Timing is the great unacknowledged dark art of games publishing. A difference of weeks, even days can equate to thousands of additional boxes shifted. Just look at Medal of Honor: Warfighter, for instance. It's a fairly shambolic military shooter which can't hold a cigarette lighter to the likes of Battlefield 3, but in releasing a couple of weeks before Black Ops 2 - and thus, leveraging annual Call of Duty fever - EA has scraped the semblance of a victory from the jaws of defeat. The game topped UK charts in launch week, despite almost universal reviewer disdain. It probably won't pull that off again, and the publisher has already noted that sales are "below expectations", but it's better than Warfighter deserves.
Fortunately, there's also mounting evidence that you can, in fact, make a living off a new IP in the twilight of a console generation, and further that the old "October-November or bust" trend is on the wane. It's probably premature to hail the wonderful Dishonored as a commercial triumph - though the game has sold strongly since release, hanging on at third in the most recent UK charts despite competition from the likes of the ultra-populist Just Dance 4 and the dependably recognisable Resident Evil 6. But it's hardly jumping the gun to celebrate the heavily under-marketed Dragon's Dogma, which has "exceeded expectations" (presumably including Capcom's 1.5 million sales projection in May) and contributed to an overall half-year profit rise of 55 per cent.
Sadly, United Front's Sleeping Dogs doesn't appear to have cut the mustard to quite the same degree - the game enjoyed great success in the UK but didn't break 300,000 sales in the US, and has reportedly failed to meet Square Enix's projections. It's demonstrably no flop, but it hasn't set the world alight either. Producer Dan Sochan was bullish about the game's fortunes when we discussed the question of new IP and generational change-over last week. "We've always heard for years that you don't want to launch a new console IP at the end of a life cycle," he told OXM. "And I'm sure there must be some strong facts and figures supporting that, but you're right - it's worked very well for us timing-wise. Dishonored's another fantastic game."
10 comments so far...
Grummy on 31 Oct '12 said:
I've never really understood why summer was a dead-zone for game releases, surely it should be a prime time? Kids are out of school, so they'll all want new games to play, and as an adult gamer, I can't honestly say that I have any aversion to buying games in the summer, just the opposite, I WANT more games in the summer. Also, as a prospective parent, I don't see a time at all in the future where summer will be harder for me to game than winter. Sure, I won't be putting in hours and hours every day, but I'll still be able to game frequently, or mores to the point, just as frequently in one season as another.
I really don't get it.
DGR1980 on 31 Oct '12 said:
Speaking as someone who gets sunburnt in factor 50 sun cream in 5 minutes during the summer, the more decent games that come out may - august the better
FishyGinger on 31 Oct '12 said:
People of the non-vampire complexion generally stay outside longer in summer, play games less and the younglings are taken away on holidays. I myself am a daywalker but I still like to head out more in summer.
Grummy on 31 Oct '12 said:
Some, yes, but if GTA V was announced for release August 2nd next year, it wouldn't lose any sales for it, indeed, people would make a point of still buying and playing it because it's a big deal for gamers.
Also, we don't exactly get a lot of sunshine in British summers, and holidays only take up a couple of weeks across a whole 3ish month season.
FishyGinger on 31 Oct '12 said:
It's impossible to say any numbers but I'd have thunk people still prefer to go out even when the weather isn't the best. Town is always jam packed of a weekend certainly but would think people tend to spend their money on films/games when it's dark and cold and cinema/eating out when it's summer....and cold.
These companies do generally know their stuff with marketing and release dates though so there must be some good reason for it.
Grummy on 31 Oct '12 said:
And yet trends change. The games industry has changed and grown so fast that some aspects will be lagging behind. It's very possible that they're labouring under outdated practices but no major publisher is willing to take the plunge to test the waters.
CunningSmile on 31 Oct '12 said:
I find it hard to shake the feeling that much of this perceived "wisdom" is based on massively outdated info from previous console cycles.
Going back to the PS1/N64 era we could expect to wait only a few years before a new console came along that was truly revolutionary so why would you buy a new game at the end of that time? You bought the sequel because that's where you played the first but the new IPs came with the new console because that's where you could do new stuff.
Looking at the current generation and both the big consoles have untapped potential and are still turning out games that were undreamt of at launch. The games have gone from strength to strength as developers have got to grips with the programming but the publishers are still locked in this old idea and so don't support new releases. No marketing = no sales and that is then held up as proof they were right not to promote it in the first place.
fracturedrich on 31 Oct '12 said:
we have gone from new ip to summer winter winter release its some thing to do with christmas, games should be more spread out there will be loads before next summer .dishonored and dragons dogma have left me wanting more but i class xcom as a new ip guys and that has also left me wanting more but playing ac3 today says i dont care if its new ip or a follow up as long as the time has been put into it and its good ime all for it .
Worthies on 1 Nov '12 said:
I suppose many companies might still be using sales models from a few years ago when gaming was still a niche market, however since gaming has become one of, if not the largest entertainment medium at the moment, with video games completely outselling everything else last Christmas. So why not release games all year round, they do it with films without major repercussions to their sales.
CunningSmile on 2 Nov '12 said:
You say films do it but in the film industry they still aim for May, August or November/December for the Blockbusters and everyone else stears clear. Similarly kids films tend to aim for June/July and Horror films do better in late October (sure you can guess why) I think it's just that the film industry has had time to get more diverse in terms of size that it seems to be more spread out. In fact if you include XBLA, Indie titles etc barely a week goes by that there isn't something released for Xbox.