All Blog Posts from Crossroads

Analysis

There is a new CBS News/New York Times poll out this evening, and here are a few notes that jump out:

WOMEN: One headline out of our poll is the shrinking gender gap. A month ago, President Obama had an 11-point lead over Mitt Romney among women voters. Today's poll, taken after Hillary Rosen's comments and the subsequent firestorm, puts the gap at six points.

But as everyone should know (and despite all we hear about the "female" vote), women aren't some monolithic group. Our poll reveals sharp differences in opinion, for example, between married and single women.

Among MARRIED women, Romney leads Obama 49 to 42 percent. But among SINGLE women, Obama has a huge lead over Romney, 62 to 34 percent.

Typically, married women voters tend to lean Republican by 10 or so points--even more so if they have children. Single women voters, on the other hand, are solidly Democratic. These groups of women voters also would have big differences of opinion on economic issues and in the direction the country is heading.

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Analysis

Attorney General Eric Holder's letter to appeals court judge Jerry Smith flatly says that President Obama's recent statements regarding the Supreme Court's review of the health care law "were fully consistent" with the long-standing principle that courts have the authority to review the constitutionality of federal laws. But Holder doesn't refer to any of Mr. Obama's statements, as Judge Smith asked -- and he takes a few subtle shots at the appeals court.

The letter is written as a two-and-a-half page legal explainer on the court's power to review federal laws, complete with citations of Supreme Court cases going back to Marbury v. Madison in 1803. But it's also a crafty piece of advocacy in the Court of Public Opinion.

Holder spends more than half of the letter arguing courts should defer to Congress, and that the Executive Branch -- in defending federal law -- has often urged judges to be deferential. Again, he cites cases -- although some are quite obscure (see, e.g., United States v. Five Gambling Devices Labeled in Part "Mills," and Bearing Serial Nos. 593-221). All this may be designed to back up the president's remarks that he believes the court should uphold the law -- but it can also be read as a bit of in-your-face legal writing.

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Updated 6:55 p.m. ET

(CBS News) In the escalating battle between the administration and the judiciary, a federal appeals court apparently is calling the president's bluff -- ordering the Justice Department to answer by Thursday whether the Obama Administration believes that the courts have the right to strike down a federal law, according to a lawyer who was in the courtroom.

The order, by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, appears to be in direct response to the president's comments yesterday about the Supreme Court's review of the health care law. Mr. Obama all but threw down the gauntlet with the justices, saying he was "confident" the Court would not "take what would be an unprecedented, extraordinary step of overturning a law that was passed by a strong majority of a democratically elected Congress."

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Sarah B. Boxer, traveling with the Romney campaign, reports:

ROCK HILL, S.C.--The unemployed woman who got a handful of cash from Mitt Romney said today she plan to attend his campaign rally tonight--as Romney for the first time appeared to refer to her in a speech as an example of the pain caused by unemployment.

At a rally this morning in Spartanburg, Romney said the stories of those who are jobless "just breaks your heart."

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The headline from the new CBS News/New York Times poll is pretty simple: Newt Gingrich is way out front in Iowa. But it's not all good news for the former speaker. Two-thirds of likely Iowa Republican caucus goers haven't made up their minds--and our poll indicates there could be problems ahead for Gingrich.

Bottom line: It may look like it's shaping up nationally to be two-man Gingrich-Mitt Romney brawl. But in Iowa, our poll indicates it could well be a four-person race: Gingrich, Romney, Ron Paul and a "true" social conservative like Michele Bachmann. And that means it as wide open as ever.

That's right. When you look past the horserace stuff (which you have to do since most voters say they haven't made up their minds), the poll is packed full of fascinating data about what Iowa voters are thinking and care about. It has some potentially ominous signals for Gingrich. It also has some good news for Paul--and surprisingly good news for Bachmann.

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UPDATED 11:24 a.m. ET

The settlement agreement between the National Restaurant Association and a woman who accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment was reached in September 1999--and was not signed by Cain himself, according to Joel Bennett, a lawyer for the woman.

