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UPDATED POLL WATCH: OBAMA ON THE RISE?

Barack Obama got a sweet, sweet end of '07 present in the form of [a Des Moines Register poll ](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEW...)that has him increasing his lead over the Hillary Clinton campaign.

"Obama was the choice of 32% of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28% in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25% and [John] Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24%," the newspaper writes.

But wait, it turns out the DMR poll was taken over the Christmas holiday and weekend before and that begs the question, can it be trusted? Who is talking to pollsters in Iowa on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day? Maybe, but we really need another survey or two to confirm this in the next 48 hours, especially since it doesn't jibe with Edwards stellar rise the past 10 days.

Also, some camps have called into question the sample of Iowans who were polled in the DMR survey.

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BILL'S TAKE ON TED AND CAUCUSES

Bill Clinton argued today that Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was just being a good head of his state when he said Iowa was unattractive in the winter and called for bumping the caucuses from their spot because they’re “hugely undemocratic” and exclude “so many people.”

“Look, every state would like to go first,” Clinton said in Atlantic, Iowa. “He was just being a good governor of Ohio when someone asked him about it…. Obviously we don’t feel that way.”

But Clinton seemed to agree with a good part of Strickland’s underlying argument – that the caucuses exclude people – when he spoke to students in Iowa City a couple of weeks ago.

Asked if he thought it was OK for students from out of state to caucus, Clinton prefaced his answer with a wind-up about how Iowa’s service members and others can’t participate when they are away.

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DEMS’ CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD: THE 527 WARS

The Clinton, Obama and Edwards camps are all up to their eyeballs in a special interest fray that is a sure cure for insomnia.

Team Barack set off the bore war among the campaigns over who has the worst record of being tied to third-party special interest groups that spend millions attacking candidates on behalf of candidates.

The flap began Saturday when Obama’s campaign manager sent out a memo hinting, but not outright charging, that John Edwards may have had inappropriate contact with one of those groups, the Alliance for a New America, which a former top Edwards aide, Nick Baldick, is running.

If you’re still with us, the violation would be that it is illegal for campaigns to talk to and coordinate with those third-party groups, known as 527s. Team Edwards laughs off the charge, saying it has done nothing wrong.

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BUSH HAILS LOTT REPLACEMENT

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour announced today that GOP Rep. Roger Wicker will fill the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Trent Lott.

President Bush sent his congratulations to Wicker this morning and issued the following statement:

“Today Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour announced the appointment of Representative Roger Wicker to serve as United States Senator for the state of Mississippi, succeeding Senator Trent Lott. I welcome Representative Wicker's appointment and commend Governor Barbour for the selection. Representative Wicker's leadership has earned the respect of his constituents and his colleagues in the House of Representatives. He is an advocate for our men and women in uniform and a champion of modernizing our health care system. And he shares Senator Lott's commitment to promote the interests of the people of Mississippi. I look forward to working with Roger in his new role representing Mississippi in the United States Senate."

**- Ken Bazinet**

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DID PAK GOVERNMENT MOLES HELP SLAY BHUTTO?

[**By James Gordon Meek**](http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dc/james-meek/)

New questions are being raised about divided loyalties inside the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. Could this shocking political murder have been, at least in part, an inside job? In Sunday's Daily News, we reported exclusively on increasing suspicions among top U.S. counterterrorism officials that [**Al Qaeda leaders have been protected by rogue operatives from Pakistan's army or Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency**](http://www.nydailynews.com/news/us_world/2007/12/30/2007-12-30_some_pros...), who could just as easily have aided them in slaying the former prime minister.

Particular attention is on Osama Bin Laden's No. 2, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, whose ease at communicationg to the West this year has proven remarkable. Zawahiri has issued almost monthly video or audio statements throughout 2007, including some referring to specific events as recently as seven days earlier.

It's worth noting that the ISI's extended retiree network is open for business and that its former chief under Bhutto, Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, is still a prominent figure in Pakistan. Gul openly stated in a 2003 interview that [**"God will destroy America,"**](http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_30-8-2003_pg7_48) and has professed admiration for enemies of the U.S. Those might be just meaningless comments were it not from the man who organized that Taliban a decade ago as an instrument of Pakistan's foreign policy.

