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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, October 09, 2009

Psst… wanna work for, uh, some unnamed MLB team?

By Tangotiger, 02:26 PM

Current whipping-boy Joe Sheehan says to email with your answer to this question:

If you had access to all of the information available to a major league team - both public and proprietary data, such as scouting reports, training reports, video, etc - what question(s) would you attempt to answer with that data? How would you go about that process? What potential problems do you foresee?

The correct answer must always have to do with trying to figure out the underlying true talent level of the player.  If, for example, you are considering acquiring Franklin Gutierrez, you need to know, really, how good a fielder he is, how good a hitter he really is, and how likely all that will persist in the next 3-5 years.  So, when you answer, think in terms of true talent levels, because that’s all we really care about in the end.

Clutch players of 2009

By Tangotiger, 01:00 PM

Congratulations Ryan Howard!  Howard, already a great hitter (+3.4 situational wins as a hitter), bumped it up to +6.0 wins when you considered the inning and score.  The anti-clutch hitter was a tight race, but I’ll go with the D’Backs Chris Young.  He already was having a bad season, and his performance in clutch situations made him even worse.

(0) Comments • • SabermetricsClutch

Theo Fleury

By Tangotiger, 12:48 PM

Fleury, who once told a reporter “I’m not saying I was, and I’m not saying I wasn’t” is now saying: He was.

“You try to understand, you know, what’s going on but you know, you’re so afraid, you know. You’re so afraid that, you know, if I tell somebody what’s going to happen to my hockey career, you know what I mean,” Fleury told CBC’s The Fifth Estate in an interview set to air on Oct. 16. “Because I was so focused on, on you know, getting out of Russell [Manitoba], you know. I was so focused on that that I was probably willing to do whatever it took to, you know, to make it. And ah yeah, it was a scary time, scary time. And you know, very confused about the whole situation,” Fleury said. Wally Fleury, Theoren’s father, told CBC News he suspected something was wrong with his son, and that the boy was struggling with drug and alcohol abuse, but he never knew why. “He never mentioned anything about Graham James, but through Sheldon Kennedy, we knew he had to be involved too,” said Wally Fleury, who still lives in Russell.

It was clear that Fleury was.  We knew that there was an NHL player involved, and was a teammate of Kennedy in juniors.  The list of potential players was a tiny handful.  Add in Fleury’s substance abuse issues, and it became a given.  The “was / wasn’t” line sealed it.  What’s fascinating is how all journalists respected Fleury’s right to privacy on the matter for 25 years. 

Fleury was also a polarizing figure, hated by fans of the opposing team, because of his combative personality (unlike say his polar opposite Joe Sakic).  As a fan, do you feel a little shameful for hating him because of terrifying episodes that contributed to his (to some) unappealing personality?

(0) Comments • • Other SportsHockey

Help high school students

By Tangotiger, 11:37 AM

As an 8th grade teacher, I have to teach an elective class about something I am interested in. I have decide to teach a course about popular baseball misconceptions and objective analysis. I enjoyed reading “The Book”, but it’s probably a little deep for 8th graders. I want to help them understand basic concepts like “RBI and W-L record should not determine the MVP and Cy Young. I wonder if you have any suggestions....Any advice would be greatly appreciated by me and my students.

I’d say some combination of the old Baseball Abstracts, The Hidden Game of Baseball, and BPro’s Between the Numbers.

Perhaps Eric Seidman’s Bridging the Statistical Gap?

(10) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsBooks

Reader question of the day

By Tangotiger, 10:54 AM

I have a hypothetical situation I’ve been pondering. Since you’re much smarter than I, I was hoping you could take a crack at it.... I’m a Twins fan, and a bit frustrated with Bill Smith’s performance as a GM so far (mainly the Matt Garza deal). Watching the Red Sox - Angels game tonight, I couldn’t help wishing that Theo Epstein was our GM. So it got me thinking, what would I trade to have Theo be the GM of the Twins? Is there a way to quantify who would be the best player a team should give up to acquire a GM? Thanks.

