Kentucky gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2011

Key dates

• Detailed dates and deadlines relevant to the election are listed at the Kentucky State Board of Elections and may change as the state legislature has the power to amend the schedule.^[3]

• Voters may check their registration status, register for the first time, or request an absentee ballot at the Kentucky State Board of Election's Voter Registration Portal.

• Certified results for elections are legally due no later than June 6, 2011 for the primary and November 28, 2011 for general election results. These are the latest dates for the state canvassers to meet and full certified results may not be publicly available until several days later.

• Administrative deadlines are at close of business (4:00) unless otherwise noted.

Race background

Steve Beshear has previously served in Kentucky's House of Representatives, as the Commonwealth's Attorney General, and then as the Lieutenant General, all prior to being elected to his first term as Governor. Well known throughout the state, he secured his first term with a 17-point plurality, ousting Republican incumbent Ernie Fletcher.

In office, he has been a relatively unpopular governor; despite coming in closer to the top when compared with his peers in other states, this is in a political landscape where only a handful of governors can claim to have approval ratings that crack 50%.^[4] He has seen his numbers rise since the beginning of his term, with approval ratings taken in conjunction with preliminary polls on the 2011 gubernatorial election giving him favorable ratings in the high-40's.

His only announced primary contender was Otis Hensley, Jr., something of a perennial candidate. In the 2007 Democratic primary for the governorship he took 1.09%, compared to 41.02% for Beshear. By the time the deadline for candidates to fle passed, Hensley's name was not on any official lists of gubernatorial hopefuls.

Across the aisle, the State Senate President, David L. Williams and businessman Phillip Moffet have declared their candidacies. Beshear is beating each by double digit margins in hypothetical matchups, with larger edges over Moffet. Undecided voters are also higher when voters are asked to make a theoretical choice between Beshear and Moffet then when Williams is the named GOP candidate. At this point, with nine months before the polls open, this reflects Moffet's lower name recognition and a voting base still reeling from the blast of information in the 2010 midterms.

Beshear will make his re-election run with a new running mate. Incumbent Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo chose to pursue a U.S. Senate seat, making him unavailable when Beshear announced he would run again in July of 2009. In Mongiardo's place, Jerry Abramson, Lousiville's Mayor, joined the ticket.

Among GOP hopefuls, Representative Mike Harmon has signed on with Moffet and Williams' campaign has State Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer. Farmer's stint as a Kentucky Wildcat player may boost his appeal and name recognition on the campaign trail.

Finishing out declared candidates is Independent Gatewood Galbraith, a perennial candidate making his fifth gubernatorial run. He has sought numerous other offices and has previously been a registered Democrat and a Reform Party candidate. His performance in previous elections shows he might play the spoiler in a close race if the 2011 campaign goes well for him.

Race tracking

See also: Ballotpedia Election Racetracking

Results

Polls

On February 28 and March 1, 2010, Braun Research conducted a telephone survey of 804 Kentucky voters who are likely to vote in 2011. Respondents were asked "if the election for governor and lieutenant governor were held today, and your choices were the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Herry Abramson or the Republican ticket of David Williams and Richie Farmer, who would you vote for?"

Eight months later, Mason-Dixon Polling conducted a similar survey, and though the Beshear/Abramson ticket lost a little bit of ground, they maintained a 15 point advantage over Williams/Farmer. In a later poll, conducted in June 2011, the incumbent and his running mate gained 6 points, with 7% of the polled voters gaining clarifying their position in the eight months between polls.

Results

In the event that no candidate received more than 40% of the vote in her party's primary, a run-off would have been scheduled. Turnout was scant, perhaps even lighter than predicted, but in the Republican field, the only real primary, David Williams finished with an eight point cushion to avoid that run-off.

Gubernatorial Republican Primary election
Party		Candidate	Vote Percentage
	Republican Party	aDavid Williams	48.22%
	Republican Party	Phil Moffett	37.98%
	Republican Party	Barbara Holsclaw	13.80%
Total Votes			142,108

Gubernatorial Democratic Primary election
Party		Candidate	Vote Percentage
	Democratic Party	aSteve Beshear	(uncontested)
	Democratic Party	Otis Hensley, Jr.	(left race)
Total Votes

Candidates

Democratic

• Steve Beshear, the current Governor, running with Jerry E. Abramson, the former Mayor of Louisville.
• Otis "Bull Man" Hensley, Jr., a contractor for the state highway department, was running with Richard Robbins, his co-candidate in prior races. Hensley's name did not appear on the list of final candidates released on January 26, 2011, and he has presumably left the race.

Republican

• State Senator David Williams, running with Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer.
• Jefferson County Clerk Barbara Holsclaw, running with Bill Vermillion, Jr.
• Businessman Phil Moffett,^[5] running with State Representative Mike Harmon for lieutenant governor, a ticket that aligned itself with the Tea Party.

Independent

• Attorney and frequent candidate Gatewood Galbraith, running with Dea Riley, a marketing professional.

Polls

Republican

The Kentucky Registry of Election Finance administers laws regulating election financing and reporting. It is also the repository for all reports that candidates and committees are required to file.

Due dates for reports

• Contributions include all fundraising and donations, loans, money rolled over from previous accounts, and all other income to the campaign.
• Reports are listed by the day the candidate filed, which may or may not be the due date.
• Amended reports are only put on a separate line if the amendment showed a changes in the total amounts; otherwise, there is simply a note to indicate that an amendment was filed.

Nominees

Beshear & Abramson

Williams & Farmer

Former candidates

Holsclaw & Vermillion

Moffett & Harmon