Japan Spotlight
March 11, 2011
Impressive as China's economic accomplishments over the past generation have been, new demographic realities may ultimately force us to revise today's received wisdom about the future of "China's rise."
In many of today's important "emerging markets," demographic pressures may constrain economic growth more significantly than people may think.
A state banquet was scene to a triumph of sorts for a newly assertive, and more nakedly anti-American, strain in Chinese foreign policy.
Poverty will always exist, compared to others, but we cannot deny that quality of life, on a global level, has improved.
China has grown at a more rapid tempo than any country in history and its demographic outlook has changed dramatically.
Twenty years from now, due to demographic pressures, Western economies will have stagnating populations, shrinking workforces, and ballooning social-spending commitments.
It is apparent that the future global economy will not be able to rely on the kind of demographic inputs that helped fuel growth in the era before the current global recession.
Despite widespread hope that persistent poverty could be solved, all too many contemporary locales have managed to "achieve" records of long-term economic failure in our modern era.
The changing demographic profiles of the major Asian powers will directly affect the ability of these states to increase their power and extend their influence internationally.
Current History
October 13, 2010
A shrinking population coupled with a lower life expectancy, as is the case in Russia and other post-Soviet societies, may prove detrimental to economic growth and well being.
Successful social security policy for Russia, consequently, will depend upon much more than social programmes alone: it will require the reduction of mortality rates for working-age individuals, the revitalization of higher education, and fundamental reform of the country's institutions and economic policies.
Our official poverty measure is measuring the wrong thing.
Nicht nur die Bankenkrise, auch der Alterungsprozess setzt die Regierungen unter Druck. In Analogie zu Banken-Stresstests drängen sich mit Blick auf die zukünftig schwerer werdenden sozialpolitischen Lasten demografische Stresstests auf.
WDA-HSG Discussion Paper Series on Demographic Issues
August 6, 2010
The financial turmoil convulsing the Eurozone and threatening global economic recovery are a result of rising public sector debt, and these problems will likely be magnified in the coming future, especially when factoring in demographic trends.
Sub-Saharan Africa will not emerge as a global economic force unless there is a complete turnaround in its economic performance, but there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the shift to a new global development paradigm that would be far less dependent on natural resources.
The sorry history of nuclear negotiations with North Korea demonstrates that the international community has absolutely no reason to assume the current North Korean regime will voluntarily denuclearize.
Even though it currently looks like a daunting and risky prospect, the ultimate objective must be a unified, democratic, market-oriented Korea that is allied with the United States.
South Africa will likely face a number of challenges due to the effects of its AIDS-related excess mortality; the country needs programs that deliver a broader variety of services than are currently offered if it hopes to emerge as a prosperous regional power by midcentury.
WDA-HSG Discussion Paper Series on Demographic Issues
April 16, 2010
The Russian Federation has exhibited features which have resulted in a demographic crisis and less progressive depopulation in the last two decades.
Very bad times seem in store for North Korea as food prices are higher than ever and the economy risks hyperinflation.
Has the American way of life--the vision of an increasingly prosperous future--become a dream of the past?
Currency revaluation is on the verge of sparking a hyperinflation in North Korea.
KDI Review of the North Korean Economy
January 1, 2010
Nicholas Eberstadt explains the state of the North Korean economy in response to a series of seven questions.
China's "one child policy" has already driven China's birth rate below the replacement level in the name of accelerating the country's economic development.
With few born and far too many dying, Russia is caught in a demographic straitjacket.
An annotated syllabus on North Korean politics, culture, and economy.
Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah tackle Russia's grim demographic future, and what it portends for the West.
A new business model for foreign aid is the main hope--perhaps the only hope--for fixing a broken system.
If we only had vital statistics to go by, we might easily believe Russia is a country trapped in a prolonged and devastating war against health.
As Presidents Barack Obama and Lee Myung-bak prepare for their first official summit next week, the North Korean nuclear crisis is surely at the top of their agenda.
We must recognize North Korea for what it is, instead of what we want it to be.
Russia's current depopulation has been underway far longer than any previous population drop in Russian memory. It is not clear how this one is to be arrested or reversed.
Kim Jong Il's search for a successor could turn out to be bigger news than this weekend's missile launch.
