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Our View: Defiance in the face of Turkey’s drill threats is a game of bluffs
AFTER THE stepping up of Turkish threats, President Christofias had no choice but to announce that Cyprus would go ahead with the drilling for hydrocarbons in its Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ). He could not be seen to be giving in to Prime Minister Erdogan’s crude public attempt at bullying our government into submission.
It was not as if we were engaging in aggressive or illegal behaviour. Cyprus has every right to carry out explorations for hydrocarbons in its EEZ, if and when it chooses to do so, without seeking the permission of Ankara, whose representative at the EU misleadingly claimed that the drilling would take place in ‘disputed waters’. When speaking in Brussels, Turkish officials make sure to give their sabre-rattling a veneer of legality.
Christofias pointed out that Cyprus was exercising its sovereign right, based on international law and the Law of the Sea by going ahead with the drilling. Noble Energy would commence the exploratory drilling, as scheduled, next month, he defiantly announced. Had he decided that Erdogan was bluffing, because it would be very difficult to exercise our sovereign rights if Turkey sent warships to Block 12?
The bitter truth is that we have neither an air-force nor a navy to defend our sovereign rights at sea. Christofias said that if Turkey committed an unlawful act, “we would expect a strong and effective response from the international community”, but this was wishful rather than strategic thinking. We are deluding ourselves if we think that the international community would come to Cyprus’ rescue in the event that Turkey carries out its threats.
Christofias must be aware of this, but he had to say that there would be a response and that we would not be on our own. He was speaking from a position of relative safety, because if Erdogan carried out his threat, it would be Noble Energy boats that would be confronted with Turkish warships. And the most likely scenario is that the Turks would issue a warning and the boats would subsequently leave the area, because the company would not want to put its staff and expensive equipment at risk.
It would be Noble that would give in to the Turkish threats in such a case and not the Cyprus government. Nobody in Cyprus would be able to accuse Christofias of backing down, even though Turkey would have prevented the start of the drilling. Erdogan has probably based his belligerent rhetoric on this calculation as well, even though he would also be achieving his aim.
Unfortunately, there would not be much the Cyprus government would be able to do in response, other than to report Turkey’s unlawful action. Creating the conditions that would allow Noble Energy to commence drilling is a much more difficult proposition.
