The next Xbox or PlayStation could be a tablet PC rather than a console, suggested industry veteran Guy Wilday on Wednesday.
Speaking on a panel at the Launch Conference in Birmingham, the former Codemasters studio head, now working as a consultant, said that the traditional five-year console life cycle has stalled for good, and that delivering games on more flexible platforms was the future.
"The market has changed – the industry is focused on content," he said.
"It's less about rapid innovation of platforms and more about focusing on games themselves and making sure they're deeper. It's exciting, it's a very different challenge."
Wilday praised the App Store model as a straightforward route to market for games, and suggested that future consoles would work in a similar way – even borrowing their form factor from mobile devices, a notion that has previously been put forward by other developers.
"Will consoles be tablets?" he asked. "It's an interesting possibility. You can stream tablet content to your TV now, and tablet graphics hardware is becoming exponentially more powerful. That whole dynamic of having a device that you use in one way, then bring home and use in another way is an influence going forward."
Intriguingly, Nick Burton – incubation director at Rare, the UK studio now owned by Microsoft and responsible for a lot of the early development work on the Kinect – suggested that console game development itself would be moving toward a smartphone model of shorter development periods, followed by regular post-release iterations as publishers use analytics to see how gamers are using their products, reacting with new content accordingly.
"Content is still king," he said. "But what I do think we're going to see is deeper use of analytics in games, especially as everyone becomes connected all the time – it makes it easier for us to tune our products to suit our audience, whether that's on a handheld device or a bigger platform.
"We're all getting a lot better at finding out what our audience wants and reacting to that. With that sort of iteration, long development cycles over multiple years is going to go away."
As Burton's team worked with very early versions of Kinect, it's safe to assume the product he's currently "incubating" is the next Xbox console.
His comments suggest that the next games platform from Microsoft could be built around a model that hovers somewhere between the smartphone market and the current Xbox Live set-up.
But will the next consoles be entirely cloud-based, with game content streaming from remote servers rather than coming on discs or as downloads?
Burton seems unconvinced for now.
"Cloud computing is interesting," he said. "There are balancing issues when something like Battlefield 3 is released and seven million gamers bring your server farm down on day one. But it does offer the potential for our industry to have very long tail on a particular device.
"It can become more like a set-top box – you just sell a small, cheap £99 'thing' and that's your gaming device for the next 10-20 years.
"It's early days though, the net's not ready – we're pretty well connected in the UK but many areas still have latency issues. I wouldn't want to do it just yet …"
Maybe the Xbox 1080, then?
Comments
17 November 2011 12:34PM
Cloud gaming is deinfitely the future.
OnLIve has a lot of potential and the next gen consoles will probably take a lot of inspiration from it. Being able to spectate your friends' game feeds from an iPad in real time and access your content through different devices will be the future.
Rather than tablet based, I think they stick to their roots but have tablet support (a la Wii U)
17 November 2011 12:41PM
I'm not really convinced by tablets for gaming - they can boost the tech specs all they like, but the UI is very limiting when it comes to playing certain types of game. However, I can definitely see Cloud gaming being dominant in maybe a decade's time.
Right now - and for the next generation of consoles - I think we're just too hampered by the poor broadband infrastructure and issues of lag and capacity. The games-buying public also needs further weaning off boxed product, despite the strong success of DLC and downloadable games to date.
But Online et al have really shown that this sort of service is possible and I'm sure Microsoft in particular would love to take us down that road.
17 November 2011 12:55PM
Tablet computers (well the iPad in particular) has really helped to kill off portable gaming - the Sony and Nintendo brands have suffered in recent years because casual gamers aren't that interested in new consoles when they can download Angry Birds in an instant and play for a quid or two.
With regard to cloud gaming and OnLive, it is really clever stuff and is the only platform where you don't need to worry about upgrading your hardware as OnLive upgrades their host computers and servers as they go - so over time you will see improvements visually in the games you play. Unfortunately, I don't think the general public are ready for cloud gaming or the cloud in general. Give it another five or so years and then maybe people will "get" the concept. Unfortunately, people are hung up on owning product and the thing about OnLive is that you can't pirate the games as they are hosted in the cloud. I like it as a platform though, it is really good, but I think it is too far ahead of itself, which is a shame.
But tablets overthrowing consoles? Hmmmm... I cannot see it for a while - hardcore gamers like their 42" HD TV and surround sound speaker setups and unless the tablet connects to that rig, it's not going to be wanted. Part of the appeal of consoles is their ability to fit in with your existing home entertainment system and I haven't seen a tablet that can do that successfully yet. I know you can stream games from the iPad to the Apple TV device so you can play on the big screen, but again, I don't think the public are ready for this high concept yet.