Since 1992, Russia's human numbers have been progressively dwindling.
Washington lacks the statistical tools to assess--and thus address efficiently--the coming surge in need.
Obama must put pressure on the United Nations Population Fund to concentrate on the health of women and babies and to stop wasting money on wrongheaded population-control schemes.
The Bush administration's policyfailed inNorth Korea.
The new president cannot afford to ignore Asia.
AEI Online
November 12, 2008
Little has changed in the way the federal government measures poverty since 1965.
U.S. foreign aid needs a new business model that fits the realities of today's global economic picture.
Russia's economic ambitions are at odds with its population trend.
Little has changed in the way the federal government measures poverty since 1965.
Is the stability of an internationally criminal, cruelly dictatorial, nuclear-weapons-equipped North Korea really somethingthatshould valued above all conceivable alternatives?
Sex-selective abortion is changing the demographics of entire countries; a moral campaign must be waged against it.
South Korea'sdecade-longexperiment in economic diplomacy with North Korea has proved to be a failure.
Europe can solve its demographic crisis by unlocking the value of health.
Alarming demographic and healthtrends make it difficult for Russia to propel much-needed economic growth and development.
With the U.S.-ROK alliance in question, the United States must assert its military posture, maintain relations with Japan, defend sea lines of communication, and maintain a role in Asia.
AEI Online
January 9, 2008
The December 2007 presidential election in South Korea presages a sea change in that key U.S. ally's policies toward North Korea.
Unseemly talks with Kim Jong II pose a security threat to theUnited States and itsallies.
Last week's presidential election in South Korea presages a sea change in that key U.S. ally's policies toward North Korea.
With the U.S.-ROK Alliance in question, the United States must assert its military posture, maintain relations with Japan, defend sea lines of communication, and maintain a role in Asia.
The termination of the U.S.-South Korean alliance would prove harmful to South Korea.
AEI Online
September 19, 2007
China would do well to abolish its disastrous "One-Child Policy."
With a shrinking working-age population,there will be no one left totake care of the country's retirees.
With a shrinking working-age population, who will take care of the country's retirees?
Washington Profile, the only Russian-language information agency based in Washington, D.C., interviews Nicholas Eberstadt about Russia's demographic decline, heath-care problems, and plans to increase birth rate.
There is no clear evidence to support the trendy fearthat global population increases are out of control and need to be "stabilized."
A new UN report wrongly urges governments to curb supposed overpopulation problems.
America is exceptional for many reasons; among them, childbearing patterns and immigration absorption.
How drastically will demographic trends affect Asia in the coming decades?
AlthoughEurope's population is aging, the continent need not become a glorious rest home or a genteel but fading open-air museum. There is another way.
AEI Online
April 30, 2007
What will be the effect of Western Europe's declining birthrate on population?
Europa droht wirtschaftlich zunehmend gegenüber den USA zurückzufallen, auch aus demografischen Gründen.
Citizens of the former superpower are dying in catastrophic numbers. For very little, we could prove they have not been forgotten.
If the American moment passes, or U.S. power in other ways declines, it will notbe because of demography.
Western Europe isin a demographic declinedue to low birthrates and an ever aging population.
The six-party agreement in Beijing on North Korea's nuclear programs was a strategic blunder masquerading as a diplomatic triumph.
How would an underground railroad help North Korea and its citizens?
Since before the revolution, America has considered itself exceptional.
What is the world’s most worrisome and destabilizing nuclear-proliferation hotspot these days?
Does the U.S. poverty rate accurately describe trends and patterns in the condition that most Americans would think of as poverty?
Over the coming generation it is entirely likely that demographic trends are going to change the Asia-Pacific region in unprecedented and absolutely revolutionary ways
United Nations General Assembly Third Committee
December 6, 2006
Weare witnessing the consequences of the fateful collisionofson preference, prenatal sex determination technology for gender-based abortion, and declining fertility levels.
Aquarter century has passed since the publication of "The Health Crisis in the USSR."
Economic Conference on Demography, Growth and Wellbeing
November 30, 2006
Was the last century's "population explosion" driven by a reduction in morality?
Haiti will be lost without an inspired global effort that goes far beyond the traditional pathways of better education and agriculture.
Until Haiti can begin to look beyond its past to its culture of survival, it will be unable to achieve the modernity its people deserve.
