BlogsWeek 3 Review - Inside the Numbers
by mgrex03
on Oct 1, 2009 12:08 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
2 comments
Complete domination by the Colts. You have heard the media rave about well the Colts played Sunday night in the desert, but it was all expected from yours truly. I wasn't nervous before the game, and you shouldn't have been either, if you saw the numbers. The Cardinals were middle of the pack defending the pass, and that's exactly how they looked on Sunday. They also were not the passing juggernaut so far this season that their reputation has given them. Kurt Warner completed a lot of passes against Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have done that before.
I've only got one piece of random trivia, and it took me a lot longer to get than I thought. Over the past 2 weeks, the Colts won on the road on Monday night, then went on the road again the following week and won. Since 1980, teams that have played back-to-back road games, where the first game was on Monday night, have won both games only 19 times in 89 chances. It's only happened 3 times since 2002, twice by the Colts (anyone know the other time the Colts did this?). It happens about 3 times a year, which seems high to me. That is a rough two weeks.
Jump over to the other side to see all the numbers...
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Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 3, Link for Week 4
by mgrex03
on Sep 30, 2009 8:42 PM EDT
in Fantasy Football
5 comments
How far into the season can we start needling Stampede Blue readers about getting beat by a Coin Flip? If it is after 3 weeks, then I'm going to run off and hide, as I'm 2 games behind my trusty coin. There are also 4 "experts" who have less picks correct, and 2 others that are tied at 31/48. Make sure to take a look at the Straight Up standings to see if you are as embarrassed as I am right now. Don't count anyone who missed a week, as they will clearly be behind the coin.
This week we had 84 players pick in the Straight Up contest, and congratulations go out to 3 players, who all got 14 games right:
- Gmachine!
- jammer6303
- JustinPugh
Overall after 3 weeks, here's the Stampede Blue Readers Leaderboard:
| Straight Up | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Total |
| bluegirl | 14 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| Cassieper | 10 | 13 | 13 | 36 |
| emiller17 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 36 |
| Gmachine! | 14 | 8 | 14 | 36 |
| jahren | 11 | 13 | 12 | 36 |
| jammer6303 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 36 |
As far as Against the Spread goes, we had 43 players, and congratulations go out to 2 players for getting 13 games right:
- bobzilla3
- goblue
Overall after 3 weeks, the Stampede Blue Leaderboard (all trailing Bill Simmons' 35):
| Against the Spread | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Total |
| shoein | 11 | 12 | 10 | 33 |
| ColtsFanNChiTown | 10 | 12 | 11 | 33 |
| The Lawn Wrangler | 9 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
| MrNFL | 10 | 11 | 10 | 31 |
| bobzilla3 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
There are so many players this year, it's going to be tough making up a bad week, so make sure to get your picks in, and make sure they are not the same as mine. Or just flip a coin, since it's not doing half bad.
Full Standings are after the jump. I'll give Shake the link to the picks to post on Sunday, as I'll be in the 300 Level of Lucas Oil Stadium. I can't wait.
Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 3
Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 4, open until 1:00 ET Sunday
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Week 4: Wednesday Injury Report
by shake n bake
on Sep 30, 2009 5:55 PM EDT
in News
12 comments
7 players sat today. Two with previously unknown injuries. Keyunta Dawson missed practice with a foot injury and Chad Simpson sat out with an injury to his abdomen. The other 5 are known or likely to be out for Sunday. Anthony Gonzalez (knee), Dwight Freeney (quad), Bob Sanders (knee), Gary Brackett (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (hamstring) sat out today.
On the bright side Jerraud Powers' groin soreness wasn't an issue today after costing him a game and some practice time earlier in the year.
Colts.com link
Oesher has injury quotes from Hayden, Caldwell and Freeney. Hayden all but rules himself out for Sunday, but hopes it will be the last game he'll need to miss with the lingering hamstring issue. Freeney (as previously reported) refuses to rule himself out for Sunday and sets no timetable in accordance with his attitude towards injury recovery;
‘Tomorrow I’ll be ready. If it’s not tomorrow, it’s going to be the next day.’ That’s how I’m going to take it. . . . The intensity you have to be into the game has to be twice as much as practice, so I’m going to take it day by day. I’m going to wake up every morning thinking I’m ready. If I get out of bed and I’m not feeling it, then I have another day to do."
Caldwell continues to refer to Gary Brackett's situation as "day to day" and says Sanders and Gonzalez are making progress.
In addition Phil B reports that Eric Foster will be rotating in at defensive end this week, Tom Santi cleared waivers and was added to the practice squad, Kyle DeVan will continue to rotate in at RG and that Phillip Wheeler is in the mix at DE (but Phil doesn't expect to see him unless the DE cupboard is truly bare).
