner. As for the Su-35 it is fit for the scrap bin right from day one.
Brad
With Syria cut off from the teet, Russia must be very desperate to agree to such a small sale of their best operational plane to China, knowing that it will be the first and last sale.
China will strip a few of them down, copy them, navalize the new version, and put it on their 3 domestically produce carriers. They will then build a few hundred more standard copies and put them on their northern border with Russia, and their southern flanks with India and the Southeast Asian nations.
Thanks Russia, all for however much 24 of these costs.
Buying To Boost Numbers Immediately
War is coming. It is faster to buy in order to increase the number of fighter planes in service. So, all you Washington paid sockpuppets and negative wishful thinkers, can take a hike. You don't have any facts. Just merely bad mouthing China and thinking the worst. What kind of people does that make you? I wonder how you can llive with yourself, making a living like this?
Luiz G Bresciani
May I submit following question: if the RAPTORS are so unbeatable tell me: why USA after 10 years have started war in Afeghanistan and IRAK and not could yet wind such war scenarios? The answer is simple: who win a war is who can occupy the land. Beyond this a war is not made as were made the films in Hollyood!
Be Way
China is doing a great favor to Russia by standing along with it unwaveringly when the warmongering West has never stop indulging in its plan to make mince meat out of Russia. In U.N, in Syria and in everywhere, both great giants will lend their sholders unselfishly to keep the malicious Western Imperialist from trying to bulldoze thru by violating every international law and orders.
What a great way that both of them see eye to eye with each other by their words and deeds. .
The West is blowing hot air, realising that its sinister hegemony game plan to rule the world is slowly falling apart.
Roman
I think Russia will not sell nothing more to China, because of theire stupid practice to steel Russian technology and sell tham to third countries. China has to design engines, rockets, radars and others itself. But India has opportunity to buy the best war technics in the world.
major lowen gil marquez
The Russian Military plane business will be in big trouble if the will sell some SU-35 to chinese communist China for one deal and single quota only for not morethan a couple od dozens, the intent of the Chinese is to aquire this latest aircraft in order to clone it and will have a mass produce in China and will use it to invade the Western Philippine Sea, The Japanese territory and other South East Asian nation. This dealings will just killing the ghatoose that lay a golden eggs on the side of the Russian People…