January 12th, 2012
03:37 AM GMT
 (CNN) – The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years. The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S. But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators: * Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26th place – ahead of Iran, Colombia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37th), Turkey (up six spots to 12th), Malaysia (up 17 to 21st) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45th). * Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4th largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3rd on the list. * The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56th ( -29), Norway to 48th ( -22), Sweden to 38th (-20) and Finland to 57th (-19). HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010) 1) China (+2) 2) U.S. (-1) 3) India (+5) 4) Japan (-2) 5) Germany (-1) 6) UK (-1) 7) Brazil (+2) 8) Mexico (+5) 9) France (-3) 10) Canada (same) 11) Italy (-4) 12) Turkey (+6) 13) S. Korea (-2) 14) Spain (-2) 15) Russia (+2) 16) Philippines (+27) 17) Indonesia (+4) 18) Australia (-2) 19) Argentina (2) 20) Egypt (+15) 21) Malaysia (+17) 22) Saudi Arabia (+1) 23) Thailand (+6) 24) Netherlands (-9) 25) Poland (-1) 26) Peru (+20) 27) Iran (+7) 28) Colombia (+12) 29) Switzerland (-9) 30) Pakistan (+14) “If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive,” the report says. In other words, demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law (a caveat that explains China and Saudi Arabia’s high placement). “We openly admit that behind these projections we assume governments build on their recent progress and remain solely focused on increasing the living standards for their populations,” the report says. “Of course, this maybe an overly glossy way of viewing the world.” Chief factors that may derail economies moving forward, the report says: War, energy consumption constraints, climate change, and growing barriers to population movement across borders. |
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Night Becomes Day http://t.co/lVToJgBl 1:28 pm UTC, January 14 2012
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Just arrived in #hongkong for filming #futurecities. Always love coming to asia so vribrant even w/ economic woes 8:34 am UTC, January 14 2012
There are no easy answers and tonight thinks just got a bit more difficult. Ultimately the test is whether EU leaders are upto the task 8:46 pm UTC, January 13 2012
Much more worrying is failure of banks to ahgree deal with #greece. If they don't agree then bailout 2 is at risk and we are back to sq 1. 8:45 pm UTC, January 13 2012
updated 236 GMT, Jan 15
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Yeh looks about right!!!
Are the bankers now saying that they can see 40 years away? I would like them to predict what is in store tomorrow on a more consistent basis before they go the Nostradamus way
Because #itsmorefuninthephilippines! The people here are so resilient and skilled despite the many problems our nation faces. What is more, we have a lot of beautiful places that the world has yet to discover. I'm so excited that our country is finally getting the limelight that it deserves!
Colombia (the country) is spelled ColOmbia.
Looks like the best time to invest in the Philippines is now, while their economy is still small. Just look at how much they will leap frog, 27 places up! Insane!
Aren't these guys from the same flock that couldn't differentiate the good borrowers from the pathetic ones 3 years ahead based on readily available credit history info that led to the bust ? They are now predicting the world economy 40 years ahead - awesome. Let me move my long-term stocks to China now
If the US is as high as second place that means Obama did not get re-elected.
This projection sounds nice but does it include the oncoming fiscal crisis in China or the water shortages for China and India?
Most likely by 2050 the USA would be split in separated countries by then, the list will be a lot different thats for sure..
Oh, so HSBC expects that America will fix its horrendous public school system by 2050?
I don't. In fact, after all of the "rebel" Islamic countries have been conquered, the "powers that be" will have no need for America's main "export"–uneducated beasts who humiliate, terrorize, and kill innocent civilians.
On my list, put America down for #11 by 2050. Thanks.
Woot Woot! Philippines +27!!! There is so much in store for this country of 96Million people and with vast natural resources! Hope i'll still be alive to witness the glory of the Philippines in 2050!
Try to predict something like this 38 years in the future in nonsense.
Hahaha!
in 2050 Philippines has a population of 153 million, almost 2 times from now,
and Russian population is going down from 146 million to 118 million, but still tops Philippines.
How proud do you the Filipino think you are?
Who cares, I'll be dead.
I thought india will be the top economy of 2050
go team philippines 3 stars in a sun
The Philippines will be the biggest economy in Southeast Asia and the 5th biggest in Asia by 2050. Go Philippines!! Keep moving forward.... :)
As much this prediction is in favor of my country, how and what were the basis for it? Besides, at the rate our government is going, I doubt there'll be any big changes happening.
Where is Palestine? Hahahaha
This is the text book definition of "delusoin of grandeur" to even think the US would be No.2 in 38 years plus now. I truly believe the US will cease to be an economic giant, that it has been all along for most part of the last century.
China will have imploded and be broken up into several countries.
This is risible ! Brazil has already taken over the UK and is presently the 6th, while in this chart it will become the 6th by going up to places !!! Guessing without fundamental knowledge. Brazil will soon overtake Germany as well so by 2050 it will be the 5th or higher
Wait a minute! Where is Singapore?!
The VERY big assumption is that the World as we know it will exist until then ! I doubt if these projections are worth the paper or pixels they're using.
& then i saw pakistan...dont trust this list anymore!
Wow, Mexico has a bigger economy than Russia?
bkr123 but you believe the same study putting China at #1 don't you? You silly little catfish.
Chill out to those who react so negatively...there's a reason it's called "predictions"
Go Philippines!
Yanalce: We can go to our palmists or astrologers for such "predictions"
Of course Mexico is higher than Russia, being a major exporter of coke and pot to the US.
This is incredible news for the Philippines. Leaping 27 places up in the next 48 years or so would create an enormous game change. Big assumption, yes it is.
The NOW looks very good for our beloved country Philippines...40 Years hence is a long way to go...but if the trend continuous...we can be where HSBC predicts us to be...hope the speed gets even faster....
Of course Philippines will be higher, it has taken a looooong time to climb out of a $45 billion hole that Marcos left but they are getting there and then some! Outside of a few scalawags that all countries have but Philippines takes an unfair share of grief for; this is a beautiful country full of beautiful people!
Thats if the word does not end in Dec 2012 !
The geo political scenario will be quite different 50 years from now. When Americans realize that their economic downfall is inevitable they will not accept to go down quietly. They will instigate trouble in and around China to create a market for their weapons which will be their only hope. They will also devalue the dollar to such an extent that Chinese will be left holding onto worthless pieces of paper. This will most likely end up in World War 3 with allies like USA, UK, Australia, India and Philippines taking on the might of China, N. Korea and the Islamic world. Countries like Russia, France and Germany will prefer to remain neutral and will end up eventual winners. After WW3 half this planet will be inhabitable due to nuclear radiation but fortunately the population of the world also would have reduced to 1/3rd its size because war never decides who is right instead it decides who is left.
Where is Kenya in all this? With our 2030 vision we should be in the top 30 sooner than 2050...
I believe predictions for Islam dominated countries are suspect because of the drag down effect if there is a relapse to fundamentalism, though right now Indonesia and Malaysia look promising but not Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran is likely to regain it's old glory though and as for Pakistan it all depends if the intelligent moderate majority can exercise control over the military power heads and the religious fundamentalist.
Mongolia isn't included in the list.
Uhm, where's Singapore?
This article is an inspiration and an affirmation that yes, there is hope for our economy. It doesn't matter whether this will turn out to be accurate or not. This is a good wake up call to us Filipinos to believe that we can compete with the world (because we really can if we work harder and be more confident about ourselves). I want to be part of the solution to bring the PH to a higher spot (whatever number that is). My dream is to become an economic adviser for the Philippine government. This article inspired me to believe and try some more because economic prosperity in the Philippines is possible and highly probable. :')
Why is Singapore not on the list?
Philippines at +27, WOW!
I hope so...
True or not... what ever Philippines end up...we will still have reasons to be proud of being Filipinos..
I agree to Jack. These guys should predict the nearer future rather than some 40+ years away, it would be more helpful.
Restating Jack's post:
"Are the bankers now saying that they can see 40 years away? I would like them to predict what is in store tomorrow on a more consistent basis before they go the Nostradamus way"
these 'predictions' are based on what exactly?
To Bah Kuh Teh and Jozo, Singapore too small lah.
where is qatar?
Can you guys just stop probing why your favorites didn't make it. Singapore, Qatar, Mongolia etc etc. Train up for try outs next year.
Can someone explain to me why the Nordic countries are gonna fail? They're currently among the greenest and most advanced in Europe. There is no reason for them to fail at all.
How Philippines achieved to make No.16
* 1 PhP= 1US$
* OFWs will become 4 times by 2050, with precent yearly income of $20B to $80B or average of $60B annually, the economy becomes $2.4T.
* Exports doubled to $80B annually. (Approx. $ 3.2T)
* Half of the world's call centers will be in the Philippines.
