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Super Saver wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby

468x60 sbg Super Saver wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby

The weather turned out perfect for jockey Calvin Borel and Super Saver who won the 136th Kentucky Derby by nearly three lengths over Ice Box.One year after guiding improbable longshot Mine That Bird to victory in the Kentucky Derby, Borel gave a similar rail-skimming ride to Super Saver, sliding him inside of Noble’s Promise at the three-sixteenths pole and home to a 2 1/2-length victory in Kentucky Derby No. 136.

Leading up to Saturday’s 136th running of the Kentucky Derby, all eyes were on the two favorites, Lookin for Lucky and Sidney’s Candy.

Even the lone filly in the race, Devil May Care, was getting her fair share of press.

One horse though, the only horse with a spectacular win in horrid sloppy conditions, was lumped in with the handful of pseudo favorites in the 10/12 to 1 area. A horse that had made its way to the Derby through solid placings and races, but not with the fanfare of the top horses in the field.

And then they predicted rain for the Run for the Roses on Saturday, and people started mumbling. Then it actually started raining … and raining, and raining. Handicappers looked around at the field for a mudder, and there, sitting at the fourth post was Super Saver.

As the rain kept coming, and the track went from damp to wet to sloppy to swamp, handicapping eyes moved away from the favorites, and on to Super Saver.

 Super Saver wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby

People seemed to forget about jockey Calvin Borel, who now has won three of the last four Kentucky Derbys. He has mastered this track, and on Saturday, mastered this 8/1 horse to a masterful finish.Not only was it Borel’s second consecutive Derby victory, but it was an unprecedented third victory in this race in four years. He also won it in 2007 aboard Street Sense. Bill Hartack won three Derbies in a five-year span (1960-64). Borel – who finished third in the 2008 Derby aboard Denis of Cork – is the fifth jockey to win it in back-to-back years. Borel is the ninth rider to win this race at least three times. Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack have each won it five times while Bill Shoemaker has won it four times. Angel Cordero Jr., Kent Desormeaux, Gary Stevens, Issac Murphy and Earl Sande are the others to have won three Derbies. As he did last year, Borel kept his engagement to ride his mount in the race following the Derby and would not hold his press conference until after that race. "I was born to ride, sir,” Borel said. "This is what I wanted to do all my life. Every jock’s dream is to win the Derby. I’d never dream I’d win it three times. I work hard, I’m dedicated, I’m very blessed.”

Borel first got on Super Saver last November when the decision was made to run the colt in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill rather than the Remsen at Aqueduct. Borel guided him to a five-length victory then. In his only other time aboard the colt, Borel rode him a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The presence of Borel on Super Saver was probably the reason Super Saver went off as the 8-1 second choice behind Lookin At Lucky. Super Saver was listed at 15-1 on the morning-line.

borel kentucky derby Super Saver wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby

Sent off the 8-1 second choice in the full 20-horse field, Super Saver earned his first victory since taking the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) under the Twin Spires as a two-year-old. Borel was aboard for that ride as well, and this win rewarded supporters with payouts of $18, $8.80 and $6. Sent off at 11-1, Ice Box (Pulpit) rallied to take second over Paddy O’Prado (El Prado [Ire]), returning $11.20 and $8 while keying the $152.40 exacta. Paddy O’Prado was worth $7.40 at 12-1 and ended the $2,377.40 trifecta. Make Music for Me (Bernstein), who just got into the Run for the Roses at the last minute, took fourth over Noble’s Promise (Cuvee) and completed the stellar $202,569.20 superfecta (4-2-10-9). Following the top five under the wire was an unlucky Lookin at Lucky (Smarty Strike), who was bumped and forced to check repeatedly as the 6-1 favorite.

This was the first Derby victory for Todd Pletcher, who has failed with 24 previous entries in the Derby, never finishing better than sixth.

Here is the finishing order of the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby

1 Super Saver
2 Ice Box
3 Paddy O’Prado
4 Make Music for Me
5 Noble’s Promise
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Dublin
8 Stately Victor
9 Mission Impazible
10 Devil May Care
11 American Lion
12 Jackson Bend
13 Discreetly Mine
14 Dean’s Kitten
15 Conveyance
16 Homeboykris
17 Sidney’s Candy
18 Line of David
19 Awesome Act
20 Backtalk

Preakness Stakes Preview

Super Saver, who races in the silks of WinStar Farm, is now likely bound for the Preakness on May 15 at Pimlico in Baltimore as he takes the next step on the Triple Crown trail, according to the conditioner. Indications were that he’d ship him to Maryland on May 12. Both Ice Box and Jackson Bend will remain at Churchill Downs while their connections decide upon their next starts.Should he decide to pass on the Preakness with Ice Box, Zito said he’d have no trouble training the Florida Derby (GI) winner up to the Belmont Stakes. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that Robert Baker and William Mack’s Dublin likely would be headed to Baltimore for the second leg of the Triple Crown in the Preakness Stakes (GI) on May 15.