It wouldn’t be so hard, as it would be complex.  The process is similar to the other WOWY (with or without you) processes.  I would guess that if a team has decided to go with one kind of GM (a saber-savvy one), then of those in the pool, how much of a win gain are we talking about?  3 wins of efficiency the first year?  2 the second?  1 the third?  Maybe a total of 7 in a 5-yr time period?  That’s an MVP.  Or it should cost you about $30 MM.  But, how good are we at finding such a talented GM?  Is Epstein that guy? 

Suppose that a replacement-level saber-savvy GM costs 2MM$ a year.  If you pay Epstein 5MM$ a year for 10 years (all discounted to today’s dollars), there’s your 30MM$.

So, I guess I’ll go with that, that the market has probably already figured out how much to properly pay a GM.  (I made up all my numbers.  Are they reasonable? )

(8) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsMLB_Management

1975/76 Reds: Peaking in talent

By Tangotiger, 09:57 AM

Justin shows us how the Reds players peaked at just the right time:

I’d imagine you would get something similar with the late 70s Canadiens, early 80s Islanders, and mid-80s Oilers.  Easy for me to say, since each won 4 Stanley Cups in no more than a 5-yr time period.

Clutch skill DOES exist

By Tangotiger, 09:29 AM

JC argues against:

Identifying clutch hitting is practical problem that requires a decision involving real costs. Should a team factor in clutch ability when choosing between free agents. Should it matter for the manager choosing among pinch hitters? Should a historically big-game pitcher start the playoff series over your regular season ace? Based on the available evidence, if I had to decide between Jeter or A-Rod it’s not even close: Alex Rodriguez is a far superior player to Derek Jeter, and that’s what is relevant.

Actually, clutch hitting is mostly something for fans to talk about themselves.  It is NOT a practical problem that teams rely on.  To the extent that it is, if teams behave the way fans believe, then the tradeoff is .020 in wOBA.  That is similar to the tradeoff in the platoon advantage.  And when I asked Yankee fans who they wanted, they did choose Jeter over ARod.  And when I did this for all 30 teams, asking if they prefer the better hitter or the clutchier hitter, they chose the clutchier hitter with a wOBA of 20 points worse than the better hitter.  They were (partly) exonerated when I tracked their decision and the clutchier hitter ended up 10 points worse than the better hitter.  That is, they did in fact perform better than expected, but not good enough to overcome the gap in talent.  (That study did not show a statistically significant difference, even though it was based on nearly 2000 clutch PA.)

Anyway, as for actually finding a clutch skill, Andy did in fact find it, and the results are published in The Book.  On p.103:

Batters perform slightly differently when under pressure. About one in six players increases his inherent “OBP skill” by eight points or more in high-pressure situations; a comparable number of players decreases it by eight points or more.

But as Andy concludes later on p.108:

For all practical purposes, a player can be expected to hit equally well in the clutch as he would be expected to do in an ordinary situation.

And the reason is as Andy noted on the previous page:

...that normalizing factor of 7600 clutch plate appearances is simply too large to ever predict a specific player to have a significant clutch hitting skill. Put differently, the fact that one of three players performs at least .006 [wOBA] better or worse in the clutch doesn’t mean that we can tell which players have this skill, even when looking at several seasons’ worth of data.

So, the entire problem rests on the fact that the hitting talent in MLB is so narrow to begin with, and that even though we have determined that clutch skill exists in that population of players, it is simply too hard to identify the specific players that it makes any practical difference.

To conclude: yes, clutch skill exists.  No, it’s not that big a deal (at best, half as wide as than the platoon advantage).  Correct, teams should not rely on clutch skill in their decision-making process, other than as a tie-breaker.

Ass-slap: Repoz.

(4) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsClutch

Thursday, October 08, 2009

What’s Matt Holliday’s problem?

