Endgame

Looking through the latest news reports from Israel this morning, I am reminded of a few lines from Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot that seem especially poignant. In the opening scene of Beckett’s most famous play the two protagonists, Vladimir and Estragon, appear lost, mercurial and wholly unaware of their purpose or the fate that awaits them. In a fit of confusion, they angrily begin to question each other on their predicament - attempting in vain to validate their choice of time and place.

ESTRAGON: You’re sure it was this evening?

VLADIMIR: What?

ESTRAGON: That we were to wait.

VLADIMIR: He said Saturday. (Pause.) I think.

ESTRAGON:  You think.

VLADIMIR: I must have made a note of it. (He fumbles in his pockets, bursting with miscellaneous rubbish.)

ESTRAGON: (very insidious). But what Saturday? And is it Saturday? Is it not rather Sunday? (Pause.) Or Monday?   (Pause.) Or Friday?

VLADIMIR:  (looking wildly about him, as though the date was inscribed in the landscape). It’s not possible!

Like Vladimir and Estragon, we also wait for the results of an election that most believed was concluded over 10 days ago. And like the two doomed characters of Beckett’s drama, many of us have attempted to rationalize and validate our expectations.

On Friday, with Tzipi Livni effectively ending any possibility of a (somewhat) centre-right government in Israel by refusing to join a Likud-led coalition, the endgame was decided - with Netanyahu almost certainly set to become the next Prime Minister with Avigdor Lieberman close by his side. Livni has described the likely partnership as an ‘extremist right-wing government’ - one she refuses to collaborate with choosing instead to lead an opposition party to help balance the dangerously conservative coalition set to take the reigns as early as this Sunday.

Interstingly, Livni’s party, Kadima, having been formed by Ariel Sharon himself - a man whose policies most Western political observers would recognize as far-right, militarily aggressive, and religiously motivated - has been characterized by the media over the last few weeks as ‘centrist’, a label that that can only be applied when compared to Netanyahu’s Likud, or Lieberman’s Israel Beiteinu. Indeed, in attempting to discern the levels of ‘conservative’ between the parties in these last elections, the media has been forced to include titles such as ‘ultra’, ‘far right’, and ‘extreme right’ to describe the coalition that is set to govern in a week’s time. Thankfully, we have not yet been subjected to terms such as ’super duper conservative’, or ‘mega mega conservative’ - but of course only time will tell.

Leaving aside the range of what we in the West would consider ‘right wing’, and focusing instead on the inevitable combination of the three hardline parties of Israel likely to form the government - Likud, Shas, and Israel Beiteinu - it is important to recognize that the only common ground these groups occupy is perhaps the media’s defined nomenclature of ‘more conservative’ than Kadima.

As a minor example of the contrasting sentiments of the new coalition’s leaders, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef - the spiritual leader of the ‘mega’ religious right-wing Shas party - recently called Avigdor Lieberman “the devil”. Netanyahu himself has been loathe to award any power to his long-time rivals - and as publicly stated over the past month, everyone involved in this ‘conservative coalition’ thinks the other is either too conservative, dangerously imbalanced, or not nearly conservative enough.

None of this bodes particularly well for populations living on either side of the Green Line - or more widely, throughout the entire region.

Perhaps in the end, the rest of us watching from afar are not like Vladimir and Estragon after all. Perhaps the metaphor of a quarreling, confused collection of absurdist characters should be applied elsewhere.

A King Maker Arrives

With roughly 48 hours to go until President Shimon Peres formally selects either Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni or Likud head Benjamin Netanyahu to form a coalition government, the Knesset ‘horse-trading’ is well underway, with both parties working hard to secure the support of perhaps the election’s biggest winner, Israel Beiteinu’s Avigdor Lieberman. 

Holding a projected 15 seats in the new Israeli Knesset when final tallies arrive on Wednesday - and in effect making himself available to the highest bidder - Lieberman now has the enviable position of selecting the best offer, truly inheriting the ‘King Maker’ title he has been hesitant to acknowledge the past week. 