* No.1 in Zero-corruption.
* Return of ill-gotten wealth of Marcos, Cory's cronies, Ramos, Arroyos' – (Approx. $ 1T)
* No man-made and natural calamities and disasters.
* No foreign debts.
* No war with China.
by that time.. the world is almost destroyed... dont be surprise if thats happen.. people think how to grow the economy.. but they forgotten something, to care the mother earth,, our only planet..
27 places? Really? What is the basis for your prediction on the Philippines?
The list is based on GDP as whole and not GDP per capita.
Singapore, Qatar, Nordic countries would still be rich or even richer but GDP as a whole is still smaller compared to other countries with big populations.
As mentioned:
"demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law"
Maybe by 2050,
1. Singapore is already invaded by India.
2. Singapore is already invaded by Philippines.
3. Singapore's money all went to President's salary and MRT repaiworksr hehe.
What about African countries,it seems as if you are still neglecting it.one way all the other you must know were the rawmaterial come from.
While I understand that the world is looking for answers, we can all admit that financially the last 3 years have not been like a storm water drain in terms of the growth of the world’s economics. To put so emphases on the future is also dangerous. I believe that we should look at the past 50 years and grow from now…grow and move forward TODAY.
Phillipines at 16th, why not ? because by then practically all able-bodied Filipinos adults will be working oversea, sending home tons of money every year ! ....But working oversea in what capacity ?.this needs another prediction from the smart aleck at HSBC, LOL
Interesting, not a single african country and no Australia either ?
What about a war and its ramifications? Winners and those who support them will be in the lead.
And those who r losers ......they will be nowhere in the prosperity belt.
30 years without a war is a near impossibility.
I feel like such a cynic, but really, Philippines?
Singapore will be under water by 2050. No need to count them. Or maybe back as part of Malaysia again.
By 2050, the world as you new it no longer exist. There would only be 1 World Goverment, there would be no China, US, India & etc. There would not be enough FOOD for those country which have doubled their population....not enogh fuel, gas & etc. In 2008, there is food riot...some country panicly purchase grain/rice.
What were the criteria used by HSBC for determining "world's top economies"?? Is it just the size of the GDP (PPP or current X-rates?) or a broader set of factors? Strange that it is not mentioned in the Article – without this information this is no more than a story intended for boulevard press
I can not see how UK will remain in the top. By then, the financial system will probably be gone from London. There is no much production going on and the school system is in bad shape. 40 years from now... many things could happen.
Now, I don't care too much what economy is larger, but I care about how countries share their wealth, quality of life... I think that may not improve that much in many countries if they want to keep high production with low pay...
D
Most cynic about the PHL are the Filipinos themselves. Too good to be true ya?
Beiing very humble about it, as we Indians always are, I think we are already in the third spot as of today. Should we be able to handle our corruption and our population, we may, in all likelyhood, be on par with China by 2025.
well..im a filipino but i dont rely on what have writen on top but one thing for sure keep our feet on the ground and be a hard worker and surely my country "Philippines" will be progressive.
If technology is key to the future, then where is that burgeoning technological juggernaut Israel ?? This list is dubious at best for a whole host of reasons !
why not if we do our part we can really do it faster as they even predicted..
whoever came up with this list must be a Filipino
For long term investors, now is the time to seriously consider the Philippines!
Again:
The list is based on GDP as whole and not GDP per capita.
Singapore, Qatar, Nordic countries would still be rich or even richer but GDP as a whole is still smaller compared to other countries with big populations.
As mentioned:
"demographics – the size of your working population – along with the opportunities to flex that muscle help determine long-term economic trends. Big factors on the back half of that equation: Education opportunities, democratic governments or strong rule of law"
Lots of world economists and experts only can read English, this reason misleads some estimates.
In reality, per year millions of good articles are produced in Chinese, Russian and other Asian languages.
India, the UK, Australia and the Philippines use English as their commercial language; but they are not so strong, they will not be on such front position.
HSBC predicted gross GDP, not GDP per capita. For example: if the Philippines' GDP is at $150B but the population is 150 million, GDP per capita is $1000. Compare that to a country that has $15B gross GDP with a one million strong population, and it has $15000 GDP per capita. They can still live more comfortably and have better purchasing power than us.
Dear CNN, don't you have real and more valuable stories than that nonsense to publish? It would be for travel, entertainmanet instead of providing this kind of worthless projections, so the readers will not waste their time to read nonsenses of HSBC.It's not interesting at all to read this kind of garbage
My beloved Philippines' performance jump off to 27 place is kind of impossible with current situation in my country and unstable political situation. Our current ASEAN neighbors are way better plus our population that time will go boom.
Though there is an advantage to that, if Filipinos will stop going abroad (OFW), and also our gov't will allow foreign investor to own a property then probably it will be the next China, where manufacturing of goods is being done here.
The other side is that, by that time manufacturing is 95% done by automation, by then we lose agian. We have more unemployed population compared to countries where mineral export is the primary source of economy.
Correct me if I am wrong
Too bad, I'll be dead by the time I witness and experience the rise of the Philippines! Kill all the greedy politicians now and we may be awarded an extra +10 leap!
Don't be so enviuos to the data they gathered...they had the basis in gathering those information based on the predicted GDP of the country..why not take the challence if your country fall short down the list then prove by doing your best as individual and to those who was assumed to be on that position then strive harder..let's take it as a challence
@Patrick, if you can't say anything nice to your country. then dont bother saying anything at all. Bawal ang crab mentality, umaayos na nga ang bansa eepal ka pa ng talangkang comment. Just be proud and help your country progress! You can start by being optimistic man
your kababayan
Despite everyone's doubt (myself included) that the metrics used for this isn't in per capita values, I just can't believe HSBC would commit such mistake. Every economic research should be done using per capita values. You're not really an economist if you believe that your research would make sense using the ordinary GDP value. Economies are essentially ranked in mainstream macroeconomics through the cost of living and purchasing power which is incorporated in PPP.
If it's too good to be true then it is.Predictions are just that and outcomes in later years will reveal if this foretelling of world's future economies are precise,close enough or have entirely missed the target.but yeah,for the people from countries in this list which will leapfrog to a better rank,it is bit like a light at the end of the tunnel.
i expect Brazil to do better and i wouldn't be surprised to see the USA fall to 3rd
I will print this list and fix it on my cupboard. Will have a look at it again on 1st Jan 2050
Sorry Filipinos, this is JUST A PREDICTION and, like the prediction of weather two weeks out, impossible to put any ounce of faith in. But, typically filipino (which isn't bad, just a fact), boastful and proud to a huge fault as when things do not go their way of their talk, they lapse into the arena of diminishing confidence until another crazy prediction gives them reason for hope. Bottom line, Philippines, get your act together and believe in yourselves as a nation of people and not the one or two icons or the talk that everybody seems to rely on for its confidence. Manny Pacquiao and Charice does not mean all filipinos are the best boxers and singers on the planet. BTW pass that RH bill or a population of 200M will literally sink the islands back under the ocean.
@Nate, so does optimism mean believing in this impossible list? Face reality and do the things necessary to make their spot on the list a reality (given in 2050 the world will still be as we understand them today). Simply believing in this list won't cut it. And when Pnoy understands that just having a country 'believe' in him without taking the necessary steps won't cut it, maybe their place on the list will be a bit more secure.
@LJL
I agree with you – optimism for Filipinos is expecting good things to come to us, no matter what. This leads to complacency and worse – laziness, since we all believe that things will get better soon enough even if we don't exert any effort.
Okay how the hell Russia will be on 15th place when it's already on 6th? Looks like patriotic American propaganda to me... USA won't even reach top 5 place in 2050. USA has at the moment NO money at all. And they will pay their debts. What will slow down economic growth... The only thing USA can do is build factories in OWN country and give jobs to own people. Technology will be cheap enough soon to get oil from the deepest places...
Well, then it's a scoop!
I really believe that the Philippines will rise to the occasion! It has so much potential and resources! I'm sure this will happen in time :D
Quite a jump for the Philippines, I say. Currently it looks like it won't happen but I believe that if its people does the right thing It would be achievable, especially if those living outside of the country would go back and contribute their expertise towards nation building.
The predictions are influenced by the assumption that the economy will continue on the same path, which I hope will not be the case. The main driver of this execise is the growth of the population and the expansion of the markets but does not take into consideration: 1 shortages of raw materials / energy and water / regional conflicts / rule of law / quality of life / education. Remember my words: It's not the growth of the economy that we should worry about, but the quality of life. Economic growth based on population increase / consumption will not generate true quality of life, will just make some people rich and some other dirt poor. Also, if EU survives, which by the way will mean no more wars in Europe, EU economy will be in top 3 (despite the fact that national economies of member states will not longer be in the top). Now think about where would you want to live, in EU in number 3, or China in number 1 ???!!!