What do we come home learning from a brief fact-finding sojourn to Haiti? In a sentence: Security comes first.
With Pyongyang's announcement to "conduct a nuclear test" to "bolster its war deterrent for self-defense," the world has been given yet another reminder of the North Korean game plan.
America's poverty rates don't accurately measure poverty today.
Without a clearer sense of where we stand, how we got here and where we are headed, most initiatives aimed at reducing poverty in the United States will be needlessly ineffective.
America’s most relied-upon metric for charting a course in our national effort to reduce and eliminate poverty appears to offer unreliable, and indeed increasingly misleading, soundings on where we are today, where we have come, and where we seem to be headed.
While many parts of the world have joined in the profound international integration that has occurred in the postwar era, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has maintained a distinctly bellicose and autarkic international posture since its founding in 1948.
This paper attempts to use available demographic data to cast light on trends indicative of, or potentially supportive of, an accretion of security threats from "the U.S. southern security perimeter."
Further Bush administration weakness in the face of North Korea's actions could seriously damage U.S. security arrangements in the Korean peninsula and throughout Asia.
North Korea's missile launch reveals that theKimg Jong Iland his inner circle are ready to ratchet up their confrontation with "the imperialists" to a new and still more dangerous level.
Rapid and pronounced population aging represents a highly uneven, largely unappreciated, and as yet almost entirely undiscounted long-term risk for the world's emerging markets.
North Korea's neighbors have suffered broader economic costs, and lost economic opportunities, as a direct consequence of Pyongyang’s security policies and practices.
What are the major strategic trends in global population?
For decades, the world has been haunted by ominous and recurrent reports of impending demographic doom.
I first met Peter Bauer in October 1977. At the time I was 21, and very Left.
Council on Foreign Relations
December 22, 2005
The economic tragedy that is post-colonial African history, indeed, arguably constitutes the twentieth century’s single greatest developmental failure.
Wall Street Journal
November 15, 2005
Will the aging of the Third World have unanticipated spillover effects for the world economy? The answer is not yet clear--but it is none too early to begin asking the question.
AEI Online
September 30, 2005
North Korea's latest agreement on denuclearization will allow its government to continue workign on nuclear weapons and to isolate South Korea.
Wall Street Journal
September 21, 2005
The latestjoint statement affirms all of the "rewards-for-freeze" precepts that helped to finance the survival of the North Korean state--and the development of nuclear weaponry--in the earlier 1994 accord.
New York Times
September 9, 2005
For nowwe should recognize that America has already achieved far more success in the war against want than our sorry poverty rate can admit.
Dallas News
August 21, 2005
Clearly, the crisis of the family is not just a "black thing." In practically all of today's rich, free societies, the family is in trouble.
Policy Review
August 9, 2005
If the North American fertility divergence continues, it may become an example of how countries can converge at the macroeconomic level while diverging at the micro level.
Time Magazine Asia
August 8, 2005
The six-party talks are no way to convince North Korea to give up its nukes.
AEI Online
August 3, 2005
The South Korean government seems indifferent to the plight of the tens of thousands of North Koreans who have escaped the Kim Jong Il regime.
Korea Times
July 13, 2005
Response to aKorea Timesstory that misrepresentsEberstadt's views on North Korea.
Los Angeles Times
July 12, 2005
Unchecked, HIV and AIDS will continue to spread through Islamic countries. No longer a matter of humanitarian assistance, the pandemicis nowan importantglobal security issue.
Leaders in Muslim countries who have denied AIDS must acknowledge the threat or risk losing their community of believers to a global plague.
Chatham House
June 22, 2005
This presentationwas delivered at the“Advancing Economic Growth: Investing in Health” conference at the Chatham House in London,June 22-23, 2005.
The National Interest
June 15, 2005
For America and its allies, the costs and dangers of failing to make the world safe from North Korea are incalculably higher and more expensive than confronting Kim Jong-il's regime.
National Bureau of Asian Research
June 8, 2005
The newest phase of the global AIDS pandemic is the unfolding of the contagion across the great Islamic expanse.
Weekly Standard
June 6, 2005
South Korea has become the home of freedom in the peninsula. Now the task is to extend that freedom to the North.
