Investing

With Congress playing "deal or no deal" on Obama's tax compromise and Europe seemingly on the verge of imploding, there's a lot to worry about these days.So what is the so-called smart money worried about? China, according to ...» More

Reports last week told a tale of U.S. banks more susceptible to a collapse in commercial real estate here at home than the crisis unfolding over European debt.

"We are far more worried about the value of commercial real estate than what will happen with Spain, Italy and Portugal,” Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets banking analyst, told The Wall Street Journal.

The lack of concern about Europe was evident Tuesday morning: European sovereign debt weakened after policymakers ruled outimmediate aid for Portugal and Spain, or an increase in the $1 trillion crisis fund, Bloomberg reports. Still, U.S. stocks were higher in the early going, with financials leading the way, amid excitement over President Obama's tax deal with the GOP and thegovernment's sale of its remaining stake in Citigroup.

But the picture is not so cut and dry, Peter Atwater, President and CEO of Financial Insyghts, tells Aaron in the accompanying video, taped at Minyanville's annual Festivus event.

“From a regional bank perspective, commercial real estate remains a shoe to be dropped,” says Atwater. But the European debt crisis should be top of mind for the top five or six banks that “represent 70 percent of all U.S. deposits and loans,” he says.

U.S. bank exposure to European debt stood at $146 billion as of June 30, The WSJ reports, meaning the U.S. financial system is far from immune to a potential default in the eurozone.

One place to run for cover now is in companies with strong cash flow and no debt, says Daniel Englander, founder and managing partner of Ursula Investors.

Many business models are dangerously dependent on the constant need to refinance and on the cheap money currently available, Englander explains. Today's rock-bottom interest rates will surely rise and access to capital will become more expensive, he says.

Whether it's U.S. commercial real estate or European debt that may eventually send shivers through our banking system, Englander predicts the faucet of easy access to capital will inevitably be turned off. Companies reliant on those funds will suffer.

“For us to buy something we have to be convinced that they are self-sustaining, that they can produce enough capital to survive for the next three, four, five years,” says Englander.

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Tech Ticker was on hand last week at Minyanville's annual holiday gathering, Festivus. Many of our favorite guests were in attendance, so before we could partake in the festivities and libations, we decided to do some work.

Mixing business with pleasure, in this, case turned out to be a good idea, especially when we sat Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Captial and Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. together.

As you'll see in this clip, the two found little common ground, leading to a heated debate about whether the U.S. was headed down the path of inflation or deflation.

For those not familiar with their work, Schiff is a gold bug and inflationista; Shilling has been long Treasuries since 1981 and has a new book titled The Age of Deleveraging. (He's quick to point out its top Amazon rating in the business book category.)

While they disagree, each has been right... and wrong.

Shilling obviously nailed his Treasury call but his insistent bearish stock market predictions have left him in the cold since March of 2009. Meanwhile, Schiff has made a fortune betting on precious metals like gold and silver but has been wrong to predict a bust in Treasuries and the dollar since the 2008 crisis.

Without further adieu... sit back, relax and enjoy the show.

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Chairman Ben Bernanke came out swinging Sunday night on 60 Minutes.

First, as expected, he said he's ready and willing to do more quantitative easing if he feels it will help.

Second, he said inequality is destroying America.

Bernanke can talk about the growing inequality but there is little he can do about, says Mark Dow of hedge fund, Pharo Management, in this accompanying clip. Inequality is the result of an economy that favors the financially savvy and the globalization trend that has decimated our manufacturing sector.

Dow agrees with Bernanke that education is the key to closing the gap. Unfortunately, retraining and re-educating an aging workforce is a long and painful process. Plus, America is not attracting educated foreigners the way it used to. Globalization has tampered with that long-held tradition as well.

Third, Bernanke said we need to simplify the tax code, cutting rates and eliminating "loopholes."

This, he says, will incent people to make more investments (we don't see how that necessarily follows, but that's what he said.)

“The tax code is very inefficient — both the personal tax code and the corporate tax code,” Mr. Bernanke said. “By closing loopholes and lowering rates, you could increase the efficiency of the tax code and create more incentives for people to invest.”

Bernanke didn't specify whether eliminating "loopholes" includes eliminating the mortgage-interest tax deduction that everyone loves. Unless he's looking to get sacked, we assume he doesn't mean that. (But of course it should be eliminated, because it's just another housing-market subsidy, one that punishes people who choose to rent instead of buy...)

