Five takeaways from the new CBS/NYT poll

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama (Credit: AP Photo/Getty Images)
News Analysis

You probably know the headline by now: In the new CBS News/New York Times poll, President Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney are in a dead heat, with each man receiving support from 46 percent of registered voters.

But there's a lot more to the poll than just the headline. Below, five findings from the survey that provide important insights into the state of the race:

Romney has Republican support - but not their love: Republicans have united around Romney, with 54 percent now saying they support him as their nominee - up from 30 percent in March, when Rick Santorum was still in the race. But after a long and bruising primary campaign, their support is grudging at best.

Just 33 percent of GOP primary voters "enthusiastically support" Romney - less than the 40 percent who say they support him with reservations. And 18 percent say they're backing Romney only because he is the nominee. (Eight percent say they don't support Romney.) The numbers are particularly bad among white evangelicals: Just 27 percent enthusiastically support Romney, while 50 percent have reservations.

The good news for Romney is that he still has time to define himself favorably among registered voters overall. While just 13 percent say they are undecided or need to know more about Mr. Obama to decide if they have a favorable view of them, 37 percent are undecided or haven't heard enouth about Romney. Both candidates currently have underwater favorability ratings - Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent, while Romney is viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent - but Romney has more room to win people over. Of course, that also means the Obama campaign has room to define Romney negatively.

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Poll: Economic outlook dim, but improving

Chart - Condition of the Economy (Credit: CBS)
CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Americans are still largely down on the economy but have become slightly more optimistic, according to the latest CBS News/ New York Times poll.

And as President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney lay out their competing economic visions, most Americans are confident either candidate could handle the economy. Voters are skeptical, however, that either candidate would help their own personal financial situation.

As many as seven in 10 Americans say the economy is in bad shape, according to the poll, conducted April 13-17. Another 27 percent think the economy is at in at least somewhat good shape - a low figure, but the best it's been since 2008.

The unemployment rate stood at 8.2 percent in March, and now, one third of Americans think the economy is headed in the right direction. Another 28 percent think the economy is getting worse, while 38 percent think it is staying the same.

Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to view both the condition and the direction of the economy favorably. Fifty-four percent of Democrats think the economy is getting better, and 42 percent think its condition is at least somewhat good. Only 16 percent of Republicans think the economy is getting better, and just 5 percent call the economy good.

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Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat

Mitt Romney, President Obama (Credit: Getty Images)
CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Updated 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.

Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.

The poll was conducted between last Friday and Tuesday, days after former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum suspended his campaign, effectively making Romney the presumptive nominee to take on the president in the fall. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain in the race but face Romney's all-but-insurmountable lead in delegates and fundraising ahead of the Republican convention this summer in Tampa, Fla.

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Exit poll: Reservations about Romney dim in Wisc.

Wisconsin primary

Nicole Newberry (C) casts her vote with her children Colin (L) and Liam, at a polling place on April 3, 2012 in Pewaukee, Wisconsin. Voters in Wisconsin, Maryland, and Washington D.C. vote today in the Republican presidential primary.

(Credit: Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Updated at 6:06 p.m. ET

(CBS News) About six in 10 of Mitt Romney's supporters in Wisconsin say they strongly favor him, CBS News early exit polling out of the state shows. The results show more enthusiasm for the current GOP presidential front-runner than in other recent primary states.

While 58 percent "strongly favor" Romney, another 36 percent of his backers said they have reservations about him and another 6 percent said they voted for him because they dislike the other presidential candidates. In Illinois two weeks ago, where Romney won by a solid 12-point margin, just 42 percent of his supporters strongly favored him, but 47 percent had reservations. Fifty-five percent of Romney voters in Louisiana "strongly supported" Romney, but the former governor lost the state to Rick Santorum.

Among Santorum backers in Wisconsin, 43 percent of Santorum voters strongly favor him, but 37 percent have reservations about him. Another 19 percent dislike the other candidates.

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Poll: Support for Afghan war hits all-time low

(Credit: CBS News)

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Two weeks after an American soldier in Afghanistan allegedly went on a rampage killing 17 Afghan civilians, American confidence in the war is at an all-time low, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests.

According to the survey, conducted among 986 adults from March 21-25, just 23 percent of Americans believe the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting in Afghanistan. That percentage - the lowest ever recorded by CBS News and the New York Times in this survey - is down from 36 percent in November 2011. Sixty-nine percent of Americans said the U.S. should not be involved in Afghanistan, the highest percentage of respondents who have said so since CBS News/New York Times started asking that question in 2009.