By Tangotiger, 01:48 PM

A reader said this:

Check Holliday’s AB in the first inning. He was clearly thrown 5 balls and 3 of them were called strikes. I’m impartial to the game but ...  The game would have been a lot different had that strike zone been an average MLB strike zone for that PA.

MGL decided to roll up his sleeves (post 3 of same thread):

OK, I watched the video of that AB very carefully. ... Pitch 3

A little better than pitch 1.  Not a pitch trax strike. Some umpires, maybe most, call that a strike.  DeMuth usually calls that a ball.  Didn’t miss by much, maybe 1 or 2 inches.  Not a “bad” call.

Pitch 4

Almost exactly the same as pitch 3.  Not a strike according to Pitch Trax, but close.  I think that DeMuth is forced to call it a strike because he called pitch 3 a strike, to be honest, and they were almost exactly the same pitch.

Pitch 5

Ditto pitch 4.

All 3 of those pitches were a little out of character for DeMuth, but I think he got trapped into calling the last 2 strikes because of the first strike.  In general, they were NOT terrible or even bad calls. Probably half (maybe more) of all umpires call those same pitches strikes.

Then Peter (post 5 same thread) rolled up his sleeves and looked at all pitches that were similarly thrown:

Pitch 3 crossed the plate with a px of -.951, Pitch 4 at -.956 and Pitch 5 at -.917.  These are probably the most difficult pitch locations for any umpire to call from a left handed pitcher.  ... I looked at all the pitches for August 2009. There were 123 pitches from left handers where the umpire had to make a ball or strike call and the pitch was between -.957 and -.916 and also had a pz in the batters strike zone.  43 of those pitches were called balls and 80 were called strikes. Holliday should not have been taking those pitches.

This was easily my favorite thread of the past few weeks.  A reader said something about “clearly out of strike zone” pitches.  MGL looks at the actual pitches via video replay and makes his assessment, using his knowledge.  And then Peter verifies it by looking at actual data from the last 123 similarly thrown pitches.

I love this sh!t.

(14) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsBall_Tracking

4th down, on the 32 yard line: FG or punt: does it matter if it’s 4th and short or 4th and long

By Tangotiger, 01:26 PM

Apparently, it does!

For example, when kicking on 4th and 1 from the 32, coaches went for the FG 100% of the time. But when kicking on 4th and long (7+ yds) from the 32, coaches went for the FG less often--80% of the time.... It’s as if teams with 4th and short feel like they came so close that they really want to come away from the drive with points. And teams with 4th and long feel more resigned to giving up the hope for points, preferring to pin the opponent deep in his own territory.

The only other thing I’d say is to look at the quality of teams (off and def).  But, those numbers seem pretty damning.

(28) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsIn-game_StrategyOther SportsFootball

When it comes to baseball, all reason goes away

By Tangotiger, 09:58 AM

This time, I’m on the lawyer’s side:

I think that it’s about who had lawful ownership and rights to keep and retrieve that baseball. But it probably says something, Melissa, does it not, that the day I filed the lawsuit, the Phillies voluntarily and willingly returned the baseball to her. And your hard questions should be directed towards the Phillies’ team representative, who said to young Jennifer: Here, Jennifer, take this other baseball, which is worth next to nothing, and we’ll take the one worth thousands of dollars. That’s the question that should be asked here.
...BLOCK: That was lawyer Norm Kent of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. We did make repeated calls to the Phillies. They declined to comment on this story.

I can only imagine the Phillies general counsel going into conniptions here when he first heard this story (which I can only presume and hope is when the lawsuit was filed).  I think all lawyers see this situation for what it is: an adult striking a deal with a child, without parental consent, or even supervision.  The Phillies should be ashamed of themselves for doing what they did, and putting the girl in the position they did.  They know the public is on their side because of the “purity” and “virginity” of baseball, that how dare someone, outside of MLB, profit from something MLB-generated.

If the law was that a HR ball belongs to MLB, then fine, get Congress to pass that law.  Until then, the HR ball belonged to the girl.  At that point, you can’t get an adult to negotiate with her for her ball, any more than they can negotiate for her shoes or purse or jacket.  Jennifer Valdivia is 100% right, and anyone against her is simply wrong.