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Dwight Freeney is tough
When they say he is a fast healer, they aren't joking. Freeney says he is "day-to-day" with a strained quad and that he won't rule himself out for the Seattle game. I doubt he plays on Sunday, but I would not be surprised if we see him against the Titans. He is the anti-Bob Sanders when it comes to injuries.
Advanced Stat Rankings Roundup
by shake n bake
on Sep 30, 2009 1:47 PM EDT
in Analysis
3 comments
The Colts are well liked by my two favorite statistical systems. Football Outsiders' DVOA (actually VOA and DAVE at this point of the season) and Advanced NFL Stats' Win Probability.
The Colts rose to 7th in VOA (which is not adjusted for opponent), and sit at 2nd in DAVE (which is, this week, a 55-45 blend of preseason DVOA projection and current VOA).By VOA the Colts have the #4 offense (#1 passing, #25 rushing), the #13 defense (#10 passing, #22 rushing) and the #21 special teams (with positive contributions from kickoffs and punts and negative values for returns and FG/XPs).
Looking forward the Colts future schedule ranks the 11th hardest in the league, but thanks to their divisional lead and high DAVE rating they are still projected at the top of the league in estimated wins (11.8), playoff odds (94.1%), odds of winning their division (86.9%), odds of a 1st round bye (60.5%) and are second to the DAVE favorite Ravens in SB win odds (15.4% to the Ravens 18.1%).
Over at Advanced NFL stats, the Colts are their favorite with a Generic Win Probability (the odds they'd beat an average team at a neutral site) of 80%. The Colts offense is ranked at the top of the league, and their defense 11th. The Colts have the leagues top passing efficiency and 25th ranked run efficiency, with a near average rate of turnovers. On D they have the #4 pass D and #18 run D. The Colts are the 3rd least penalized team in the league so far.
3 comments
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Reading the stats to understand the Seahawks
by BigBlueShoe
on Sep 30, 2009 12:51 PM EDT
in Analysis
9 comments
The Seattle Seahawks went through a transition very similar to what the Colts worked through this past off-season. Their Hall of Fame bound head coach Mike Holmgren resigned from his job, passing the head coaching responsibilities on to his chosen successor: Jim Mora Jr. Mora Jr. was the Assistant Head Coach under Holmgren, just as Jim Caldwell was the Assistant (later, Associate) Head Coach under Tony Dungy. Mora Jr. is also the son of the man who preceded Tony Dungy as Colts head coach, Jim Mora Sr.
When Jim Mora Jr. took over the Seahawks, he started making his mark on the team much like Jim Caldwell did with our Colts. They brought in a new defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, who had spent the past three seasons working for Monte Kiffin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cadlwell made a similar move, replacing longtime defensive coordinator Ron Meeks with Larry Coyer, who worked with Bradley on Kiffin's staff last year in Tampa Bay. Once in Seattle, Bradley began installing a Tampa-2 style defense for the Seahawks after four years of blitz-style attacking defense from former-coordinator John Marshall.
Marshall was not retained because the 2008 Seahawks defense was a clinic on how not to win in the NFL.
Seattle's pass defense last season was the worst in the entire league. Seattle ranked 32 overall in pass defense, surrendering 259 yards a game, 7.7 yards a completion, and and astounding 25 passing TDs. QBs averaged a rating of 96 against the sea birds, and completed 64% of their passes for well over 4,000 yards.They also surrendered 11 passing plays of 40 yards or more.
Overall in 2008, the Seattle defense defense surrendered 24 points per game, ranked 25th overall in the NFL.
Pass defense like this is why the Seahawks only won four games in 2008. Though injuries and other factors played into Seattle's pass defense woes, you must still stop the pass to win in this league, even more so than the run. If you can't, you might as well not even take the field on Sunday.
Since the shift from a more blitz-happy defense to the Tampa-2, the Seahawks have surrendered an average of only 16 points per game. They have 9 sacks already (ranked 5th in the league), and only given up 1 pass play of over 40 yards. While their run defense has been a little sketchy, giving up 139 yards a game, the defense overall is conforming to classic Tampa-2 principles: Keep scoring low, don't give up big plays, and get to the QB with your front four. The Seahawks also rank high in DVOA and DAVE, with an impressive 9th overall ranking in pass defense.
Yet, despite the improvement is very key areas on defense, there is a definite and tangible lack of enthusiasm from Seahawks fans. For many, this game against our Colts is a strong test to see if their defense is indeed "for real." An opening week shutout of the St. Louis Rams is Seattle's only win thus far. Since then, they've been dominated by the 49ers and lost a heartbreaker last week against the Bears. However, in both their losses, it seems it was the offense's inability to generate points that did in the Seahawks. Part of the reason for this has been the health of their QB, Matt Hasselbeck, who broke a rib in the 49ers game two weeks ago.