According to today’s Jerusalem Post, Lieberman has already met with both party leaders over the weekend and although it would appear Netanyahu’s Likud would be the more ‘natural’ fit,  is shrewdly refusing to divulge any current preference. And why should he? With Livni likely offering his party (and by extension himself) attractive roles in the Foreign or Defence ministries in an attempt to best a similar Likud offer, the quesiton is no longer who will be the next Prime Minister, but more appropriately, how powerful will Avigdor Lieberman become. 

Earlier on Monday MK Stas Misezhnikov,  a key figure in Lieberman’s negotiating team, stated to the Jerusalem Post that the party would only settle (in either case) for one of Israel’s top three ministeries - Defense, Foreign, or Finance. With both parties likely to make further concessions to Mr. Lieberman in the proceeding 48 hours, it is doubtful he will ’settle’ for the position of Finance Minister, and instead will insist on either the Foreign or Defense ministries - arguably two of the most powerful positions in government.

Given Lieberman’s rather outspoken views on Palestinian loyalty and previously documented proposals for full racial seperation, his ascendency to one of top three posts in the government spells certain dismay for the Palestinian Authority and by extension, U.S. President Barack Obama’s plans for a negotiated peace settlement in the forseeable future. 

With a majority of Arab States alongside the Palestinian Authority labelling Mr. Lieberman a racist and a clear detriment to the peace process, the next few days will be very tense indeed. 

Perhaps more sobering, this could be the first Israeli election in history where the role of Prime Minister seems altogether unimportant.

A Box Of Chocolates

It is a pity Forrest Gump was never asked to elaborate on his views of Israeli politics. Had Robert Zemeckis added that dimension to his 1994 pseudo-epic, we might have been treated to yet another analogy featuring the now famous ‘box of chocolates’.

Indeed when it comes to Israeli politics and its subsequent elections - one never knows what one will get.

Following the apparent victory of Tzipi Livni’s Kadima party on Tuesday, most of the world awoke on Wednesday to the prospect of a Kadima-led coalition with Livni as the new Prime Minister. That’s how normal Democratic elections work, right.

Wrong.

As anyone following the situation this week can attest, navigating the maze of the Israeli election process is not unlike the Democratic Party Nomination cycle in the United States - a system rife with complications.

So here goes.

In order for an Israeli political party to win an outright victory to govern alone, they are required to capture over 50% of the total seats in the Israeli Parliament. As the Parliament (or Knesset) has a total of 120 representatives, it is therefore necessary for said political party to acquire a minimum of 61 seats.

So far so good.

In the case of the past week, both Kadima and Likud (the two leading parties in this election) fell well short of the required 61 seats to allow either a clear and autonomous victory. Early predictions put the total seats won by Kadima at 28, and Likud at 27. The ultra-right wing Yisrael Beitenu Party led by Avigdor Lieberman came in third, capturing  roughly 15 seats.

This is where it gets fuzzy.

In order for any party to form a government, its leader (i.e. Livni or Netanyahu) must demonstrate an ability to cobble together 61+ seats in the Knesset primarily through allying with rival parties in the formation of a ‘ruling coalition’.

So who has the best chance of making this happen?

As the fall of the Labour Party, and subsequent rise of far-right parties such as Shas and Yisrael Beitenu demonstrate, the Israeli political system is moving clearly to the right. With the large number of total seats in the hands of far-right parties (including Likud), it is very possible Benyamin Netanyahu will be viewed as the most likely candidate to form a majority coalition government.

Next week, President Shimon Peres will consult all 12 parties in the new parliament, and based on their feedback and party preferences, will choose Netanyahu or Livni to try to form a government. Incidently, the Israeli President is elected every 7 years, and while wearing an illustrious title, is more of a figure-head rather than a ruling Head of State.

So the election is not really a decisive election. And a winner is not really a winner. Well, not yet at least.

Perhaps it is simply best to avoid all this for now. Or as Mr. Gump would do, “Run Forrest, run…!”

