Trojan Football Analysis

One of the more pleasant surprises in the passing game so far this season for USC has been the development of TE Anthony McCoy. Initially thought of as a blocking TE, McCoy has blossomed into quite the down field threat this year on a combination of seam routes and Y corner type routes. Currently through game six he ranks 2nd on the team in receptions with 14, 2nd on the team in terms of yards per game with 58.3, and is first on the team in terms of average per reception with an amazing 25 yards per catch. In the recent ND contest he lead the team with five receptions for 153 yards which I heard somewhere was a USC TE record for yards in a single game. All five pass plays came on ND blitz plays so this was very likely part of the game plan and no accident.

USC Passing Game Receptions Leaders 2009 YTD

I doubt that McCoy can maintain that sort of yards per catch average the remainder of the season but even if the YPC total gets cut in half it will still be an impressive figure. Fred Davis for example averaged 14.2 yards per catch during his breakout season in 2007. Davis also lead USC that season with 62 catches.

So far this season Anthony McCoy and Stanley Havili have done a nice job teaming with Matt Barkley to mitigate the unfortunate reality that a dependable #2 WR has not yet emerged. David Ausberry and Brice Butler have had their moments but those examples are rather episodic in nature than consistent so far. Ronald Johnson’s return may substantially alter the picture the remainder of the season as well. With Johnson as a legitimate down field weapon McCoy may see fewer deep balls thrown. Or in reality since USC will run 3 or 4 verticals at times it may not have much impact all. This development will be something to watch the remainder of the year. I don’t envy LB’s or safeties that have to go up against McCoy’s big athletic frame. Matt Barkely does a nice job of throwing the ball high and in places where only McCoy can get to it as well.

In the mean time here is a big salute to TE #86 Anthony McCoy for his performance versus Notre Dame (5 Catches for 153 yards). I’ll list what I can about the plays in a table down below.

As I mentioned in the previous post what caught my attention in the recent Notre Dame game was how easily the Irish appeared to move the ball in the second half through the air. When this happens fans and the media usually jump on the staff for making poor adjustments…Or they vaguely complain about “zone schemes” or “prevent defenses”. Sometimes the criticism is right and sometimes it is just arm chair quarterbacking mixed in with the benefit of hindsight and second guessing.

For those really interested in some of the details (i.e. let’s get beyond superficial cliches like “zone” or “prevent defense”) here is my best look into the 13 pass plays for ND that generated more than 10 yards in the USC game. Two passes came in the first quarter, two in the second quarter, four in the 3rd quarter, and five in the 4th quarter when ND was forced to throw and play catch up. Overall quarter by quarter here is how the ND passing attack fared versus the USC defense.

As you can see Notre Dame was forced to pass heavily in the 4th quarter resorting to 21 attempts. Only 52.4% of the passes were completed and 117 of the passing game yards were gained during that span. The third quarter was when Clausen heated up and completed 75% of his passes and had the higher figures for YPA and YPC. Some of that amount came on one big play however that I’ll show below.

For starters here is a video of the 13 pass plays that generated 10 yards or more gained in the entire game. Below the video I’ll outline what I could see on the plays. I can’t honestly get all the formations and alignments 100% correct due to the limited TV angle. I can get 80 or 90% of the way there with some observation and deduction. So if you spot something suspicious in the following breakdown I probably have my own doubts on the play as well. The following represents my “best guesses” given limited information.

ND Passes Gaining 10 Yards vs. USC

Now here are my observations regarding each play and what really happened. The respective teams of course have an additional layer of detail they can generated with SL & EZ viewing angles.

1.  Q1 1st & 10 on the 43. Notre Dame in a balanced Twin / Pro WR alignment with Clausen under center and the RB in an Ace alignment. USC runs a corner blitz by #15 and Clausen reads this well and throws to the vacated area in the flats to #23. With a few tough yards after catch this nets close to ten yards.

2. Q1 4th & 2 on the 27. Notre Dame runs the fake field goal play that USC ran versus Washington back in 2006. Pete Carroll thinks this play has been outlawed by the Pac-10 due to its deceptive nature. Notre Dame is obviously not part of the Pac-10 so the point may be moot. Regardless ND executes it perfectly and the player on the sideline is not noticed. 25 yard gain results that leads to an ND TD.