Wishful thinking. US will be much further down on that list.
READ –>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven
Finally some real economic sense. When I tell my "Kamag-anak" Philippines will be as wealthy as S. Korea is now in 40yrs, they would laugh at me.
Here are the projections in the year 2000, the Philippines GDP was around $81.00B.
At the end of 2010, the GDP is about $200.00B.
140% Growth in a decade. If you keep doubling the number every decade (Note: this is a conservative estimate).
2010 – 2020 – $400.00B
2020-2030 – $800.00B
2030-2040 – $1.6Trillion
204-2050 – $3.2Trillion
The power of compounding!
Of course these are projections. There will be recessions here and there. What will be the other countries like in 2050 is another question.
Follow me on twitter @pseinsider
No way, Santa Banana..hey but it's so FUN..ya...my dear country the Philippines soon to be one of the top economies by 2050? How could it be when by that time there would be another perhaps 30-50 miliion more Pinoys added to the population.How could the country sustain the needs of the people by that time now the country could not even feed her own and provide the basic needs of the almost hundred million people.Considering the present leader kuno of the republic is an idiot, mongoloid and clueless president who only listens to her yellow mob and bootlickers.My country is now at the bottom of the pits stinkier than the Pasig River where the ABNOY is residing.But the SAD truth is...Philippines will be overtaken by ZIMBABWE....CONGO,,OR even CAMBODIA.
Cool! Go Philippines!!! Let us Loathe Crab Mentality^^
People around the world worry too much on physical things. There's nothing wrong because money is a necessity for anyone. But even if you live in the best country in the world and become one of the riches people on planet Earth, it is just temporary. All men will eventually die and no can escape it. This world will be destroyed eventually and that's where it's heading. Even if this world last for Billion years, the sun in the solar system will not always give light because it will eventually exploded which the scientists have studied already. So instead of trying to work for the physical things which won't last, how about focusing on entering Kingdom of Heaven? Will we really give up on getting eternal life in Kingdom of Heaven where we will live happily forever and ever with joy everyday traveling this endless galaxy as Heavenly Brothers and Sisters seeing and getting much greater things God has prepared for us with having to live a 100 years in this Earth with problems, worries and only short time happiness? Heavenly Father and Mother is seeking Their children to come back to Their true Home, Kingdom of Heaven. God bless you all :).
http://english.watv.org/
Why do so many people feel the need to say that the US will be even lower than that?
So dumb.
Just because you want it to be true, that doesn't mean it will be true.
When the initial economic crash hit, everyone said "Yay! The American Empire is crumbling!" But then their own economies crashed and they couldn't understand why. Well, it was because the US is the giant in bed with you. As long as you are buying from and selling to the US – or buying from and selling to countries that trade with the US – any crash that the US takes will affect you as well.
Do you think the world's other top economies can keep growing with the US taking a nosedive? If you do, you're way less intelligent than you think you are. Enough with the wishful thinking.
HK will be world no 200, since without British, Hk should be a poor village.
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo targeted 2020 to make the Philippines a First World country. Extremely ambitious, but there;s no denying that after Ramos and Philippines 2000, there sure could be ways to make it work
the world will end this year. why bother?
what a load of usual CNN rubbish
Strange, I would have bet Vietnam would be on the list!?
@Voice of Reason: Because USA use twice that much they make... USA is worthless for economy. They problem is dollar. In the next few year countries will get rid of dollar... China, Russia already build homes, skyscrapers etc... using foreign companies and pay them with dollars. They want GOLD not peace of PAPER and worthless promises that USA makes... That's the reason USA won't even make top 5 in 2050...
You think a miracle can never take an African nation to leap to the top 20? I believe in miracles. God has a way of helping the helpless. The situation in black Africa is really bad, but there is still possibility of a lifting from God.
if we kill all the politicians now then unite, we will be enjoying this in 10 yrs...with all the natural resources and the skills of filipinos, this is not just a prediction but is only waiting to happen...go go philippines
your so full of rubbish you can't even predict the next interest rate hike or what socks you will wear , rubbish article
@Dark Angel Not everyone believe in god. (I don't) The chance that there are aliens is a lot higher then there is a god ...
But i don't say there isn't something.... Is there is something it's not a god or have something to do with religion the people have... Look at history. Religion was invented to control society....Burn woman, Crusades, using brainwashed Knights Templar then kill them.... In 2050 Europe will exist of 80 percent atheists (if everything goes right) or 80 percent Muslims ( if everything goes wrong....)
By the 3rd millineum we wont be needing gas for our rides but energy channels for gravity defying cars. Cool! Of course we wont be around by then.
Hope so this report absolutely right but most of time research does not give this right future report, and so I think this report will same most of time but also will change when you will get 2050. May be we found new few Country which will place top 10 to 15 position.
Maybe the world will die long before that given the way we all mess it up.
The european nations will be just the European Union (state) and will be ranked first or second!
err....from the HSBC website, its not the Philippines, but Indonesia in the 16th place (see http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html)
The Philippines is not on the list! I wonder if its CNN's error, or HSBC released a revised version http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html
one thing is for sure PH will rise.
you know why?
we are Confident and boastful?
because JESUS CHRIST aka "GOD" is on our side ^_^
Whats the basis, economic indicators? Guts feel? Sounds funny and unrealistic!
i think this is a reasonable prediction because currently, the philippines is a younger country compared to some of the countries topping the list. say let's think of the countries to be like persons– U.S. and China are already 40 years old, having good jobs, great career and earning. on the other hand, the phils right now are probably still on it's mid 20's, just about to start up a career. it can somehow manage to get there..
I am IronMan and I will saved the world!! LOL
There is an error in this article...I looked at the original report from HSBC http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html and Philippines is not even mentioned in the Top 30 rank.
Philippines 16th by 2050: Let's not talk about the words. Let'd do the action. Actions speak louder than words.
The prediction for the Philippines is very possible. As of now the country has one of the best economic fundamentals in the world. It has a strong banking sector, awash w/ foreign reserves from hardworking Filipino OFWs and is getting the nod from rating agencies and foreign investors. Plus, as the article mentioned, the population of the Philippines will be the key. With a population that is getting bigger strong domestic consumption will be sustained. This big population will also continue to be blessed w/ a high literacy rate and strong skills set that will further boost productivity and income. Bottomline, this country is getting stronger economically year after year.
It is COLOMBIA, not Columbia.
I'm sure magkakatotoo yung prediction for the Philippines. I'm sure rin mangyayari yun dahil mawawala lahat ng mga talangka sa Pinas, matatangay ng tsunami! :)
@wiki
That's your belief and you made your choice. But if realize the truth and choose to repent and follow God's will, God will welcome you. Apostle Paul is a great gospel worker who persecuted the Church of God before he became God's people. Time is running out as this world will be destroyed soon according to the prophecies of the Bible. Receive the Passover of the New Covenant, the Seal of God. Heavenly Father and Mother is waiting for Their children to repent and come back into Their loving arms and return to Kingdom of Heaven. God bless you :).
"1 After this I saw four angels standing at the four corners of the earth, holding back the four winds of the earth to prevent any wind from blowing on the land or on the sea or on any tree. 2 Then I saw another angel coming up from the east, having the seal of the living God. He called out in a loud voice to the four angels who had been given power to harm the land and the sea: 3 “Do not harm the land or the sea or the trees until we put a seal on the foreheads of the servants of our God.” (Revelation 7:1-3 NIV)
"7 By the same word the present heavens and earth are reserved for fire, being kept for the day of judgment and destruction of the ungodly. 8 But do not forget this one thing, dear friends: With the Lord a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day. 9 The Lord is not slow in keeping his promise, as some understand slowness. Instead he is patient with you, not wanting anyone to perish, but everyone to come to repentance. 10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything done in it will be laid bare. 11 Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives 12 as you look forward to the day of God and speed its coming. That day will bring about the destruction of the heavens by fire, and the elements will melt in the heat. 13 But in keeping with his promise we are looking forward to a new heaven and a new earth, where righteousness dwells." (2 Peter 3:7-13 NIV)
http://english.watv.org/
http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article6288389.ece
In the 2050, will NK still exist?
If so I'd like to know ranking of NK.
Is it rated by where HSBC are currently?, what a list Only Egypt the African country not even S.A,Nigeria or Ghana.Trash
Colombia and Columbia are two different things! Please correct this it is a shame people dont know the difference
@Dark Angel
Lets say we both don't know truth...
Why botcher and waste time and A LOT of MONEY on church?
If I will burn in hell because I don't believe in God (what bible says?)... Well then he's not better then the devil...
