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Small is the New Green and Other Takeaways from IBS 2010
Marianne Cusato's Observations from IBS 2010
by Marianne Cusato
February 4, 2010
HousingZone
One year ago this month the building industry gathered and roamed the Las Vegas Convention Center in a state of shock and awe. In mid-January, the National Association of Home Builders once again hosted it's yearly convention – the International Builder's Show in Las Vegas. The feeling at this year’s show was markedly different. A year ago no one knew what to think or what to do. This year we are finding our sea legs and readjusting to our new realities. Here are my top 10 observations from IBS 2010 and predictions for the year to come:1. Small is the New Green. Everyone is talking about it – but no one knows what it means.
What is small? Designing a successful small home requires more than reducing the house on a Xerox machine. Successful small homes strike a balance between open and defined spaces. Important elements of a small home include: a point of arrival, ample storage, tall (but not cathedral) ceilings, windows on all walls, minimized circulation and a connection to the outdoors.
2. Virtual platforms steal the show
For a fraction of the cost of building a model home, builders and developers can commission photo realistic virtual homes to showcase floor plan layouts and finishes. "Oh, so you want the upgraded kitchen, but the base level flooring, here let's show you what that will look like...." Build one sticks and bricks show home, do the rest online. Save money and be able to show variables that were never possible in build model homes. See our example at http://www.BuilderConceptHome2010.com.
3. Aspirations of the 'American Dream Home' are still possible
What is the American Dream Home? It used to be a little cottage wrapped with a white picket fence. In recent years it has become a multi-gabled giant with a three car garage and Palladian window. The current homebuyers are smarter and more educated than ever before. Homebuyers are starting to see that 'lick and stick' architecture of the past several decades does not offer real value. Real value comes from elements you can touch and feel. Gables are being traded in for real front porches. One wall of windows on the front of the house is being exchanged for large windows spread around all sides of the house to provide cross ventilation and natural light at all times of the day. In the next decade we will see a new definition of the American Dream home, one that meets the needs of how we really live.
4. Adaptability enters the industry
In recent years homes have become disposable items, the minute our lives shift we sell it and move on. This has allowed the industry to build homes that only served one specific use - the starter house, the move up house, the empty nester home, etc. With the lack of available credit and our ability to move homes severely limited, we now enter a period when our homes will need to adapt to our changing lives. The home of the future is one that will adapt to your future; if you have a baby, if an elderly parent or a boomerang child comes to live with you - your home will need to accommodate your shifting life. Additionally, if you lose your job, you may need to rent out part of your home to offset the mortgage. Adaptable homes also open up the market to multiple demographics.
5. 'Drive 'til You Qualify' shifts to infill and a return to urban settings
In most American cities purchasing a cup of coffee or newspaper requires a car ride on a freeway. More and more we are seeing a shift from the sprawl of suburbs to more walkable urban neighborhoods. As builders struggle to get credit for larger projects, building on infill lots in existing neighborhoods closer to town become viable business models. This represents both an achievable scale of construction and marketable product for sales.
6. "Low Maintenance" out performs "No Maintenance"
Everyone wants the silver bullet – the home that is built and never has to be touched again. Unfortunately, this is a fallacy. The "No Maintenance" home is not a long term solution. No Maintenance is best the day it is installed and from that point forward moves closer and closer to a complete replacement. Building for long term investments now means building a homes that can be maintained with minimal effort and budget. If you can participate in the long term maintenance of your home it will last longer and hold more value.
7. Building Science helps to define "Green"
Green washing has taken over the industry. What is green? What is sustainable? It all depends who you are talking to. Leading Building Scientist Mark LaLiberte was on hand at IBS this year offering attendees a clear message for how to build green – good news – it doesn't require PV's on every home! Sustainability can be achieved with a tight – yet ventilated building envelope, blown in insulation, a compact building footprint, high efficiency windows, high efficiency equipment and HVAC equipment sized for the house.
8. Demographic Shifts dictate play
Until recent years, the two largest demographics – the boomers and the millennials – lived together in the big house on a cul-de-sac. Bad economy aside, the shifting life phases of these two demographic groups will mark a change in what and where we build. Boomers are looking to downsize now that the kids are out of the house so they can be more active. Millennials are just starting out and want to be close to the action. Both demographics are looking for compact plans in walkable communities. Overlay this with the current economy and we will see a major shift that will last well into any recovery that we may see in the future.
9. Competing with foreclosures
In 2005 all it took to almost guarantee a sale was a completed home. Today the industry is not so easy. Not only do we compete with other new homes, now we must complete with devalued assets and foreclosures. Why would anyone buy a new home when you can get foreclosure for a fraction of the price? Builders are starting to see adaptability, lower operating costs and livability add true value to our homes and set new houses apart from most if not all of the existing housing stock.
10. Fewer but more serious people
IBS 2010 was a ghost town compared to recent years. In the peak of the market, reports of attendance were well over 100,000 people – some saying it reached close to 130,000. The numbers for this year are hard to pin down – the word on the floor was attendance was about 40,000. Who were this years attendees? The general feeling was that the ones that are still standing are more educated and serious than in past years. Our numbers might be down, but those left standing seem to be ready to meet the challenges ahead.
Who knows where the economy will go. Some predict a recovery later this year or early next. Who knows, anyone in the market for predicting the economy is either stupid or brave – perhaps both. What we can do though is look at what impact the economy will have on the industry. How and what we build is no longer a given. This presents an amazing opportunity to retool and look at new ways of designing and building that are more efficient and better meet our needs. The home building industry has an opportunity to lead the way into recovery by setting aside the giant mega-mansions in exchange for a more compact, sustainable and livable homes. Everything is in place to make the necessary shifts. The only question is will we? I for one am cautiously optimistic. We'll check back with you in Jan. 2011 to see how things go.
Marianne Cusato, a thought leader in the fields of architectural and urban design, is known for her emphasis on building better – not bigger. She speaks on how good design impacts the quality of our lives and the sustainability of the earth's resources.
© 2010, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.