3. Q2 2nd and 9 on the 18. Notre Dame is in a balanced 2×2 WR set (maybe one is a flexed TE?) and the QB is in shotgun with the back set strong. USC lines up in Double Eagle up front with a 2 high safety look pre-snap. Post snap USC blitzes 1 LB on the play and the secondary looks like it was rotating to 3 deep. The pass is completed to the sideline vs the CB for 12 yards.

4. Q2 1st & 10 on the 43. Notre Dame is balanced in a Twin / Pro WR alignment with the QB in shotgun and the back offset weak. USC aligns up front in the Double Eagle front with what appears to be 1/4, 1/4, 1/2 combo coverage in the secondary (Cover 4 to the boundary and Cover 2 to the field and twin receiver). Notre Dame Clausen wisely immediately throws the bubble screen to the uncovered slot WR. USC corner is somewhat chop blocked and unable to make a play forcing the safety & LB to converge. Result is an easy 12 yard gain to Tate.

5. Q3 1st & 10 on the 40. 2 x2 WR alignment with the QB in shotgun and the back offset strong.  Hard to tell but USC looks to be in an over front with Cover 2 pre-snap. A quick sideline out route is completed versus the retreating corner for about 11 yards into the boundary.

6. Q3 2nd & 13 on the 40. Notre Dame lines up in a 3×1 WR set with the QB in shotgun and the back offset weak. USC aligns in a Double Eagle front and shows blitz off the edge pre-snap. Did not get a good look at the secondary pre-snap. Regardless post snap the Trojans only rush the middle three and drop eight into coverage. Under pressure Clausen exits the pocket scrambles and spots a WR coming back to him. Gain of 11 yards.

7. Q3 2nd & 1 on the 44. Notre Dame lines up in a 3×1 WR set with the QB in shotgun and the back offset weak. USC aligned in a Double Eagle up front and was in Cover 1 in the secondary. Notre Dame ran a five step drop back pass with a deep go route to the end zone. WR #23 was isolated one on one with Josh Pinkard who was beaten by a half step on the play. Pinkard correctly played the WR’s hands and attempted to swat away the ball which is placed perfectly by the QB. Center field help from Taylor Mays was a step late and he attempted to hit the WR rather than play the ball. Nice pitch and catch by ND…tough to fault USC on a play this well executed.

8. Q3 2nd & 20 on the 31. Notre Dame  lines up in a balanced 2×2 WR set with the QB in shotgun and back offset strong. USC aligns in a Double Eagle up front with Cover 1 in the secondary pre-snap. Post snap it looks like USC is rotating into Cover 3…some type of a curl route is completed to WR #23 versus USC corner.

9. Q4 1st & 10 on the 30. Notre Dame lines up in a 3×1 WR formation with the QB in shotgun and back offset strong. Looks like USC is in an under front with Cover 2 pre-snap in the secondary. Coverage is excellent downfield and QB is forced to dump the ball off to the running back. LB #6 Smith is a shade late to read the dump off and missed the tackle resulting in yards after catch and a 14 yard gain.

10. Q4 3rd & 12 on the 15. Notre Dame aligns in a 3×1 WR set with the QB in shotgun and the back offset weak. 4 DL rush +1 LB on a zone blitz. Looks like 3 deep secondary so maybe a standard 3-3 zone on the zone blitz…A skinny post route is completed to the WR #23 at the goal line for TD.

11. Q4 1st & 15 on the 16. Notre Dame aligns in a 3×1 set with the QB in shotgun and back offset weak. Looks like USC is in an under front with Cover 2 in the secondary. Coverage appears to be excellent post snap and QB is forced to check down to running back as relief valve. Again LB #6 Smith is a tad slow to react and misses the tackle on the back who escapes for a 12 yard gain.

12. Q4 2nd & 10 on the 42. Notre Dame aligns in a 1×3 set (trips into boundary) with the QB in shotgun and back offset weak. USC appears to be in a Double Eagle front with Cover 2 pre-snap in the secondary. Post snap USC runs a +2 blitz with two LB’s coming. Pass is completed over the middle to single split side WR #23 making a good grab isolated versus #36 Pinkard.

