Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Photographer: Antoine Antoniol/Bloomberg
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former policy maker at the Bank of England, talks about the European Central Bank's decision to raise its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent and the impact on euro-zone economies and the region's sovereign-debt crisis.
Blanchflower speaks with Margaret Brennan on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Lena Komileva, global head of G10 strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd., discusses the European Central Bank's decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 1.25 percent from a record low of 1 percent.
Komileva, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Midday Surveillance," also discusses the euro and U.S. economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- James Nixon, co-chief European economist at Societe Generale SA, discusses today's European Central Bank rate decision.
ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt today raised the benchmark interest rate for the first time in almost three years to 1.25 percent from a record low of 1 percent. Nixon speaks with Erik Schatzker and Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)
European Central Bank President
Jean-Claude Trichet left the door open for further interest-rate
increases to tame inflation after raising borrowing costs for
the first time in almost three years.
Inflation risks remain on the upside and the ECB’s monetary
policy is still “accommodative,” Trichet said at a press
conference in Frankfurt after lifting the benchmark rate by a
quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent. While “we did not
decide it was the first in a series of interest-rate increases,
you know from our own doctrine that we always do what is
necessary to deliver price stability over the medium term,” he
said.
The ECB is balancing the need for tighter policy in
countries like Germany, whose economy is booming, against the
risk that higher rates could exacerbate the sovereign debt
crisis afflicting peripheral euro-area nations. While bonds
erased declines and the euro initially fell after Trichet’s
comments as some investors pared bets on rapid rate increases,
markets still expect the ECB to raise its benchmark to 1.75
percent by the end of the year, Eonia forward contracts show.
“Trichet retained a relatively hawkish tone but the market
has already priced in so much and there was nothing in there to
extend that theme,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign exchange
strategist at Rabobank International in London. Trichet “is
paving the way for further rate rises but he’s also clearly
unwilling to commit the Governing Council to pre-announcing rate
hikes”
Yields Decline
The yield on two-year German notes, typically more
sensitive to interest-rate expectations, fell as much as three
basis points and was one basis point lower at 1.83 percent as of
2:56 p.m. in London. The euro, which fell as much as 0.6
percent, recouped its losses to trade at $1.43.
The ECB joins central banks in China, India, Poland and
Sweden in raising interest rates even as the Federal Reserve
remains reluctant to tighten amid divisions among its policy
makers. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan today left
their key rates unchanged at 0.5% and 0.1% respectively.
Today’s ECB increase is the first since July 2008 and also
the first time in 40 years that Europe’s benchmark has risen
before the U.S. equivalent.
Inflation breached the ECB’s 2 percent limit in December
and accelerated to 2.6 percent last month, the fastest pace in
more than two years.
Broad-Based Pressures
While ECB officials acknowledge that surging energy and
food prices are largely to blame, they’re worried that workers
will demand higher wages in compensation, entrenching faster
inflation.
“It is essential that recent price developments do not
give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium
term,” Trichet said.
The ECB has repeatedly been forced to delay the withdrawal
of emergency policy settings enacted during the global financial
crisis as Europe’s debt woes threatened to tear the 17-nation
currency bloc apart. It is still providing banks with unlimited
liquidity and has kept its bond-purchase program in place.
Portugal last night became the third euro-area nation after
Greece and Ireland to succumb to the region’s debt crisis and
seek a European Union bailout. Trichet said the ECB “encouraged
Portugal to ask for support.”
German Strength
While nations such as Ireland and Spain are still buckling
under debt burdens and burst property bubbles, Germany’s economy
last year expanded 3.6 percent, the most since reunification two
decades ago.
“The ECB is setting rates in relation to Germany,” said
Vicky Pryce, managing director of FTI Consulting Inc in London
and a former adviser to the U.K. government. “It’s a bold move,
but a wrong one,” she said, adding Greece, Ireland, Portugal
and possibly Spain “need a rate increase like a hole in the
head.”
On aggregate, the region has returned to health. Euro-area
growth will average 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent in
2012, according to ECB forecasts.
“Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum
of economic activity continues to be positive,” Trichet said.
“We will continue to monitor very closely all developments with
respect to upside risks to price stability.”
The phrase “monitor very closely” was “used in the
previous rate-hike cycle to signal that a hike could come as
early as the meeting after next,” said Nick Kounis, chief
European economist at ABN Amro in Amsterdam. “Our base scenario
is that interest rates will rise again in July.”
Ken Wattret, chief euro-area economist at BNP Paribas SA in
London, said the ECB could raise rates again as soon as June.
Trichet’s comment that the ECB hasn’t decided that today’s
move is the start of a series of increases “is not the same as
saying that it will not be one,” Wattret said.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Gabi Thesing in London at
gthesing@bloomberg.net;
Jana Randow in Frankfurt at
jrandow@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net