The greatest demographic challenge facing Europe today is not population decline, but the unfinished task of making loyal Europeans out of all its immigrants.
The Public Interest
April 20, 2005
Much of the anti-natal and neo-Malthusian literature reveals an appalling ignorance about real human beings--especially poor ones.
The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
April 20, 2005
This essay examines the potentialities for a still-socialist DPRK economic policy, international financial assistance, and North Korean economic performance.
Far Eastern Economic Review
March 21, 2005
There may be considerably more scope for applying pressure to Pyongyang today than many appreciate becausePyongyang has viablealternatives to its current economic course.
This presentation covers the poverty rate as a predictor of socioeconomic progress and household consumption.
Washington Post
March 1, 2005
Kim Jong Il is doing his best to make the world safe for the DPRK. Our task, by contrast, is to make the world safe from the DPRK. This will be a difficult, expensive, and dangerous undertaking.
AEI Online
February 18, 2005
The United States and its allies have exacerbated the danger that North Korea poses to international security by failing to sanction Pyongyang meaningfully.
The North Korean government did not opt to join the world’s nuclear weapons club suddenly, on a bizarre and inexplicable whim. To the contrary: last week’s announcement represents the predictable culmination of decades of methodical progress on a multifaceted program of weapons of mass destruction.
Last week's announcement represents the predictable culmination of decades of progress on a multifaceted program of weapons of mass destruction.
Wall Street Journal
February 14, 2005
The ever more menacing North Korean nuclear program has in practice encountered only token resistance from the United States and others.
Can the economic system of the Democractic People's Republic of Korea be successfully reformed?
The Public Interest
January 1, 2005
The Russian Federation today is in the grip of a steadily tightening mesh of serious demographic problems, for which the term "crisis" is no overstatement.
AEI Online
December 1, 2004
The United States must develop a new approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis, sincewe will not likely talk North Korea out of its nuclear weapons program.
Time Asia
November 29, 2004
Emboldened by his reelection, President George W. Bush will turn up the heat on North Korea.
The Weekly Standard
November 29, 2004
If North Korea's threat to America is greater four years from now than today, that will be a George W. Bush administration legacy.
Foresight Magazine
November 11, 2004
The North Korean regime will not be “talked” out of its nuclear weapons program.
Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
November 1, 2004
How do human numbers affect the capability of governments to influence events beyond their borders or affect the disposition of a country's interactions with outside actors?
One of the biggest challenges for European security and stability lies in assimilating immigrants into European societies.
Policy Review
October 1, 2004
Can North Korea survive--as a distinct regime, an autonomous state, a specific political-economic system, and a sovereign country?
AEI book forum
September 27, 2004
Over the foreseeable future, population replacement will be taking place--although not in the sense that demographers typically assign to the term.
The Times
September 23, 2004
Russia has little chance of narrowing the income gap with theEuropean Unionunless it also closes the yawning health gap that separates Russians from the rest of Europe.
SAIS Review
September 1, 2004
Russia is at the brink of a steep demographic decline--a peacetime population hemorrhage framed by a collapse of the birth rate and a catastrophic surge in the death rate.
Chapter in Strategic Asia 2004-05
September 1, 2004
The author discusses energy security, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and science and technology in Asia, as well as alternative outcomes to the North Korean nuclear crisis.
The Public Interest
September 1, 2004
A number of influential recent studies purport to show that inequality in income--not poverty per se--has detrimental health consequences.
NBR Analysis
September 1, 2004
The Russian Federation today faces the unprecedented dual challenge of simultaneously reversing the plummeting birth rates and skyrocketing mortality rates of the 1990s.
The most recent nuclear crisis with North Korea raises further questions about its leaders' ability to manage crises.
AEI Online
August 20, 2004
Sub-replacement fertility rates are becoming the global norm with the exception of the United States.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
August 5, 2004
Russia has little chance of narrowing the income gap with the European Unionunless it also closes the yawning health gap that separates Russians from the rest of Europe.
Kennan Insitute and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 22, 2004
This speechexamines population movement, mortality rates, and life expectancy in Russia.
Kennan Institute and Asia Program, Wilson Center
July 22, 2004
The author examines population movement, mortality rates, and life expectancy in Russia.
The author addresses health concerns in Africa and the effects of disease on demographic trends.