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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Dec 06, 2010 07:40am EST by Gregory White in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Biotech

Provided by Business Insider, Monday, December 6:

Gregory White, On Monday December 6, 2010, 7:25 am

Good morning. Here's what you need to know:

Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading, with the Nikkei down 0.11%. Major European indices are down this morning and U.S. futures suggest a negative open.

The eurozone continues to be under pressure this morning. The euro is falling, now down to $1.33 and the Spanish 10-year bond is now yielding over 5%, again. Here's why markets are so worried about the situation in Spain.

China is expecting inflation to rise no more than 5%, year-over-year, in December, according to government authorities, with the November number to be similar. In October inflation surged 4.4%. Here's why surging Chinese inflation is just the beginning.

Part of what is putting pressure on the euro today is continued uncertainty about the size and potential expansion of the eurozone bailout. Germany is in opposition to any plan that would see the bailout fund increased beyond €750 billion or the creation of ECB bonds. Here are the next dominos at risk in the eurozone debt crisis.

Bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank are preemptively planning on suing the Irish government for the cuts thy intend to force upon investors. The suing parties are bond funds, insurers, and fixed income funds, but not more speculative bondholders, like hedge funds. Here's how Ireland became the biggest basketcase in Europe.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke opened the door to further quantitative easing beyond the $600 billion limit last night when speaking on 60 Minutes. Bernanke also called for the closing of tax loopholes and the simplification of the tax code. Here's why QE is a key driver of investing trends in 2011.

3M has acquired Winterthur Technologies for $448 million. 3M plans for the Swiss company to add to its earnings when the deal is finished in Q1 2011.

The municipal bond market will be under further stress this week, as $13.5 billion in debt comes to market. The New Jersey Turnpike Authority alone is bringing $1.5 billion to market. Here are 15 states with bulging deficits muni bond investors need to watch.

Pfizer CEO Jeffrey Kindler has resigned and been replaced by Ian Reed. Kindler's tenure saw Pfizer's stock price decline 35%.

There are rumors of AOL breaking itself up into two divisions and potentially combining with Yahoo, though has yet to contact Yahoo. The strategy would involve the spin-off of the company's internet service and combination of its content business with Yahoo.

 

 

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Stocks are selling off heading into the weekend on the heels of a disappointing jobs report. Call it a breather, not the end of the recent stock market rally, says Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.

The pros will continue to buy stocks this year as they attempt to make up for what he describes as "the worst year of underperformance by active managers" in his 40 years in the business, he tells Aaron in this clip. "Professional money mangers are underinvested and underperforming," and are therefore facing "performance risk, bonus risk and ultimately job risk," he says.

Faced with those realities, Saut is betting on more upside into January. Near term, he recommends buying "momentum stocks that have done well and are making new highs."

As for 2011, he says Washington will play a big role in the market. "If you get Barack Obama and crew moving to the center, I think the S&P; [500] could go through 1300 real quick."

Where are the market opportunities?

Saut is still bullish on commodity and energy stocks on the back of growing emerging market demand. 

He recommends the following stocks:

Clayton Williams Energy

Alpha Nautral believing in the super cycle for coal.

Cenovus Energy and North American Energy Partners, two Canadian tar sand plays, are also on his list. "It's the second-largest oil find on the planet, and the Canadians don't hate us."

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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Dec 03, 2010 07:47am EST by Gregory White in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

Provided by Business Insider, December 3, 2010:

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

Asian markets were mostly lower in overnight trading, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.04%. Major European indices are mostly lower, and U.S. futures suggest a mixed open.

China has made its change in monetary policy official, by announcing that in 2011 the country will move from a "moderately loose" policy to a more "prudent" one. This statement is a precursor to further tightening measures aimed at controlling inflation. Chinese inflation is one 2011 trend to watch for, here are some more.

The jobs report is released at 8:30 AM ET, and analysts are calling for 168K new jobs in November. Public sector jobs cuts remain a large concern, and this report should provide detail on their pace.

South Korea has threatened to "definitely use aircraft to bomb North Korea," if the country attacks again. The comments, made by the South's new defense minister, were made in the context of what the U.S. has referred to as an "immediate threat" from North Korea. For more detail on the North Korean threat, check out this guide to their capabilities.

The price of crude oil is now at a two-year high, above $90. Further liquidity measures from the ECB and snowy conditions throughout Europe are fueling its advance. Rising oil prices is one 2011 commodities trend to watch, check out some more here.

Walter Energy has purchased Western Coal Corp in a $3.3 billion deal. The deal will bring an American and Canadian coal producer together, with a total of 385 million tons of coal. For more on rising coal prices, check out this presentation on peak coal.