13. Q4 4th & 10 on the 29. Notre Dame aligns in a balanced Twin / Pro WR set with the QB in shotgun and the back offset strong. USC appears to be in an over front and I did not get a good look at the secondary. Post snap MLB comes on a delayed blitz. Pass is completed to WR #82 isolated one on one versus CB #15 with deep safety help.

Summary

Only once on these 13 big pass plays did USC run anything resembling a true prevent defense with 3 DL rushing and 8 men dropping into coverage. Clausen escaped the 3 man pressure on that play, scrambled and found an open man. Conversely USC did run some type of +1 or +2 blitz on 5 of the 13 plays…all five saw completions by Clausen. Notre Dame had two completions in the game of over 21 yards. One came on a trick fake FG play that caught USC off guard. The other come with corner back #36 Pinkard in straight man coverage versus WR #23 for the Irish. Clausen made some very good throws and reads in the game. I doubt USC will face a QB of his caliber again this season unless something funny happens in the BCS rankings. Jimmy Clausen strikes me as very improved compared to the previous two seasons and clearly had more talent around him this season than the previous contests. My respect for his skill level is considerably up after this most recent game.

USC held on to narrowly defeat Notre Dame 34-27 after establishing a comfortable 34-14 lead in the early fourth quarter. For the third game in a row now the offense did a nice job in the vertical passing game and racked up 501 total yards overall on offense. I’ll post some of the bigger passing plays by Matt Barkley and the receivers in a day or so.

The interesting story of this game for me at least will be how the defense for once did not perform as expected especially in the second half.  In the 3rd and 4th quarters USC gave up drives of 78 yards, 68 yards, and 13 yards for TD’s. Notre Dame also had a 74 yard drive as well that did not result in a score but ended with the Irish on the goal line attempting to tie the game. In the first half Notre Dame gained 124 yards and in the second half they gained an eye popping 272 yards.

I’ll take a closer look at the four ND drives I mentioned above and what happened on defense. I’m not interested in the usual superficial cliches about zones or prevent style defenses.  Rarely are those on track…In a day or so I’ll take a closer look at some of the ND formations as well as the Jimmy Clausen passes and runs types that worked versus the Trojans.

At the high level here the ND passing game and how it shook out in terms of a histogram. 19 times Clausen was either incomplete or had zero yards on the completion. On the other end of the spectrum he also completed 13 passes of ten yards or longer. Some were against man coverage as well as two deep zones. I don’t think USC blitzed much in the game out of respect for Clausen’s decision making skills and arm strength.  I’ll see what happens when I look at the plays in detail one by one.

Here are the completed ND passes organized by gain from highest to lowest. Incomplete passes are not listed

Here is a quick glance at the main USC offense trends in comparison to previous squads in the Pete Carroll era. There are fewer bright spots than on the defensive side of the ball but I am fairly optimistic about the remainder of the season given the performance since the return of Matt Barkley.

Total offense in terms of yards per game is not off as much as one might think. The 430 yards per game favors comparably with 2007 and is fairly close to the average for the overall period. The first game of the season with 620 though is helping pull up the average. With more of a down field passing attack this number may hold steady or slightly improve the rest of the year. Performance over the next two road games will be a good indicator for the team.

One of the reasons I am fairly optimistic that the total yards per game number might improve however is because the yards per play figure is actually quite good at 6.7 yards per game. In reality that is the second best of the PC era by a small margin. The problem has been that the “tempo” of the offense has been off in some games and fewer plays per game have been run than in previous years. The poor third down conversion percentage also has cut down on the number of plays per game as well…

As expected the brighter spot in the offense has generally been the running game.  At 208 yards per contest it is the second best of the PC era and it has a slight lead on the 2007 and 2008 squads. As the passing game continues to improve this figure may drop though over the next several weeks.

Rush offense in terms of yards per carry is off to a healthy start as well.

The passing offense on the other hand does not have a lot of bright spots overall. The current 222.6 yards per game average is the lowest of the PC era trailing even the woeful 2001 squad. The positive news is that the attack over the last two game with 247 yards and 283 yards passing is at least moving in the right direction. The next few games will be interesting to watch in this regards…

Passing completion is off a few percentage points and the staff really likes to get this number up in the 65% range. I don’t know if that figure can be reached this season but getting it north of 60% would be a good first step.