Iraq Watch Roundtable
July 18, 2004
Although no weapons of mass destruction have been found inside Iraq’s borders,we mustask whether the war is having a positive or negative impact on the worldwide spread of these arms.
Watch on the West
July 1, 2004
Whileotherdeveloped areas gradually drop off the roster of the world's major population centers, the United States actually rises, from fourth largest in 1950 to third largest in 2000.
AEI World Forum
June 19, 2004
Research and development promises the potential for recasting the cost-benefit calculus for HIV/AIDS treatment for low-income populations.
Appeasement failed with Adolf Hitler, and it will not work with North Korea's Kim Jong Il.
China will be the first great power in Asia to suffer from atwenty-first century "bride shortage."
Difficulties facing China's aging population include a lack of a national pension system and limited familial resources.
AEI-CFE conference
May 20, 2004
Massachusetts Avenue Development Seminar
May 13, 2004
The author examines climate data, income, and economic indicators to determine if foreign aid produces desired results.
AEI Henry Wendt Lecture
May 11, 2004
The author introduces Jeffrey G. Williamson of Harvard University, who researches political economy and world mass migration.
Conference in tribute to Peter Bauer
May 8, 2004
The author discussesPeter Tamas Bauer's assessment of the "population problem" and his contributions to the field of development economics.
Wall Street Journal
April 28, 2004
The author reviews The Empty Cradle by Phillip Longman.
CSIS/CASS Conference on Preparing for China’s Aging Challenge
April 19, 2004
The author examines future economic problems in China, includingthe AIDS crisisand the growing shortage of females.
Asian Wall Street Journal
April 8, 2004
North Korea has not even begun to tinker with the macro policies, or promote the micro institutions, that would permit a China- or Vietnam-style export response.
With the recent vote to impeach President Roh Mu Hyun on dubious grounds, South Korean democracy once again seems imperiled.
South Korea's impeachment crisis exposes the sordid opportunism of its politics.
South Korea's current travails with President Roh Roh Mu Hyun will reinforce North Korea's appetite for an unconditional Korean reunification--on the North's terms.
North Korea Review
March 1, 2004
There is no coalescence around a strategy for North Korea, in the United States or among its partners in Northeast Asia. The situation is tilting by the day in an incalculable direction.
Asian Wall Street Journal
February 16, 2004
How can we use population indicators to anticipate, with some reasonable hope of accuracy, the impact of yet-unfolding demographic forces on the balance of international power?
Washington Post
February 13, 2004
Population trends and demographic characteristics in Russia today are severely--and adversely--altering the realm of the possible for that country and its people.
DPRK Briefing Book (Nautilus Institute)
February 12, 2004
The notion that the Kim regime has absolutely no intention of ever giving up its nuclear capability--at any price, for any reason--is too terrible to face.
AEI event on North Korea
February 12, 2004
Can the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea survive--as a distinct regime, an autonomous state, a specific political-economic system, and a sovereign country?
AEI Event on North Korea
February 12, 2004
There can be neither a settlement onWMDs nor demobilization of theNorth Koreanmilitary until and unlessNorth Koreanormalizes relations with South Korea.
Policy Review
February 1, 2004
How can we use population indicators to anticipate, with some reasonable hope of accuracy, the impact of yet-unfolding demographic forces on the balance of international power?
AEI Online
February 1, 2004
Russian political leaders have focused on trying to increase birth rates, but urgency must be applied to diminish mortality rates and to respond to health threats, including HIV/AIDS.
Time Asia
January 19, 2004
Pyongyang's promise to disarm is just a cunning financial ploy.
Foreign Policy Research Institute
December 1, 2003
Life is full of surprises for specialists in population studies because the predictive powers of demography and population science are somewhat limited.
Jerusalem Post
October 31, 2003
Hopes are still high that North Korea can eventually be talked into trading away, or selling off, its nuclear program. North Korea's money flows cast a somber light on that prospect.
Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development
September 23, 2003
Progress toward a diplomatic resolution of the nuclear impasse cannot be expected without fundamental changes in outlook and policy on the part of Pyongyang's leadership.
Washington Post
August 26, 2003
North Korea is entirely unlikely to be talked out of its nuclear weapons program.