Just my two-penny-worth....
17 November 2011 12:56PM
Episodic content can work, but the biggest named example of it, Half-Life 2, shows how it doesn't.
It needs reasonable pricing models (OK, they largely got this bit right)
It needs a regular release schedule (Episode 3 is where exactly?)
It needs good quality content of a decent length (Debatable)
But ultimately what you need is for the game to come out on schedule and not be so long between episodes everyone loses interest.
17 November 2011 12:58PM
This cloud nonsense is no where near ready.
The next generation will look a lot like the current. With some more RAM and processing power. Something they both need now.
They wont be tablet based as they would not risk something like that. They will probably watch to see how the WiiU performs in this regard.
Interface will still be a controller with some motion controls tacked on as an afterthought.
The games are moving towards a terrible constant payment reality without dropping the price of the original game. Look at the way more and more companies are keeping things back from the original release so they can sell it a few months later.
17 November 2011 12:59PM
So, basically consoles are becoming more like PCs again then? - Upgrade them as technology developes except not really because you've got to replace the whole console not just the out dated components.....
I think that misses the point on consoles really - people buy them so they can have a standardised expereince playing their games without having to worry about having to upgrade it every couple of months / years / whatever. Hard to see people happy to pay the premium you get when buying console games compared to PC games, and then having to buy the latest interation of their console on a much more regular basis.
17 November 2011 1:03PM
I think using 'the cloud' to support an entire game would be far too expensive to be viable, and it would only be used as yet another gimmicky DRM.
It would also mean you need to have a reliable high-speed internet connection to play a singleplayer game.
However, if by streaming people mean sending applicable portions of the game's code to the client, this is no different from downloading and World of Warcraft already does something like this if you haven't finished downloading it and want to play it.
As for everything being tablet-based, I think Nintendo have demonstrated (with the Wii and DS) that certain games are much less suited to touchscreens than others. That said, I'm firmly of the belief that the day our clicky-clicky buttons disappear from our controllers is the day gaming as we know it dies.
17 November 2011 1:06PM
Repsond to my own post here:
I didn't mean experience - I meant a standardised platform on which to experience their games. Apologies.
17 November 2011 1:32PM
The Cloud is unarguably the future, just not the near future.
Not convinced about the tablet possibility, I think people are taking the musings on the business model too literally. A lot of fancy extra functionality is only going to drive the unit price up out of many people's price range, the manufacturers want to get the device in as many homes as possible in order to sell content through it, which is where the money is always going to be, hardware is not profitable.
Also, the main problem with having one device for everything is that you can only do one thing at a time with it.
17 November 2011 1:48PM
Add a bluetooth controller to an iPad and Apple TV and you've got a nice home console that's likely good enough for most people.
In fact, even without the Apple TV you could still happily play away on the tablet. Traditional consoles would find it hard to compete with that setup.
17 November 2011 1:51PM
deadrockstar
"Tablet computers (well the iPad in particular) has really helped to kill off portable gaming""
Hilarious product placement. Got an iPad by any chance?
No, it hasn't. Phones did that.
17 November 2011 1:57PM
That's comedy gold.
17 November 2011 2:09PM
I think the next MS and Sony consoles will be physical plug in boxes. After that I'd imagine any required onboard processing would be through a tv or tablet or whatever. Part cloud, part smart tv hardware running an xbox or playstation software platform.
Thought anything in this area is going to be so heavily influenced, I'm afraid, by what Apple do. If rumours of a bona fide Apple television set are true, then it could be another market changing product. Maybe no one here (definitely not me) is interested in playing Angry Birds on their tv, but millions will be. And watching stuff through itunes and dedicated apps.
And where the casuals go, MS and Sony go chasing after them.
If any of that is right, then MS are better placed than Sony in that their platform Xbox Live is actually decent. Although Sony are supposed to be doing a lot of software and cloud work on their whole product range as well.
I also doubt whether you'd be able to plug an xbox into an Apple tv.
17 November 2011 2:10PM
tablet gaming is the future, errr no it isnt
anyone else fancy trying to snipe someone on the latest tablet version of battlefield while on the bus going to work?
console will always be king
17 November 2011 2:12PM
Sounds good. When's Skyrim coming out for the ipad? Or any half decent, multi-million selling triple A release? As long as there's a huge market for high-end gaming experiences, there'll be someone catering for that market.
17 November 2011 2:13PM
What's so funny?
