As the consequences of the Arab Spring play out, a new series of challenges is confronting Britain’s security services. The election of a president belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt presages an uncertain time in the Middle East, as new alliances are forged and old ones ditched. In Libya, continued factionalism threatens to undermine attempts to form a stable government.
To a greater or lesser extent, Syria, Somalia, Lebanon, Yemen and some of the Gulf states have all undergone upheaval. This instability has implications for us beyond the diplomatic. As Jonathan Evans, the director general of MI5, pointed out in his speech in the City of London last night, this Arab turbulence is once again creating a “permissive environment” in which al-Qaeda can operate and attract a new generation of British-born terrorists.
In view of what has happened in Afghanistan, it is clearly not in the interests of Egypt or any other Arab nation to harbour al-Qaeda, not least because the organisation is invariably an implacable enemy of governments that do not follow its Islamist prescriptions. While al-Qaeda may have largely been pushed out of Afghanistan, it has regrouped in Yemen and may see further opportunities to establish bases elsewhere in the Middle East. Osama bin Laden’s death in May last year has not diminished al-Qaeda’s desire to continue its jihad against the West, even if its capacity to do so has been degraded. Mr Evans entitled his speech “The Olympics and Beyond”, which was a reminder that the biggest security headache currently facing MI5 and the police is very much on our own doorstep. But when the Games have finished, it is crucial that we do not drop our guard.
