Ohio State
By The Numbers - The (Post) Game
All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted for strength of opponent. No 1AA games or stats are included. For more detailed questions on how the numbers come about, click here.
Expected Points
Michigan got exactly what it wanted here. The pace was theirs. For the game, Michigan had a season high 15 drives and a season high 29 expected points. Contrast that to Ohio State who had 13 drives (made possible by the defensive TD) and only 21 expected points. That is a huge gap in expected points for Michigan. Ohio State's defense definitely deserves a lot of credit, but Michigan had the opportunities to get some points, even if 28+ was a bit unrealistic.Rush Offense
Predicted: +0, 35 carries, 130 yards 1TDActual: -5, 29 carries, 94 yards 0 TD
For the second straight game, the Michigan running couldn't find it's footing against an elite rush defense.
For the second straight game, Vincent Smith continues to stake a solid claim to next year's starting spot. Smith posted his second straight +4 (adjusted for competition and includes receptions) and was Michigan's most productive back both on the ground and through the air.
Pass Offense
Predicted: -6, 18/30 175 yards 2 TD 1 INTActual: -12, 24/43 224 yards 1 TD 4 INT
Michigan has only lost 21 points to interceptions thrown this year, which is best in the Big 10. And interceptions are where OSU has made their living this year, racking up a +54 on picks for the season. If Michigan can keep away from bad interceptions, and a pick up a lucky bounce or two, could be a ball game.About that...
Not quite HOLD ONTO THE BALL level jinxing going on there, but still, pretty disheartening to go back and reread it. The amazing thing is that the bounces generally went OSU's way and it was still a ball game. Good sign.
If you remove the INTs (wait, you can't do that?) the passing offense comes in at +0, not spectacular but still very good against this OSU pass defense.
The best news of Saturday might have been the continued emergence of Roy Roundtree as the much needed go to receiver for Michigan. Roundtree posted his fourth straight outstanding game with a +10. In the four games that Roundtree has seen the time and the balls come his way (Ill, Purdue, Wisconsin, OSU) he has averaged +7.7, which if held (understandably big if) would be the top mark in the Big 10 this year and 7th nationally.
Rush Defense
Projected: -3, 45 carries 210 yards 3 TDActual: +0, 48 carries 264 yards 1 TD
The yards ended up higher than projected, but in terms of the value, Michigan got a number of big stops against the Buckeye ground game to warrant a very solid break even performance.
Pass Defense
Projected: -1, 15/24 160 yards 1 TD 0 INTActual: -8, 11/19 54 yards 1 TD 1 INT
When the Buckeyes have thrown the ball less than 20 times, they average +2.2 and have had their two best passing games of the year. When they have thrown the ball more than 20 times, they have averaged -1.1 and had their 3 worst games of the year. You have to think that the gameplan is going to be to keep the ball on the ground.Ohio State got the low volume passing game that they wanted, although it didn't quite go as expected. Michigan's pass defense took the conservative Buckeye game plan and did quite well against it. Even without the pick (+3), the pass defense did quite well, picking up nearly 3 points of value on a pair of sacks. Even removing the sacks and the pack, the defense still posted an above average performance, an outstanding day for a much maligned group.
The Rest of the Picture
Special teams ended in a near wash. The missed chippy was a definite negative for Michigan, but it was offset by great play from both the punt and kickoff teams.On the turnover front, the net of Forcier's 5 turnovers and Pryor's single miscue netted a 13 point swing for Ohio State. A neutral result on turnovers could have very well been enough for the Wolverines on Saturday that I thought they needed to 2 swing play advantage to have a shot.
Predictions
Michigan 21 - OSU 31Almost nailed the spread, just a few less points scored than I thought.
Same story for Minnesota Iowa where my 27-14 pick was within a point of the spread but high on the total.
I nailed Wisconsin but underestimate Northwestern as my 31-17 pick missed the mark.
Also missed out on Purdue/Indiana. I had it a tight one at 28-27 and missed on an easy Purdue victory.
Another one that was not as close I expected was Penn State/MSU as PSU brought the posse and beat up on the Spartans. Still had the Nittany Lions covering, but didn't see a 4 TD win in my 28-24 pick.
