Kentucky Derby

Archive for the ‘Kentucky Derby Contenders’ Category

Top tipster and handicappers at SBRforum are doing an analysis on each Kentucky Derby contender. As days go by in the Kentucky Derby prep race, and with the quantity of thosroughbred that have been excluded from the Kentucky Derby Post, makes the Derby Odds seem like not that certain. Everybody is waiting to see what the weather will be like. Dirt and mud on the Curchill downs track will definitevely have an effect on the wagering odds for this 136 Derby. Bodog Oddsmaker for the Kentucky Derby show that a conservative perspective is being taken until Saturday morning.

The Kentucky Derby Post Draw is out. This will change the Derby Odds substantially as some horses get excellent spots. The Deerby post positions are these:

1- Lookin At Lucky
2- Paddy O’Prado
3- Devil May Care
4- Conveyance
5- Jackson Bend
6- Mission Impazible
7- Discreetly Mine
8- Awesome Act
9- Dublin
10- Backtalk
11- Homeboykris
12- Ice Box
13- Sidney’s Candy
14- Noble’s Promise
15- Super Saver
16- Line of David
17- Stately Victor
18- American Lion
19- Dean’s Kitten
20- Make Music for Me

As Setsuko gets withdrawn from the list of contenders for the 136 Kentucky Derby, derby odds at SBRforum continue to vary and are now leaning towards new horses. Endorsement is also out of the Kentucky Derby due to a non-displaced condylar fracture in his right front leg. After working four furlongs in :47 2/5 Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs, he exited the breeze in discomfort and x-rays revealed the injury. Endorsement is expected to be sidelined for at least three months. His defection guarantees a spot in the Derby field for multiple graded stakes winner and Illinois Derby (G2) third-placer BACKTALK. Also MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is another horse that is unlikely to be part of derby racing this weekend. But you never know. The connections of Make Music for Me, who is presently 21st on the graded earnings list, are awaiting word on the status of Interactif, who is considered doubtful for Derby 136. If Make Music for Me gets in as expected, Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince will be the first horse excluded barring any further defections.The new list of Kentucky Derby Contenders:

American Lion

Jockey: David Flores
Trainer:Eoin Harty
Owner:WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:WinStar Farms LLC. and Dr. William Lockridge

Awesome Act

Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer:
Jeremy Noseda
Owner: Vinery Stables and Susan Roy
Breeder:
Flaxman Holdings Ltd.

Backtalk

Jockey:Miguel Mena
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Owner: Gold Mark Farm, LLC.

Conveyance

Jockey:Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zabeel Racing International
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Dean’s Kitten

Jockey:N/A
Trainer: Michael Maker
Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Devil May Care

Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Glencrest Farm LLC.
Breeder: Diamond A Racing Corp.

Discreetly Mine

Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.
Breeder: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

Dublin

Jockey:Terry Thompson
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: William Mack and Robert Baker
Breeder: Peter E. Blum & Gerry Dilger

Homeboykris

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Owner: Lazzinnaro, Bulger, Mandato, Diamond Pride, Tabraue, Sallusto, Teel, and Borislow

Ice Box

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Breeder: Denlea Park, Ltd.

Interactif

Jockey: N/A
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Wertheimer and Frere
Breeder: Wertheimer and Frere

Jackson Bend

Jockey:Mike Smith
Trainer:Nick Zito
Owner:Robert LaPenta and Jacks or Better Farm (Fred Brei)
Breeder:Jacks or Better Farm

Line of David

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Ike and Dawn Thrash

Lookin At Lucky

Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Mission Impazible

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Owner: Twin Creek Racing Stables
Breeder: Summer Wind Farm

Noble’s Promise

Jockey: Willie Martinez
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Owner: Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC
Breeder: Charles Kidder, Ben Kidder, and Nancy Cole

Paddy O’Prado

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Sidney’s Candy

Jockey: Joe Talamo
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Craig Family Trust
Breeder: Craig Family Trust

Stately Victor

Jockey:Alan Garcia
Trainer:Michael Maker
Owner:F. Thomas Conway and Jack Conway
Breeder:Adena Springs

Super Saver

Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:
WinStar Farm LLC

New Kentucky derby Contenders, new Kentucky Derby Odds, some contenders still without defined Jockeys, that’s what is going on this week as the 2010 Kentucky Derby pre-race develops. We recommend to take a look at SBRforum Kentucky Derby Future Odds Analysis to avoid being out of the loop on news and current events. The field has been changing since last week as Aikenite, Caracortado, Odysseus, were taken out, Sunday when Eskendereya the favorite, was scratched, and yesterday we had Rule taken out. So as some come and some go, the Kentucky Derby odds continue to change. This si the new list of contenders as of today:

American Lion

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:Eoin Harty
Owner:WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:WinStar Farms LLC. and Dr. William Lockridge

Awesome Act

Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer:
Jeremy Noseda
Owner: Vinery Stables and Susan Roy
Breeder:
Flaxman Holdings Ltd.

Backtalk

Jockey:N/A
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Owner: Gold Mark Farm, LLC.

