Two years ago, Fernando Lugo was a provincial bishop based in one of Paraguay’s poorest regions. In December 2006, a petition with 100,000 signatures encouraged him to quit the church and enter politics.

Two weeks before the presidential elections, Lugo’s campaign is on its last lap. Leading in pre-poll surveys, he is considered the man who could make Paraguayan politics veer to the left.

The former clergyman has been touring Paraguay for 14 months lending an attentive ear to the grievances of the people. He is very popular amongst the destitute and his methods are convincing. “He is not making lots of promises to break them later. He listens to every Paraguayan. This is why every citizen of Paraguay identifies with him,” claims a supporter.

Too popular for a clergyman?

The government that Lugo challenges is a political colossus – the Colorado party has been in power in Paraguay for more than 60 years. To discredit Lugo, his opponents distribute pamphlets that portray the candidate as a Colombian Marxist Farc guerilla.

The soya industry is one of his strongest enemies. Industry spokesman Claudia Ruser even speaks of a communist threat: “When he comes to power, he will do exactly what Lenin did.”

The opposition’s victory in Paraguayan elections could mark a revolution for the Latin American country, where half of the country’s six million inhabitants earn less than 2 dollars a day.

However, despite his lead in opinion polls, Lugo’s victory is far from being certain. Large-scale fraud is expected during the elections, which, according to political analyst Milda Rivarola, could alter results significantly. “If we were a country where laws were followed, Lugo would win for sure!”

Paraguay – a sorry state of affairs

Excepting Colombia, Paraguay is the last Latin American country to have resisted the continent’s swing to the left after the election of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in 1998.

In spite of its poverty and little international influence, Paraguay has its geopolitical importance. Being situated near Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia, the country is militarily strategic, and the United States has long sought to set up a military base there. Paraguay also harbours the Guarani water table, one of the world’s most important drinking water sources. It also controls part of Itaipu, the world’s biggest hydroelectric factory.

Considered a lawless land with a corrupt state, Paraguay is home to the most important commercial mafia in the region. Many fear that the country may risk being turned into a terrorist zone.