State legislative elections, 2010

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	2010 State Legislative Elections
	Impact for redistricting • Partisan control • Competitiveness analysis • Impact of Term Limits • Tea Party study
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	Primary elections • Statewide elections, 2010 • State Senate elections • State House elections

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In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether, and 88 of the 99 chambers are holding state legislative elections on November 2, 2010.

The 11 chambers without elections in 2010 (except for an occasional special election), are the upper houses and lower houses in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia, and the upper house (state senate) in Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina.

1,167 of the country's 1,971 state senate seats are up for re-election in November, and 4,958 (91.6%) of the country's 5,413 state house seats are up for re-election. Altogether, 6,125 of the country's 7,384 state legislative seats are up for re-election in this volatile election year.

Of the 88 chambers with elections, Democrats are the majority in 52 and Republicans are the majority in 33. All election predictions made by state legislative observers are predicting that more chambers will move into the Republican column. (See Projected outcomes of state senate elections and Projected outcomes of state house elections.)

See also: State senate elections and State house elections

Impact for redistricting

Analysis in USA Today and the Wall Street Journal say that the U.S. Congressional and state legislative redistricting that will take place after the 2010 census is very much at the front of the mind of national GOP and Democratic strategists when they think about state legislative outcomes.^[1] An NPR report noted that if Republicans have a strong showing on November 2, they could have complete control over the drawing of about 150 U.S. House seats.^[2] Mike Dean, executive director of Common Cause Minnesota, said that while voters decide who their legislators are, redistricting provides an opportunity for politicians to decide who their voters are.^[3]

Nationally, leading into the November 2010 election, Republicans control the governor's office, state House and state Senate in 9 nine states, while Democrats enjoy what is called "total control" in 16.^[4] The Democrats have highlighted Texas as a battleground to wrestle total control from the Republicans, while Ohio is one state where Republicans are trying to obtain total control for redistricting.^[5]

In a recent New York Times article, Republicans are predicting they will gain at least 10 state legislative chambers (including: the Indiana House of Representatives, Ohio House of Representatives and Wisconsin State Senate). This would provide them authority in the redistricting of about 25 Congressional districts. Meanwhile, Democrats explain they have a chance to win back control in several chambers including Tennessee House of Representatives, Texas House of Representatives and Michigan State Senate. The Republican State Leadership Committee plans to spend about $18 million on state elections this year while the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee plans to spend about $20 million.^[6]

E.J. Dionne, columnist for the Washington Post, noted that more legislative power for Republicans will equate to a better chance of drawing maps to elect Republicans. However, much of that power will also rest on the success of Republicans vs. Democrats in the gubernatorial and Secretary of State elections. In many states, redistricting authority rests with politicians beyond just the legislature. For example, Ohio's redistricting is determined by a commission with the Governor, Secretary of State and State Auditor.^[7]

Partisan control

According to Tim Storey, an elections analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures, when it comes to 2010's state legislative elections, "This is going to be an extremely challenging year for Democrats for a variety of reasons...History is not on their side. Since 1900, the party in the White House loses seats in the legislature in every midterm except for 1934 and 2002. That's a 2-25 losing streak for the party in the White House -- a tough trend to break. Add to that the fact that Democrats are riding high right now at over 55 percent of all seats, and it shapes up to be possibly the worst election for Democrats since 1994."^[8]

Heading into the November 2 elections, the Democratic Party holds a commanding lead in state houses in the 88 legislative chambers that hold elections in 2010. 52 of the 88 chambers, or nearly 60% of them, currently have a Democratic majority, while 33 of them have a Republican majority. (Two chambers have an exactly equal number of Democrats and Republicans and one is officially non-partisan.)

Legislative chamber
State senates	23	18	1	1
State houses	29	15	1	-
Totals:	52	33	2	1

On October 11, Storey released information detailing the 11 states that might swing partisan control.^[9] There are 11 states and 16 total chambers that Storey deems battlegrounds. Below are the 11 states as detailed by Storey.