Nicholas Eberstadt's July 31, 2003, testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Senate Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs
July 31, 2003
These graphs were presented at the hearing.
Milken Institute Review
June 1, 2003
A look at China's economy suggests that the country is particularly vulnerable to HIVAIDS and other epidemic illnesses.
Subcommittee on Financial Management, the Budget, and International Security
May 20, 2003
DPRK involvement in illicit activities, far from being an aberration, is instead part and parcel of its basic approach to diplomacy and economic policy.
Kim Jong Il's erratic moves strengthen the hawks' case for regime change.
Encyclopedia of Modern Asia
May 7, 2003
Recallibrating the U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance
May 2, 2003
Kim Jong Il's capacity to stir up trouble will be instantly revitalized if the U.S. goes to war with Iraq.
Duke University
March 3, 2003
Nicholas Eberstadt's March 3, 2002, Powerpoint presentation at Duke University.
Because North Korea is uniquely dependent on foreign aid and illicit trade, under American leadership, Northeast Asia's powers can effectively squeeze Kim Jong Il's regime economically.
Time Asia
February 28, 2003
How do you nix Kim Jong Il's atomic ambition? Squeeze him economically.
Los Angeles Times
February 2, 2003
The Bush administration would be well advised to devote more of its anti-AIDS energies into rousing these three governments to embrace HIV strategies of their own.
AEI Online
February 1, 2003
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's ineptitude as a leader is what makes the present crisis withthat countryso scary.
Time Asia
January 24, 2003
Kim Jong Il, for his part, is alive and well but prone to egregious lapses of judgment, especially in a crunch.
Business Week Online
January 20, 2003
Wall Street Journal
January 17, 2003
Encyclopedia of Population
January 1, 2003
Just before 1989-91, over a third of humanity lived under communist regimes,representing a variety of cultures, ethnicities, levels of material attainment, and demographic structures.
Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain
January 1, 2003
Encyclopedia of Population
January 1, 2003
Wall Street Journal
December 18, 2002
So long as the government in Seoul stakes its reputation on lessening the North Korean threat--and insists on having made signal strides in doing so--the South Korean public will rightly wonder what exactly U.S. troops are still doing in their country.
Pyongyang sees itself as a state engaged in an international zero-sum martial-mercantile contest: Pyongyang must in this view either give or receive tribute.
Asahi Shimbun
November 7, 2002
HIV/AIDS pandemic in Eurasia is primed to do the most damage.
In the decades ahead, the center of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic is set to shift from Africa to Eurasia.
AEI Online
November 1, 2002
The enormous number of people infected with HIV in Russia, China, and India is poised to grow even larger, thus altering the economic potential and military power of Eurasia's largest states.
AEI Online
October 31, 2002
Detailed results for the article "The Future of AIDS" in Foreign Affairs.
United Press International
October 31, 2002
The Bush administration has been given the opportunity to recast its policy toward North Korea, a policy that is no longer beholden to an agreement struck nearly a decade ago, and whose efficacy had been in question for several years now.
ICAS Fall Symposium
October 11, 2002
Will the DPRK move towards a more economically pragmatic and economically successful future?
The National Interest
October 1, 2002
The Mutual Defense Treaty cannot count on the continued support from both the South Korean and American publics that is necessary to sustain it.
The Weekly Standard
September 16, 2002
On the crucial issue of understanding world population trends, the U.S. government, the United Nations, European bureaucrats, and Third World elites agree more than they disagree.
AEI Online
September 1, 2002
Demographics experts have failed to note the falling prices of natural resources and the health explosion that has led to a huge expansion of human capital.
The Washington Times
June 30, 2002
Julian L. Simon began to force a fundamental rethinking of the deeply ingrained Malthusian pessimism about world population, global resources, and the geo-environment.
Korea and World Affairs
April 1, 2002
Due to fundamental defects in the method by which the U.S. poverty rate is calculated, it is difficult to accurately assess living standards at any point in time and long term trends.
The Washington Post
February 17, 2002
the Weekly Standard
February 11, 2002
In contemporary political debate, there is no surer way to discredit and delegitimize a policy than to establish that it injures women and children.
Korea and World Affairs
January 1, 2002
As the war against terror began to unfold, South Korea and the United States appeared to be working at cross-purposes, and as the campaign progressed, these signs of divergence became gradually more evident.