Much like the Arizona Cardinals last week, this is an intriguing match-up for the Colts. The Seahawks run a West Coast-style offense, with slants and short passes getting more emphasis than running the ball (even though Seattle is averaging a respectable 112 yards a game on the ground with a 4.0 yards-per-carry average). With Colts defensive tornado Dwight Freeney likely out for this game, it will be interesting to see is the Seahawks single block the Colts DEs when they need to throw.
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1998 SI Scouting Reports
It's always really interesting to look back with hindsight (11 1/2 years in this case) at what the experts though about draft prospects.
Stampede Blue gets some sponsor love: Comcast Redzone
by BigBlueShoe
on Sep 30, 2009 8:32 AM EDT
in Horse Bucket
28 comments
I mentioned Comcast Redzone yesterday in the Luke Links so I could gauge how many of you Colts fans had Comcast. I also wanted to know whether those of you with Comcast purchased and liked their Redzone add-on. For many of the responders, Comcast seems to provide a good service, especially with them adding NFL Network for free to subscribers. Coltsfan58 offered a good (and funny) evaluation:
I have the Comcast digital package and sports package, so it’s Channel 271 for me. In fact, I’ll probably never watch the NFL Network except for actual games or NFL Films footage again, now that my ADD-addled mind can flit through red zone possessions in 6-9 ongoing games. That way, I can avoid hearing the NFL Network’s crappy announcers and only be exposed to hacks on Fox and CBS in small doses.
I found the last sentence of this review especially humorous.
I'm glad many of you have good experiences (for the most part) with Comcast because they are sponsoring Stampede Blue for the season. Comcast approached SB Nation because they were looking to get the word out about Comcast Redzone. Comcast knew the best way to reach hardcore NFL fans was through SB Nation blogs, which (when you really think about it) is very flattering. We've come a long way from where we were three years ago, when I was one of six NFL bloggers in this entire network.
Since Indianapolis is one of Comcast's subscription areas, it seemed a no-brainer to have them sponsor our blog for the year.
As many of you longtime readers know, I work very hard not to bombard you with insane, distracting advertising. You're here to read football, not sales pitches. While ads are a part of Internet life (because we all gotta make a living), there is a fine line between sponsorship and what I call "Infomercial-style blogging." So, just because Comcast is sponsoring us does not mean I will be bombarding you with marketing messages every day. But, I will remind you every once in a while about some of the great sports features available from Comcast, like Redzone. And with the reminders, I'll tie them into something pertaining to the team, such as stats and trends for the Colts redzone defense, which is a big point of emphasis for Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.
Also, I've got a special note: This weekend on Sunday, October 4th, Comcast is offering a free preview of NFL Red Zone this Sunday for the 1pm games. So, if you are curious about this add-on, this weekend is a good time to try it.
Plus, Comcast has stuff like On Demand content from the NFL Network including game recaps of every game, every week; draft profiles, player profiles, etc. So, if the NFL Network announcers don't annoy you as much as they annoy Coltsfan58, this extra bit of content is up your alley.
Special thanks to Comcast for sponsoring Stampede Blue and 18 other SB Nation NFL blogs. And, thanks to many of you for your honest reviews of Comcast in the Luke Links article yesterday.
A few other things Comcast has going on after the jump...
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AFC South Standings
| W | L | T | PF | PA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indianapolis
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 45 |
|
Jacksonville
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 69 |
|
Houston
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 65 | 86 |
|
Tennessee
|
0 | 3 | 0 | 58 | 71 |
(updated 9.29.2009 at 4:08 AM EDT)
Colts Schedule
|
Jacksonville
|
Sun 09/13 | W 14 - 12 |
|
@
Miami
|
Mon 09/21 | W 27 - 23 |
|
@
Arizona
|
Sun 09/27 | W 31 - 10 |
|
Seattle
|
Sun 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT |
|
@
Tennessee
|
Sun 10/11 | 8:20 PM EDT |
|
@
St. Louis
|
Sun 10/25 | 1:00 PM EDT |
|
San Francisco
|
Sun 11/01 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
Houston
|
Sun 11/08 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
New England
|
Sun 11/15 | 8:20 PM EST |
|
@
Baltimore
|
Sun 11/22 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
@
Houston
|
Sun 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
Tennessee
|
Sun 12/06 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
Denver
|
Sun 12/13 | 1:00 PM EST |
|
@
Jacksonville
|
Thu 12/17 | 8:20 PM EST |
|
New York Jets
|
Sun 12/27 | 4:15 PM EST |
|
@
Buffalo
|
Sun 01/03 | 1:00 PM EST |
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