Lost out on the Irish as well this week, picking them to cover against UConn, 35-28.
Overall - 3-3 ATS.
A little historical perspective...
Michigan is still 11-10-1 against Ohio State since John Cooper rolled into Columbus. Despite all the pain of the last several years, they still haven't made up for the Cooper era. I made this point on a comment right after the game, but I post this for two reasons: (1) To put things in historical perspective...the pendulum will swing back our way...you can be sure of that. (2) I just wanted to take this opportunity to say, Thank you again John Cooper...we love you! Please consider this your opportunity to add your thanks to the best coach Michigan has ever had...Mr. John Cooper.
Caption: "Are we really down 28-0? It must be Michigan week."-John Cooper
An open letter to Michigan Football.
By The Numbers - The Game
Rush Offense
Michigan Rush Offense: +2 (25th Nationally, 2nd Big Ten)Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
Western Michigan | 1 | 0.6 | 50 | 242 | 4.84 | 1 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 4.8 | 36 | 199 | 5.53 | 2 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | 13.0 | 37 | 399 | 10.78 | 6 |
Indiana | 4 | -2.9 | 47 | 153 | 3.26 | 3 |
Michigan State | 5 | -3.8 | 25 | 61 | 2.44 | 0 |
Iowa | 6 | 8.5 | 43 | 190 | 4.42 | 3 |
Penn State | 8 | 4.7 | 33 | 134 | 4.06 | 1 |
Illinois | 9 | -10.6 | 38 | 129 | 3.39 | 1 |
Purdue | 10 | 8.1 | 39 | 240 | 6.15 | 4 |
Wisconsin | 11 | -4.6 | 30 | 89 | 2.97 | 0 |
Ohio State Rush Defense: +2 (27, 3)
Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
Navy | 1 | -2.8 | 41 | 197 | 4.8 | 2 |
USC | 2 | 3.1 | 38 | 128 | 3.37 | 2 |
Toledo | 3 | 1.3 | 11 | 31 | 2.82 | 0 |
Illinois | 4 | 2.2 | 31 | 111 | 3.58 | 0 |
Indiana | 5 | 3.9 | 23 | 43 | 1.87 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 6 | 1.5 | 38 | 157 | 4.13 | 1 |
Purdue | 7 | 5.4 | 29 | 82 | 2.83 | 0 |
Minnesota | 8 | -0.8 | 25 | 144 | 5.76 | 0 |
New Mexico State | 9 | 1.7 | 27 | 58 | 2.15 | 0 |
Penn State | 10 | 7.7 | 28 | 89 | 3.18 | 1 |
Iowa | 11 | 1.0 |
23 | 77 | 3.35 | 0 |
After a slow start against Navy, Tresselball has been in full effect. Except for a mild let down vs Minnesota, Ohio State has been positive against the run since week 2. Michigan, on the other hand has been a bit all over the place this year. Michigan, although second in the Big 10 in rushing, has gone 4-4 in terms of positive and negative games vs non-MAC competition. On top of that, none of those 8 games have been within 3 points of 0.
Projected outcome: +0, 35 carries, 130 yards 1TD
Pass Offense
Michigan Pass Offense: +1 (44, 4)Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Western Michigan | 1 | 8.4 | 197 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 15 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 1.5 | 231 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 25 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | -7.7 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 |
Indiana | 4 | 4.7 | 216 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 15 |
Michigan State | 5 | -3.2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 19 |
Iowa | 6 | 0.5 | 124 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 |
Penn State | 8 | -6.1 | 114 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 18 |
Illinois | 9 | 2.3 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 17 |
Purdue | 10 | 4.3 | 190 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
Wisconsin | 11 | 6.3 | 174 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 22 |
Ohio State Pass Defense: +7 (9, 2)
Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Navy | 1 | -7.8 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 |
USC | 2 | 7.1 | 185 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 17 |
Toledo | 3 | 13.7 | 152 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 23 |
Illinois | 4 | 13.6 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 17 |
Indiana | 5 | 4.7 | 174 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 22 |
Wisconsin | 6 | 20.1 | 211 | 0 | 2 | 51 | 32 |
Purdue | 7 | 3.3 | 277 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 31 |
Minnesota | 8 | 10.0 | 142 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 19 |
New Mexico State | 9 | 5.6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 |
Penn State | 10 | 10.6 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 13 |
Iowa | 11 | -4.1 | 223 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 21 |
Ohio State presents a defense that, depending on how you look at it, either had a chink in the armor exposed last week to Iowa's backup qb, or a dominant pass defense that got a little complacent. Although this unit hasn't been as consistent as the rushing defense unit, it has generally wavered between good and great throughout the year.