Read more about Bhutto's assassination and upheaval in the Musharraf government and Taliban command after the jump.

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CLINTON BACKER: NIX IOWA, N.H. RITUAL

Ohio Gov Ted Strickland said out loud what a lot of people (who don't live in Iowa or New Hampshire) have been thinking for a while: it "makes no sense," to start the presidential nominating process in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"I'd like to see both parties say, 'We're going to bring this to an end,' " [he is quoted as saying in the Columbus Dispatch.](http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/national_world/stories/2007...)

The problem is Strickland, who is on most lists of prospective Democratic vice presidential runningmates, recently campaigned in Iowa for Hillary Clinton, and her opponents could use his comments against her the next 10 days.

Actually, they already did.

Within minutes of each other, two of Clinton's top rival campaign war rooms circulated the article to The Mouth and other media outlets. Zing!

**- Ken Bazinet**

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PRESIDENT POTTY-MOUTH!

Barack Obama didn't unleash any expletives on the campaign trail today in Knoxville, Iowa. But he confessed to the crowd here that he has plenty of naughty words in his repertoire.

When a voter asked Obama to explain how he's different from Republican Mitt Romney, the senator laughed.

"That’s a long list," he replied. "Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He is taller than me."

He continued, "I was listening to an interview this morning where he said, somebody asked him has he ever cursed, and he said, ‘Well, of course, but not the real harsh ones.’ I have to tell you I’ve used some really harsh curse words."

And if that wasn't clear enough, the senator, sporting a mischevious grin, clarified, "the really good ones, the juicy ones."

Unfortunately, an aide declined to provide the Daily News with a list of those "juicy" words. The aide urged this reporter to use his imagination.

**- Michael Saul**

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EDWARDS CAMPS ASKS WHY OBAMA UPPED ATTACKS

An upbeat Edwards campaign, boasting today that thousands of contributors are helping to hit a $1.5 million fundraising goal leading up to the Iowa caucuses, is questioning motives behind Team Barack increasing its attacks on the ex-North Carolina senator in the past week.

Bolstered by a new poll [that has Edwards ahead in Iowa](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/23940.html) and [another that has him within striking distance](http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2948587520071230?feedTy...), his campaign is now pointing to [an online article in the left wing bible The Nation](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15) that suggests Edwards' surge is giving the Illinois senator severe heartburn.

"Every poll since Christmas shows us moving up," Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz told The Mouth just minutes ago.

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RISQUE BIB-NESS

Barack Obama encountered profanity on the campaign trail tonight.....on a baby's bib.

During an evening stop at George's Pizza and Steakhouse in Fairfield, Iowa, Obama walked through the restaurant, greeting patrons, making small talk, cooing over the infants.

It was all par for the course on the trail until Obama got to the back table, where he found a boy wearing a bib that read "Nice T-ts. Can I try one?"

"Oh my goodness," Obama exclaimed, upon spotting the bib. "My goodness!"

"Did we get a picture of this?" the Illinois senator asked.

"We're going to have to censor this," he joked, motioning to cover the bib with his hand.

Someone at the table helpfully shouted out, "You can just blur it out."

Oh my.

**- Michael Saul**

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HILLARY TEAS OFF (UPDATED, AGAIN)

Hillary Clinton may have ducked the chance to hit back at Barack Obama’s jab that her world affairs experience amounted to chatting over tea.

Turns out, she just needed a day to steep.

Clinton fired back in Dubuque tonight, telling a crowd of hundreds that as First Lady she was sent to all the worst places where they didn’t want to send Bubba.

“We used to say in the White House that if a place is too dangerous, too small or too poor, send the First Lady.”

She said she was the first high-level American to go to Bosnia after the Dayton peace accord.

“We landed in one of those cork screw landings and ran out because they said there might be sniper fire – I don’t remember an offering me tea on the tarmac,” she said with an archly emphasized "tea."

Judging from the “oooohs” from the audience, they got it.

**Update:** It appears Clinton visited Bosnia in March 1996 with [Sinbad and Sheryl Crow ](http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE3D61139F935A15750C0A...)who were on a USO tour.

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