State	Battleground chamber	Current majority party
Alabama	House and Senate
Alaska	Senate
Colorado	House and Senate
Indiana	House
Montana	House
New Hampshire	House and Senate
New York	Senate
North Carolina	House and Senate
Ohio	House
Pennsylvania	House
Wisconsin	House and Senate

As the election draws closer, analysts appear to be predicting more and more chambers that could switch to Republican control. According to Storey, an average of 13 chambers change party control every two-year cycle.^[9]

State senates

See also: State senate elections, 2010

As of October 2010, the Democratic Party holds the majority in 28 state senates. 23 of those state senates have state senate elections in 2010. The Republican Party holds the majority in 20 senates, and 18 of those senates have elections in November.

In 23 of the 43 state senates with an election in November, the Democratic Party is the majority party heading into the elections.
In 18 of the state senates, the Republican Party is the majority party
In 1 state (Alaska), there is an equal number of Democratic and Republican senators heading into November.
In 1 of the 43 states (Nebraska), state senators are officially non-partisan.

An analysis by Louis Jacobson, a staff writer for PolitiFact, asserts that partisan dominance is at stake in 12 of the 43 state senates with elections in 2010, while 31 state senates are very likely to close out the year with no change in majority party. Jacobson identifies the 12 states in the chart below as battleground states for state senate partisan dominance:^[8]

(To sort columns, click on the icon at the top of any column.)

State	Current majority party	Jacobson's analysis
Alabama		Toss-up
Alaska		Toss-up
Colorado		Leans
Iowa		Leans
Maine		Leans
Montana		Leans
Nevada		Leans
North Carolina		Leans
New Hampshire		Toss-up
New York		Toss-up
Tennessee		Leans
Wisconsin		Toss-up

The gist of Jacobson's analysis is that while 2 states currently held by Republicans are vulnerable to a shift in partisan control, 9 states held by Democrats are vulnerable to a shift and one state with party parity (Alaska) could go either way. This means that the Democratic Party is in a position of heightened vulnerability when it comes to retaining control of partisan dominance in state legislatures, compared to the degree of vulnerability of the GOP.

Another prediction from the Republican State Leadership Committee lists six chambers as easy Republican wins -- Indiana House, Michigan House, North Carolina House, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House and Wisconsin Senate. Additionally, 11 other Democratically-controlled chambers might also swing Republican. They are: Alabama House, Alabama Senate, Colorado House, Colorado Senate, Iowa House, Iowa Senate, Illinois House, New York Senate, North Carolina Senate, Oregon Senate, and Wisconsin Senate.^[10]

As the election date has drawn closer, more forecasts of shown the atmosphere worsening for the Democrats. Jacobson's second prediction shows 28 chambers in play -- 25 controlled by Democrats.^[11] Since the initial prediction in July, the following chambers shifted in the Republican's favor:

Illinois House of Representatives, Oregon State Senate, Washington State Senate and Washington House of Representatives from "safely Democratic" to "in play."
Montana House of Representatives, Pennsylvania House of Representatives and Ohio House of Representatives from "tossups" to "lean Republican."
Colorado House of Representatives, Maine State Senate and North Carolina State Senate from "lean Democratic" to "tossup".^[11]

There were 15 additional chambers that are anticipated to move in the Republican's favor during subsequent predictions.^[11]

State houses

See also: State house elections, 2010

As of October 2010, the Democratic Party holds the majority in 32 state houses. 30 of those state houses have state house elections in 2010. The Republican Party holds the majority in 16 houses, and 15 of those houses have elections in November.

In 30 of the 45 state houses with an election in November, the Democratic Party is the majority party heading into the elections.
In 15 of the state houses, the Republican Party is the majority party
In 1 state (Montana), there is an equal number of Democratic and Republican representatives heading into November.

Impact of term limits

Main article: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2010

Fourteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers holding general elections on November 2, 2010 include some state legislators who are unable to run for re-election in 2010 because of their state's legislative term limits.

122 state senators are termed-out in 2010. This represents 36% of the 337 total state senate seats up for election in November in the 14 term-limited state senates with elections in 2010.

253 state representatives are termed-out. This represents 20% of the 1,263 total seats up for election in November in the 13 term-limited states with elections in November 2010.

Altogether, 375 current state legislators must leave office after the November elections because of term limits. This is 23% of the 1,600 state legislative seats up for election this year in the 14 term-limited states with 2010 elections.