The Phillies should do the right thing and publicly apologize to her, and taking the full blame.  They were as wrong as Serena Williams was in berating the linesperson.

UPDATE: I was wrong about the Phillies’ attorney:

Kent said he quickly told Phillies attorneys he wanted the ball returned before the season ended or he would file suit. The initial counter offer, the suit said, was for tickets to a Phillies-Marlins game.

(18) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsMLB_Management

Does Molina instead of Posada make much difference?

By , 03:49 AM

There is some controversy over who should catch when Burnett pitches for the Yankees.  Girardi said that Molina will get the call.  Molina is one of the worst hitters in baseball.  Posada is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball (not named Mauer).  There is a gigantic swing between the two.  Having Molina in the lineup rather than Posada is equivalent to taking Mauer out of the MIN lineup, which would get you executed in Minnesota, right?

But, does it really make that much difference to the Yankees’ chances of winning the game?  First of all, Molina is much the better defensive catcher I assume (would Molina even have an MLB job if he wasn’t excellent defensively?).  Also, he is going to bat 9th and thus only get 2 or 3 PA before he is replaced with a pinch hitter if the Yankees are losing or if Burnett comes out of the game.  In addition, Posada becomes available to pinch hit for anyone (although most of the Yankee starters are pinch-hit proof).

Anyway, I ran both players through my sim.  Although my sim does pinch-hitting, I think it probably lets Molina bat for most, if not all, of the game.  I’m not sure about that. Plus, it does not fully include catcher defense, like pitch blocking (which I think Posada is terrible at).  Oh, and Posada is still playing hurt right now, which I included in the sim.  I knocked him down a notch or two, although he is still way better offensively than Molina.

The results:  With Posada (batting 7th), Yankees score 6.17, allow 4.18 rpg and win 72.15% of the time, in 100,000 games.  With Molina (batting 9th), they score 5.85, allow 4.05 rpg and win 71.33% of the time.

Given the limitations of the sim which I just mentioned, and the possibility that Burnett actually pitches better with Molina behind the plate, I think it is a wash at worst.  Nothing to get in a huff about if you are a Yankee fan.

(3) Comments • 2009/10/08 • SabermetricsBatting_Order

STL/LAD game blunders

By , 01:59 AM

Almost none!  With all the activity in that game, there were virtually no blunders by either manager or the players.  There was one pretty large one which we see managers do (inexplicably to me) all the time and when they do it it is very costly.  I’ll give you guys a few seconds to guess what I am talking about…

Top of the 6th, Carpenter, who had already thrown almost 100 pitches (and not very well), was due up with a runner on 2nd and 2 outs versus a tough (platoon-wise) righty pitcher in Weaver.  The Cardinals were down 3-2. That is a clear-cut, no-brainer, pinch hit situation.  Not even close.  Carpenter was going to pitch one more inning at the most.

The announcers (who are actually pretty good, as announcers go) kept saying that LaRussa was hoping that Carpenter would get to bat in that inning so that if they had to take him out in the bottom of the 6th, they wouldn’t have to do a double switch.  That made no sense of course.  If you were preparing to possibly take him out in the 6th (which was likely unless he breezed through the inning), then obviously you don’t let him bat.  Letting a pitcher bat with 2 outs and runners on base usually costs .2 run or more.  One inning of Carpenter pitching as opposed to a reliever does not save nearly .2 runs of course.  Even if it did, you still pinch hit because you are down in the game and you need offense, not defense.  IOW, one run added on offense is worth more than one run saved on defense when you are down in a game.

Anyway, managers make that mistake (and it is usually a very costly one as in-game strategy mistakes go) all the time - even in the post-season.  Why should LaRussa be any different?