In the case of the Glencrest Farm’s filly Devil May Care, who finished 10th in the 20-horse field, Pletcher said she would not be considered for the Preakness. That was the case also with E. Paul Robsham Stables’ Discreetly Mine, who finished 13th.

But with ninth-place finisher Mission Impazible, owned by Twin Creek Racing Stables, the jury was still out. “We’ll take a couple of days and think about him running there,” Pletcher said.

 

Setsuko and Endorsement out of the Derby – Derby odds shift again

As Setsuko gets withdrawn from the list of contenders for the 136 Kentucky Derby, derby odds at SBRforum continue to vary and are now leaning towards new horses. Endorsement is also out of the Kentucky Derby due to a non-displaced condylar fracture in his right front leg. After working four furlongs in :47 2/5 Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs, he exited the breeze in discomfort and x-rays revealed the injury. Endorsement is expected to be sidelined for at least three months. His defection guarantees a spot in the Derby field for multiple graded stakes winner and Illinois Derby (G2) third-placer BACKTALK. Also MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is another horse that is unlikely to be part of derby racing this weekend. But you never know. The connections of Make Music for Me, who is presently 21st on the graded earnings list, are awaiting word on the status of Interactif, who is considered doubtful for Derby 136. If Make Music for Me gets in as expected, Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince will be the first horse excluded barring any further defections.The new list of Kentucky Derby Contenders:

American Lion

Jockey: David Flores
Trainer:Eoin Harty
Owner:WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:WinStar Farms LLC. and Dr. William Lockridge

Awesome Act

Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer:
Jeremy Noseda
Owner: Vinery Stables and Susan Roy
Breeder:
Flaxman Holdings Ltd.

Backtalk

Jockey:Miguel Mena
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Owner: Gold Mark Farm, LLC.

Conveyance

Jockey:Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zabeel Racing International
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Dean’s Kitten

Jockey:N/A
Trainer: Michael Maker
Owner: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey
Breeder: Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Horse Betting at sportsbook.com

Devil May Care

Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Glencrest Farm LLC.
Breeder: Diamond A Racing Corp.

Discreetly Mine

Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.
Breeder: E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

Dublin

Jockey:Terry Thompson
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: William Mack and Robert Baker
Breeder: Peter E. Blum & Gerry Dilger

Homeboykris

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Richard Dutrow, Jr.
Owner: Lazzinnaro, Bulger, Mandato, Diamond Pride, Tabraue, Sallusto, Teel, and Borislow

Ice Box

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:

Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Breeder: Denlea Park, Ltd.

Interactif

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Owner: Wertheimer and Frere
Breeder: Wertheimer and Frere

Jackson Bend

Jockey:Mike Smith
Trainer:Nick Zito
Owner:Robert LaPenta and Jacks or Better Farm (Fred Brei)
Breeder:Jacks or Better Farm

Line of David

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Ike and Dawn Thrash

Lookin At Lucky

Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman
Breeder: Gulf Coast Farms

Mission Impazible

Jockey: N/A
Trainer:

Todd Pletcher
Owner: Twin Creek Racing Stables
Breeder: Summer Wind Farm

Noble’s Promise

Jockey: Willie Martinez
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Owner: Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC
Breeder: Charles Kidder, Ben Kidder, and Nancy Cole

Paddy O’Prado

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Sidney’s Candy

Jockey: Joe Talamo
Trainer: John Sadler
Owner: Craig Family Trust
Breeder: Craig Family Trust

Stately Victor

Jockey:Alan Garcia
Trainer:Michael Maker
Owner:F. Thomas Conway and Jack Conway
Breeder:Adena Springs

Super Saver

Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.
Breeder:
WinStar Farm LLC

Kentucky Odds Experts unsure on picking a winner

If you took some time last week to start handicapping the Kentucky Derby, you know those notes should be in the trash by now. With Eskendereya out of the Derby odds have surely skewered the race, at least from a wagering perspective. A week ago, your bets most likely included Eskendereya in favor or against. Odds for the Kentucky Derby are now making you look at either different horses to key or different odds on your picks, meaning it’s back to the drawing board. Check odds for the Kentucky Derby Here
 
In the aftermath of Eskendereya’s defection, Lookin At Lucky looms as the morning-line favorite over Sidney’s Candy and that certainly presents a wagering predicament. Some expert handicappers at SBR Forum evaluate the possibility of American Lion to be a serious contender. If you really want to bet on Lookin At Lucky as a favorite, you must be willing to risk on a horse who always runs into trouble, and wish he will get a smooth as silk trip in a field of 20. Maybe as the 6-1 third-choice it would be a gambling option on him, but not as a favorite. There’s simply no value in doing that. Now certainly you must use him in the exotics since he has plenty of heart and will be charging at the end, but not for the win. Sidney’s Candy is a frontrunner trying dirt for the first time with off average times in his West Coast wins. You can probably use him very lightly in the exotics, if at all.
 
