A Box Of Chocolates

It is a pity Forrest Gump was never asked to elaborate on his views of Israeli politics. Had Robert Zemeckis added that dimension to his 1994 pseudo-epic, we might have been treated to yet another analogy featuring the now famous ‘box of chocolates’.

Indeed when it comes to Israeli politics and its subsequent elections - one never knows what one will get.

Following the apparent victory of Tzipi Livni’s Kadima party on Tuesday, most of the world awoke on Wednesday to the prospect of a Kadima-led coalition with Livni as the new Prime Minister. That’s how normal Democratic elections work, right.

Wrong.

As anyone following the situation this week can attest, navigating the maze of the Israeli election process is not unlike the Democratic Party Nomination cycle in the United States - a system rife with complications.

So here goes.

In order for an Israeli political party to win an outright victory to govern alone, they are required to capture over 50% of the total seats in the Israeli Parliament. As the Parliament (or Knesset) has a total of 120 representatives, it is therefore necessary for said political party to acquire a minimum of 61 seats.

So far so good.

In the case of the past week, both Kadima and Likud (the two leading parties in this election) fell well short of the required 61 seats to allow either a clear and autonomous victory. Early predictions put the total seats won by Kadima at 28, and Likud at 27. The ultra-right wing Yisrael Beitenu Party led by Avigdor Lieberman came in third, capturing  roughly 15 seats.

This is where it gets fuzzy.

In order for any party to form a government, its leader (i.e. Livni or Netanyahu) must demonstrate an ability to cobble together 61+ seats in the Knesset primarily through allying with rival parties in the formation of a ‘ruling coalition’.

So who has the best chance of making this happen?

As the fall of the Labour Party, and subsequent rise of far-right parties such as Shas and Yisrael Beitenu demonstrate, the Israeli political system is moving clearly to the right. With the large number of total seats in the hands of far-right parties (including Likud), it is very possible Benyamin Netanyahu will be viewed as the most likely candidate to form a majority coalition government.

Next week, President Shimon Peres will consult all 12 parties in the new parliament, and based on their feedback and party preferences, will choose Netanyahu or Livni to try to form a government. Incidently, the Israeli President is elected every 7 years, and while wearing an illustrious title, is more of a figure-head rather than a ruling Head of State.

So the election is not really a decisive election. And a winner is not really a winner. Well, not yet at least.

Perhaps it is simply best to avoid all this for now. Or as Mr. Gump would do, “Run Forrest, run…!”