Bible is only a book written many many years ago... People in that time believed everything. Same for Koran...
I don't think so. Prediction goes far beyond the horizons.
@Analyst
Please read the date on your link it says "04 Jan 2011" guess what? it is already 2012!
I have also checked the original report from hsbc, however if you will study it carefully and compare it to this version, it's clear that hsbc revised it already since not only Philippines leaped 27 spots but some countries were gone from the list while other ones entered.
@TheAnalyst, of course the Philippines wouldn't be in that top 30 because during that time the Philippines was ranked 43 (16 + 27). I guess they revised the list because numerous events have occurred that led to some unexpected increase and decrase in the rankings of some countries.
I was shocked to see Pakistan in listing.
The truth is the worlds #1 economy wil be the world. By then it will be a one world gevernment and really the apocolypse will have already happened and sorry to say, there probably won't be a government anymore.
Anyway 7years ago they predicted something different(did they predict the ongoing UERO crisis?).
We can do it Philippines! :D
It is impossible to accurately predict what will happen 10 years from now, let alone 38 years from now (in 2050). So this basically just amounts to rampant speculation based on current trends and how we can see those trends progressing in the next 5-10 years. Nobody really knows what the world will be like 38 years from now. 38 years ago, who could have predicted the Internet and the massive global changes it has ushered in? What if an immortality drug or an anti-aging drug is released in the next 10-15 years that allows rich people to live to 200 years and continue working until they're 150? Then rich Western countries will become much more economically powerful again.
Hi Justin,
Nordic countires will go down economically because their working populations will go down because of the low birth rates. At the same time, the aging population will rise which will be a huge burden for the economies as they go into retirement. You will have a dwindling working population burdened by heavy taxes needed to support old people who will no longer be productive, as well as an infrastructure system designed to support the larger population of earlier years. At the same time, advancing technologies in other nations means that many of their high value export products will not be as dominant as before. Hey, they can make Volvo cars and Nokia phones in China. Extending the retirement will not solve this problem. It's going to be a big catastrophy for their social security system.
These Ranking is rubbish.... so no African Country will succeed. Idiots and fools.
@Andy
Internet was already predicted by Nikola Tesla more than a century ago! (1909)
I think Pakistan will be ever better. We have bad people governing us. hopefully this will change this year with imran khan winning elections. So Pakistan will be up there with India.
I really believe in this prediction because i witness this growth. As electrical engr in one of vital ecozone of philippines a saw the growth of energy consumption on 8 years of my service in our electrical company. So please i ask to my fellow filipino do our share on this promising projection do our best what ever our profession no matter what our job from garbage collector to president of the nation lets do our best ( MALASAKIT ) thats the word we keep. this will not only for our self and pride of the country but for our children and grand children GOD BLESS US.......
I have always believed in what the ordinary Filipino can do to change the superpowers of world economies!
To my beloved Philippines, when you feel you're way down at the bottom, the only way to go is – up!
what happened to nostradamus?
Stop predicting guys, have you forgotten, this world that we know will cease to exist in December 2012. I saw it in theaters and I have strong faith to Hollywood and no faith to HSBC. So stop this nonsense... hehehe
the report is a PREDICTION. China being at the top is easy to comprehend. the smaller nations that leap frog bigger the bigger ones seem to be just a guess. if the prediction is based on population, then so much has to be done for that population to become productive. one requirement is the level of education and creativity the working age population of that country has by 2050. these are not reflected in this PREDICTION by HSBC.
HA! This forecast is based on current economic performance, Within the 39 years from now to 2050, There sure will be a cataclysmic event that will change the Asia-Pacific region.
The US will definitely try to preserve the status quo at all cost with whatever means necessary. A new cold war is coming to the Asia-Pacific region and the Philippines is smack in the middle of it.I doubt the Philippines can maintain its heading with all the uncertainty in the region(a possibility of a proxy war is very likely).
Make no mistake, just last year, the Chinese president told the Chinese navy to prepare for war. that was in response to the Philippine government's refusal to concede to the Chinese government in matters of the South China Sea and the reconfirmation of the 60 year old Mutual Defense Treaty (U.S.–Philippines) that was held on an American warship in Philippine waters.
As China tries to assert itself as a new world power, we can be sure that the US will meet its potential rival head on. A lot of things can happen in 39 years such as WW3!
Good luck to the other countries
I hope that your region is not in a hot spot.
the philippines will have the work force and the natural resources and geothermal energy to do it!
wow amazing we can predict the economic forecast for the next 39 years but we couldn't predict any of the economic bubbles in 2000's -_-
Hope Im still alive at that time :)
"Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26th place – ahead of Iran, Columbia and Switzerland."
Colombia, the country, is not spelled with a "u"
The Philippines was then one of the richest countries in Asia, but due to political instability and adoption of inconsistent economic policies, it took a turn to being one of the poorest. The Philippines, despite its relatively small land area, has the world's 12th largest population. This leads to many social problems such as poverty, unemployment, and crime. However, the Philippines is now growing fast and needs are being fulfilled. It performed well compared to other Asian countries and is now considered as a newly industrialized country. It had shown its economic stability in facing financial crises.[27] According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippine economy will become the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050.[28][29]
The Philippines in 2050[15] Philippines The Philippines
GDP in USD $3.010 trillion
GDP per capita $20,388
GDP growth (2015–2050) 5.2%
Total population 148 million
Actually, the Philippines has so much potential, and the country could have already been a top-middle income country. With all of the progress Filipinos would want, it is actually the government that hinders it. But anyway, quite tired to argue about how inefficient, stupid and corrupt our government officials are.
One more thing, we should also look at the economic output per capita. I am already happy to know that we're gonna topple Indonesia, which has significantly higher population than the Philippines. I just hope our priests would listen.
i doubt if any of us will be alive then
i'll start taking madarin lessons
By the way,projecting into the future is not so easy,especially in this area
anyway,lets see what happens
Ok, so now we know what's not going to happen.
.
Absurd, ridiculous. HSBC can't tell AAA from junk and now they can see 40 years in the future?!!!! I predict that 40 years in the future HSBC will have gone bankrupt for at least a decade.
I'm sure the Philippines will become a great nation as it was before. :) One of the richest and blessed country. But we Filipinos should not be complacent but rather believe on ourselves and do something to achieve that goal. :)
why would australia economy shrink i don't get it
That's one amazing crystal ball you have there.
is this a joke?....
where HSBC get their data?
according to IMF, WB and CIA World fact book currently in 2011 Indonesia is the 17th biggest economy in the world, and Indonesia is a member of G20, is they projected that Indonesia will stagnant without growth?... in 2011 Indonesia's GDP growth was 6.5% please don't make me laugh....
it looks like negative comments against our Beloved Philippines are those who cant accept that in the future they will be overtaken by the Philippines!. One good reason why some Middle Eastern countries did not make it top lists is because Oil is not lifetime sources of income,..its not infinite! With 5% GDP every year,..well we are on tract to be top 16 or more! Filipinos be proud! because once again We will claimed top Spot in Asia and Leader in World economy, just like in early 1950-1960's where in we are Top 2 in Asia !
The country is Colombia, not Columbia.
no one ones what will happen in 40 years. or even 1 year. Russia is already number 9 as of 2011 (big jump from 2011) for example. These things happen very quickly.
Where is Singapore?
OMG! i LOVE Philippines! Wooohoooo!
I love the Philippines! By that time i will be 64 years old! I will retire by then! I will mke sure that i will be owning my own Crane company by that time!
Y'all have once again made the classic mistake of assuming that the current trend can and will continue forever. It can't. China can not continue to "expand" based on offshored labor from the United States. The US can not continue to be wealthy and pay for Chinese-made stuff, as long as it continues to offshore its labor. Temporary workers can not continue to make a killing the United States, and then bring our money back home with them. Us employers can not continue to pay employees a living wage in America if their customers in America don't have high-paying jobs (because wages have been decimated by offshoring and excessive, temporary immigration).
Bottom line: The American people will enact tariffs against China and all the other oppressive governments in the world. Free people will continue to live better than communists.
Mabuhay Philippines! : Champ & Beauty
What about South Africa?
@Jack: At the root of these predictions are some fairly sound economic theory. Of course they can't predict what is going to happen in the world. But when it comes to the economy, certain assumptions are made in order to forceast the future from an economic stand point. It can't predict, for example, a hypothetical astroid that strikes the earth. But using basic growth rates and time tested equations it can forsee (to a certain degree) the direction countries are heading.
If the US is #2 in 40 years, that means all the republitards are all gone 6ft under!
Yeah right, Philippines! The current government doesn't even know how to handle the recent crisis the country's continuing to face. With it's backward culture and christianity slaved people I doubt that's gonna happen
It's Colombia, not Columbia. It's a shame this is even on CNN. Such ignorance.