Expert Handicappers like Awesome Act or Dublin, depending on post position draw and odds. Both are coming off races that are better than they appear and they might blossom at just the right time to give your bank account some happy feelings. But there are horses you cannot count out still yet. Bodog Sportsbook has placed an eye on four horses for the 2010 Derby Racing (ordered from least to fav):

4. American Lion is Eoin Harty’s Kentucky Derby hopeful, a big son of Tiznow who has chosen the right time to start coming into his own. He won twice as a 2-year-old – including the $100,000 Gr. 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes on Nov. 21 – but did not find the winner’s circle again until the dirt-run $500,000 Gr. 3 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park on April 3. He hasn’t faced the same level of competition as, say, Lookin at Lucky, but is capable of a gritty performance that should serve him well.

3. Awesome Act is Jeremy Noseda’s Derby hopeful, a son of Awesome Again and currently 17th on the list of graded stakes earners. He competed exclusively on turf in his 2009 campaign and then made the successful switch to dirt in his 2010 debut, the $250,000 Gr. 3 Gotham Stakes on March 6. He showed he was capable of recovering from a poor break and rallying in the $750,000 Gr. 1 Wood Memorial on April 3, and with the two horses who beat him in that race out of the Derby (though Jackson Bend has an outside chance, needing another defection); Awesome Act could be a surprise factor in the Kentucky Derby.

2. Undefeated as a 3-year-old, Sidney’s Candy is a Candy Ride colt trained by John Sadler. He is one of many Derby contenders this year who employ a frontrunning style – he won all three of his races, including the $750,000 Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby, in this fashion. He defeated Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in that race and cemented his status as a definite threat. Whether he will be able to cope with the 1 ¼ mile distance is the big question surrounding this colt, but his pedigree suggests he should be more than capable.

1. With Eskendereya out of the Derby due to swelling in his leg, Lookin at Lucky becomes the new favorite. This son of Smart Strike has been atop many top contenders lists since 2009. The Bob Baffert trainee suffered his first loss in the $2M Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 7 but bounced back in his next two races and won his dirt debut, the $300,000 Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 13. Another eventful trip in the $750,000 Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3 resulted in a third-place finish, but showed off this colt’s grittiness and maturity. He is much deserving of his favored status.

You can also check the Bodog’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Victories of All Time, but we have to disagree in something here, Smarty Jones at the 2004 Derby showed a most impressive Derby Racing. Even better than Giacomo’s finish.

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby – Issues affecting the Kentucky Derby Odds

The first rule about the Kentucky Derby is that the favorite not always wins! Just because a particular horse is supposed to win, doesn’t make it happen. Afleet Alex was supposed to win, but the long shot, Giacomo won the Derby in a surprise run. Brother Derek was supposed to be a shoe in– but the magnificent Barbaro was unstoppable. It is only natural for a person new to thoroughbred racing to assume that the best horse will win the race. Finding out which horse that might be doesn’t seem too difficult a task. The program is loaded with information to assist people in making that decision. The problem is that while the best horse may win, more often it is another who gets his picture taken in the winner’s circle.

Triple Crown winners (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes) would be common rather than being an almost extinct species. There are many reasons for this phenomena. They have to do with form, tactics, and other matters that those new to racing don’t need to understand in order to have a fun day at the races and having fun is the most important thing. Of course, collecting money is much more fun than tearing up tickets so betting a few winners would be very nice. As long as we don’t get to greedy that really isn’t very difficult. The first thing that we need to do is admit that we don’t know enough about handicapping to try to decide which horse to bet on our own. We need help, and fortunately help is available in terms of the “tote board”. The “win” odds it displays for each horse are based upon how much money has been bet on them. As such, it represents the weighted hopes and fears of all those playing the race. Since they are more experienced than us, the “tote board” is a logical pace to find the help we need.

We could just let the “tote board” do our handicapping and bet the favorite in every race. In all likelihood that would let us cash some tickets. But the favorite only wins about 35% of the races. Not all of the losers can be chalked up to legitimate excuses such as bad racing luck. A good plan for those who are new to racing is to back the favorites who deserve to be favored and avoid those who are suspected of being mistakes.

This can be accomplished by following a few simple rules. Back the favorite unless:

1. His jockey hasn’t won at least 8-10% of his or her races (overall – not just at the current meet.) We want a capable rider but not necessarily the meet’s top rider. The horse’s trainer should pass the same test.

2. The race’s distance isn’t within a sixteenth-of-a-mile (one furlong) of being the same as the distance of the horse’s previous race, or a distance at which the horse recently won (or almost won.)