State senators

See also: Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2010

43 state senates are holding general elections in November 2010. In 14 of these states, state senate terms are subject to term limits. Louisiana is the only state with state senate term limits that is not holding a general election for its state senate in 2010.

122 current state senators are ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes 55 incumbent Democratic state senators, 66 incumbent Republican state senators and 1 non-partisan state senator.

Going into the November 2010 election, the Democratic Party is the majority party in 5 of the 14 state senates with term limits. The Republican Party is the majority party in 8 of the term-limited state senates. Nebraska's state senate is term-limited and officially non-partisan.

In 7 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and South Dakota. In all seven of these states, the current majority party is also the Republican Party.
In 4 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma. In three of these states, the current majority party is also the Democratic Party.
In 2 states, the axe falls equally on both parties (California and Maine).
The Oklahoma State Senate elections is the only state where the current minority party (the Democratic Party) is losing more senators (4) than the current majority party, the Republicans, who are losing 2 senators.

State representatives

See also: Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2010

In 13 of the 45 state house chambers with November elections, state house terms are subject to term limits. (15 states have state legislative term limits, but Louisiana is not holding a state house election in 2010 and Nebraska does not have a state house.)

Going into the November 2010 election, the Democratic Party is the majority party in 7 of the 13 state houses with term limits. The Republican Party is the majority party in 5 of the term-limited state houses. One state -- Montana -- is equal with 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats.

In 6 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma and South Dakota. In 5 of these states, the current majority party is also the Republican Party. The Montana House is currently evenly split at 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans.
In 6 states, the term limits axe falls more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. In all 6 of these states, the current majority party is also the Democratic Party.
In 1 state, the axe falls equally on both parties (Maine).

Impact on parties

The Republican Party is taking more of a hit from term limits in the 2010 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party is losing (190, versus 182 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers are losing more Republicans (13, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).

Chart indicating impact on individual legislators by party:

Party	# of termed senators	# of termed representatives	Total
Democratic	55	127	182
Republican	66	124	190
Non-partisan	1	2	3

Chart indicating impact on legislative chambers by party:

Party	Senates with most losses	Houses with most losses	Total
Democratic	4	6	10
Republican	7	6	13
Equal D/R losses	2	1	3

Analysis of competitiveness

2010 Competitiveness Overview
Primary competition (state comparison)
Incumbents with no primary challenge in 2010 Incumbents with no challenges at all in 2010 Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers
Major party challengers (state comparison)
List of candidates with no competition
Open seats (state comparisons)
Impact of term limits on # of open seats Long-serving senators • Long-serving reps
Overall comparisons
Party differences
Competitiveness Index
2010 State Legislative Elections

An overview of the degree of competitiveness of the 2010 state legislative elections was conducted that examined three competitiveness factors:

Unchallenged incumbents in the 2010 state legislative elections

1,133 incumbents faced a primary challenger in 2010.

3,852 incumbents (77.3%) running for re-election in 2010 had no primary challenger.

Since 4,985 incumbents are running for re-election in 2010, that means that only 22.7% of incumbents faced a primary challenger.

Major party candidates with major party competition in the November 2010 state legislative elections

There are only 24 total third party candidates in the state legislature. Thus, major parties are virtually guaranteed election.

2,000 major party candidates (32.7%) have no major party challenger on November 2.

Open seats in the 2010 state legislative elections

In 4,985 (81.4%) of the 6,125 seats up for election on November 2, the incumbent is running for re-election.

In 1,140 (18.6%) of the 6,125 seats up for election on November 2, the incumbent is not running for re-election.

375 incumbents, in 14 states, are not running because they are not allowed to, due to state legislative term limits in their state.

Alternatively, of the 6,125 legislative seats up for election in 2010, 5,750 incumbents could, legally, have run again in 2010.

Of those 5,750 seats, 770 incumbents, or 13.4%, who could have run again in 2010 chose not to.

After adjusting for term limited state legislators, 86.6% of the incumbents who were legally able to run again in 2010 chose to run again.