Let’s see…

I didn’t watch the beginning of the first inning (I guess no one did unless there was another feed other than TBS) but I assume that IBB’ing Pujols was a mistake.  Maybe not.  And Joe Torre playing Belliard rather than Hudson was Torre playing his usual “hot hand” strategy.  That was clearly a mistake I assume, although I have not looked at the numbers.  I think that Hudson is a better defender and a much better hitter versus a RHP.  Sure enough Belliard was about the only Dodger who looked foolish against Carpenter.

In the 9th inning with Ludwick on second base and that bloop hit to center field that got by Kemp, the announcer remarked that Kemp was playing deep.  Of course since the batter’s run is meaningless Kemp should be playing very shallow as a double or triple is virtually the same thing as a single, so your defense should be minimizing baserunners with no regard for whether they are singles or extra base hits.

Other than that and the 30 runners LOB, it was a pretty routine game.  If you watch a lot of games, you would also have noticed that DeMuth has one of the smallest strike zones in baseball if not THE smallest.  That was one reason for all the base runners.  For no particular reason, there were a ton of pitches just off the zone in that game, that most umpires other than DeMuth would have called strikes.  Gotta give him credit though.  Other than a few breaking pitches and one or two fastballs, if the pitch was not in the zone, at least according to the Pitch Trax, he did not call it a strike.  He was very consistent and pitchers were not complaining because of that consistency (and probably because they already knew his zone is tight).

(12) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsIn-game_Strategy

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Dinara Safina

By Tangotiger, 04:42 PM

Dinara Safina is the sister of Marat Safin.  As Poz noted, Safina is ranked as number 1.  Poz sounded perplexed that someone could be number 1 without ever actually winning something major.  As big brother, and former number 1 himself, noted:

Safin pointed out that his sister, who has reached 15 finals in the past 12 months and won seven of them, was not the one to make up the rules and pleaded: “She didn’t do the ranking. Deal with that. Leave her alone.”

So, that’s that.  Don’t hate the player, hate the game.  But, Poz also wondered “who is she?”.  I thought that it was interesting that Safina and Safin had similar names.  How could they be brother-sister?  Poz never brought up Safin, and I figured he didn’t make the connection.  I asked my wife about it one time, and she said that in Russia, the girls add the letter “a” to the end of their surname.  So, that’s why you have SharapovA and KournikovA.  And that’s how Safin and SafinA are brother-sister.  Anyway, I find the culture of others interesting in this regard.

(13) Comments • 2009/10/08 • Other Sports

What are the chances that the Nats win the World Series, if they were already in the playoffs?

By Tangotiger, 04:38 PM

Patriot gives them 100:1 odds, when the average is 7:1 (8 playoff teams, one winner):

Suppose that for some reason the Phillies’ place in the playoffs (including seeding--obviously they would actually play the Dodgers and not the Rockies, but that’s besides the point) was taken by the Nationals. What would the probabilities look like in that case? Washington was last in the majors with a crude strength estimate of .408--plugging that in produces these results: ... Washington has a 1% chance to win the World Series given these assumptions.

(19) Comments • 2009/10/08 • SabermetricsTalent_Distribution

Most exciting games, quantified - discussions

By Tangotiger, 02:20 PM

Here are a few threads that you may find interesting:

Dennis at HardballTimes.

Original Fangraphs discussion.

Then a followup also at Fangraphs.

Those are all good reads, and I think everyone here will get positive from at least one of them.

(8) Comments • 2009/10/08 • SabermetricsRun_Win_Expectancy

Rob Neyer on Brad Lidge and the COL/PHI series

By , 01:29 PM

From his blog yesterday:

Yes, Lidge converted 18 of his last 23 save opportunities. His other statistics in that space: 32 innings, 18 walks, 33 strikeouts, four home runs, 6.68 ERA. Granted, he’s not pitched quite as poorly as his ERA (but then, how could he have?). But if Brad Lidge were instead a kid pitcher named Fred Bridge, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the Division Series roster right now, let alone asked to throw late-inning playoff pitches with the game on the line.