17 November 2011 2:17PM
Not really, despite the negative headlines the 3DS is outperforming the original DS at the same stage of it's life. Hopefully Vita will do well too, it looks life a really nice machine but we shall see. Clearly there's a market for very cheap games, but that doesn't mean no-one will be prepared to pay for quality.
Yes, it's terrible that people want to own the stuff they buy, rather than just renting it for the same price but dramtically reduced rights.
Personally I don't see how cloud gaming offers any real advantage for consumers beyond a possibly reduced inital outlay on the hardware. I hope it's a long long time before this becomes anything like the norm.
17 November 2011 2:20PM
Isn't it time we redefined what we mean by "the media". I do not regard game consoles as part of the media. Nor, come to that, do I regard the film industry or the makers of Big Brother, or the publishers of Harry Potter or The Sense of an Ending, to be part of the media.
They are other things. They interest me, but they are not what journalists do.
Obviously, the picture becomes blurred when entertainment and news are part of the same organisation, as with the BBC, Channel 5 or the Sun. But the media, if it is to mean anything, and not everything, should be understood to cover, overwhelmingly, news, current affairs, general interest and specialist features (e.g. Books, sport and the arts), information, investigations and opinion.
The media is that which writes, or speaks, about things. Google is of vast importance to the media and provides a platform for many media enterprises. But it is a medium, not the message – and it is the message with which we, as journalists, should primarily be concerned. When we confuse the two, as Marshall McLuhan suggested all those years ago, then we lose focus and end up part of the marketing and advertising industry.
Gaming consoles and the mindless games that go with them may (sadly) be economically important, but they are not the media. They are – or should be – a media concern.
17 November 2011 2:22PM
You were being serious? Really? You shouldn't admit to that.
17 November 2011 2:24PM
If Apple did actually release a controller for the iPad is not plausible that we could see a deluge of ports from consoles? I'm not trying to argue that they'd be graphically cutting edge, although they wouldn't look too shoddy either. I just think that it could fulfill the role of a traditional console for a large proportion of people, not just those happy with touch screen games.
I concede it's a bit out there but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. At least no more so than the prospect of iOS eating the DS and PSP's lunch was a few years back.
17 November 2011 2:28PM
Nintendo are making a loss.
Sony are making a loss.
Microsoft are profitable, but only just.
The economics of console games means that most titles are also loss makers. Only the mega franchises are keeping the market lumbering onward.
New console hardware is not going to change the economics. And could make matter worse.
The business model is not sustainable. Many are seeing the signs that the age of the video game dinosaurs is coming to an end. And nimble little mammals are arriving to replace them.
The future is electronic distribution, smaller projects, smaller developers and more original titles.
C.
17 November 2011 2:29PM
Firstly, I doubt you have ever played a video game, so you have little cause to call them "mindless" save reiterating tabloid cant.
I do not follow why it is "sad" (your own words) that they are economically important. Would you care to elaborate? Is the cinema "sad"? Are books "sad"? Is sport "sad"? All are equally valid recreational activities, all are economically important to different degrees.
And they are by definition "media" in the same way as film, theatre, literature or music is a "medium" of communication. It is you who appears unaware of the capacity of words to have more than one meaning.
17 November 2011 2:30PM
When the future is either mega franchises or cut-price profit-first titles (be they "freemium" or simply low-budget 79p Angry Birds similars) then what you have is individuality completely crushed.
17 November 2011 2:34PM
Cloud gaming and tablet based games are not exclusive.
I've had OnLive since its UK launch and it does work. My original intention was to use it as a back up to my PS3 but some of the silly deals they put up mean I've ended up getting more games on than I expected. The ease of games just turning up without any worry of postage is great. I've played Space Marine on Onlive and PS3 and they are indistinguishable.
Though that gets away from the point. The imminent release of the iPad/Android OnLive app means you can play any game (from the admittedly rubbish selection) on your pad, with the same quality as on a console. Connecting a bluetooth controller to it gives you the same control.
Well that's the theory. So far the reality of the technology has gone way past my expectation.
Building this technology into TVs won't cost much, they already have ethernet connections, I got my OnLive console for £40.
I can't really conceive of a future where cloud based gaming won't dominate and I think that future is much nearer than we expected.
17 November 2011 2:34PM
Think about it. Sony and MS can't fight over who has the shiniest graphics any more - there are improvements to be made, but what will they tell the consumer? 'Now with actual full-blown 1080p, not that upscaled 720p we were flogging to you before'? They can't make that a selling point.