Pakistan at 30........hahaha!!!!! Unless US keeps on giving money to beggers.
"John
Looks like the best time to invest in the Philippines is now, while their economy is still small. Just look at how much they will leap frog, 27 places up! Insane!
January 12, 2012 at 4:26 am | " –> Indeed True!
Whether I'm still alive or not by the year 2050, would love to see that change and our future generation will at least be in a more comfortable place. :) GO PHILIPPINES!
Poor Poor Poor editing. Your 7th grade english teacher would have a heart attack!
wow – there are some brainwashed people chatting on this board! Nobody knows what will happen in 40 years... I suspect we are heading toward some serious trouble before then based on what everyone is writing on here – people who blindlly follow ARE the biggest issue facing all of us. All the hate for the US? I suspect you are basing it on things you think you know but guess what – there are likely many things you don't know that would change your mind. At some point the false leaders will lead all the sheep over the cliff and then we will see our population drop by billions. Too bad the fate of man is linked to his ignorance.
I don't think they (global research department of HSBC) did a good estimate of every country's economy after 40 years now. They don't even know all who run the countries by then. Philippines would never be at 16th nor higher, especially if it's still governed by selfish people.
Whoever made this prediction is really uneducated. How can Russia be in the 15th spot? Russia's economy is growing rapidly. Its 6th largest economy in the world TODAY. By 2020 it will be in the top 5 economies of the world being #1 powerhouse in Europe. You can't just compare Russia's economy next to Philippines, that's just absurd!
Well...seems that finally Colombians have become self aware and instead of cleaning toilets in the U.S. have realized that we have a tremendously rich country, and that the people is our best asset.Now we only have to establish though visa regulations so we don't get invaded by Muslins, oportunistic Americans and desperate Europeans.Besides, we can have our final revenge by treating them in the airports as criminals as they do with us even if we have nothing to do with drug dealers.
“If we step away from the cyclicality, there are two ways economies can grow; either add more people to the production line via growth in the working population, or make each individual more productive,” the report says
Or through automation. Can you imagine how many robots will be on the assembly lines by 2050. Population will be a secondary consideration.
It sounds pretty good to me knowing my culture of hope of the brightest star.
Of course, that assumes that nobody on this list starts launching missiles at anybody else on this list.....yeah right!
Nice..
the philippines is the 3rd largest english speaking country in the world next to US and UK. 2nd largest geothermal power next to USA.
the philippines has huge deposit of heavy water deuterium, that will fuel fusion reactor in the future!
They banks are also predicting the birth of a new country. COLUMBIA!!!!!
huh??so the mayan calendar is wrong about the end of the world this december 2012???
@bulacan_boy : correction now the philppines is the 2nd world largest english speaking country in 2020 will be 80% of call centers in the world is in the philippines :))
maybe they mean wold's largest population by 2050!the philippines will be 1 billion by 2050!
How is China +2 when it is the second largest economy right now?
Nevermind. This is change from 2010...
How come Holland dropped 9 places? Economical Holland is a province of Germany. Second Holland has an expending respectable port Rotterdam, that is keeping working more strong with other ports every day. On the energy market, Holland is a big player. Holland is the biggest owner of Europes electricity network. With the changes of energy demand (from oil to electricity) that is something to think about. Holland has got loots of gas. Was world wide biggest investor 2010. Our demography might change, but we're able to open our borders for immigrants with potential.
For the record the author misspelled Colombia
And history shows that Islamic countries ain't innovative. Within the Islamic culture, the only thing they invented so far was coffee. So how come Indonesia is ranked so much highter??
How to believe? India becomes #3 Such a corrupted country!
Since all alternatives for oil have been invented and no inventions are done in countries with dictatorship. I think the ME is not going to climb on the ladder. Almost no food that can be build there. The only thing they can export, is oil (only by export an economy can grow). ME players won't be that big in 2050. Western countries are able to export.
I'm Filipino and since last year, I've had the itch of buying stocks in my country. Although I'm optimistic, there's still hesitation lurking, but now that there's a positive review of the Philippines from HSBC, I think I have to leave hesitation aside, trust my gut and start investing now.
Singapore will probably be annexed by Malaysia or it will be sold by the Lee family. LOL :D
There was a time that Philippines is at its great when dollars is almost the same as the Php, lets make it happen guys!
Whatever countries have coastlines with huge populations are going to go down as sea levels rise and massive relocation and/or construction to fend off the water ensues. If you're on an island, your done.
Columbia should be spelled Colombia
Pakistan in top 30 economies by 2050??? are you sure?
Spain bigger than Russia in 40 years???? are your serious?
LOL this is all bullcrap. Half of these countries won't even exist by then. :)
The actual HSBC report does not mention Pakistan, Peru or Philippines. The 3 P's have been added in the blog here. Instead Venezuela, South Africa and Hong Kong have been incorrectly taken out.
Did you notice that of the top 10 only two are former "colonial powers" – France and UK, and that too at No. 6 and 9? What happened to those pirates? Can't loot and plunder others lands any more?
Currently, the European Union/Eurozone is the "top economy" in the world. It's GDP is 2 trillion dollars beyond that of the USA.
However, whether the Eurozone lasts another decade is anyone's guess.
This is a load of bull, by 2050 you are going to have 10 billion people all fighting over the dwindling resources of food and water. Expect something similar to the future envisioned in The Road Warrior.
Well I have check the HSBC web site and the report is dated Jan 4, 2011. This is a CNN website so the source could be reliable for 2012 predictions.
HSBC's Karen Ward report shows Phillippines not in the list is, an old report dated January 4, 2011, that means there's an updated new report to this http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html but this prediction seems impossible. I've read in the news that HSBC is relocating it's HQs from London, maybe, they can try Philippines where the Asian Development Bank HQs is located, too.
You spelled Colombia wrong in the article... how embarrassing for you
How many Trillions 4 will the USA owe then ?
Bogus. nobody knows what will happen when everyone goes bankrupt. if NOTHING changes, bankruptcy will happen before 2050, and nobody has a clue what will happen then.
They cannot even predict what the Stock market will do tomorrow. And they expect us to believe hey know what the worlds finances will be in 38 years? is this Saturday Night Live or CNN?
In the next 40 years, resource depletion and energy scarcity will completely alter these economies. Making predictions now by simply extrapolating existing trends is fallacy. The entire world economic system will be utterly remade in the next few decades, I would expect massive conflicts over resources to go along with that, on the scale of WW2.
@ Memo
You really think way too much of the US government, congress can't even tie its shoe lace without getting into a brawl...the only thing its good for is starting wars....that only the military industrial complex needs.... =.=
& Government systems are all flawed in one way or another....China isn't even considered communist now. =.=
I highly doubt the US will be 2nd....even in the top 10 or 20.....if the government is ran by headless chickens, unless that changes, maybe the US will become like Canada? That be a good thing actually!
Pakistan?? Really??? Give me a break. Where will the taliban go?
My crystal ball says "We all have to fight corruption in the Philippines before we can get to #16"
I am from India-Indai may become the 3rd largest by 2050 but to see any improvement in life style for the common man or to achieve the infrastructure of a developed country will take a lot more time and money.
a couple people asked about singapore, my guess is that since singapore isnt even in the top 30 right now, other countries economies will remain larger just because of population growth. its a ranking of size of an economy.
if America goes to war with Iran just to make Israel happy. They will fall below Pakistan is this list or may not even show up on the list.
Mexico jumps five spots to #8? Wow, only if all the poor people die in that drug war down there...
I think it would be more useful if they also included a combined Europe. And I think Brasil will be higher. And then a per capita assessment beside it would be good too.
How come the Philippines is NOT in the list in HSBC's own web list? http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/global-insights/insights/2011/world-in-2050.html So is this a FLUKE???
is this for real? Philippines in 16th place? wow.. thank God. our grandchildren will suffer no more.
That is very useful report and near to the reality. It is obvious that the economical power turn from western countries to eastern countries in the world and new developed countries emerge among Asian countries. Population is very important for economies if supported by purchasing power, that means Asia contient that has the biggest population will draw this century...
philippines – dont get excited.. thats 38 years far away.. margin of error of this forecast is high. hehe
@Patpon, there's nothing wrong if you say Philippines has a backward culture, it means we are preserving our culture. Slaved by Christianity? Yes, we are. It means we are religious people and we still believe in God. Maybe your country now is a forward culture and not slaved by Christianity. How pathetic your country is. Unpreserved culture and does not believe in God.
It is interesting that among these 30 countries, only one oil producing countries is present.