On paper, I like the Phillies in this series, mostly because they’ve got Cliff Lee and because they’re the home team. But the Rockies are just about as good as the Phillies, so if they really do get to face Brad Lidge once or twice with the game on the line, they’re going to win. Which is why I’m picking them in five games. Or maybe four.

Let me say a few things:

I don’t think that the Rockies are “just about as good as the Phillies” as baseball matchups go.  The Phillies are a 61% favorite to win the series in Vegas and I think that is a little generous to the Rockies who, in my opinion, have vastly over-performed this year.

As far as Lidge goes, again, Mr. Neyer inundates us with 32 IP of performance with nary a word about Lidge’s other 497 IP.  He could just as easily have re-written the above first two sentences as:

Yes, Lidge converted only 18 of his last 23 save opportunities. However, his career statistics: 529 IP, 3.56 ERA, 239 BB, 714 K, and only 51 HR.

And if he really wanted to make the exact opposite point (how great Lidge is going to be in the post-season), he easily could have said this:

Yes, Lidge converted only 18 of his last 23 save opportunities during the regular season. However, his career in the post-seasons is this: 34 IP, 2.10 ERA, 12 BB, 51 K, and only 2 HR.

Heck, that’s more innings than he has pitched this year!

The reason that he is on the post-season roster and may pitch in high leverage situations - maybe even close a game or two - is NOT because his name is Brad Lidge as opposed to Fred Bridge.  It is because he has been an outstanding reliever over the course of his career and the Phillies brass are smart enough to realize that those career stats are more predictive of how he is likely to do in the post-season than his 32 IP in 2009.

Now, I’ll fully admit that Lidge is likely not nearly as good as he used to be if for no other reason than his velocity is severely down the last 2 years.  But all the Lidge bashing by Neyer and others reminds me of the Lidge bashing after 2007 (and the 2006 post-season).  Somehow he comes back in 2008 with the best season of his career.

And I honestly have no idea what this means:

“...so if they really do get to face Brad Lidge once or twice with the game on the line, they’re going to win.”

(6) Comments • 2009/10/07

Nate McLouth v Joe Sheehan

By Tangotiger, 10:40 AM

Looks like the blogosphere is all a-twitter regarding Joe Sheehan saying:

Nate McLouth is still a fourth OF masquerading as a starting CF.

First up is Colin Wyers who looks at BPro’s own metrics, as well as Fangaphs, and concludes that McLouth is at least an overall average player. Colin also links to JC, who also concludes he’s at least an overall average player.  Then there’s the Primates, who either agree that McLouth is a starting MLB OF, or think that Sheehan doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

What say I?  Coming into 2009, I had McLouth as a 2.5 WAR player.  That put him 30th in MLB for all outfielders.  Basically, if you are a 1.5 WAR player (or better), you are a starting player in MLB.  To relegate McLouth as a 4th outfielder is ridiculous.

What’s the breakdown on McLouth? 
Offense: he’s a .351 career wOBA hitter, and was .350 in 2009.  That puts him as +1 to +1.5 wins per 162G as a hitter.
Fielding: UZR has him as -0.5 to -1.0 wins per 162G in CF.  WOWY has him as -0.5 wins.  The Fans have him ranked as 44th out of 50 centerfielders.  Not terrible, but pretty much on the border of “get this guy to the corners, soon”.  Say that’s -1 wins.  So, that’s a pretty good consensus. 
Position: +0.25 wins for being a CF

Overall, that makes him a +0.5 wins above average player.  We are all in agreement here.  And remember,if you are 0.5 wins BELOW average, you are STILL a MLB starting outfielder (on the cusp of being a 4th outfielder).  Basically, Joe shot his mouth off, and he should simply retract his statement.

(28) Comments • 2009/10/09 • SabermetricsLinear_Weights

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

A few observations from the DET/MIN game today…

By , 09:50 PM

1) Chip Caray is an embarrasment to broadcasting.

2) Randy Marsh, the home plate umpire, is in fact one of the best hitters’ umpires (small strike zone), yet his call against Polanco on the inside breaking pitch with runners on 1 and 3rd with 0 outs, was really bad.