According to our electoral competitiveness metric, the five most competitive state legislative chambers holding elections this year are:

Based on our index, the five states with the least competitive elections are:

46. Texas

45. Tennessee

44. Delaware

43. Kentucky

42. New Mexico

We arrived at these overall rankings by adding up the individual ranks from open seats, primary opposition, and major party general election challenge and then dividing by three.

Impact of Tea Party movement

See also: Ballotpedia:Tea Parties and State Legislatures

A survey of state and local tea parties around the country was undertaken to gain a measurement of the extent to which Tea Party activists are (or are not, as the case may be) involving themselves in 2010's state legislative elections.

Alabama

Alabama's primary was held on June 1.

The Alabama legislative elections ranked 22nd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Alabama's state senators are elected to a four-year term that begins at midnight following the day of the election.

Elections will be held in all 35 of Alabama's senate districts on November 2. The incumbent senator is running for re-election in 27 of the 35 state senate seats that are up for re-election in 2010. The incumbent representative is running for re-election in 11 of the 105 state house seats up for election.

The last time a chamber in Alabama was controlled by Republicans was 1872. But according to analysts, the chamber may swing from Democratic control on November 2.^[5]

Alaska

Alaska's primary was held on August 24.

The Alaska legislative elections ranked 31st in overall electoral competitiveness.

Alaska's state senators are elected to a four-year term that begins the 4th Monday of January following a November election.

Elections will be held in 10 of Alaska's 20 senate districts on November 2. The incumbent senator is running for re-election in 9 of the 10 state senate seats that are up for re-election in 2010. The incumbent representative is running for re-election in 36 of the 40 state house seats up for election.

Arizona

Partisan dominance in state legislatures heading into the 2010 state legislative elections

Arizona's primary was held on August 24.

The Arizona legislative elections ranked 3rd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Arizona's state senators are elected to a two-year term that begins the first day of the session after they are elected. Each regular session begins on the second Monday in January. Members are limited to four terms, for a total of eight years.

Elections will be held in all 30 of Arizona's senate districts on November 2. The incumbent senator is running for re-election in 15 of the 30 state senate seats that are up for re-election in 2010. The incumbent representative is running for re-election in 36 of the 60 state house seats up for election.

Arkansas

The Arkansas primary was held on May 18.

The Arkansas legislative elections ranked 33rd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Arkansas's state senators are elected to a four-year term that begins the first day of the session after they are elected. Each regular session begins on the second Monday in January. Members are limited to two terms, for a total of eight years.

Elections will be held in 17 of Arkansas's 35 senate districts on November 2. The incumbent senator is running for re-election in 4 of the 17 state senate seats that are up for re-election in 2010. The incumbent representative is running for re-election in 60 of the 100 state house seats up for election.

California

California's primary was held on June 8.

The California legislative elections ranked 11th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Colorado

Colorado's primary was held on August 10.

The Colorado legislative elections ranked 21st in overall electoral competitiveness.

Connecticut

The Connecticut legislative elections ranked 36th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Delaware

The Delaware legislative elections ranked 44th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Florida

The Florida legislative elections ranked 17th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Georgia

The Georgia legislative elections ranked 28th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Hawaii

State legislatures where heading into November 2010 the Democratic Party is in the majority in both chambers

The Hawaii legislative elections ranked 6th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Idaho

The Idaho legislative elections ranked 30th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Illinois

The Illinois legislative elections ranked 39th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Indiana

The Indiana legislative elections ranked 37th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Iowa

The Iowa legislative elections ranked 29th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Kansas

State legislatures where heading into the November 2, 2010 elections the Republican Party is in the majority in both chambers

Kansas will not hold any state senate elections in 2010.

Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2010

The Kansas legislative elections ranked 34th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Kentucky

The Kentucky legislative elections ranked 43rd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Louisiana

Louisiana will not hold any state legislative elections in 2010.

Maine

The Maine legislative elections ranked 14th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Maryland

The Maryland legislative elections ranked 5th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Massachusetts

The Massachusetts legislative elections ranked 40th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Michigan

State legislatures where heading into November 2010 partisan control is split between the two legislative chambers

The Michigan legislative elections ranked 2nd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Minnesota

The Minnesota legislative elections ranked 24th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Mississippi

Mississippi will not hold any state legislative elections in 2010.

