With just over two weeks to go before Election Day, a new NPR poll of the nation's top battleground districts finds Democrats gaining on the GOP in races that will probably determine which party wins majority control of the next Congress.
According to NPR, 47 percent of likely voters in toss-up districts plan to vote GOP on Nov. 2, compared with 44 percent who are leaning toward the Dems. That's a notable difference since the last NPR poll, in June, which found Republicans with an 8-point advantage over Democrats. The poll is telling in that NPR is actually polling solely within so-called swing districts, and therefore offering a better sense of where the 2010 battle actually stands.
Yet Democrats shouldn't be cheering yet. While the party has improved its 2010 standing, the number of competitive districts has dramatically expanded in recent months. Back in June, there were just 70 toss-up districts. Now there are 96—and Democrats currently hold 86 of those.
As have other polls, NPR's poll finds that Democrats still trail Republicans in terms of "enthusiasm" about the midterm elections—often an indicator of which voters will actually turn out to the polls. But both parties face trouble: A plurality of likely voters in both GOP and Democratic swing districts say they want "someone new" to win Nov. 2.
Another problem for Democrats: The party's attempt to paint tea party Republicans as "extremists" doesn't seem to be working in some districts. A separate poll of 10 swing districts by the Hill newspaper found that 44 percent of likely voters believe the Democratic Party is more dominated by extremists, compared with 37 percent who believe that about the GOP. The paper polled congressional districts in Arkansas, Hawaii, Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington state, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
(Pool photo of House Minority Leader John Boehner and Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Olivier Douliery/Getty Images)
Edited by Andrew Golis
Edited by Jade Walker
Edited by Ben Patterson