The top economy in 40 years will be extinct. I love how economists and the press ignores the science that is telling us a very different picture. The economy is supported by the ecology of the planet. In fact, the ecology of the planet is what defines our economies and is synonymous with the term when the source of commodities are linked to their origins. The planet is facing a precipice of global mass extinction, climate change, and other planetary thresholds that have been crossed. The economic collapse and rebound is a false indicator of what is really going on. The reality is that the economy has been in collapse and free fall since about the mid-1980's and there is no prospect for recovery. The reason why recovery cannot happen is because economists and governments are economically blind to the ecological economics of the situation. The many complex goods and services of nature that are part of our commonwealth without a commodified price tag are being mindlessly extracted and exploited beyond capacity. Hence, the projections on this page are about as realistic as the second coming of Jesus. The science tells us that we can safely bet on a global collapse of our natural resource base leading to the death, starvation, and poverty of billions of people on this planet. The economy we know today will be no more. The largest economy on the planet will be the one that has the most biodiversity left and that isn't going to be China or the US.
@homer that one was dated jan 04, 2011 while this article is jan 12, 2012. They have revised it.
So they are predicting that the US and UK will still be single countries? Bold prediction.
For the Pilippines, strong leadership is a must. Increasing number of technical savvy workers, growing working population are indeed factors for such growth. For me, increased used of our Hyro-electric potentials( Medium sized Plants), development of our next 5 Island Provinces, like Samar, Leyte and Panay for industrialization and better airports are critical. Also development plans for former US bases must include areas for outlet factories or electronic training centers for poor provinces which will jump start such inland or low income groups in those areas. Of course improvement in peace and order and more smooth government processes will be a basic ingredient.
Sorry, i am in a hurry there, it should be Philippines.
@Homer that article is written in 2011
That's a lot of hook-ers for the Philliipines to make that much money
they couldnt even predict the worldwide recession and they want to claim they can forsee 39 years
Yay Philippines!!!
Acaso no hay alguien que habla español aqui..?? Si miran estas predicciones la poblacion sera dominada por el Chino y el español y en tercer lugar el ingles. Asi que a aprender Chino y Español de una buena vez. Gracias.
Philippines? world’s 16th largest economy? seriously? i can't imagine how rich henry sy, lucio tan, gokongwei, ayala, cojuangco will become if this happen. but seriously, it is soooooo gooood to be true.
The ratings will be hugely different if you look at the per capita income.
Only Top 10 makes real sense by all means. These are the nations can grow or say continue to grow.
Time to shift paradigm and look at the brighter side in the light of very recent perceived political instability of the country and down shift of economic growth...Save for those who may be cynical, there are more Filipinos who remain positive...Thus, it's more fun in the Philippines!
A huge leap in ranking for the Philippines is realistic since we have the resources to do so.. We were toe-to-toe against Singapore, during the Ramos Administration, as the Tiger economies of Asia but rampant bad governance has derailed our long sought success.. With the right mindset and with every Filipino picking up the cudgels, I think the Philippines would be able to reach an economic status far better than the haydays of the Marcos regime.. Bangon Pilipinas!
Filipinos are just too excited. The report from HSBC is just a prediction! If you Filipinos keep on electing movie stars to become mayors, governors, congressmen, senators, and president, your country is not going anywhere. Even your current president is the laziest and indecisive of all leaders in Asia. He's content with high popularity ratings earned by way of credit grabbing and fault-finding. Most of all, you Filipinos have utter lack of discipline. Stop asking your government to change. Change yourselves first!
maybe we(Filipinos) can achieve this if we choose our leaders intelligently, not just by popularity.
Filipinos are just too excited. This report from HSBC is just a prediction. If you Filipinos keep on electing movie stars to become mayors, governors, congressmen, senators, and president, your country is not going anywhere. Even your current president is the laziest and most indecisive in Asia. He is content with high popularity ratings from survey firms (owned by his relatives) by way of credit grabbing and fault-finding. Most of all, a majority of Filipinos utterly lack discipline. Stop asking your government to change. Begin to change yourselves first!
I love my country.go philippines
Hooray for the PI!!!!
Philippines @ 16...hmmm... I'm a Filipino and yes, it's too good to be true, and this is just a prediction anyway. Although it's nice to read some positive news about our country. To my fellow Filipinos here on the thread, I know you're all excited about this prediction, but remember, let's keep our feet on the ground. This is just a prediction. Let's make this prediction a reality by changing ourselves first (just like what Ryan said).
I wonder why HSBC stopped at pakistan?How did they figure pakistan to be in the list ?.Looks like they consider Terrorist"s good for economy hahahahaha
Any real economist knows that it's GDP per capita (per person) that matters. India and China have a lot of people so it makes sense that they will have the largest economies. It'll still be better to be living in Norway.
GDP per capita.. so if the population of the Philippines will doubled by 2050, then the prediction is true.. hahaha
i think this is just a prediction base on the growth of the economy per year if the philippines continues to grow its gdp ,the high trust rating to the president and gradually discovering the richness of the south(mindanao) i really believe this might come true...
The future will always be unknown, we know... but at least through this, we Filipinos are given another hope – and with that hope, we can welcome every coming tomorrow positively, doing things that we know will help our country in the long run.
If we backtrack, it took 40 years to put the PH to where it is now, when in the 60's it 2nd to JPN in Asia.. with this projections, it will be another 40 years to be able to climb up where it should really belong though short to regain its original spot, who knows it the current economic growth will make us 5th in Asia gain, an old glory which has been long overdue for the PH should the successive regimes of Imelda (Marcos), Baby Arenas (Ramos) and Mike (Arroyo) ever took place.. It even took another Aquino to clean up the mess of the longest serving Presidents of the PH.. Who knows by then, it would take another Aquino, the 3rd one to become a President, should PNoy ever consider to marry or have a son ,the least.. Good for PH, it is again back in the limelight!!!
its all here in philippines what ever u like to do in life! all are welcome! we are a very open country.
WTH??? Aquinos?? yeah.. another AQUINO to help them expand their haciendas
@raprap, the haciendas was given to the farmers last year.
this is ridiculous and non-sense!
What EXACTLY is the reason on how Philippines will be able to leapfrog to 16th place?? There must be a major factor aside from gross GDP alone. Because I think the country's natural resources will already be depleted by then, and the population will boom in a number that the government can't manage already. Not to mention pollution and calamities. But don't get me wrong, I truly believe that Philippines has a great potential, and I want to know what can unleash that potential. I just don't want to give my fellow Filipinos false hopes and be complacent about the future. I think predicting critical matters like this should have more relevant and complete basis.
Filipino, please relax bro, hahaha, the Philippines should at least grow above 24% to catch up Indonesia current national GDP. Indonesia's GDP today is four times bigger than the GDP of the Philippines. Not only that, even Indonesia's GDP per capita was bigger than the philippines. Then about economic growth and natural resources, Indonesia in 2011 recorded the highest growth in ASEAN above 6.5%, while the Philippines only 3.5%. Moreover, about natural resources, Indonesia has the 14th largest natural gas reserves in the world, 28th largest Oil reserves, the world's largest coal exporter after Australia and Russia, the world's largest palm oil (producer, exporter and planter), no need to mention about the rubber, agricultural and other resources. But HSBC estimates Indonesian economy will not grow/stagnant until 2050, sad and surprising. while Goldman, City, other banks and other survey estimates that in 2050 Indonesia was in the top ten largest economies in the world. If you don't trust me, just google it, read CIA Worldfactbook, and other internet sources. Only HSBC's report which is different from the other.
Pakistan in the list! Surely, HSBC ban must be joking.
@john, indonesia is so so limited country.
Admit it year 2050 has a long way to go well who knows what the outcome of our future will be, but at least we Filipinos were given a chance to dream again and have our hopes high for the future of our country. I do agree that the people's productivity is the key to success of an organization or a country. I guess the reason why the Philippines sky rocketed to number 16 is because of the rise of the population we experience every year and with this I think we have the chance to increase the level of competency of each individual in the different sectors of the economy.
I think S. Korea will be higher than 13th because these guys are such good business people.
@bulacan_boy yups, Indonesia is so so limited country, and you need to hope that Indonesia from now until 2050 will not grow even at 1% lol... coz currently Indonesia has the 17th largest economy in the world, not only in Asia or ASEAN.
This list is already wrong. It says that Brazil will go up 2 places to become the 6th economy in the world. The thing is, as of Jan 1, 2012, Brazil overtook UK's place and already is the 6th economy in the world. It is projected to be the 5th by 2030.
50-year predictions that don't take account of climate change are bunk. The strongest economies will come from among those well-governed countries whose major cities have not been submerged under the ocean, and who therefore don't have to rebuild infrastructure while simultaneously supporting millions of refugees. Perhaps this is a good time to invest in Switzerland?
