The average price of housing in Greater Victoria declined by 4.5 per cent in January compared with one year earlier, said the B.C. Real Estate Association.

Last month's average for all types of homes sold in the capital region was $486,384, compared with $509,514 in January, 2010.

Average prices can be a "little choppy" month-to-month, said Cameron Muir, chief economist for the association. Sales can vary in how they are distributed among housing types in any particular month.

"Victoria's pricing looks relatively stable," Muir said from Vancouver on Monday.

A number of comparisons and factors are considered by real estate watchers when analyzing the real estate market. Three common comparisons are the average price in a given month, the six-month rolling average, and the median (mid-way) price.

The average price of a single-family house — the strongest seller in this region — year-over-year slid 6.4 per cent to $603,401 in January, from $644,678 the same month a year earlier, Victoria Real Estate Board figures show.

The median price in that time dropped by 3.19 per cent to $576,000 from $595,000.

When the six-month rolling average for capital regional homes is compared year-to-year, the picture changes.

Under that six-month calculation, single-family houses came in at $619,875 in January, up 0.7 per cent from $615,271 in January 2010,

However, condominiums had a six-month average price of $320,108 in January, down 1.23 per cent from $324,098 in the same month in 2010. Townhouses dropped by 3.48 per cent in last month's six-month average to $439,158 from $455,002 a year earlier.

Greater Victoria's January-to-January price drop for all types of housing contrasts with the 11.5 per cent increase seen for the province as a whole.

B.C.'s numbers are skewed by the strong showing of Greater Vancouver, where prices rose 19.6 per cent year-over-year due to a higher proportion of sales by buyers, many offshore or recent immigrants, picking up executive and luxury homes in Richmond and on the west side of Vancouver, Muir said. The Vancouver area accounts for 40 per cent of the province's total sales.

"The market itself is continuing on its normalization trend that started after the summer of last year. My expectation is that we will see some modest increases in home sales activity in the coming months," he said.

Muir predicts that this year B.C. will see up to 83,000 homes sales, close to the 10-year-average.

"Overall consumer demand is going to improve right along with overall economic conditions in the province. An expanding economy, rising wages, job growth and strong population growth in B.C. are going to be somewhat offset by eroding affordability and declines in purchasing power as those rates increase, he said.

It is expected that the five year posted rate of about 5.4 per cent today (it went up 25 basis points last week) will reach 5.9 per cent by year's end, Muir said. "Continuing on, what will likely be a 24-month upward trend in mortgage rates, provided of course that economic conditions support that."

cjwilson@timescolonist.com