Michigan hasn't been able to put up huge games (no Big 10 game as high as OSU's Big 10 average) but they have shown solid growth in the passing game over the last month or so, largely tied to the emergence of Roundtree.
Projected Outcome: -6, 18/30 175 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Rush Defense
Michigan Rush Defense: -2 (96, 9)
Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
Western Michigan | 1 | 4.3 | 21 | 45 | 2.1 | 0 |
Notre Dame | 2 | -3.7 | 29 | 159 | 5.5 | 1 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | -4.4 | 46 | 192 | 4.2 | 2 |
Indiana | 4 | -6.4 | 32 | 209 | 6.5 | 3 |
Michigan State | 5 | -1.3 | 47 | 206 | 4.4 | 3 |
Iowa | 6 | -0.8 | 32 | 98 | 3.1 | 1 |
Penn State | 8 | 3.1 | 38 | 178 | 4.7 | 0 |
Illinois | 9 | -12.6 | 52 | 414 | 8.0 | 4 |
Purdue | 10 | 2.3 | 28 | 130 | 4.6 | 3 |
Wisconsin | 11 | 0.5 | 50 | 254 | 5.1 | 2 |
Ohio State Rush Offense: +1 (33, 3)
Vs | Week | Value | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
Navy | 1 | -1.7 | 37 | 161 | 4.4 | 2 |
USC | 2 | -9.0 | 29 | 100 | 3.5 | 1 |
Toledo | 3 | 0.4 | 45 | 248 | 5.5 | 2 |
Illinois | 4 | 0.4 | 45 | 239 | 5.3 | 2 |
Indiana | 5 | 2.5 | 42 | 247 | 5.9 | 1 |
Wisconsin | 6 | 1.1 | 25 | 113 | 4.5 | 0 |
Purdue | 7 | -2.3 | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 1 |
Minnesota | 8 | 10.2 | 48 | 272 | 5.7 | 3 |
New Mexico State | 9 | 6.1 | 47 | 313 | 6.7 | 3 |
Penn State | 10 | 1.9 | 49 | 228 | 4.7 | 1 |
Iowa | 11 | 4.3 | 49 | 244 | 5.0 |
3 |
This is a unit that has killed Michigan all year long, and an Ohio State unit that has been their backbone. It is interesting to note that both teams have had 4 of their top 5 performances of the season in the last couple weeks. The difference is that Ohio State has gone from decent to really good and Michigan has gone from terrible to not totally terrible
Projected Outcome: -3, 45 carries 210 yards 3 TD
Pass Defense
Michigan Pass Defense: -1 (63, 7)Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Western Michigan | 1 | 9.6 | 251 | 1 | 2.0 | 41 | 25 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 0.3 | 336 | 3 | 0.0 | 42 | 25 |
Eastern Michigan | 3 | 1.0 | 100 | 0 | 1.0 | 27 | 16 |
Indiana | 4 | 1.5 | 258 | 0 | 1.0 | 39 | 22 |
Michigan State | 5 | 3.8 | 212 | 0 | 2.0 | 30 | 21 |
Iowa | 6 | 5.6 | 269 | 2 | 1.0 | 40 | 22 |
Penn State | 8 | -1.1 | 218 | 4 | 0.0 | 29 | 18 |
Illinois | 9 | -2.7 | 88 | 1 | 0.0 | 15 | 12 |
Purdue | 10 | -9.9 | 364 | 2 | 2.0 | 40 | 29 |
Wisconsin | 11 | -18.7 | 226 | 4 | 1.0 | 25 | 17 |
Ohio State Pass Offense: +0 (58, 7)
Vs | Week | Value | Yards | TD | INT | Att | Comp |
Navy | 1 | 3.7 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 18 |
USC | 2 | -6.1 | 173 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 12 |
Toledo | 3 | 4.9 | 274 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 19 |
Illinois | 4 | 0.6 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 8 |
Indiana | 5 | -1.0 | 131 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 20 |
Wisconsin | 6 | -4.5 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 |
Purdue | 7 | -5.3 | 202 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 20 |
Minnesota | 8 | -6.9 | 237 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 14 |
New Mexico State | 9 | 2.3 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 15 |
Penn State | 10 | 7.6 | 125 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 8 |
Iowa | 11 | 5.1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15 |
