Advertisement

Wednesday 21 December 2011

| Subscribe

Christmas cheer for high street amid recession warning

Christmas shoppers have been out in force this month, giving the high street a rare and much-needed reason for festive cheer.

Christmas shoppers have been out in force this month, giving the high street a rare and much-needed reason for festive cheer.
The CBI distributive trades survey, which covers the first two weeks of December, found that more retailers had enjoyed year-on-year sales growth than those that suffered a fall – the first positive performance since May. Photo: Getty

The CBI distributive trades survey, which covers the first two weeks of December, found that more retailers had enjoyed year-on-year sales growth than those that suffered a fall – the first positive performance since May.

The balance of +9pc of companies that said sales rose on last December was significantly better than the -6pc economists had expected and a marked improvement on the -19pc in November. Some 41pc of retailers saw an increase in sales, while 32pc reported a decline.

The upbeat figures came as Nationwide Building Society reported that consumer confidence rebounded last month from a record low, although the public remained cautious about the future. Its index of sentiment increased to 40 from 36 in October, which was the lowest since the survey began in 2004.

The two reports offered a rare glimmer of hope amid other dire predictions. The GfK NOP consumer confidence index fell two points to -33, its lowest in almost three years and its third weakest level on record, and Ben Broadbent, the newest member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warned that Britain is at risk of slipping into recession.

"Clearly things have slowed a lot since earlier this year and there is a material chance of a technical recession," he told the Evening Standard newspaper.

His colleague Charlie Bean, the Bank's deputy Governor, added that the Bank was likely to increase quantitative easing in February when the latest £75bn round of money printing to combat the threat of a downturn is completed.

Retailers have had a torrid time, with HMV and Ocado being the latest this week to warn of trouble ahead. Both Mr Bean and Mr Broadbent raised hopes that the consumer climate should improve next year, saying inflation ought to fall sharply from its current level of 4.8pc – releasing the worst of the squeeze on households and promising real-term pay rises.

According to the CBI, online retailers continue to thrive – with almost all companies in the distributive trades survey reporting a rise in sales. Grocers and recreational retailers had a strong month, at +52pc and +44pc respectively, while department stores trod water.

Judith McKenna, chairman of the CBI distributive trades panel and ASDA's chief financial officer, said: "Early discounting helped retailers add a little extra sparkle to their sales in December, although the reprieve appears to only be temporary as they don't expect sales to continue to grow into January."

Adding to the sense of current optimism, the report showed a large upswing in orders placed with suppliers, which rose to -4pc from -25pc in November. Sales of big ticket items collapsed, however, with all retailers reporting a drop in fridges, cookers and similar white goods.

Annalisa Piazza, of Newedge Strategy, said: "The outcome is much more solid than expected. Generous retail discounts and supermarket war prices for food might have helped the solid rebound in retail activity right before Christmas."

However, the improved December retail figures masked concerns about future months. The CBI reported that the measure of expected demand for next month was at -18pc. Ms Piazza said: "The picture looks less gloomy than in the past few months but we wouldn't read too much out of a one-month reading. UK households remain concerned about their future financial situation and disposable income remains under pressure with rising unemployment.

"Looking ahead, the picture for retail sales is less encouraging... signalling that the majority of respondents still see a negative outlook in the near term."

    Share:
  •  
  •  
telegraphuk
blog comments powered by Disqus
Advertisement

Best deals from travelzoo

Advertisement
Loading
Advertisement