The passing efficiency metric as measured by the NCAA is not that high either compared to recent seasons…

On the bright side the YPA number for the passing game is not bad at all. A few more passes per game and a high completion rate will bring up the yards per game pretty easily if the attack continues to improve.

The YPC figure surprisingly is good as well despite the lack of a vertical passing game in the first couple of contests. At 13.9 yards per completion it is slightly higher than the 2003 figure.

3rd down conversion is one of the biggest problem areas for the offense. The past few seasons the figure has been in the 45% range and the current level is the lowest of the PC era. Currently the Trojans rank a woeful 113th in the country in this statistic.  This stat combined with too many turnovers is usually a recipe for losses on the road.

4th down conversion percentage is slightly better but there are relatively so few of these per game that the number can easily move up or down still over the next couple of games.

Another problem area for USC has been turnovers by the offense. At an average of 2.2 per game so far this season it leads all previous years. Both fumbles and interceptions need to incrementally go down especially in the upcoming road games versus key opponents.

As widely known scoring offense is another area that is lagging this season in comparison to recent years. A few blown red zone opportunities are keeping this figure under the 30 point per game mark. Even with the converted red zone scores however USC would be a touchdown per game off the healthier levels of 2004 and 2008 squads for example. It will take a good push the remainder of the way to get this number at least past the level of the 2006 and 2007 squads.

Here is a quick look at the main USC defense trends for 2001 to 2009 through game five versus California. The 2009 defense is doing quite well in most regards and there is even a nice uptick in sacks this season. Still no sign of a turnaround in terms of generating turnovers though. Here is the summary info and then below the data sets are expressed in bar charts for easier viewing.

Scoring defense is so far trending nicely and just dips under the average allowed last season. If this holds up I’ll really be impressed but it will be a couple more games before we’ll really know how the unit is holding up. Notre Dame will present a good passing offense and Oregon a very good rushing offense. Those two games will be great indicators of how good this unit really is compared to previous years.

In terms of yardage allowed the 2009 unit is just behind the impressive 2008 squad…

Yards per play allowed is about the same as last season.

Rushing defense so far has a slight advantage on 2008 and is close to the benchmark established by the 2003 defense. NCAA stats subtract sack yardage off the run game so this metric also includes that aspect of defense.

Rush defense in terms of yards per carry is very stout as well and follows the same pattern as above.

The 2008 unit really clamped down in the passing game. The 2009 senior laden unit is good as expected but is currently about 40 yards behind the 2008 squad.

Pass defense in terms of yards per attempt allowed is strong and only trails 2008.

Pass defense in terms of Yards Per Completion allowed is about in line with previous seasons but so far trails but the 2007 and 2008 squads in terms of benchmark performance.

Pass efficiency defense is solid and comes close to the mark established by the 2008 squad.

So far the 2009 is doing a very good job in terms of defending passes in terms of percentage allowed. Unfortunately there have been a few too many 3rd and long completions allowed but other than those there is not much to complain about.

Tackles for Loss (TFL’s) in terms of average per game are running neck and neck with the 2003 squad for the best mark of the Pete Carroll era. This will be quite an amazing achievement if it holds up given all the new members in the front seven.

Here is the same number expressed as a total. All previous years are complete season marks of course while 2009 is just for five games year to date.

Sacks per game is trending well for a change. The current level of 4.2 per game matches the pace established by the 2003 squad.

The 2003 squad wound up with 55 for the season and it will be impressive if that level is achieved again. To put things in perspective the 2009 unit already has 21 sacks on the season while the 2008 squad only registered 29 for the entire season…Credit the front seven for good pressure and the secondary for keeping receivers covered long enough to allow the sack to develop.

The one major blemish on the 2009 team so far is in regards to turnover performance. The offense is creating a few too many and the defense is not taking enough away. USC is negative in terms of turnover margin which has never happened in the Pete Carroll era. I suspect this will turn positive eventually by a small margin but opponents have learned to protect the ball versus USC it appears for the fourth year running…

Here are the average number of turnovers produced by the defense per game the past few seasons. It would only take one more interception and a half a fumble recovery per game to turn this metric around…

3rd down conversion defense is solid except for the mistakes make in the Washington game.

After game eight or so I’ll look at these again and see how the numbers change. Once past Notre Dame and Oregon that will tell a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of the overall unit on defense.