3) Granderson, one of the smartest players in baseball (or at least one of the most articulate), makes a basic, Little League, baserunning blunder in that same inning.

4) Casilla did NOT make a baserunning blunder on the tag from third, as Darling was harping on for the rest of the game.  If that ball drops in front of the left fielder, he has to be off the bag a little in order to be able to score.  He COULD have gone right back to the bag, but let’s just say that it was not a clear blunder.

5) I did not see the attempted shoe string catch that led to the triple.

6) With the bases loaded and that chopper to second base, there is NO way any player in baseball should get thrown out at home on the force.  If you watch the replay, it looks as if Cabrera assumed there would be no throw home and was not running hard, nor did he get a good jump, both being inexcusable.

7) I am not sure why Leland would issue the IBB to the RHB in the 12th with 1 out, when there is very little chance (I assume) of the DP with the lefty Casilla at the plate.  Leland is generally a bad manager in my opinion.

8) I don’t know exactly who was going to be available from the pen, but it seemed curious to me that Leland brought Zach Miner into the game in a fairly high leverage situation. He is basically a replacement level reliever and should only be used in low leverage situations and emergencies.  Does Leland think he is better than he likely is?  His one year stats are not particularly good, so I don’t see why he would think he is any better than a journeyman.

9) Should Leyland have used Rodney for so many batters/innings?  He was clearly tired and lost 3-5 mph on his fastball and was throwing a lot of breaking pitches.  Was there another, better option in the pen? I don’t know.

Edit:  Adding one thing I forgot until now.

10) With the base loaded and 2 outs and a 3-2 count on Laird.  You know how the pitch f/x research indicates that batters swing at WAY too many pitches out of the zone on a 3-2 count?  Well, Laird swings at a fastball down at his ankles.  It was not like it was a high fastball that looked good or a breaking pitch when he was looking fastball.  He simply swung at a low fastball that he would likely easily take at a 3-1, 2-1 or 2-0 count.  Afraid to be rung up I guess.  Really bad decision.  Any major league hitter should be able to recognize that as a ball.

(51) Comments • 2009/10/08 • SabermetricsIn-game_Strategy

Catcher’s strikeout rate

By Tangotiger, 04:37 PM

Jerry Crasnick:

According to Baseball-reference.com, Burnett has struck out 79 of 434 batters while pitching to Posada this season. Opponents are hitting .270 against Burnett and have a .775 OPS when Posada is his catcher.

In contrast, Burnett has struck out 77 of 288 batters while throwing to Molina. Opposing hitters have a .221 batting average and a .658 OPS against Burnett when he’s working with Molina.

Presuming that the quality of opposition is the same, we have a K rate of 18.2% with Posada and 26.7% with Molina.  Figure an average of 350 PA.  Burnett has a career K rate of 21.9%.  One standard deviation, given 21.9% as the true rate and 350 sample PA is .022 K per PA.  That puts Posada and Molina at roughly 2 SD from the mean (each going the other way, obviously).  (The real numbers are 1.9 SD for Posada, and 2.4 for Molina.)

Again all other things equal, we see that Molina is the better catcher for Burnett.  We can presume a non-zero difference.  We CANNOT presume the actual observed performance.

Glove-slap: Michael

Poll: How certain do you want to be that your team will make the playoffs in 2010?

By Tangotiger, 03:26 PM

Note that there is a cost to everything.  A typical team, if they want the same success expectations as the Yankees, will have to spend more money than they have, give up more prospects than they want to, and pretty much mortgage the future to guarantee the present.

I think we all recognize that when 8 out of 30 teams make the playoffs (29% in the AL, 25% in the NL), that we want a competitive team, but that we are not necessarily prepared to pay to get a guaranteed playoff team.  So, this is what the question is about.

What are your REASONABLE expectations (which presupposes a reasonable mortgaging of future and/or reasonable overspending of present)?


(16) Comments • 2009/10/07 • SabermetricsPoll
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