Almost half of the more than 650 technology executives polled by KPMG expect Silicon Valley to surrender its role by 2016. China is the favourite to eclipse California, with almost 30pc predicting the world’s centre of innovation will shift eastwards.
China has “fostered an environment which encourages the development of disruptive technologies and we simply can’t ignore what is coming around the corner anymore,” said Tudor Aw, head of technology in Europe at KPMG.
The conclusions certainly chime with the ambitions of both China and India to move up the technology food chain and become more than manufacturing hubs for western companies such as Apple.
Despite the increasing economic muscle of China and India, Silicon Valley has seen off rivals before - most notably in the 1980s when Japanese electronics companies such as Sony were at their peak. Those who dismiss the threat from fast-growing economies claim they will find it hard to replicate the mix of free markets and government encouragement that has handed Silicon Valley its leading role over the last 40 years.
The survey may also make depressing reading for those in Britain trying to create a rival to Silicon Valley. Just 1pc of those questioned picked the UK to become the next global hub of technological innovation.
David Cameron has been among the champions of Silicon Roundabout in east London’s Old Street, where efforts to establish a technology hub have been focused. The last two years have seen Old Street attract now well-established companies like Google as well as a slew of smaller start-ups from the UK and elsewhere.
“No one would argue with the fact that the UK is a creative hub which is reflected in our fashion and music but, with a few notable execptions, what we have been poor at in the tech sector, is taking that creativity to a commercial model,” said Mr Aw.
Almost 30pc of executives expect the next disruptive innovation to emerge from the development of mobile technology that has been key to the success of devices uch as the iPad. Meanwhile, concerns over privacy and the security of individuals and companies’ data will prove the biggest impediment to the commercial development of new technologies, the survey found.