The 2009 USC passing game got off to a decent start versus San Jose State but it then staggered for the next two contests versus Ohio State and Washington. As noted widely  in the press the 110 passing yards versus Washington was the lowest figure for the Pete Carroll era. I have no doubt that the coaches simply felt more secure with the rushing side of the offense than they did with the passing game. Aaron Corp also simply does not possess the arm strength of Matt Barkley. The past two games since Barkley returned from injury have seen a fairly good uptick in total passing yards and a conspicuous attempt to get more vertical in the passing game.

In recent historic perspective the 2009 passing attack in terms of yards per game is off to a pretty poor start averaging only 222.6 yards per contest. That figure is currently lower than any other other season in the Pete Carroll era. However I suspect that number will improve as the season goes on. Getting the passing game consistently north of 250 yards per game and keeping the rushing game over 200 yards per game would be a good recipe for the Trojans to average in 2009. The next couple of contests will be a good test for the offense to see if it can maintain a better sense of balance.

In the recent Cal game there were seven passing plays that resulted in gains of 16 yards or more. Two of the plays were just simple bubble screens with fake inside zone runs out of shotgun that lead to big yards after catch by the receiver Damian Williams. TE’s Anthony McCoy and Blake Ayles also had big receptions over the middle it the contest. I’d hate to be an opposing safety and have to match up with either Blake Ayles or Anthony McCoy. Fullback Stanley Havili turned a nice sideline fade route into a 56 yard gain after a missed tackle. Damian Williams had another couple of nice down field catches as well. Generating more of these types of passing plays (and others) will be key for the offense in the remaining contests. For anyone interested here is a short video clip of the bigger passes in terms of yardage gained versus California.

In 2009 the USC rushing attack was expected to lead the way for the Trojans in the early part of the season. And for the most part the rushing game has done its job. A couple times the attack has failed to deliver on 3rd or 4th and short yardage situations but overall there are not many complaints in this department.

In terms of historical comparison this rush attack is hovering at or above the levels of the 2007 and 2008 squads so far in terms of rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry. Both 2007 and 2008 hovered at the 200 yards per game mark before dipping under it at the end of the season.

Year to date the rushing totals leading up to the 208.0 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry are as follows:

The yards gained bounces around quite a bit depending upon the strength of the opponent’s defense (e.g. Ohio State strong / San Jose State weaker) or the game plan intent (throwing a bit more in the Washington State and Cal games).

In the Cal game USC had five runs of greater than 10 yards at opportune times. Joe McKnight had three of the bigger runs and Allan Bradford had two tougher yardage runs. Here is a short video of the +10 yard runs in the recent game versus California.

With two weeks until the next game I’ll probably string things out a bit with regards to reviewing the USC vs. Cal game. In the mean time however here is a short comparison of the 2008 and 2009 USC defensive units after five games. Surprisingly the 2009 squad is keeping pace with the 2008 defense quite well *so far*. Strength of schedule of course might account for part of the accomplishment  and we’ll see how it looks after games at Notre Dame and at Oregon for example. Still the fact that the USC defense is this close (or even leading) in several metrics after replacing so many starters is a great story.

The 2009 unit has leads in generating negative plays whether measured as sacks or tackles for losses. The 2008 squad has a slight lead in total turnovers forced (ten to eight) with the differential stemming from a 7 to 3 lead in interceptions after five games. In terms of rush yards allowed the 2009 unit has a slight lead due mostly from the fact that Jacquizz Rodgers and Oregon State gashed USC last season in one game for 176 yards on the ground. The 2008 unit has the lead in passing yards allowed. Total yards allowed is a very slight 2.4 yards allowed edge to the 2009 team while the 2008 squad has a 0.4 advantage in terms of points allowed per game.

Anyway five games is just enough to start to get a feel for some trends. I’ll take a more detailed look at this later next week as time allows.

I had an invite to answer some questions from Avinash of California Golden Blogs via e-mail. I’ll give a shot at answering some of his questions and putting up some images and video. Please visit the above site however to see the final product they’ll probably add some more video and relevant information from their point of view on the contest.

1) Could you explain the basic concepts of USC’s simple but effective offense? Have you seen any variation between the way Sarkisian and current OC John Morton have designed their game plans? Continue reading USC vs Cal Game Questions