Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Trump collapses

Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he's dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

As Trump got more and more exposure over the last month Republicans didn't just decide they weren't interested in having him as their nominee- they also decided they flat don't like him. Only 34% of GOP voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump to 53% who view him in a negative light.

Trump really made hay out of the 'birther' issue and as the resonance of that has declined, so has his standing. In February we found that 51% of Republican primary voters thought Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Now with the release of his birth certificate only 34% of GOP partisans fall into that camp, and Trump's only in fifth place with that now smaller group of the electorate at 9%.

Beyond the Trump angle the other thing particularly notable in these numbers is that they confirm Romney and Huckabee starting to pull away from Gingrich and Palin. Most of our polling over the course of 2010 basically showed a four way tie at the top with that quartet of contenders but over the last few months a clearer divide has started to show up in both our state and national polling with Huckabee and Romney more consistently outpolling Gingrich and Palin.

We also looked at a fair number of alternate Republican universes in which various candidates don't actually end up making the race. With Trump out Romney leads Huckabee 21-20 with Gingrich at 15% and Palin at 14%. With Trump and Huckabee out Romney is tops at 24% to 20% for Gingrich, 17% for Palin, and 12% for Paul. With Trump and Palin out Huckabee has the advantage with 24% to Romney's 22%, and Gingrich's 20%. And with none of Trump, Huckabee, and Palin running Romney gets 28% to 26% for Gingrich, 12% for Paul, and 11% for Bachmann.

To put that in a simpler form if Huckabee runs it's between him and Romney right now, and if Huckabee doesn't run it's between Romney and Gingrich right now. And there's plenty of time for other folks to work their way into that mix.

Full results here

31 comments:

Winston said...

good. he is worthless and not a conservative

Anonymous said...

Obama timed the release of his long form brilliantly.

Anonymous said...

And this surprises no conservatives, but confounds the liberals. Film at eleven!

I Am Iron Man said...

Fickle, desperate Republican voters.

Trump's quick rise & fall shows how desperate they are to latch onto anyone... anyone but the exceedingly terrible field that the Republicans have out there right now.

I'm feeling very good about Obama's chances in 2012 right now.

Dustin Ingalls said...

There's still political space for a Trump-like candidate to take off, someone who'll appeal to the paranoiac hysteria and anti-Obama sentiment of the 34% who still think Obama wasn't born here. Those voters are now divided almost evenly, but Trump topped Huckabee and Palin 37-13 with them last time. So there's room to make up a lot of ground by appealing to that base...and I mean base. Could be Bachmann or Palin, both of whom have twice as much support from the remaining birthers as the non-birthers.

Anonymous said...

Any poll that doesn't include Herman Cain, declared candidate and winner of the South Carolina Republican Primary is Racist.

Anonymous said...

It shows how much the regular run of the mill GOP primary voter has ZERO clue on what they actually want. Trump is about as far from the tea party and GOP as one can get. I hope he gets in, he will fall even further.

classicliberal2 said...

A shortcming of this reporting on the poll (not the poll itself) is that, in discussing birthers, it only includes the 34% who take the hardest position--those who flat-out say Obama wasn't born in the U.S. Reading the pdf of the results, however, reveals that an additional 18% of Republicans say they aren't sure he was born in the U.S.. Those are birthes, as well. Even after the release of the long-form, birtherism is still a majority proposition in the GOP.

Anonymous said...

" Any poll that doesn't include Herman Cain, declared candidate and winner of the South Carolina Republican Primary is Racist."

What do you expect from racist, racebaiters?

There time is a coming. And it is going to be excruciating. I intend to make it miserable for them. Over the top. Heck, I am an atheist and would even vote to make the Bible the Supreme Law of the Land if it would make Obot hypocrites miserable.

They asked for it and they are going to get it X 100000000.

Anonymous said...

the birth certificate controversy is mostly due to bad reporting. Hawaii has a different process than many states. PA would not accept my certificate of live birth when I went to get my drivers' license so the idea that even his long form says CERTIFICATE OF LIVE BIRTH across the top could be confusing. PA license center told me my certificate of live birth was like a souvenir that hospitals gave to parents and that I had to go get my actual birth certificate. My mother gave me my certificate of live birth saying, "here, you might need your "birth certificate"". There are two questions not mentioned by the media, 1 is the constitution states the president must be a natural born citizen, but not how proof is taken care of. 2) that Hawaii gives out a certificate of live birth when you ask for your birth certificate. I could see anyone who had to produce their "birth certificate" instead of "certificate of live birth" getting confused and thinking there was something funny going on.

RebeccaH said...

People are just voicing their momentary opinions right now. As the election gets closer, people will start to get serious, and I think they're waiting for a viable contender to come forward, someone who can persuade them that he (or she) can do right by the country. I don't think anybody ever thought Trump was a serious choice, despite the fact that they liked what he was saying.

Anonymous said...

Trump is not a Republican.
Huckabee is a big government Republican who wants to use the government to enforce his values on others.