Strategic Asia, 2002-03
January 1, 2002
In part, today's relative calm can be explained by the character and tenor of relations among the great Pacific powers in the Korean peninsula and beyond it.
Environmental Education
December 1, 2001
Foreign Policy
November 1, 2001
The Weekly Standard
October 1, 2001
The Korean Journal of International Studies
October 1, 2001
National Review Online
August 9, 2001
Fertility is going down because we don’t know the future of human fertility.
Addressing the question of the health and mortality impact of the restrictions on U.S. international population assistance known as the “Mexico City policy”.
Foreign Policy
July 1, 2001
The Washington Times
May 23, 2001
Developments in the Korean peninsula present Washington with opportunities, but such contingencies require long-range thinking by policy-makers.
The Washington Times
April 6, 2001
The Malthusian calculus does not consign our species to brutish subsistence, because our species can expand its resource base and temper its immediate environment.
The Family in America
April 1, 2001
Population projections from the United Nations suggest that many countries face a decline in population and an unprecedented "aging explosion."
The Washington Post
March 18, 2001
Global population growth will decelerate markedly over the coming generation.
The Wall Street Journal
March 9, 2001
Foreign Policy
March 1, 2001
After decades of struggling to contain the global population explosion, the world confronts rapidly decreasing birthrates and declining life spans.
Asian Wall Street Journal
January 15, 2001
The George W. Bush administration would do well to construct more realistic, less romantic, policies toward North Korea than its predecessor.
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
January 1, 2001
Korean and World Affairs
December 1, 2000
Asian Survey
November 1, 2000
International Journal of Korean Studies
October 1, 2000
The Washington Times
August 27, 2000
Over the past generation sub-Saharan Africahas suffered prolonged and virtually continentwide economic failure, marked by pervasive economic retrogression and even reversals in social development.
Although North Korea is establishing or reviving diplomatic relations with a number of other countries, including South Korea, the West should continue to approach North Korea warily.
The Wall Street Journal
June 19, 2000
For the stability of Northeast Asia, it is imperative for governments to move from the intellectual sand trap from which a Korean peninsula without the DPRK cannot be seen.
International Economy
May 1, 2000
Australian Financial Review
April 14, 2000
Korea'sDMZ is the most dangerous flashpoint on earth.
Marriage & Families
January 1, 2000
Milken Institute Review
January 1, 2000
Problems of Post-Communism
January 1, 2000
Lynne Rienner Publishers
January 1, 2000
Chapter 6 in The U.S. and the Two Koreas: A New Triangle, edited by Tong Whan Park.
San Diego Union-Tribune
October 17, 1999
Wall Street Journal
October 12, 1999
AEI Online
October 12, 1999
The development and the remarkable advances that made world population six billion possible should be viewed as a triumph.
Digital Chosun Ilbo
September 13, 1999
Reports that American and North Korean negotiators have emerged from six days of missile talks in Berlin with a "breakthrough" accord are being greeted today with relief and elation.
National Interest
September 1, 1999
Throughout its tenure, the DPRK has demonstrated its continuing capacity to surprise, usually in unpleasant ways.
Engineering News Review
July 5, 1999
Policy Review
June 1, 1999
For Russia and its people, the nightmare of Soviet totalitarianism has come to an end, only to be followed by a phenomenon much more familiar in Russian history: a “time of troubles.”
Wall Street Journal
March 23, 1999
North Koreans describe the deliberations between the two states more honestly than the Americans do.
AEI Online
March 23, 1999
Although Clinton administration hope that the deal will keep the North Korean nuclear program in check, the deal is more likely to help sustain and advance the program.
Milken Institute Review
January 1, 1999
China's demographic patterns will be driven by long life expectancy andlowfertility.
AEI Online
January 1, 1999
The communist regime in North Korea will be a menace to its neighbors and to the United States--as well as to the population it rules--as long as it exists.
National Review
December 31, 1998
The essence of the “North Korean crisis” is in fact the North Korean regime: its outlook, behavior, and intentions.
Korea And World Affairs
December 1, 1998
Washington Times
November 27, 1998
South Korea's crisis of international liquidity have altered not only the economic but also the political landscape of the Korean peninsula, making possible a new direction for North-South interactions.