Nintendo were very shrewd in making the Wii so low spec. It gives them a lot of room to manoeuvre with the WiiU, and guarantees some support for the people who just want to see HD Zelda etc. Once again, the other big guns will need to play catch-up in the innovation/gimmicks departments.
17 November 2011 2:36PM
Have you tried the OnLive system? Their season pass seems incredibly good value to me and, to be honest, the rights issue is nothing as you can play OnLive on any computer, anywhere or even own their own "console" adaptor.
17 November 2011 2:38PM
Given the amount of console ports already on iOS, I don't think its 'out there' at all to suggest an Apple branded controller would see more of them. But what you initially said was
I'm not saying money from casuals doesn't make a difference (I've actually said it will decide the shape of the next gen market further up the page). I'm just saying that this dream console set up of yours of a controller plugged into an ipad plugged into an apple tv plugged into a tv isn't at all appealling to the millions and millions of people who bought games like COD, Battlefield et al this year. These people want horsepower.
Additionally given that most casual gamers seem to be happy mindlessly prodding away at a screen in the vague hope of having something other than superficial control over what's going on, I don't think they're clamouring for this device of yours either. In fact it seems that its only when you take the controller away that casuals become interested. (I'm being glib about the touch based controls but even the best of them lacks much depth imo).
17 November 2011 2:45PM
The gatekeepers might not be doing that well. The publishers and developers are doing pretty good though. EA, Activision and all the other bastards are consistently profitable and there's as much appetite for their output as ever.
17 November 2011 2:47PM
Erm... no you havent. There is a massive difference between the latest console games and tossing around on Angry Birds on your Ipad. Massive.
17 November 2011 2:51PM
@Waltroon
I really struggle to understand why people like you feel the need to make comments like this about something you clearly have next to no knowledge of. I bet you think ebooks are the devil too right?
17 November 2011 2:52PM
Cloud....eventually yes, but not until high broadband speeds are significantly more widespread
Tablet for angry birds..... yes
Tablet for Skyrim 2.....not so much.
Isn't it time someone had another proper crack at Virtual reality?
Sony's new headset isnt too far away. Add gyro sensors and Kinnect style tech in four corners of a room and it could get cool.
17 November 2011 2:52PM
Not so good as of late. A lot of game studios are closing down.
And a lot of that talent is heading in the "mammal" direction.
C.
17 November 2011 2:56PM
Actually, I am more optimistic about the future of gaming.
The shift to high performance 3D consoles seemed great at the time, but it's clear it damaged the industry.
Game production costs rose, revenues didn't - and everyone got really risk averse.
With electronic distribution, designers can afford to bring some creativity back.
C.
17 November 2011 2:58PM
I reckon your not wrong. The Online deal where you get a free console with a pre-ordered game is prepostrously good.
If I hadn't already picked up a PS3 many years ago I would be over to them in a shot.
The only real downsides so far as I can see is the slight delay before new releases come out (I would still be waiting for Batman Ac for example) and lack of first party software to pad out the lineup of games.
17 November 2011 3:05PM
Thats not true. 3D consoles, which to my mind includes everything from the Dreamcast/N64 onwards, have ushered in the biggest and most sustained growth in any entertainment sector bar none. The game industry is bigger, more profitable, more accessible and more popular than ever - much of it through the advent of 3d gaming. I thought this was an indisputable fact.
17 November 2011 3:11PM
Digital distribution might well be the future... but it's a distant future. And tablet based consoles? Hell no.
There's this weird thought process going on right now that people who buy cheap, simple games on their iPads would have owned Xbox consoles.
Which isn't the case.
My sister buys games on her iPhone, but doesn't own a DS and has ZERO interest in handheld gaming. She's a prime example.
Just because tablets can play certain games, doesn't mean the people buy them for the purpose of playing games.
17 November 2011 3:11PM
Businesses will follow the money.
The money, the analysts are saying, is in "freemium" and addictive social-casual games.
Ask your hypothetical future gamer and fan of low-cost phone and tablet games what they want, and whether they want a genuinely inventive and challenging game like Dark Souls, Ico, LA Noire or whatever you want, or indeed an indie title like Braid, Limbo, Fez, Minecraft, Dwarf Fortress or some such, or whether they want Farmville, Mafia Wars or Cut The Rope.
The creativity in gaming is still focused on the consoles and the PCs, not on the smartphones. Where is the smartphone's equivalent to Ico?
17 November 2011 3:12PM
You're right. Its also been coupled with a large increase in spending power of a demographic that grew up playing computer games. And continued playing them into adulthood. People who had a Commodore or Spectrum in the 80s or a SNES or Megadrive in the early 90s are now in the work force and earning thousands in disposable income every year.