3. The horse’s last race was more than 35 days ago.

4. The jockey isn’t the same fellow who rode the horse in his last race unless the trainer is switching to a jockey who won (or nearly won) aboard the horse in the past.

Should this process identify a favorite as suspect, we suggest you apply the same tests to the second favorite and so on until a horse to play is found. Some of the horses eliminated will win, of course, but not at the same rate that those who are not eliminated. This process will eliminate some winners! Those eliminated, however, will not win as often as those who are not eliminated.

Dosage Index
This is by far the most popular way of winnowing out who can make the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles and who can’t. A simple explanation is that dosage figures a given contender’s distance potential based on stallions from the first 4 generations of that horse’s pedigree. It’s a genetically-based theory that takes into account not only how well certain ancestors of the horse did, but also how far back in the horse’s line they are. Points are awarded for speed and stamina of top-notch horses that often appear in contenders’ pedigrees. These super stallions are called “chefs de race.” Any horse with a dosage of 4.00 or less is supposed to be able to make the derby distance. So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005. Because of a reclassification of his sire, Strike the Gold would now qualify.

Dual Qualifiers
Dual qualifiers are those horses that not only have a dosage of 4.00 or less but also are within 10 pounds of the high weight in the Experimental Free Handicap rating. It is based only on races from the contenders’ 2-year-old season. The last Dual Qualifier to win the Derby was Silver Charm in 1997. This year’s dual qualifiers are Stevie Wonderboy, First Samurai, Brother Derek and Private Vow.

Raise A Native Sire Line
Twelve Derby winners so far had the horse Raise A Native in their sire line, meaning the line of male horses extending back directly from the sire. (In other words, the sire’s sire, and his sire, and his sire, etc.)

Juvenile Jinx
So far, no horse who has ever won the Breeders Cup Juvenile has ever won the derby. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 2-year-old champion was Stevie Wonderboy.

Geldings
Only one gelding has won the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. That was Funny Cide in 2003. This proves there are exceptions to these rules, and something can happen like with the previous rule.

Fillies
Only three fillies have ever won the Derby, Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980, and Winning Colors in 1988. There are no fillies in this year’s field.

Unraced at 2
The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2 was Apollo in 1882.

3-year-old Preps
The last horse to win without more than 2 prep races at age 3 was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. Also, the vast majority had at least a third place finish in their last prep, but Giacomo went on to win the Derby after having been 4th in his previous race. No horse has won the Derby without a race four weeks or fewer before it since Needles in 1956. Horses attempting it this year are High Fly and Noble Causeway.

Muscle Power
This is the theory the great Marvin Stone taught years ago. The problem with it is that it works best when the horses are observed in the Derby post parade, and that’s a little too late if you want to place a bet at the track. It’s simple enough. Just look at the flank muscles on the horse while he/she is walking. Do you see a ripple effect? Do the muscles there appear bigger, more well-toned than those of the other horses? Is the coat shiny and does the horse appear fit? Of course, this theory is very subjective, but from what I can see, it may work the best in judging how a horse will do that day.

Restlessness
This is a common sense predictor, but it can only be used immediately before the Derby. Churchill Downs on Derby Day is a place full of commotion. Horses are many times upset by the crowd. They skitter sideways in the post parade or just in the walk over from the paddock. They often have trouble loading in the starting gate. Obviously, a horse with his mind on the crowd does not have his mind on racing. Also, a horse who uses up his energy in nervous tension before the race doesn’t have as much when the race actually begins.

LH-X (Large Heart) Factor
This is a relatively new theory based on the book The X Factor: What It Is & How to Find It: The Relationship Between Inherited Heart Size and Racing Performance Handicapping the Kentucky Derby   Issues affecting the Kentucky Derby Odds published in 1997 and available at Amazon.com Handicapping the Kentucky Derby   Issues affecting the Kentucky Derby Odds. In a nutshell, it says certain horses have a mutant gene that creates unusually large hearts (Secretariat’s was estimated at 22 lbs. when the normal weight is about 8 lbs. for example) and that this gene appears to be sex-linked through the X chromosome. This means all of a large-hearted sire’s daughters and none of his sons will have the gene. The daughters will pass them down to a statistical 50% of both sexes of their progeny. The percentage chance a given horse has this gene is then cut in half by each successive generation, following the X chromosome. Horses who could have a gene passed down to them from a large-hearted sire in his/her pedigree are said to have “roads” to those horses. For those who wish to find out more, check out Pedigree Query.

Beyer Speed Figures
Beyers are numbers invented by Washington Post turf columnist Andrew Beyer as a way to compare how fast different horses are on different tracks on different days. The higher the number, the speedier the horse is supposed to be. These numbers may change drastically for a horse from race to race as the horse gets fitter (and thus faster) or has problems.

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