In general, this prediction based on fast population growth is contra factum (i.e. without factual basis). If indeed that was true, the Philippines, whose population has been growing the fastest in Asia, from 27 million in 1960 to over 100million today, should have the most prosperous economy with the least poverty. But the Philippines has the lowest GDP per capita at $3,500 but the highest fertility rate at 3.19 according to http://www.indexmundi.com.
In order for this prediction to have any credibility, they need to show us their predictions from 50 years ago, 40 years ago, 30 years ago, etc. If they have been right all of those times, it lends weight to their predictions now. If, as I suspect, their previous predictions have proven to be inaccurate, then they need to explain why anyone should believe those predictions this time.
I believe that these are just guesses and that there are simply too many variables which could dramatically affect the outcome. Because of that, in order to be credible, the predictors need to state on which assumptions their predictions rely.
Well, it is a good news for the Philippines but still lot of work to do (as a challenger for the Filipino people) to achieve as a top economies of the world.
I think the jump to 16th spot for the Philippines is realistic. By 2050, most of the Filipinos living below poverty line shall have starved to death, swept away to the sea due to uncontrolled flooding and buried alive due to landslides...
I hope they did not consult Madam Auring on this prediction.
It's a healthy prediction though.
Go! Philippines!Go!
Philippines will most likely become one of the top economies within 40 years from now if the progress they observed from this country continues. There's a reason it is called a prediction or forecast. But the wind of change can shift anytime. Always hoping for the best.
In 2049 HSBC will be gone. too bad they won't see their predictions unveiled. go pinoys!
This is hoax!, I've visited the HSBC Global site just now, and did not find this report for 2012.
OK, so now let alone predict 2050, to write the actual ranking of the current biggest economy they are still wrong, how could they predict the future?
I'm also no doubt about Philippines, but the rank for other countries is just bull..
HSBC uses data based on year 2000, no wonder if they write a lot of data not in accordance with current data. there is still the economic crisis in Asia at that time.
what makes me wonder is, why they choose data from 2000 and not from the more recent data?...
GOD BLESS PHILIPPINES!!!
A silly, pointless prediction, because they are using linear predictions and claiming that current trends will continue unabated in a straight line for four decades. In reality, hardly anything is linear over such time spans, least of all economic development and population shifts. It is astonishing that anyone gets paid to produce such rubbish.
way to Go Philippines.. |
ahah its more fun in the philippines! :P ahaha
Where is Singapore? Exactly, MM Lee is right... you see the emerging markets in asia – China, India, Philippines, Indonesia... If these country will be what the author has predicted, they will be working for their own countries..
Pakistan at #30? Are you kidding me? It is a failed economy!!
I like Bhutan's idea of Gross National Happiness, instead of the GDP and top economy that people keep talking about.
Whats the point of all the wealth when u cannot enjoy it, thats what is happening in the west today, no joy or happiness....
I have read this a year ago in Wikipedia whose research conducted by "Gold Sachman?". I thought its a hoax. Now its HSBC! Cool, I hope i'm still alive by then.
US being #2 is major wishful thinking, not realistic at all. Many of those western nations will not be nearly as high on the list. Of course, this is just a random list, two years ago they would have come up with a completely different list. Not to be taken seriously. 2050 is too far away for anyone to predict. Many of those that are not in the top 10 for 2050 are actually predicted to be such within a decade by all forecasters. Turkey for instance. Those from US and Europe might want to look farther to be able to have hope because they are doomed in the short term. Fact is, long term is not at all predictable, this article takes you to fantasy land.
By 2050, HSBC no longer exist. Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16th largest economy. It's suicide!!!
This list is cyclonic!
I've always believed the Philippines will climb back up again, probably even sooner than 2050. With all the talented and skilled people we have here and abroad, that just goes to say we all are achievers. We just need every Filipino to realize how to make our collective efforts contribute to one common goal and boom! Up up we all go! And yeah, it's also because #itsmorefuninthePHILIPPINES!
I believe that the Philippines will be a blessed nation in all over the world because our GOD is Alive....HIS name is JESUS!!!AMEN and AMEN!!!
I saw some figures and it is not that impressing that the Philippines will have about 1.8 trillion dollars GDP whereas Malaysia won't be that far anyway with their predicted 1.1 trillion dollar GDP. And Malaysia will by then just have a third of PH's population. All in all, Malaysians will be still richer than Filipinos.
To make the prediction true, more must be done than now: More spending on infrastructure, improvement in education, development of a better waste management, expansion of energy supply, least corruption, highest efficiency. These are prerequisites to become number 16 (and eventually overtake Indonesia).
As of now, only 1.6% of GDP is spent on Philippines infrastructure. That must be at least tripled!
Who cares! I am probably dead by that time!
On the prediction itself: They said already in the 1960s, Philippines will arise, in the 1990s they said same. Now we are in the 2010s. As of now: In the meantime, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, China, Taiwan overtook Philippines, in terms of per capita GDP.
The HSBC report shouldn't be taken for granted by the Filipinos but it should serve as an inspiration!
If you are young enough, you should really save this page and keep it until 2050 and then compare the datas.
There are following scenarios, of course:
One outcome might be, that Philippines will be even better placed than the 16th place.
Another, is that it reaches the 16th place or it doesn't but still interesting will be, how far it will be place from the 16th place.
And even, if we don't reach the 16t place, but leapfrog, for eg., 16 place instead the forecasted 27, then still we can be happy.
@Asherhanjam:
Spain was religious in the 1950s but even they realized there that just hoping for God's help and do nothing will result in no improvement at all.
Since this is international, let me make a comment on at least another country: Pakistan is fully unrealistic
I am no longer surprise that China will soon be ranked as the world's top economy and will be dominating the market due to their country's continuous progress, contribution to global market, and their people's determination to move forward. This issue is obviously not unfamiliar nor new to any of us because of the fact that this had also been the findings of several studies, articles, and even of some of my professors in De La Salle University. I actually think that even the United States is fully aware of the potentials of China and considers this as a threat to their present standing. I am just not quite sure with the article's prediction about the future ranking of the Philippines cause personally with the type of government we have and ignorant citizens in it, Philippines has a long way to go and needs a lot of changing to go through. It's not that i underestimate the capabilities and potentials of the citizens and the country but this had also been based on facts and even studies from the past until our present time.
hahaha, if Filipinos want to overtake Indonesia, you need to tripled your GDP per capita by now! just face the reality, today (not in 2050 but in 2012) Indonesia's GDP is four times of the Philippines GDP... IF and big IF, Indonesia GDP growth rate even only 3% YoY, i think it is impossible for Philippines to catch up, let alone to surpasses Indonesia. unless the Indonesian economy is not growing, and the Philippines economy grew above 7% per year. But you should to know that in 2009 only, when the global economy in recession, Indonesia still recorded economic growth above 4%.
as a comparison, in 2011 ndonesia recorded economic growth of about 6.5% year on year, and phillipines only recorded economic growth of 3.5% year on year, and it's not just a quarter.
We do have to always be optimistic, but we also need to be realistic.
Filipinos seem to love making all these motherhood statements.
and we all know thet the world has no limits and growth will continue into infinity.. no limits on fossil fuels, water, soil, land , timber etc etc etc any natural resources etc.. just growing mindlessly consuming more and more, polluting more and more and heading where exactly?.. McDonalds ?. disneyland?.. human beings are quite insane.
@Joker: Don't generalize.
To the Article and back to Pakistan:
I think since the islamization of Pakistan started under Mohammed Zia ul-Haq in the late 1970s, I do really wonder how HSBC has the nuts to give Pakistan such a prediction. Considering the much poorer infrastructure compared even to the Philippines, the astonishingly high illiteracy rate and the growing islamization, it can be seen already as a miracle that Pakistan will make such a progress.
@Andi:
Indonesia will face the problem of an aging population much sooner than the Philippines due to the much lower fertility rate and Indonesia hasn't even built up yet an advanced social security system – of course Philippines has neither done so. But the Philippines at least has more time to adapt due to a younger population.
Suharto's family planning since the 1970s went a bit too aggressive. Indonesia is thus more urged to use its so called demographic dividend actually from this day on in the next 20 years. If you fail to invest in infrastructure in Indonesia adequately, than you will have a very big problem with ever developing further. (Just about 2% of GDP is spent on infrastructure.) The momentum would be gone by then. And don't think you can rely on OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) around 2030 because the Philippines will also have by then a much smaller fertility rate than in 2011 and the Philippines itself will have a much higher demand for labor.
Though, I am sceptical too if Indonesia will be overtaken but in this world everything is possible. A long way is to go, of course.