17 November 2011 3:14PM
"The next Xbox or PlayStation could be a tablet PC rather than a console, suggested industry veteran Guy Wilday on Wednesday."
I said that a few months ago to my pals. Can I be an industry expert now?
17 November 2011 3:15PM
It really depends on if the smartphone game industry as it stands is a bubble, or if it is the future.
And whether Rovio really is worth billions upon billions, putting it in the league of world-leading multinationals.
17 November 2011 3:19PM
Tablets and phones as gaming platforms/ can fit into your home entertainment system if you get one that has an HDMI port, so you can plug it into your HDTV, just like you can a console.
Also, the new version of Android, Ice Cream Sandwich, will come with built in USB control pad support, so you have an ultra portable phone/tablet right.
17 November 2011 3:21PM
Putting a HDTV out on something with the processing power of a mobile phone is a little like putting a pig in a hat.
Ultimately it's still a mobile phone, just on a really big screen (or a pig in a hat, as the case may be).
17 November 2011 3:21PM
* have an ultra portable phone/tablet console right there. Comments section needs an edit function.
17 November 2011 3:23PM
But console and tablet processing power is getting better all of the time. The new Asus Eee Pad transformer is going to have a quad-core processor, and it's only going to get better over the next few years. The changes in processing power, RAM etc will outpace that of the development of consoles.
17 November 2011 3:24PM
The answer to this lies in the following question - If Rovio hadn't made Angry Birds what would they be famous for....i.e. whats the back up plan if the BIrds fly south?
It gets to the point that anyone investing in that company is taking a huge risk that Angry Birds will have legs in it when the next generation of smart phones and tabs come out. I suspect the law of diminishing returns applies.
17 November 2011 3:28PM
I cant be arsed pluging in and out....its going to have to be wireless if thats the way it does go
This model also effectively relies on the assumption that the 'tablet console' will be bought on a per person basis which would be crap. My consoles are used by 4 or 5 different people a day it cant travel around with me.
My phone is mine - no one must touch it!!
17 November 2011 3:35PM
All they are doing is slowly trying to catch up to consoles by putting advancements into a smaller form factor. It won't outpace them.
There is a few years of this generation of consoles left.
My guess for a new console or media center as they have become:
A bit more Processing power and RAM
Very similar controller
Steam like front end when turned on:
Leads to more focus on downloading games straight from Sony or MS
Ability for them to advertise the games a bit more
SSD to install and run these games from, to lower loading times.
The limiting factor would be when the SSDs will come down in price.
17 November 2011 3:39PM
Leaving a HDMI cable plugged into a TV and having to plug in a phone or tablet is hardly an effort. It'd take you a few seconds. It takes longer for a PS3/XBox to boot up then a few seconds.
I get what you mean about your phone being yours, but I'm making the assumption that if individuals, families etc are replacing their desktop PC's or laptops with tablets, I can't see why they wouldn't do the same with the console, especially as it would put everything in one place.
17 November 2011 3:40PM
What I don't want to see is the tablet game "monetisation" system put into single- or multi-player games without some counterbalancing.
While Crimson Alliance shows how to do it right, the more awkward aspects of freemium should stay out of mainstream gaming. No "you can get X tries a day or pay for more", no "you can buy your way to victory," no "the game's drop rates/progress is so punishing without paying for time cards it's barely fun".
I don't mind DLC, but what I want is to be able to buy a game and get the best experience of what's in the stated package without paying more over time.
17 November 2011 3:41PM
Not talking about 3D in general.
But the last generation has seen a dramatic shift in the economics.
With the PS3, Sony's game division dived into the red and stayed there. Gaming has cost Sony billions and they are in no position to launch a new console. The Vita will not solve this.
The 360 is slightly profitable, but the profits don't cover the losses of the XBox era. It's not a raging success.
Nintendo didn't adopt a shift to high end 3D chips and remained profitable. But that seems to be ending too.
Don't get me wrong. I love nice 3D games, with oodles of lavish normal-mapped artwork. I make my living from it. But this last generation has seen the development community thinned down to a handful of studios.
The majority of all console development is being channeled towards sure-fire franchises.
There is no opportunity to launch new franchises, or risky new titles. And that is a bad thing.
The console games industry has become the music industry as run entirely by Simon Cowell. Modern Warfare 3 is the XFactor of gaming. It's crowd-pleasing, but its also stagnant and devoid of creativity.
Lot's of developers are leaving AAA console teams to form start-ups and small garage-band outfits. That's where the real future is.
C.