School of Advanced International Studies
November 1, 1998
Philanthropy
November 1, 1998
Committee On International Relations, U.S. House Of Representatives
September 24, 1998
The National Interest
September 1, 1998
Washington Quarterly
April 1, 1998
Demography plays a vital role in international relations.
The Weekly Standard
December 22, 1997
AEI Online
December 3, 1997
International data on health and mortality today point to the emergence of very serious “micro-environmental problems” in different regions of the world.
Korea and World Affairs
December 1, 1997
Korean Journal of National Unification
December 1, 1997
New Republic
November 10, 1997
Unicef’s medical obtusenessis a cruel manifestation of bureaucratic inefficiency, a product of blinding ideology, a simple human tragedy, or some combination of the three.
Washington Times
November 9, 1997
Review of The Two Koreas, by Don Oberdorfer.
AEI Online
October 16, 1997
One set of projections by the United Nations of current demographic trends suggests that the world's population may peak in the middle of the next century and then steadily decline.
Washington Times
September 4, 1997
Have U.N. development efforts really accomplished their aims?
The Public Interest
September 1, 1997
Population and Development Review
June 1, 1997
Review essay on Moynihan's Miles to Go.
Weekly Standard
March 17, 1997
Review of The Road to Hell: The Ravaging Effects of Foreign Aid and International Charity, by Michael Maren.
Foreign Affairs
March 1, 1997
United States should take the lead in anticipating and expediting the return of a united Korea.
New York Times
February 16, 1997
Review of Hungry Ghosts by Jasper Becker.
Communist Economies & Economic Transformation
January 1, 1997
AEI Online
November 25, 1996
Efforts to combat hunger are retarded by three misconceptions: exaggerating the problem andoverstating the threat posed by population growth..
Parliamentarians Day
November 15, 1996
Why do we live in a world in which millions upon millions of children and adults suffer from the scourges of extreme hunger and malnutrition?
AEI Online
October 7, 1996
A more effective development assistance policy would promote economic freedom--both as a good unto itself and as a stimulus to prosperity.
U.S. Senate Committe on Foreign Relations
September 19, 1996
Wall Street Journal
September 9, 1996
Korea and World Affairs
September 1, 1996
New York Times
August 4, 1996
Review of The Return of Thrift by Phillip Longman.
Wall Street Journal
July 22, 1996
Korea Journal of Defense Analysis
June 1, 1996
Weekly Standard
May 27, 1996
Until American “development assistance” policies can assist in development, AID officials had best get used to revising their “ranking” within the “donor community” downward.
Washington Times
May 8, 1996
Review of The Good Life and Its Discontents by Robert Samuelson.
Asian Wall Street Journal
May 2, 1996
Wall Street Journal
April 22, 1996
Although it was not even calculated until the 1960s, the “poverty rate” is now one of America’s most familiar--and politically significant--statistical indicators.
Moscow Times
March 13, 1996
More than most peoples, Russians are familiar with the phenomenon of the state-sponsored lie.
Washington Times
March 11, 1996
For advocates of Third World population control--or as they now prefer to say, “stabilizing world population”--the resort to scare tactics in debates and policy battles, is nothing new.
Washington Times
February 26, 1996
AEI Online
February 26, 1996
Despite tremendous material advances and a vast augmentation of national wealth since the 1920s, America's social problems are far more acute in the 1990s than they were during the Great Depression.
My assignment is to discuss the problems of poverty and poverty alleviation in the modern United States.
Washington Times
November 5, 1995
Review of The War against the Poor: The Underclass and Antipoverty Policy by Herbert Gans.
World Affairs
September 1, 1995
Review of Naitre, Vivre et Mourir en URSS, 1917-1991 by Alain Blum.
Wall Street Journal
June 26, 1995
It is time for the World Bank to begin an orderly transition to private ownership.
The National Interest
June 1, 1995
Population and Development Review
June 1, 1995
Review of Population and Development and Population Policy.
Just what is “population policy”?
Washington Times
March 13, 1995
How does one explain the upcoming U.N. World Conference on Women in Beijing--a capital that has championed coercive abortions, and revived female infanticide?
Wall Street Journal
October 7, 1994
Review of Troubled Tiger by Mark Clifford.
Wall Street Journal
September 6, 1994
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