@Filipino Expat
With all due respect, but explain to the non-religious users how come countries less relying on belief in god do perform better in their economy, have less corruption and so on and so on compared to more religious country like Philippines but also Nigeria, Pakistan etc. Some less religious countries are not really pathetic if you see their justice system work much better than that of the Philippines, for example.
But I didn't say in my post that religiosity is a cause of all the problems, in particular that of the Philippines. I just want to point out that you miserably rebutted your counterpart, worse you didn't even bother to give counter arguments against his statement. (I can mention a few examples that religiosity is not necessarily an inhibitor of economic development.)
I am very optimistic of the Philippines. Everyday, I meet people who have been working hard and say that they can finish doing their works no matter what.
Also it's one of the richest in the world in terms of unexplored natural resources. Honestly, Filipinos are competent and can always do something essential with all that they have. It is something inherent in the culture, and will always be true. For now, Filipinos are adjusting and hoping (with a little kiss of fortune) that the country will surely progress in the future, and land into whatever place it deserves.
Woah!!! this is a great news for Filipinos.. i just hope this massive economic growth (as predicted by HSBC researchers) will happen anytime SOOOoooN.. 2050 seems like forever.. ehehe :))
@Archie
"For now, Filipinos are adjusting and hoping (with a little kiss of fortune) that the country will surely progress in the future, and land into whatever place it deserves."
Hope? Action is needed. Action and a more advanced culture of industry. Fortune will not come to us.
"they can finish doing their works no matter what. "
Work must be done with efficiency and accuracy.
But thinking about this HSBC analysis: They were not able to predict the financial crisis a year ahead and now they want to predict 2050? Why not making a forecast which rank Fiji will get in 2254?
The physical settings of Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be great constraint factors. Egypt just exists at the Nile, the rest of the country is virtually dead/desert. Saudi Arabia won't have that much oil anymore at that time.
Iran will have already the problem of an aging population for years since there they also had an aggressive family planning programme which – even to the surprise of the initiators and many demographers worldwide – brought a sharp decline in fertility rate from the 1980s with an average of 7 children per couple to just about less than 2 nowerdays.
Brazil is gifted with its huge size of its territory and its vast amount of minerals but the demographics factors also is a crucial aspect there. With an average of about 1.8 children per couple also Brazil will have a problem of aging by 2050.
On the list, shocking 17 to 20 out of 30 countries will face the problem of an aging population. With the current decline rate of the total fertility rate of Mexico even that country will face a demographic decline at that time.
Philippines will be the Top Largest Economy in South East Asia and 16th largest Economy in the World by 2050, Why not.. Every Country have a right to progress, Even the Philippines fall down 10 times because of Natural Disaster and Political Crisis.. the Philippines will rise up 11 times to show to the world that Filipino are strong, The Philippines are now moving progress beyond other Asian Countries because of its decades of shadow experiences.
Too bad nothing HSBC says can be taken seriously. All the problems associated with the fiat currency system and its direct ties to cheap hydrocarbon energy are not taken into account. The United States seems poised for a much larger drop than from #1 to #2 since it is the most reliant on cheap energy of all nations in the world. And without any plan in place to replace the world's peaking supply of oil, the price of everything will skyrocket and the fiat currency system will burst at the seams. It will be revealed that fiat currency system is a giant ponzi scheme that relies on a cheap, abundant supply of oil to feed the upward spiral of the fiat system. It is easy to see why HSBC can't see this situation though since they are a cog in the machine with an inability to see the coming collapse of the world economy.
Zeitgeist Movement is all I have to say.
Philippines being the 16th largest economy???? Maybe. Aquino won't be the president by then.
My prediction for 2050, all skilled workers and professionals are already abroad and the Philippines will be left with ignorant voters living in a world of political circus.
That's good news! leapfrogging 27 ranks up!
I have a strong feeling that Manny Pacquiao's presidencies (2 terms) would have contribute most... wanna bet on that?
more than half of the comments are either philippine-praising or philippine-bashing..
cmon people..
the whole article is just a "projection"..and yet, if it makes filipinos happy, let them be..
but also, a note to filipinos: keep the pride to the minimum..cos yet again, these are just projections..
it might be a big blow to yer egos if and when these things won't occur as they are "projected" to be..
Oh... Thanks for this posts
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
PHILIPPINES !!!!! M so happy to be pinoy : )
Jai Ho India !!!!
MUST BE A MISTAKE, BRAZIL IS NOW ON UK IN SIXTH PLACE (DATA IMF 2011). UNFORTUNATELY UNITED STATES WILL LEAVE THE NUMBER ONE IN 2016, WAS REPORTED IN MANY STUDIES.
I believe that the possibility of a Philippine Economy leapfrog by 27 places would be higher if gen Z Filipinos (those born within the years 1994-2000's) clearly understand that they should refrain from having children first while simultaneously concentrating on career productivity. By 2050, gen z Filipinos would be aged about 35-50 years old, well within the peak of their respective careers. Less babies, more work (in all concerned fields such as education, commerce, technology, corruption reduction and what not) equals a more robust economy.
What would be the key growth driver in Philippines? BPO, Tourism, Mining..but will this be sufficient? I doubt, considering the political scenario.
Reply me @agmmaim or visit beyondcases.com/Resume
So much for predictions, Brasil is already number 6, having slipped past Britain a few weeks ago. Yes, total GDP is important, but on a per capita basis, it will take a long time for the climbers to match the US and Europe. I think Australia will be much higher on the list, this is a place that will begin to tick in earnest in about 20 years, remember this post!!! The have the best of both world's: first world governance and developing world potential with a dynamic agrobiz and mining sector, without the corruption that makes places like Venezuela, Nigeria and Dem. Congo basket cases even with such tremendous resources. Russia could also move higher if they can move beyond their modern version of the Tzarist state with all its corruption and interference in the economy.
My dream/vision of a First World Philippines in two more decades!
Great! I hope I get to live to see it!
Some say here, Singapore would be under water surface by then. Than how much would be the Netherlands... ^_^
@LOL:
After decades of humiliation and disappointments, the Filipino people desperately need such good news if you see it on the psychological side. Still some here are getting high too early. And they do forget, this is an international forum and seem not to care to embarrass themselves before an international readership
@Filipino10593
If the birth cohort of the generation Z is 1994 to 2000 as you mentioned then those people will be at least 50 years old in 2050 and not 35 to 50 years old.
But in the rest of you post I agree and am glad that there are still fellow countrymen who do have a healthy kind of optimism.
If you know the development of total fertility rate in the Philippines, then you will see that the gen Z women will be the generation who will have an average of just 2 to 3 babies. (As of 2012, still women have an average of 3 to 4.)
In a world run by capitalism, we are writing our comments regarding this article based upon today's system of gaining progress. As time passes by, there might be certain trends that will determine economic gains. We don't have any idea about this since these trends are about to happen. Whatever these may be, let us not undermine small developing countries. Every countries has its own potentials–their natural resources, skilled labor force.
China has and is continuing to demonstrate what is needed in order to reach one of the top economies in the world. Through their economic reforms and business minded characteristics, it has paved the way for them to be the successful country that they are today. Like the United States, they have conquered various countries in terms of businesses and corporations that they possess, and this has helped their economy to grow even more. With these, it is no surprise that by the year 2050, they will own the spot of being the top economy in the whole world.
One of things that has astonished me about this article is the fact that the top economies that we have today will eventually have its downfall by the year 2050. I have always perceived the countries in Europe owning the top ranks in almost everything, but knowing that many of their economies will soon fall, shocks me. But the brighter note on this one would be the fact that developing countries will have their chance to show that they can also reach the top ranks, and this is definitely something positive to look forward to.
Im glad im from Canada... it makes me a 10.
It is quite surprising that the Philippines would be among the top 20 in 2050, and ranked 16th at that. The prediction in itself is astonishing as a whole given that there are other promising countries as of the moment that were not able to reach what the predictors state as the rank of the Philippines in 2050, say the UAE, Taiwan, Singapore and so on. If that would really be the case then, the Philippines must have done an impressive job improving the state of living of its people in the prior years, which may technically be referred to as the times today as the author mentioned that changes would in a long term basis.
The Philippines at 16th??? Dream on!!!
Indonesia is #16 in the actual HSBC report, not the Philippines
He must think that all SEA nations are alike, either that or he's trolling us.
http://www.hsbc.com/1/content/assets/about_hsbc/2011_in_the_future/111013_the_world_in_2050.pdf
If the future could be predicted it would have been bottled and sold many years ago.
I know they have put people to work but this is ridiculous and does not hold a grain of sand at all.
Now what name are you going to give this game, so the odds makers in Vegas can take your money.
go..go .....go...philippines....For God, People, Nature, and Country
I guess HSBC made a wrong projection. It should have been Philippines at #1! Even a dream has limits.