In its latest international expansion, Sinopec has bought an 18% position in Chevron's Indonesian deepwater gas fields. The deal, valued at $680 million, has yet to be signed off on by officials in China and Indonesia.

The battle over the extension of the Bush tax cuts continues in the Senate this weekend, with several votes planned. It is likely these votes will not pass, and both parties will have to come to a compromise in which the Republican position for total extension, regardless of wealth, is accommodated.

Factory orders data comes in at 10 AM ET and is expected to show a 0.8% decline from September to October.

The ISM non-manufacturing index for November is released at 10 AM ET. It is expected to come in at 55.

Bonus: Britney Spears intends to sue Star Magazine over what she claims are false accusations Jason Trawick, her current boyfriend, abused her.

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According to John Cassidy, Wall Street banks are supposed to act “like a power utility… except they provide money rather than power.”

But what happens when the power utility, instead of focusing on how best to manage and distribute power, decides to focus on using customer funds to make a quick buck?

The answer, as Cassidy explains in his recent New Yorker article, is a financial system pushed to the brink of collapse.

As he explains to Aaron, Wall Street - at its best – serves an important and necessary purpose: to raise capital for businesses, which in turn fuels the economy, creates jobs and improves the overall standard of living. Lloyd Blankfein famously called it "God's Work." The problem is, investment banking isn't the focus anymore.

Instead, the banks engage in a socially worthless pursuit of profits, via trading, creating huge amounts of risk for everyone – except the actual players of the game.

As Cassidy writes in the New Yorker, the banks have “turned themselves from businesses whose profits rose and fell with the capital-raising needs of their clients into immense trading houses whose fortunes depend on their ability to exploit day-to-day movements in the markets.”

And the problem is that, even after bringing about an almost-collapse of our entire financial system, and (as you may have heard) requiring billions of taxpayer dollars to survive, not much has changed.

Consider his finding that “in the first 9 months of this year, sales and trading accounted for 36% of Morgan Stanley’s revenues and a much higher proportion of profits.” The example is even more dramatic in the case of Goldman Sachs – the envy of all Wall Street – where, as Cassidy writes, “trading accounted for 63% of its revenue and corporate finance just 13%” between July and September.

In short, bankers “have done very well for themselves,” he says, but “not very much for the rest of the country.”

Cassidy is not anti-Wall Street. He acknowledges the importance of raising capital to fund businesses. But he maintains that there is an inherent problem with a system that gives condition-free public dollars to an entity that not does nothing in return and creates very little societal value.

At the very least, he says, our government should have “insisted on harsher terms” in bailing out these firms. If we had taken a bigger stake in Goldman Sachs, for instance, our tax dollars would have seen an acceptable return.

Instead, we continue to privatize the gains and socialize the losses – while Wall Street and its citizens continue to take as much as "We the People" will give.

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Here Are The 15 Housing Markets That Will Fall The Most By 2012

Dec 02, 2010 03:46pm EST by Gus Lubin and Leah Goldman in Investing, Recession, Housing

Provided by Business Insider, Decmeber 2, 2010:

Case-Shiller's September housing report came out worse than expected, confirming to any doubters that the housing double dip is here.

National home prices dropped 1.5% in September.

The new data will worsen Case-Shiller's already bearish outlook for the housing market. Earlier this month, it forecast a 7.1 percent drop in prices from Q2 '10 to Q2 '11, with price stagnation through Q2 '12.

This is a brutal forecast, which would have wide economic consequences. Five years after the housing peak, markets in Florida, Nevada and California would remain down around 60 percent.

Click here to see the worst cities >

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Provided by the Business Insider, December 2, 2010:

Bruce Pellegrino has never been featured in Inc or Forbes Magazine, but he has achieved more than most entrepreneurs who have been.

His first entrepreneurial endeavor was selling night crawlers to neighbors at age five. He never completed college because his landscaping business took up too much time. Everything he learned about business was through trial and error.

Pellegrino’s career took off when he built, scaled and sold a $10 million business. Most people would retire after one multi-million-dollar sale, but Pellegrino aspired for more.

After his company sold, Pellegrino grew the newly-merged entity into a 330-person, $90 million business. Under his direction as CEO, the company sold again in 2005. This time, it was to General Electric for about $180 million.

We spoke with Pellegrino about how he accomplished two multi-million-dollar sales, his feelings about higher education, and how he maintains a successful work-life balance.

Here's Bruce's story:

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