Bennett, who has a copy of the settlement agreement, said four people signed it: the woman, two lawyers representing the association and Bennett himself.

Bennett said the agreement was resolved relatively quickly, about two or three months after she complained.

That means it may have been reached after Cain left the association, and Bennett said it's conceivable that Cain didn't even know about it.

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In the past few debates, the "Five Things to Watch" haven't changed that much. We all want to see how Rick Perry performs, whether Mitt Romney continues to deflect attacks, which one of the second-tier candidates shine or lands a blow, and so on--the usual stuff.

In tonight's debate, however, there is One Main Thing to Watch: the performance of Herman Cain.

If Cain continues to do well in these debates -- and avoids flip statements on things like electric border fences -- he's going to have a major impact on this race.

Already, Cain has shifted the dynamic in ways Rick Perry couldn't possibly have imagined when he announced he was running for president. Perry envisioned a two-man race against Romney, but so far he hasn't gotten the head-to-head matchup he wants.

Campaign insiders and strategists say privately that Cain has surprised them all by leaping over Perry in the polls. Cain, not Perry, is now neck-and-neck with Romney.

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TAMPA--Less than a week after Mitt Romney and Rick Perry squared off for the first time in a presidential debate, the two GOP frontrunners return to the stage here tonight in Florida for Round Two. As we said last week, Perry's comments on Social Security ("Ponzi scheme") and his refusal to back down have guaranteed it will be a major issue in the campaign--and certainly in this debate.

Here are five things to watch tonight:

1. Romney vs. Perry. In one corner is Mr. Establishment, your 1950s dad who's kind of boring and always wants to follow the rules. In the other is the Anti-Establishment hell-raiser, your 1970s uncle who likes a good brawl and doesn't bother with rulebooks. These two guys couldn't be more different--in tone, style and approach--and we saw that clearly last week, even in how they talked to each other. (Perry called Romney "Mitt," while Romney more politely called his nemesis "Governor.") After their clash at the Reagan Library on Social Security, though, Romney hasn't let up. In fact, just this afternoon, his campaign pointed out several of Perry's comments about the program and how it should be handled not by the federal government, but by the states. And the subject line? "Rick's Latest Retreat on Social Security."

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It's being billed as the first major Republican debate, with two front runners with very different styles going head-to-head -- and a third contender struggling to keep her footing. So when you're getting out the popcorn and heading for the couch to watch the Big Event, here are five things to be on the lookout for:

1. America, meet Rick Perry. It's already a cliché to say "all eyes will be on Perry tonight," but in this case (well in most cases) the cliché is true. As we like to say in Alabama, folks will be taking the measure of the man. This is his debut on a national stage. But don't expect a razzle-dazzle offense or heroics in the end zone, which we don't expect from Texas A&M, Perry's alma mater, anyway. All he needs to do is hang onto the ball and deliver a solid performance.

His advisers are saying they see this as a chance to introduce him to the nation, and they're planning to save the punches for subsequent debates. They're also are trying to lower expectations by insisting Perry doesn't enjoy debating, hasn't participated in many debates and that it's not a natural forum for him. That's a good political strategy, since short of a complete offensive and defensive breakdown, he will clear that low bar.

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For Republicans candidates seeking to unseat President Obama, there's one overriding issue: the economy. Polls have repeatedly shown that not only is the economy (and the corresponding issue of jobs) the number one concern for voters--but also that a majority of Americans disapprove of how the president is handling it.

And if they needed any encouragement, there's history to fall back on: No president has been reelected with unemployment numbers this bad since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the Great Depression.

So today's grim unemployment report--the economy added only 18,000 jobs in June--was like shooting fish in a barrel for Republicans, and they all fired away. Within minutes of the report's release, the GOP presidential contenders were using words like "failed" and "failure" to describe Mr. Obama's performance and his policies.

With one exception: Jon Huntsman.

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