Conveyance

Jockey:N/A
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zabeel Racing International
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Dean’s Kitten

Jockey:N/A
Trainer: Michael Maker
Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Devil May Care

Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Glencrest Farm LLC.
Breeder: Diamond A Racing Corp.

Discreetly Mine

Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.
Breeder: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

Dublin

Jockey:
Terry Thompson
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: William Mack and Robert Baker
Breeder: Peter E. Blum & Gerry Dilger

Endorsement

Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Shannon Ritter
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder: Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership

Homeboykris

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Owner: Lazzinnaro, Bulger, Mandato, Diamond Pride, Tabraue, Sallusto, Teel, and Borislow

Ice Box

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Breeder: Denlea Park, Ltd.

Interactif

Jockey: N/A
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Wertheimer and Frere
Breeder: Wertheimer and Frere

Line of David

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Ike and Dawn Thrash

Lookin At Lucky

Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Make Music for Me

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Alexis Barba
Owner: Ellen and Peter O Johnson

Mission Impazible

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Owner: Twin Creek Racing Stables
Breeder: Summer Wind Farm

Noble’s Promise

Jockey: Willie Martinez
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Owner: Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC
Breeder: Charles Kidder, Ben Kidder, and Nancy Cole

Paddy O’Prado

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Setsuko

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Richard Mandella
Owner: Wertheimer & Frere
Breeder: Wertheimer & Frere

Sidney’s Candy

Jockey: Joe Talamo
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Craig Family Trust
Breeder: Craig Family Trust

Super Saver

Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:
WinStar Farm LLC

BetUS Odds for Kentucky Derby

Devil May Care will run in the Kentucky Derby and is “unlikely” to even be cross-entered in the Oaks, trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday morning at Churchill Downs. Pletcher also said that Rule would not run in the Derby and that Interactif was “unlikely” for the Derby. If Rule and Interactif are not entered in the Derby, that would allow Jackson Bend (already in the current Kentucky Derby Contender’s list instead of Rule) and Backtalk to move into the 20-horse field based on graded stakes earning.

Changes in current Kentucky Derby Contenders are making the oddsmaker review and re-review the Kentucky Derby odds.

Eskendereya, the strong favorite for Saturday’s 136th Kentucky Derby, was withdrawn from the race Sunday morning because of swelling in his left front leg.

In the biggest shock of the 2010 Kentucky Derby, Eskendereya, the heavily-favored, Todd Pletcher-trained horse that was likely to go off at less than 2/1 after winning the Wood Memorial in stunningly powerful fashion, has been scratched from consideration for the race less than a week before post time. Pletcher isn’t being very specific, but a left leg ‘issue’ was detected after his workout on Saturday, and it didn’t resolve itself overnight.

The defection of Eskendereya makes more possible the chance of the filly Devil May Care joining Pletcher’s Derby brigade. John Velazquez, the regular rider of Eskendereya, is also the regular rider of Devil May Care.

Given the comparative lack of strength is this race and the dominance of Eskendereya this year this is a massive change, and a very disruptive occurrence. Here’s a look at six ways it is going to have a significant effect on the race:

Favorite curse – This is the second time in a row that the heavy favorite in the race has been injured and scratched within less than a week of the race. Last year, I Want Revenge was scratched with a leg issue of his own on the morning of the race. Racing is a sport filled with highly suspicious characters, so there are going to be all sorts of theories about favorites after this debacle.

Timid trainers – With a week left, and one more work remaining for many of the Kentucky Derby contenders, trainers are going to be treating their horses as if they were made of glass. Really, a three-year-old thoroughbred at this level is so highly tuned and fragile that he might as well be made of glass. Whether consciously or subconsciously, this is going to adjust the training schedules and approaches for at least a couple of the horses leading up to the race. That may not be a big deal, but it could also mean that a horse isn’t as ready as he should be. Watching for any significant variance from a pre-stated plan will be important.

Pletcher’s stable – This changes everything for Pletcher. He had seven horses under consideration for the Derby including Eskendereya. Though we aren’t inside his head so we can’t know exactly what he is thinking, we do know that this is going to cause a change of strategy. Probably Pletcher was going to use his other horses, at least to some extent, to help Eskendereya win. I’m not suggesting that he was going to blatantly use the horses to set the pace and box out other contenders, but I definitely expected more teamwork than you see in most races. Without a clear leader now, though, that’s very unlikely to happen, so it becomes easier to expect the best effort out of each of his horses.

The Kentucky Derby Odds will change
The question now is how many horses he will enter on Wednesday. You could argue that this makes him more likely to enter all six because the race is more wide open, or you could argue that it’s now less likely because the shape and outcome of the race is far less certain. Keeping a close eye on these Derby developments are the connections of horses currently on the bubble in terms of graded stakes earnings, most notably Jackson Bend, who finished second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Wood Memorial. If all the Pletcher horses, including Devil May Care, do run, that would keep Jackson Bend outside the top 20 in terms of graded stakes earnings. But if at least one of them comes out – or any other horse currently in the top 20 – Jackson Bend is in.

