While the purpose of the political conventions was to draw clear distinctions between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney, the two men remain identical in one key respect: When they open their mouths before a national audience, their odds of winning in November suffer.
As you see here, the likelihood of Obama's re-election jumped about 1 percentage point immediately after Romney's address last Thursday evening, and fell slightly after Obama's turn last night. (The Signal's model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections relies on many contemporary and historical factors, but the fine-tuned reactions you see here are driven by prediction markets.)
Likelihood of Reelection For Obama
Sources: Betfair, Intrade, HuffPost's Pollster, RealClearPolitics
Romney received a tempered bounce in the polls from his own convention, leaving the polls virtually tied. The Democratic convention appears to have been slightly better received. While first lady Michelle Obama's speech did not move the markets much by
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