Missouri

The Missouri legislative elections ranked 20th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Montana

The Montana legislative elections ranked 12th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Nebraska

Nebraska State Senate elections, 2010

The Nebraska legislative elections ranked 7th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Nevada

The Nevada legislative elections ranked 4th in overall electoral competitiveness.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire legislative elections ranked 1st in overall electoral competitiveness.

New Jersey

Only one state legislature is officially non-partisan

New Jersey will not hold any state legislative elections in 2010.

New Mexico

New Mexico will not hold any State Senate elections in 2010.
New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2010

The New Mexico legislative elections ranked 42nd in overall electoral competitiveness.

New York

The New York legislative elections ranked 13th in overall electoral competitiveness.

North Carolina

The North Carolina legislative elections ranked 19th in overall electoral competitiveness.

North Dakota

The North Dakota legislative elections ranked 25th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Ohio

The Ohio legislative elections ranked 8th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma legislative elections ranked 32nd in overall electoral competitiveness.

Oregon

The Oregon legislative elections ranked 27th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania legislative elections ranked 38th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Rhode Island

The Rhode Island legislative elections ranked 15th in overall electoral competitiveness.

South Carolina

South Carolina will not hold any state senate elections in 2010.
South Carolina House of Representatives elections, 2010

The South Carolina legislative elections ranked 41st in overall electoral competitiveness.

South Dakota

The South Dakota legislative elections ranked 18th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislative elections ranked 45th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Texas

The Texas legislative elections ranked 46th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Utah

The signature-filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for seats in either chamber of the Utah State Legislature was March 19, 2010. The primary election day was June 22, 2010.

Utah's state senators are elected to a four-year term that begins on the first day of January following a November election.

Elections will be held in 15 of the Utah's 29 senate districts on November 2. The 15 districts where electoral contests take place are: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, 26 and 28. The incumbent senator is running for re-election in 13 of the 15 state senate seats that are up for re-election in 2010.

The Utah legislative elections ranked 10th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Vermont

The Vermont legislative elections ranked as 35th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Virginia

Virginia will not hold any state legislative elections in 2010.

Washington

The Washington legislative elections ranked as 26th in overall electoral competitiveness.

West Virginia

State senate elections
AL • AK • AR • AR • CA • CO • CT • DE • FL • GA • HI • ID • IL • IN • IA • KY • ME • MD • MA • MI • MN • MO • MT • NE • NV • NH • NY • NC • ND • OH • OK • OR • PA • RI • SD • TN • TX • UT • VT • WA • WV • WI • WY
Parties with candidates
Impact of term limits
Successful challengers
Defeated incumbents
State house elections
State senate elections
State legislative elections

The West Virginia legislative elections ranked as 9th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Wisconsin

The Wisconsin legislative elections ranked as 16th in overall electoral competitiveness.

Wyoming

The Wyoming legislative elections ranked as 23rd in overall electoral competitiveness.

References

[0] "How state legislative campaigns can change the country", April 7, 2010

[1] National Public Radio, "Midterm Elections Play Major Role in Redistricting", September 21, 2010

[2] Minnesota Public Radio, "Control over redistricting, 'a secret perk', at stake in election", October 1, 2010

[3] U.S.A. Today, "Possible redistricting lights up state races' fundraising", April 5, 2010

[gov1020-4] 5.0 ^5.1 Governing Magazine, "Republicans wave expected in Statehouses", October 19, 2010

[5] With Eye on Redistricting, G.O.P. Primed for Statehouse Gains

[6] Washington Post, "Yes, we are elected state legislatures, too" October 20, 2010

[ncsl-7] 8.0 ^8.1 Governing, "2010 State Legislatures: Democrats Buckle Up for Wild Ride", July 7, 2010

[storey11-8] 9.0 ^9.1 NCSL "Parties vie for control: Top 11 battleground states" October 11, 2010

[9] National Review "State Legislatures Looking Red," September 16, 2010

[jacobson2-10] 11.0 ^11.1 ^11.2 Governing "2010 State Legislatures: Forecast Worsens for Democrats," September 29, 2010

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