He may also be at least somewhat conscious of the fact that without Eskendereya he doesn’t have a top-level contender in his bunch. The more horse he enters, the, the bigger the chance that his streak of Derby futility gets even longer and uglier than the 0-for-23 that it already is.
A maximum of 20 horses can run in the Derby. If more than 20 enter the race Wednesday, graded stakes earnings are the criteria to determine the field. Following Jackson Bend in terms of graded earnings are Backtalk, Make Music For Me, and Pleasant Prince.

Lowering Kentucky Derby odds – This is going to have a profound effect on the odds of the horses that were seen to be close to Eskendereya, though not quite of the same caliber. Most significantly, Lookin at Lucky now settles into the favorite’s role. I was, almost literally, salivating at the prospect of betting on this horse at 5/1 or so – the price he was likely to be at with Eskendereya in the field. Now, though, he’s more likely to go off in the 3/1 range, and that’s just not as attractive. Sidney’s Candy, Awesome Act, Endorsement, and others will similarly be lower than they would otherwise have been. That will unfortunately making it harder to find value for bettors. Or at least it will if, like me, you weren’t totally convinced that Eskendereya was going to win anyway.

Pace – The biggest problem Eskendereya had going into this race was the pace. He likes to sit not far off the early pace before making his move. There is a whole lot of early speed in this race, so the early fractions should be blistering. Eskendereya was going to be faced with an issue, then – do you run fast enough to stay near the pace, or do you let them go, hoping that they tire themselves out and come back to you? In the earlier option you risk burning yourself out before you run, while in the latter option you might be too far out of contact with the group to menace in the stretch if the leaders don’t all falter.

For the other non-speed horses his absence could create another issue. Other trainers and jockeys knew the general race Eskendereya was going to run, and they knew he had the talent and class to try to do so, so they could have relied on his presence to keep things honest. With him out of the picture the pace scenario becomes even more crazy in this one. That’s good news for longshot bettors – every time a pace scenario is truly insane in the Derby, a longshot seems to come through with a massive payoff. Think Giacomo, Monarchos, and the like.

Handle – This Derby is now permanently scarred by the injury of Eskendereya. No matter who wins and how impressively he does so there will always be the sense that the race was won without the clear favorite in it. Given the lack of depth in this field, that absence is going to have a major effect on public interest in the race, and that in turn will effect TV viewership and handle. I’m not suggesting that we need to make a charitable donation to Churchill Downs, but there is going to be an impact.

As I talked about earlier, the odds on the new favorites are going to fall. That effect is likely to be even more profound than normal because the public was going to be so heavily drawn to Eskendereya that the others’ odds would rise as a result. Now the public won’t clearly know where to go, and in many cases won’t go anywhere.

Preparing for the Kentucky Derby

Two Kentucky Derby hopefuls turned in impressive workout times on a rainy Friday morning at Churchill Downs.The Dale Romans-trained Paddy O’Prado went five furlongs in 58 2/5 seconds on a track listed as sloppy. Paddy O’Prado finished second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The Nick Zito-trained Ice Box, who won the Florida Derby in his last start, covered four furlongs in 46 2/5 seconds. There was one minor incident as Derby and Oaks hopefuls worked after the first renovation break. The horn sounded at 8:38 a.m. when Colizeo — working with Oaks hopeful Ailalea — fell on the backstretch. Trainer Todd Pletcher reported that Colizeo and his exercise rider both were OK.

Tickets for the Kentucky Derby at PurchaseTix range from $57 to $10450 each Buy Kentucky Derby Tickets HERE
The Kentucky Derby field is limited to 20 race horses. Kentucky Derby entries are chosen based on their earnings.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

Official Kentucky Derby starters are to be announced.

2010 Kentucky Derby Contenders Hopefuls

•Aikenite
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Dogwood Stable (Cot Campbell)

•American Lion
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.

•Awesome Act
Trainer: Jeremy Noseda
Owner: Vinery Stables and Susan Roy

•Caracortado
Trainer: Mike Machowsky
Owner: Blahut Racing and Hi Lo Racing

•Conveyance
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zabeel Racing International

•Dean’s Kitten
Trainer: Michael Maker
Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

•Discreetly Mine
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

•Dublin
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: William Mack and Robert Baker

•Endorsement
Trainer: Shannon Ritter
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.

•Eskendereya (scratched)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Zayat Stables

•Ice Box
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta

•Interactif
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Wertheimer and Frere

•Jackson Bend
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta and Jacks or Better Farm (Fred Brei)

•Lookin At Lucky
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman

•Make Music for Me
Trainer: Alexis Barba
Owner: Ellen and Peter O Johnson

•Mission Impazible
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Twin Creek Racing Stables

•Noble’s Promise
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Owner: Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC

•Odysseus
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Owner: Padua Stables

•Rule (scratched)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.

•Setsuko
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Owner: Wertheimer & Frere

•Sidney’s Candy
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Craig Family Trust

•Super Saver
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.
2010 Kentucky Derby post time on May 2 at Churchill Downs TBA.