The Man In The Middle

As the world prepares for the outcome of tomorrow’s crucial parliamentary elections in Israel, most experts remain divided on its likely outcome. While the spotlight has predominantly focused on the next Prime Minister -  with headlines shifting the momentum between Tzipi Livni’s Kadima Party and Benyamin Netanyahu’s Likud, little has been made of the dramatic fall of Ehud Barak’s centrist Labour party, and with it the inevitable rise of an ultra-right wing religious movement launched on a platform of belligerence toward the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.

Described by Al Jazeera as the likely ‘King Maker’ of these elections, Yisrael Beiteinu’s hardline leader Avidgor Lieberman is well known throughout the region for his extreme views toward Arab Israelis - having recommended relocation of all Palestinians within Israel’s borders to the West Bank or Gaza, stripping Arab Israelis of both their citizenship and human rights. The Times recently summarized his popularity as follows:

His fan base sees him as a forceful leader with clear vision who can sweep away almost two decades of compromise with the Palestinians, which they say has only led to more terrorism, and impose tough conditions that will ensure Israel’s security. At recent rallies, youthful right-wing supporters have chanted “Death to the Arabs” as they awaited their hero.

Lieberman is an outspoken advocate of drastically reducing the number of Israeli Arabs in the country, proposes all Palestinians living in Israel swear an oath of allegiance to the country, and champions a programme of harsh retribution and military action against cities, towns and communities of the West Bank offering any resistance to the ongoing occupation.

Put simply, his campaign slogan of “no loyalty, no citizenship” has met with thunderous support by a hardline Israeli minority (including illegal West Bank settlers) who feel the recent Gaza operation was an example of ‘too little too late’.

While the prospects of Lieberman gaining outright power for his party are slim, he may indeed become a crucial player in the next Israeli government, and a key partner to the party that emerges from tomorrow’s election with a majority of seats in the Israeli Parliament (the Knesset). As Israeli law requires no less than 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset (over 50%), and with Livni and Netanyahu likely netting only 25-27 each, the victor must look to a third party for a coalition solution.

A solution that may well spell the continued rise of Mr. Lieberman.

Stick with bruised earth as the returns unfold on Tuesday. With the threat of a Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu coalition and an ultimate power-share of Benyamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman now a very real possibility, the stakes are high indeed.

Harsh And Disproportionate

On Monday Defense Minister Ehud Barak reassured the Israeli public that Operation ‘Cast Lead’ had been successful in curbing Hamas rocket attacks and dealing a fatal blow to the belligerent regime that continues to stand in defiance of both Israeli and PLO governments. Speaking on Israeli Army Radio, Barak hinted further strikes may still take place stating, “If we have to, we will hit Hamas again.”

Israeli politics have always demanded a macabre display of finger-wagging, threats, and brash military rhetoric. Some would call this the ‘language of the Middle East’. In a world where the ‘Arab’ understands only force (a phrase used more than once in the past 3 weeks), Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been playing his role to acclaim, adding an ominous warning on Sunday meant not only for Hamas, but for the uncooperative International media, when he predicted that a renewal of Hamas rocket fire will result in “harsh” and “disproportionate” action in Gaza.

“Harsh” and “disproportionate”.

These words have been used with such frequency by the world press during the Gaza campaign of the last month, that we have become all but anesthetized to their meaning. The famous political adage of ‘singing the enemy’s song’ cannot be understated as Olmert has in essence robbed the words of their meaning – defiantly accepting the challenge of the media, and forcing them to raise the stakes. 

Now that the Israeli government has publicly stated its strategy which has been illustrated with such bloodshed over the preceding weeks, how will the world’s media react? Rather than claiming the Israeli Defense Force will employ ‘surgical’ and ‘pinpoint’ strikes against military targets, the Prime Minister has told us all what we already know. The show of force that is endemic in the Israeli psyche (indeed a last method of survival of the current coalition government) will continue until the ‘politics’ are satisfied. Not before. 

Indeed with opposition leader, Benyamin Netanyahu criticizing the government for failure to eradicate Hamas entirely, we can expect the “harsh” and “disproportionate” reality to continue. 

After all, Olmert has revealed to us exactly how it will unfold. It is now up to the International media to respond to his challenge.