President Obama should be easy to beat but if the Republicans want to try and impose a big government type on us I would rather have any liberal including Obama. I dislike how the liberals bankrupt the country and interfere but the big government Republicans are even worse.

Huckabee is probably one of the few Republicans Obama can beat.

Anonymous said...

@Iron Man, I hope all you progressives continue to feel that way....nothing for you to worry about...the Republicans have no chance at all...You can tell that obama agrees with you just by the way he acts...that's probably why he has a billion dollar campaign coffer, Why he is spending more tax payer money than every president we ever had COMBINED after complaining about Bush's spending!It's probably why, when he is tanking in the polls, he suddenly finds osama, how convenient! It's why is he not closing gitmo, not prosecuting the terrorists in civilian court, not getting out of Iraq, Afghanistan and is in Libya I'm sure it's why hasn't he come up with an immigration bill in 3 years (when he promised it in the first)...just a few of the many reasons he has nothing to worry about in 2012....cause progressive marxists like you don't care about being lied to!

Gary Trump said...

As a Trump myself, I feel that Donald has really done it this time. I would never vote for him.

Anonymous said...

I will vote for Donald Trump. Obama is horrible and every one who knows photoshop knows the Birth Certificate is FAKE look it up.

Anonymous said...

With Trump effectively out, that leaves a great opportunity for an independent with classic fiscal conservative/social moderate credentials to appeal to both D and R voters... like a Ross Perot type.

Does Bill Gates want to be President?? How about Martha Stewart?

I'm only half joking.

Anonymous said...

Donald Trump is a self-made man who worships his own creator. I think that President Obama's actions in ridding the world of bin Laden VS Trump's bullying and loud-mouthing with nothing to back him other than being on a hit television non-reality show got people thinking about what qualities they want in a president. The more thoughtful candidates among Republicans seem to be stepping to the fore: Romney and Huckabee.

At this moment, I don't care if the president was born on Mars, his bringing to a close an awful chaptewr in the hisptry of our nation is laudable and his demeanor through it all was admirable. Being told basically you don't exist even after producing a birth certificate is somethying monirities have been facing since before the birth of our nation.

Anonymous said...

Not mentioned in the synopsis: Favorability vs Unfavorability, where Huckabee blows everyone away, including Romney 37% to 23%. Stop searching for the answer that's right in front of your nose. Huckabee IS the best choice. Huckabee WILL defeat Obama. Huckabee 2012!

Anonymous said...

34% of GOP supporters still believe that Obama wasn't born in America, despite releasing his birth certificate. That says a lot about what kind of rational thinking goes on in the GOP now.

Anonymous said...

Trump is just a show pony with a big mouth, his arrogance is breathtaking to say the least..he has nothing to offer the American people.

Aussie Keith said...

The last person you guys want as President would be the Trumpster!

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm....that birth certificate in the long form is even more suspicious. Obama's mother's race is listed as caucasian....His father's race is listed as "AFRICAN"....African was not considered a race in early sixties America....Negro or Black would have been stated...this is a copy of the original....LMFAO....the United States was not PC in 1961...the idiots that created that birth certificate are so brainwashed with political correctness they couldnt bring themselves to use the "N" word on the forged certificate...LMFAO

The Interesting Times said...

I see this as good news for the GOP.

The Republicans have just had their Dean-style flameout of the season--and it's still 2011.

Whereas Dean imploded in the midst of the 2004 primary, leaving the Democrats scrambling to find a viable candidate and finally settling on the unimpressive John Kerry, the Republicans now have plenty of time to look for a replacement for their Once-ler.

The Interesting Times said...

BTW, it would be worthwhile to include Herman Cain in all your polls from now on.

He seems intent on declaring, and he was recently declared winner of the "first 2012 Republican primary debate" (which, admittedly, most of the big names skipped out on).

Anonymous said...

Show me Huckabee's birth certificate!

Anonymous said...

I LOVE this cast of anachronistic, intellectually stilted, cartoon characters the GOP has given us! It's going to be a laugh a minute!! I cannot WAIT for the debates; they are sitcoms!!

Dave said...

May I ask why Herman Cain was omitted from the poll?

Anonymous said...

THE ONLY MAN THAT CAN SAVE YOUR COUNTRY IS RON PAUL...

Anonymous said...

"His father's race is listed as "AFRICAN"....African was not considered a race in early sixties America....Negro or Black would have been stated..."

Negro or Black are words for African-Americans. Obama's father was AFRICAN. Like, from the continent Africa.

That said, I wish the republicans would hurry and up decide on a serious candidate who can actually force the democrats to reign in spending without this ridiculous temper-tantrum-in-the-middle-of-the grocery-store parade of showmanship Boehner and the Tea Party are doing.

Anonymous said...

Trump is a huge joke!

Andy Warhol Fan said...

Obama period is not so good.It is a long held and false assumption that ordinary citizens don't care about public policy.

 
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