The Michigan pass defense has a very strong negative trend throughout the season. The good news? is that it's can't get much worse. Seriously, the Wisconsin game was the 996th best performance of pass defense out of 1114 that I have ranked this year. The interesting thing about OSU is that with Tresselball this year, the more they throw, the worse they do. When the Buckeyes have thrown the ball less than 20 times, they average +2.2 and have had their two best passing games of the year. When they have thrown the ball more than 20 times, they have averaged -1.1 and had their 3 worst games of the year. You have to think that the gameplan is going to be to keep the ball on the ground. Although this could be a positive, efficient game for OSU through the air, the knowledge that our pass defense could only be exposed to a minimum of attempts sounds pretty good at this point.
Projected Outcome: -1, 15/24 160 yards 1 TD 0 INT
The Rest of the Picture
Kicking: MichiganMichigan Kickoff: OSU
Ohio State Kickoff: Michigan
Michigan Punt: Michigan
Ohio State Punt: OSU
All Special Teams: Push
Pace: As we prepare for another fast vs slow, contrast in styles matchup on Saturday, I am wondering if picking up the pace could be a winning strategy? We are not the most talented team in this matchup and more possessions generally favors the better team, but I have to wonder if we can make the game move faster and take OSU out of their comfort zone (even if it exposes a weakness or three) if that could be a path to upset?
Turnovers: 55 points. That's the difference in value between Ohio State's turnover performance YTD (+38) vs Michigan's (-17). 55 points will get you a long way. It is also the hallmark of the grind it out strategy. You have to own the swing plays and there are no swing plays bigger than turnovers. Even with the large divide, there are positive signs. Michigan has only lost 21 points to interceptions thrown this year, which is best in the Big 10. And interceptions are where OSU has made their living this year, racking up a +54 on picks for the season. If Michigan can keep away from bad interceptions, and a pick up a lucky bounce or two, could be a ball game.
Predictions
Michigan 21 Ohio State 31The regular numbers are pretty stacked against Michigan this week, but with the type of tight game Ohio State likes to play, a key turnover or special teams play could present a window of opportunity to steal one this weekend.
Elsewhere:
Minnesota 14 Iowa 27
Wisconsin 31 Northwestern 17
Purdue 28 Indiana 27
Penn St 28 Michigan St 24
UConn 28 Notre Dame 35
OT: Sad News for Chris Spielman
Just saw a sad article about Chris Spielman:
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20091120/SPORTS0101/911200393/1126/sp...
I guess you can see what it is from the link name. As a former Detroit Lions great (and unfortunately an OSU great as well) I feel bad for him. He's actually a pretty decent color commentator and I wish him success.
It's things like this that put the game in some perspective.
Welcome to Insult-a-Buck
The Game is all about the warm spirit of sharing.
So, welcome to Insult-a-Buck, the thread where you can share the most creative, tasteless, degrading, disgusting, or offensive insults ever heard in the history of The Game.
Here’s a modest start*:
Justin Boren
--Is not the laziest person around.
-------------But most of those who are lazier are dead
Terrelle Pryor
--has a girlfriend who has been faithful to the end
-------------Unfortunately, he’s the quarterback.
OSU fans who are seen watching the game at a bar, nursing a beer…..
----------- --I hope your nipple gets soggy
*plagiarized from Mark Twain, anonymous, and Steven Wright, respectively.