Only one in four Americans believes the war is going well for the U.S., the poll indicates, down from 48 percent last November. This percentage comes close to the question's all-time low, at 23 percent in November 2009, shortly before President Obama announced his plan for a surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan.

In recent months, a string of controversies involving U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan may have cast negative light on the ongoing conflict there: On March 11, an American Staff Sgt., Robert Bales, is accused of leaving his base in Southern Afghanistan to kill 17 Afghan civilians in what is being charged as a premeditated attack. In February, meanwhile, five U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan were found to have inadvertently burned discarded copies of the Koran, which sparked days of protests there and resulted in several deaths of U.S. troops and others.

Poll: 1 in 4 want Supreme Court to uphold health care law
Poll: 47% disapprove of Obama health care law
Read the complete poll (PDF)

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Poll: 1 in 4 want high court to uphold health law

(Credit: CBS)

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

As the Supreme Court begins to hear arguments about the 2010 health care overhaul, just one in four say the high court should keep President Obama's signature legislative achievement intact, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll.

Thirty-eight percent say the entire law should be abolished, according the poll, conducted March 21-25. Another 29 percent would like the high court to strike down only the requirement that nearly all Americans obtain health insurance if they do not have it.

The court on Tuesday will hear arguments on whether the so-called individual mandate - which will require nearly all Americans to acquire insurance or pay a penalty -- is unconstitutional. The case tackles not only a hotly-debated legal matter, but also the most controversial aspect of Mr. Obama's health care law.

When asked directly about the mandate, which goes into effect in 2014, 51 percent of Americans said they disapprove of it, while 45 percent said they approve. Most Republicans and independents oppose the mandate, while Democrats support it.

Poll: Support for war in Afghanistan hits all-time low
Poll: 47% disapprove of Obama health care law
Read the complete poll (PDF)

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Poll: 47% disapprove of Obama health care law

(Credit: CBS/AP)

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

As the Supreme Court embarks on three days of historic arguments over President Obama's health care law - two years after the law was enacted - Americans remain skeptical about the legislation.

A CBS News/New York Times poll shows 47 percent of Americans disapprove of the president's Affordable Care Act, including 30 percent who strongly disapprove. In the poll, conducted March 21-25, only 36 percent of those questioned said they support the law either somewhat or strongly.

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Poll: Obama's approval rating sinks to new low

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

(CBS News) President Obama's approval rating has hit the lowest level ever in CBS News polling, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times survey. The drop may be partially attributable to rising gas prices.

Just 41 percent of Americans approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, according to the poll, conducted from March 7 to 11. Another 47 percent disapprove of his performance, up from 41 percent last month.

Mr. Obama's approval rating was 50 percent last month.

The average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline has jumped 12 cents over the past two weeks. The poll found that most Americans, 54 percent, believe gas prices are something a president can do a lot about.

Americans have historically felt that a president can control gas prices, though experts attribute changes to a variety of factors, many outside of a president's control. They also felt this way when gas prices spiked during the administration of former President George W. Bush.

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Poll: Most GOP voters expect Romney nomination

Mitt Romney

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters in Boston, March 6, 2012.

(Credit: Getty)

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Rick Santorum holding a very slight lead over Mitt Romney among Republican primary voters across the nation, but GOP voters increasingly expect Romney to eventually win the nomination.

In the survey conducted between March 7 and March 11, 34 percent of Republican primary voters said they support Santorum, compared to 30 percent for Romney. Santorum's lead falls within the poll's margin of error.

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Poll: Americans hurting from rising gas prices

(Credit: CBS News)

Amid a national spike in gas prices, two in three Americans say the hike in costs is causing them financial hardship at home, according to a CBS News poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted between February 24 and 27, surveyed more than a thousand adults nationwide as gas prices continued to climb to an average of $3.731 per gallon, according to AAA's Fuel Gauge Report. A month ago, the average cost was more than $0.30 cheaper, at $3.429 dollars a gallon.

Sixty-seven percent of Americans say high gas prices have caused a financial hardship in their households; of those, 38 percent say that hardship is serious. Thirty-two percent of Americans say they had not suffered financial hardship to do the rising costs of gas.

Americans with lower household incomes are especially likely to feel pain at the pump. Forty-nine percent of those earning less than $50,000 say hikes in gas prices have caused them serious financial hardship; among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000, only 29 percent say the same thing. That number falls even further to 22 percent among those with incomes of $100,000 and higher.

At 37 percent, Republicans were more likely to say that they had experienced serious hardship due to the rising prices than were Democrats (28 percent), although 32 percent of people in both parties said the price hikes had caused them difficulties of some nature.

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